Member Info for aprogerson

So that is 2x 10m +1x6m +1x5m delayed unknown trades today which if you check the timestamps all look like sells, but I could be wrong. Difficult to believe that these could be separate entities but again I could easily be wrong. We have 1,824,978,590 shares in issue according to AGM Notice on GCAT website so 31m is 1.7% of this figure and an even higher % of free float given how many shares are locked up.

I can only hope that whoever IS doing the selling gets it over and done with sooner rather than later as this is getting tedious!
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Has anyone thought that whoever this 'entity' is that with current market that they may have liquidity issues and just REALLY need the money as the lower this goes the more they seem to be selling which seems counter-intuitive to me?

Also don't forget POG is now $1,820 which cannot be helping
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@godwilling That was at M4 Copper and drilling stopped because on winter onset and water used for cooling drill bit was freezing ... Oct 2018 I think ?? Trying to drill into Diorite at several hundred meters length didn't help much either
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Investor recording & Presentation now available on ARC website http://www.arcminerals.com/home/default.aspx

I share your frustration ... not helped at all by very weak POG and strong Dollar. Let's hope that Q1 Operational report and DD assays land soon now that second HL pad is underway
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@Edgar If only they could get the tailings production going and start bringing in some revenue then the downside risk drops away considerably especially at £4.65m MCap
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We know 'Cash Costs' were $860/ounce production and Robbie stated AISC as $1,000 to $1,050 implying Admin and sustaining cost of maintaining exploration at Kilimapesa costs an additional $140 to $190/ounce. This also says to me that when Kilimapesa production doubles to 2koz then cost will NOT double so both Cash Cost and AISC will drop as fixed costs spread over more ounces produced.

Remember spend from production free-cashflow and capital from RTO/cashraise is not included in Kilimapesa AISC and is being reinvested by BoD in delivering Phase 3 upgrades and future growth via acquisition, expansion drilling, new mine development et al.
All good
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@headder There is some VERY intelligent Fundamental & Technical Analysis out there, but I particularly like Andrew Maguire from LFTV and Patrick Karim from Northstar Badcharts.
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@headder If you check POG in almost any other currency than the US$ then POG is at worst level or up as fiat purchasing power is declining faster than the US$ which is typically where investor go to when the market corrects as it is so liquid. Unfortunately Gold also gets treated as cash and is also liquidated when things get rough reinforcing POG weakness. If check back POG drops and then usually rises fast after such events as CBs become more accommodative to support their battered markets.

For me I simply watch what CBs are doing NOT what they are saying and CBs are heavily buying and repatriating gold because it has no counter-party risk and they control it as part of their own reserves ... currently this is not widely understood or appreciated but this could change very fast. Just look at what Turkey did in the last few weeks asking their population to hand in their gold. Why did Russia start selling all its US$ reserves after it invaded Crimea and use it to buy so much gold if it has minimal value.

IMHO gold and particularly silver is currently on sale and paper contracts are being actively used to suppress price discovery which is why it is currently so difficult to buy physical gold/silver and if you can the spreads are just huge.

I like producer/developers like GCAT because you can buy multi-Moz future production at a $3 to $5/ounce in the ground now into a rising future POG at modest production costs so is very highly geared to POG.
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@Gbavt Perhaps not so surprising as NvS is also a Director at Orosur AIM:OMI and the deal is similarly structured with cash payments over Earn-In period with Major albeit Asset there is gold with Newmont/Agnico working JV in partnership
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@Predator If it's any consolation my average is 1.14p so you beat me .... and I thought I had done well !
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@Steve You might want to take a look at Gunsynd (AIM:GUN) which is a well-run low cost Aussie investment fund with £1m cash and £3m MCap trading at around 50% NAV if you want to spread your risk especially as it is predominantly resource focused featuring good chunks of Junior Explorer/Developers Charger Metals (Aussie lithium), Rincon Resources (Aussie, Telfer/Paterson gold/copper), Pacific Nickel and Eagle Mountain Mining (US Gold). They also have a big chunk of London listed Rogue Baron if you fancy a tipple!

DYOR of course, but I am invested in GUN and also directly in Rincon!
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@Steve depends on your risk appetite! Both are on my Watchlist and my take is:
(1) OMI is South American Exploration/Development play who are in JV with Newmont/Agnico currently drilling up their relative high-grade licences for an Earn-In whilst paying OMI cash to cover their Admin costs as they also have no revenue. SP now a quarter of where they were a year ago but of course they have had a years more drilling done
(2) WSBN is Aussie based, Paterson range Junior Exploration play near NCMs Telfer mine and is looking to find something analogous to GGPs Haverion find under 150m+ barren cover. WSBN has no revenue to fund future exploration. SP is just half what it was a year ago

IMHO I like OMI better due to the JV plus one of the Directors there is Nick Von Shirning who is also Director of ARC Minerals that signed a very similar structured JV with AAL for their Zambian copper project yesterday ... so I am biased!
DYOR and all that but I still prefer GCAT over both of those plays
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@legalWolf It's way more likely that the general market sell off that is hammering almost everything else including POG @$1,802 is the cause especially as shorting small caps is probably really only practical via spread betting or similar and requires a large margin for us PIs.
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@careful Given NvS mentioned CE and Muswema as likely AAL drilling targets on 825km2 Zambian licences it seems very likely that ALL is targeting at least 1x Tier 1 resource and possibly 2 given what we know to date.

How many secondary resources might also be picked out as this progresses as possible satellite mines providing ore to one or more processing facilities ? Volsey Bay comes to mind
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@Redroy Interesting as Hummingbirds Kouroussa new mine build in Guinea is also 100-120koz target gold production targeting H2 2023 first gold pour & funded by a $100 loan from Cora development bank at 8% with a 1 year repayment delay from mine start-up. This loan required no equity or royalty stream clause that I can remember and my understanding is that the full $100m is unlikely to be needed.

Bottom line is decent well structured debt funding deals are available in Africa from African Development banks for African mines. HUM is a circa 65koz producer so not unreasonable that GCAT can scale up quickly and/or strike a similar deal given this is HUMs 2nd deal with Cora as the 1st one was on similar terms when it was just an Explorer with no production !
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NvS clearly chuffed and John Meyer also chimed in similar positive views in terms of size and impact. Key Takeaways:
> NvS confirmed goal was to develop T1 mine deposit ASAP
> Mentioned John Wood video from Sentinel 'missing Copper'
> compared ARCs $3-4m/year drill budget versus AAL minimum $10m/year drill budget equivalent to ARC spend to date
> Senior geologists on site from this weekend
> Remy stated unprecedented scale of deal with AAL
> Zambian government supported deal with President at Indaba conference !
> All historical data shared with AAL
> AAL wanted 70% to ensure operational control maintained from outset but clear they need to perform to retain this %share
> NvS view that CE and Muswema will be main focus
> Controller & Operator will be AAL & JV representation at board with 2 of 5 directors
> All Zambian assets except 6km2 Kalaba mine licence will be in JV from outset
> NvS very positive of working relationship between ARC and AAL from outset
> NvS stated that Botswana likely target for ARC new cash, but early days yet. Clear from later comment that will not be SOLE focus
> ARC have been approached by other prospective but modest Zambian assets to consider
> NvS stated Kapore also keen and will pay their share of drill costs going forward
> WS Ireland put out research note already and JM likely to follow
> ARC not liable for drill or exploration costs as free-carry for 7 years unless AAL accelerate spend which NvS expects that they will
> Will AAL buy ARC out? Agreement at JV level not at ARC level whilst ARC retain meaningful stake
> How would you value ARC now? Remy example JV is Sentinel NPV $5B+ asset value or similar mine in DRC so 30% is very meaningful if "motherlode" is hit
> Drill depth targeted? upto AAL but probably deeper than ARC drilling to date
> Local chief supportive? Yes very as area is poor and underdeveloped
> Road status? ARC already improving roads as part of CSR initiative near to our licence area using local workforce
> Joint ESG? will be up to AAL as ALL liability
> Further exploration opportunities ... absolutely on the table
> CASA deal in DRC? All on track for cash and shares with good progress/intent to date ... serious player now progressing!
> Final thoughts? thanks shareholders & outstanding outcome ... just paperwork to conclude & acknowledge excellent partner in AAL

My observation:
(1) NvS is also director at OMI which this deal is very similar to and NvS acknowledged this deal as well
(2) Cracking webchat and very, very positive
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@Shorn Sadly I do remember .... Just glad you took the plunge and stayed the distance.

Call just started and 182 attendees and counting
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@PGTips IMHO the 90 days DD and other 'holding' periods are standard commercial periods added into such deals as is the UPTO delineating the maximum extend of the Earn-In periods. AAL have already completed their DD in the 18m Exclusivity period and the legal cases previously outstanding have now been concluded = All systems Go

Dry season for drilling will arrive in Zambia very shortly and I'm expecting that AAL will want to push on at pace with multiple drill rig teams at multiple sites given what everyone strongly suspects is under our licence areas.
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@F29 Agreed I'd much rather have 30% of a £500m++ asset and $14.5m cash in the bank to develop my other assets than a £50m asset with no cash to develop it (or anything else) without selling equity and diluting myself to fund it.
Simples !
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