Member Info for aprogerson

@Hargreave That's the conclusion I'd come to after the last RM interview and the additional director buys, but it is good to get the confirmation that this is not a 'choice' but a function of a lengthy administrative process ... and THEN a choice can be made giving the BoD plenty of time to source alternative funding streams for any new mine at Nyakafuru.
ATB APR

From my 11-Jun-22 post ...
Contested Licence Area:
Docs also show a 6sqkm contested rectangular licence area of Callwell as licence area granted by government in Aug-2008 to Bao Gold Hill (Kenya)Ltd Ref: Pl/2018/0072 details in GoldPlat Annual Report 2010 showing as unresolved. Ref p8 of https://cmsignition.co.za/download/files_1428/GoldplatReportandAccounts2018.pdf
"In October 2017 management were advised of an application for an exploration licence over an area in the Kilimapesa exploration licence. An objection was lodged and numerous meetings have been held with officials from the Ministry of Mining and the Licensing Authority, including the Cabinet Secretary (Minister of Mines). Despite meeting with the Cabinet Secretary, it is unclear as to the exact status of this application and the Company is taking legal advice on the best way to proceed."

Outside Granted Licence Area:
Areas outside our current exploration licence called Blue Ray, Natingile, Alpha Ray and Red Ray keep being referred to, but it is not clear the current status of this area which is especially odd as Natingile is referred to in SMR above but shown outside PL0189.

It looks like Red & Alpha Ray are OUTSIDE our PL0189 Exploration licence but the Q1'22 presentation P15 says... "This comprises the Kilimapesa Hill and the Red Ray deposits (discussions on Red Ray ongoing), both of which are located close to the Kilimapesa Gold Processing Plant"
ATB APR

@ID78 Thanks, this would then be the SECOND area that the government has then taken from the GoldPlat PL0189 licence and given to Bao Gold Hill (kenya) Ltd in Aug-2018 under a new licence Pl/2018/0072 and is reference3d in GoldPlat Annual Report 2010. This is the 6sqkm square missing from the current licence to the West of Red Ray.
ATB APR

@ID78 You say Red Ray is disputed ... it is outside our Exploration licence but forms part of the 671koz JORC from GoldPlat/IGE days. Do you have a link to the details of WHY it is disputed as I could not find anything as I thought it was part fo the JV that GoldPlat bought out from IGE???
ATB APR

Yep my hindsight is 20:20 and 0.94p average
ATB APR

Looks like a sale and buyback to me for 5m shares (reordered by time stamp) ... tax loss or bed & ISA perhaps?
13-Jun-22 09:10:16 0.70 91,550 Unknown* 0.65 0.75 640.85
13-Jun-22 08:37:39 0.725 5,000,000 Unknown* 0.65 0.75 36.25k
13-Jun-22 08:07:38 0.66267 5,000,382 Unknown* 0.65 0.75 33.14k

@JC Really interesting background 'administrative reasons' why a placing is unlikely, but when you add in RMs prior comments on various interviews about avoiding dilution until SP is higher and reminding us that he is a large shareholder himself then I think he is 'telling' us to discount a dilutative placing before Dec-22 and 24koz/annum target is reached. GCAT also has £7.5m warrants outstanding with strike price of 2.5p so very likely BoDs aim to get SP up first so raise capital that way keeping existing II & HNW investors onside in the process.

When the Nyakafuru assessment lands then some form of capital raising probably via debt funding will be needed as new mines don't build themselves!
ATB APR

@TRek Thanks but had to look :-) Details below for those interested ...

Shanta Gold Stanbic Loan Facility Highlights:
· Facility - US$20 million senior secured loan facility
· Interest rate - 3 Month Term SOFR2 + Credit Adjustment Spread + Margin of 5.5%. Current total cost of financing is 6.84%
· Four-year term including a one-year capital grace period
· Repayment in 12 equal capital repayments following the end of the capital grace period with no early repayment penalties
· Gold price protection covering 16,000 oz over the next 12 months, representing approximately 2% of Shanta's total gold reserves and +/-20% of the next 12 months of production. A range of hedging alternatives is being considered
· The Facility is secured over the business assets of Shanta Gold's Tanzanian subsidiary company, Shanta Mining Company Limited ("SMCL"), and a pledge over the Company's shares in SMCL
· Financial close is subject to conditions precedent typical for a facility of this nature

Shanta will use $20m loan "facility will primarily be utilised to support the ongoing construction of the Singida Gold Project". Singida will be Shanta's 3rd mine and is scheduled for the first gold pour in Q1 2023 taking them to over a 100koz/annum gold production.

Commentary:
So a $20m/£16.2m loan @6.84% with a 12-month capital repayment holding followed by 12 equal $1.67m capital repayments every 3 months over the final 3 years with no early repayment charges. Loan secured against Shanta's assets with 16koz of production hedged for 12 months just in case.

We know GoldPlat invested $20m at Kilimapesa to build the mine plus £6m or so since by GCAT to expand & upgrade it, so will be interesting to see what Nyakafuru plant costs will be and how this compares to Shanta loan financing above.

So will GCAT go for a similar sized 500tpd/15ktpd plant and upgrade to 1000tpd/30ktpm process plant as they are doing at Kilimapesa to keep CAPEX lower while they ramp up production and free cashflow to expand later ... or even small plant and high tonnage HL facility to accelerate production profile for lower CAPEX albeit at lower %recoveries?
ATB APR

RNS reports:
> 3x holes 448m previously drilled at Rock House target & await assay results
> 3x holes 430m total drilled at Trafalgar Hill, OMCO project & await assay results
> Rig now moved to drill 8x holes at OMCO mine site

Looks like Trafalgar Hill drills have all hit alteration where their models predicted so the assays should be interesting.
ATB APR

@Bebeto Looking at the various maps in the Prospectus and replicated on the most recent presentation most of the drilling seems to have been done by the Joint JV between GoldPlat/IGE from KGP RNS @Jul-2007 which was subsequently bought back by KGP in Sept-2009 from IGE. So we may have lots of drill data which 'indicates' where mineralisation may be but may or may not be able to be incorporated into an updated JORC dependent on how the drilling was carried out and recorded during 2007/09 JV drill programme.

It looks like Red & Alpha Ray are OUTSIDE our PL0189 Exploration licence but the Q1'22 presentation P15 says... "This comprises the Kilimapesa Hill and the Red Ray deposits (discussions on Red Ray ongoing), both of which are located close to the Kilimapesa Gold Processing Plant"
ATB APR

@bebeto I've been looking through some of the historic GoldPlat RNSs and the GCAT LSE prospectus and the current Exploration licence holds a number of colonial era mines primarily Teng Teng that has an Adit but was noted as needing de-watering before it could be brought back into use. Many of the other targets were 'found' by artisanal miners in the 1990s and GoldPlat even processed the ore for them at Kilimapesa hence the good relations with the local community!

My simple observation is that ANY of these target areas if developed could be used to generate high grade ore and easily trucked to Kilimapesa plant for processing.
ATB APR

@bebeto 4-Mar-22 RNS just talks about new appointment and his background nothing about licences and targets.
ATB APR

Various posters have piqued my interest particularly around apparent change in priority expansion drilling from Teng-Teng and Vim Rutha to Meghor Ref: Intaba presentation p12 says "Regional exploration program designed, 7 “Brownfields” targets with 28,000m (276 holes) over 3 phases over 3rd and 4th QTR 2022" https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Caracal-presentation-Q1-2022-final-PDF.pdf
7 Regional “Brownfields” targets ready to drill with exploration license
? 28,000m planned over 3 phases to commence in June 2022
? Target 1 – Vim Rutha
? 3,2km of strike, +8,000m planned, historical exploration and drilling show grades from 2,5g/t to 12g/t
? Target 2 – Teng Teng
? 1,4km of strike, +3,500m planned, historical exploration and mining show grades of +10g/t

GCAT Q2 Presentation p16 Ref: https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Caracal-presentation-Q1-2022-final-PDF.pdf
? Multiple targets on the prospecting permit have been identified for high grade and / or shallow, open pittable potential (Southern Mineralised Zone, Olepoipoi, Natingile, Meghor)
? A dolerite “Southern Mineralised Zone” has been identified from the old workings with results of 40m at 4.98g/t achieved

Docs P12 refer to current Prospect licence Pl0189 within which all 7 stated targets sit namely:
> Teng Teng = historical exploration and mining show grades of +10g/t
> Southern Mineralised Zone, Olepoipoi, Natingile, Meghor = old mine with results of 40m at 4.98g/t achieved
> Vim Ruthor = historical exploration and drilling show grades from 2,5g/t to 12g/t
> Lwalla = no details
> Soiminin = no details

Contested Licence Area:
Docs also show a 6sqkm contested rectangular licence area of Callwell as licence area granted by government in Aug-2008 to Bao Gold Hill (Kenya)Ltd Ref: Pl/2018/0072 details in GoldPlat Annual Report 2010 showing as unresolved. Ref p8 of https://cmsignition.co.za/download/files_1428/GoldplatReportandAccounts2018.pdf
"In October 2017 management were advised of an application for an exploration licence over an area in the Kilimapesa exploration licence. An objection was lodged and numerous meetings have been held with officials from the Ministry of Mining and the Licensing Authority, including the Cabinet Secretary (Minister of Mines). Despite meeting with the Cabinet Secretary, it is unclear as to the exact status of this application and the Company is taking legal advice on the best way to proceed."

Outside Granted Licence Area:
Areas outside our current exploration licence called Blue Ray, Natingile, Alpha Ray and Red Ray keep being referred to, but it is not clear the current status of this area which is especially odd as Natingile is referred to in SMR above but shown outside PL0189.

Anyone care to provide some enlightenment as not sure whether GCAT has any rights to explore Natingile, Red Ray or Alpha Ray at this time or whether there is intention/activity to secure these rights?
ATB APR

@Dick Cash costs reported as $960/oz plus savings estimated at another $100/oz from mains power hook-up or $860/oz overall. AISC is more tricky but quoted as around $1,150/oz by RM on recent podcast although any free cashflow is being fully reinvested in expanding mining output, infill/expansion drill programme and process plant upgrades to achieve 2kozpm production by end Dec-22.
ATB APR

@ItsYou Thanks I had not noticed updated presentation. Page 11 clearly shows that recent Kilimapesa drilling is all WITHIN current mining licence so any new resources are available for immediate mining.

... and like OOSM I'm intrigued as to why they are now prioritising Maghor over prior 2 targets identified only a few weeks ago so must be for a good reason!
ATB APR

@Suggins As I understand it GCAT have a mining and exploration licence around their existing mine at Kilimapesa. I would be very surprised if they were exploring without an exploration licence, but agree it would be useful in due course to plot newly explored areas against existing mining operations to show "proximity" (nearer = less ore transport costs) and existing mining licences to demonstrate "availability" for processing.

It should not make any difference as far as a company structure is concerned where a licence is held, but it would affect how those subsidiaries accounts are made up and then accounted for in the 'TopCo' ... of course different countries company and mining laws vary so maybe a consideration.

Anyone found any links to Kilimapesa plant, mines and licences ... overlay or otherwise?
ATB APR

Now we have a TR1 confirming a 4% holding by a HNW we know that there are now a lot of tightly held shares.

Whatever the MCap we know that they are generating decent free cashflow which is being reinvested across mine, production and exploration.

Once the Seller/s is inevitably done and the exploration drilling results start to flow underpinned by a revised MRE then the sub £13m MCap will start to rerate as demonstrable progress will be too obvious to ignore.
ATB APR

@ID78 Nothing to add you nailed it
ATB APR

@greg 100% agree that GCATs aim is to get the SP at least 10% above the 2.5p strike price so target 2.75p+ of those warrants before they expire as it is a very effective way to raise capital at no further cost to the company as associated fees were paid out to advisors when warrants were issued not when they are exercised. Additionally any dilutative effect is already well known so 'no surprises' AND GCAT get to keep all the (upto) £7.5m cash raised from warrants to fund the next development stage driving a virtuous development upcycle.

My expectation is the SP should hit 2.75p and with 1820m shares the MCap will be £50m+ when:
1) Issue MRE end Jun-22
> add 100koz or more 'new' resource & increase confidence in current resources
> Increase Kilimapesa LoM to minimum 5 years with Measured category of 24koz x5 years = 120koz+ (61koz now)

2) Deliver on 2koz/month by Dec-22 via expanded mine & plant output
> Fully commission new 20ktpm HL pads = minimum 600oz/month at Q1 reported 1.75g/t and 52% recovery
> Upgrade plant capacity 15ktpm to 30ktpm & better efficiency
> Create credible Mine Plan & expand Kilimapesa mine output to 50ktpm (30kt plant +20kt HL)
> maintain 2koz production so they become an established 24koz/annum producer

3) Establish credible costed development plan for Nyakafuru mine & secure associated funding (preferably debt)

4) Expansion drilling at Kilimapesa & Myakafuru to drive towards 2Moz combined resource base

Entirely possible Brucey Bonuses include:
> 'New commercial' 100kt HL mentioned on prior interview
> Nyakafuru Reefs and Simba deals closed with reasonable commercial arrangement avoiding excessive dilution
> Bring 2kozpm production ahead of end Dec-22 target
ATB APR

@OOSM/JC Yes Q4'21 report was definitely information rich in stark comparison to Q1'22 report where we have all struggled to work out what has actually been going on and piece the Q1 story together for ourselves. From what I have seen, inferred and calculated both mine and plant output actually look very solid so why not say so and make it overtly clear?

IMHO standardisation of production quarterly reports would provide continuity as GCAT transitions from small 'hobby' mine just being run to pay its 'care & maintenance' costs under GoldPlat to a serious dynamic small producer, explorer & developer under GCAT.
ATB APR