Member Info for aprogerson

Morning OOSM My understanding of current plant, throughput, configurations, %recovery (now vs. later) & future plans are based on Prospectus (Aug-21) plus RNS 20-May-22 Q1'22 & Stockbox interview data and will evolve as new capacity brought online with optimised plant, mine and mine plan to follow:

Configuration, costs & %recovery:
> Plant 1 & 2 (in series) High grade Circuit via std CIL = High CAPEX & OPEX
>> %Recovery now = 91% (Q1'22) ... see Explainer below
>> %Recovery when optimised = @92/94% (expect Q2 2023)

> Plant 3 & 4 (in parallel) Low grade bulk Heap Leach = Low CAPEX & lower OPEX
>> %Recovery now = 52.5% (Q1'22)
>> %Recovery when optimised = @55-65% (expect Q4 2022)

Plant 1 & 2 %recovery Explainer (RNS 20-May-22 data):
> Plant 1 Standard Plant = Crusher> Ball Mill> Gravity> CIL = 80% recovery
> Plant 2 Tailings Plant = CIL = 52% recovery
As Plant 1 output feeds Plant 2 input then overall %recovery = 80% + (52%x 20%) = 91% when optimised I expect that this may rise to 92-94% max

Capacity, throughput & availability:
> High grade Ore Circuit via standard CIL Capacity:
>> Plant 1 & 2 Standard & Tailings CIL = 15ktpm or 180ktpa ... Plant 1 & 2 are in series NOT parallel
>> Plant 1b & 2b Standard & Tailings CIL = +15ktpm or +180ktpa

> Lower Grade Ore via Heap Leach pads Capacity:
>> Plant 3 Small HL = 20ktpm or 140ktpa (4x 5ktpm HL pads)
>> Plant 4 Large HL = 100ktpm or 1,200ktpa (4x 25ktpm HL pads)

Timeline & Capacity by Dec-22: (Upgraded plant 1b & 2b to follow in Q1 2023)
> Plant 1 & 2 Standard & Tailings CIL = 15ktpm or 180ktpa @91% recovery @2.5g/t
> Plant 3 & 4 HL = 140ktpm or 1,680ktpa (4x 5ktpm +4x 30ktpm HL pads) @53.5% recovery @1.72g/t

Grades & Production by Dec-22 (RNS 20-May-22 data):
> Plant 1 & 2 Standard & Tailings CIL = 15ktpm x91% recovery x2.5g/t /31.1 = 1,100oz gold/month
> Plant 3 HL = 20ktpm x53.5% recovery x1.72g/t /31.1 = 590oz gold/month
> Plant 4 HL = 120ktpm x53.5% recovery x1.72g/t /31.1 = 3,550oz gold/month

Max Revenue & FCF (RNS 20-May-22 data):
Assume Production= 5,240ozs, POG= $1,800 & AISC= $1,250 so FCF= $550/ounce
So, Free Cashflow (FCF) = 5,240oz x(1,800-1,250) = $2.88m or £2.4m/month

Worst case = Plant 1+2+3 plus only 1x 30kt Plant 4 pad by Dec-22:
> Plant 1 & 2 Standard & Tailings CIL = 15ktpm x91% recovery x2.5g/t /31.1 = 1,100oz gold/month
> Plant 3 HL = 20ktpm x53.5% recovery x1.72g/t /31.1 = 590oz gold/month
> Plant 4 HL = 30ktpm x53.5% recovery x1.72g/t /31.1 = 888oz gold/month ... only get 1 pad commissioned ???
Assume Production= 2,578ozs, POG= $1,800 & AISC= $1,250 so FCF= $550/ounce
So, Free Cashflow (FCF) = 2,578oz x(1,800-1,250) = $1.42m or £1.2m/month

IMHO worst case still comfortably beats 2koz/month by end Dec-22, BUT all assumes can mine the necessary ore! Once main plant upgraded and HL plant optimised then %recoveries and profit w

@ID78 Plant 2 is the Tailings plant which uses the output from Plant 1 as its input. I still think of Plant 1 & 2 as a single entity with 15ktpm capacity and an overall 90/92% efficiency with circa 2.5g/t as its input.

My strong suspicion is as HL capacity grows only the very high grade ore will then be routed to Plant1/2 as it seems almost criminal to be routing high grade ore at 50-60% recoveries to HL. Once we hit 24koz/annum the next leg up will be to increase throughput at the main processing Plant 1/2 so we get the full benefits of the high-grade ore at much higher throughput.
ATB APR

@greg Bottom line is it will be a busy 6 months & we know with a fair degree of confidence that the result will be 24koz/annum, AISC max $1,250 and 1Moz MRE at Kilimapesa by end Dec-22.

... and from what we have seen so far we have every reason to be optimistic
ATB APR

@ID78 Good spot on the block model as I think prior 1g/t cut-off is far too conservative given POG and Heap Leach processing. Whilst 0.3g/t may seem enticing it really does depend on grade, extent, depth and also coverage. To my mind 0.5g/t might be viable for an open pit operation but much less likely to be economic for underground mining.

I guess we will find out when they publish the MRE and any update to the open pit shell model rather than the 'under hill' model we have seen to date.
ATB APR

Looking good ...
> CASA cash now being drawdown and balance of $2.5m by end of July ... who said it would never happen !
> AAL deal DD progressing
Cannot wait until the drill rigs get mobilised
ATB APR

Morning anyone catch whether cash was £1.75m or $1,75m and WHEN ... worth knowing which one as we account in £
ATB APR

@Trek thanks for picking up the £1.75m cash position snippet ... audio was awful

Shame there was so little time for questions and not of the typed Q&A was dealt with.

Interesting point was RM stated that Plant 4 (Large commercial HL) is now under construction!

AISC of $1200/$1250 is still pretty darned good and is going to bounce around for some months given everything that is going on.
ATB APR

Cutting it fine now Robbie !
ATB APR

Anyone have a link to share so we can watch investor call?
ATB APR

Dollar Hegemony is having a hard time now US has weaponised both USD & SWIFT especially when holding dollars now loses you 10% a year due to inflation and some very stupid sanctions including new Russian gold ban when they produce over 9% worlds gold ... > BRICS plus Iran & Argentina looking at alternative to SWIFT and Reserve Currency based on Commodities plus Gold & Silver https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSp0FIP0OsY

Some light reading ...
> When to buy & which sector? Rick Rule @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_KVupYh7ds
> Russian Gold ban speeds up Great Reset =Mike Maloney @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_fJ2qliA_Q
> Euro debt crisis could shock the World =Liberty & Finance @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6jGc8SvKTw
> In the middle of 2 Bull Markets ? =Rick Rule @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXT6q1k4vnQ
Enjoy
ATB APR

@Greg I've always found that the absolute grade itself is useful information but only economically meaningful when you know the depth it is found at and the length of continuity of that grade.

Theorising aside we do know that open pitable grades over say 1 g/t and down to 100m are likely to be economic whereas underground grades need to be higher to be economic because of the higher mining costs. If you have higher grades over longer intercepts at shallower depths then your profitability is likely to be higher.

What we do know is that we already have a working processing plant that is already being significantly upgraded in terms of scale, process flowsheet and %recovery efficiencies that massively lower the economic grade, intercept and depth thresholds ... broadly the only real variable is now the overall AISC meaning that the only real risk is that GCAT pursue more marginal resources to up the volumes of ore required to fill the processing capacity. In other words spend more to dig out and produce more at a higher AISC but produce the same or lower free cashflow.
ATB APR

@Greg So current Kilmapesa 'share' of 671koz JORC (Red Ray & Kili) is 531koz
> 200koz upgrade = 38% resources
> 300koz = upgrade = 56% resources
Let's hope we are both right AND we get a large increase in confidence levels of existing resources from Inferred > Indicated > Measured categories !
ATB APR

RCR put out a Broker Briefing presentation on 16-Jun-22 @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klFlnVd06Ms with lots of good news to digest:

Finances: MCap = A$5.13m & Cash = A$1.9m @31-Mar-22 ... so exploration well funded with low cash burn

SOUTH TELFER COPPER - GOLD PROJECT – PATERSON PROVINCE, WA
Hasties prospect: Gold/Copper prospect
> Q3 Hasties Deeps DD drill hole assays expected in next 4-6 weeks <<< one to watch =sulphides !!
> Q3Technical Review & Mapping
> Q4 Metallurgy Study
> Q4'22 & Q2'23 drill programme = 5,000m RC drilling

Westin Project: Gold/Copper prospect
> Q3'22 Heritage survey
> Q4'22 UFF Soil surveys & follow-up Q2'23
> Q4'22 drill programme = 5,000m Aircore drilling
> Q2'23 drill programme = 5,000m RC drilling

KIWIRRKURRA IOCG PROJECT – WEST ARUNTA REGION, WA Gold/Copper prospect
> Q4 drill programme = 2,000m RC/DD drilling planned at Pokali
> 1,000m EIS co-funded 2xDD drilling to test two deep targets at Pokali

Taken much longer than I had originally thought, but still compelling prospects in close proximity to Telfer for processing if/when proven to be economic
ATB APR

I think that there is truth in both trains of thought. Now we have HL online we can process lots of 'lower' grade ore BELOW 2g/t and we REALLY do need LOTS of it to feed the monster HL pads when they are built ... everything above 2g/t or more likely 2.5g/t will go via the main process plant as it is far more efficient.

Think of it as lots of milk (HL) and 'gold top' cream (main plant) ... the trick will be rebalancing everything to optimise ore quantity by grade to specific processing ... hence why the mine plan will be soooooo important.

I wonder if the cut-off grade will be tweaked from 1g/t to 0.8g/t to expand both the modelled economic pit shell and the underground stopes as lower grades become economic via HL processing? Economic grades for open pit can easily be below 1g/t with underground typically being higher grades.
ATB APR

Just checking back to GCAT LSE launch prospectus in Aug-21 https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Prospectus-Final-19.07.21.pdf

The prospectus confirms the resource split between Kilimapesa and Red Ray & several things really standout for me:
> JORC model cut-off grade is 1g/t so any ore below this grade is not reflected in current resources
> Kilimapesa JORC on p31 @531koz
> Red Ray JORC on p32 @140koz

Commentary:
1) JORC remodelling cut-off grade = GCAT is using Heap Leach so grades below 1g/t may now be economic so could provide a significant resource upgrade just be remodelling existing drill datasets
2) Infill & Expansion Drilling = the historical JORC model is discontinuous so if joined up then resources could be upgraded excluded resources brought into any revised JORC ... prospectus says "The block model resulting from IRES’s work is discontinuous and its geometry is largely controlled by the availability of data (underground channel samples to the West and drill hole intercepts to the East, see Figure 13). Only about a third of the strike length delineated by artisan workings has been taken into consideration in modelling, and only a tenth is reasonably well documented (KPG underground workings area)."

@Greg you may be right as the above data from the prospectus indicates that nay revised MRE may surprise to the upside especially if the cut-off grade is dropped to (say) 0.8g/t and/or known mineralisation could be brought into the MRE via infill drilling.
ATB APR

@Greg Yep. my thoughts too especially after 5 months infill & expansion drilling at Kilimapesa
ATB APR

@Itsyou and OOSM Thanks for the input.
I really think GCAT could do with posting a statement clearing up the status of their mining and exploration licences in relation to Natingile, Alpha Ray and Red Ray prospects outside PL0189 and especially to Caldwell and the status of Bao Mining as this was contentious. Clearly if there is any ongoing legal action it can simply state that discussions and/or litigation is planned/underway and cannot comment further. If it has been resolved then say so ... at least we would know !
ATB APR

@Itsyou Presentation q1'22 p14 bottom left hand diagram showing ALL exploration targets inside and outside current PL0189 exploration licence AND Bao Mining licence area Pl/2018/0072 over Caldwell prospect which has been removed from latest June-22 presentation.
ATB APR

Ref: https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Caracal-presentation-Q1-2022-final-PDF.pdf

@Suggins Sadly nothing on Bao Gold Hill (Kenya)Ltd or their licence Ref: Pl/2018/0072 carved out of PL0189 back in Aug-2018 and contested by GoldPlat. The EXCLUSION of Pl/2018/0072 from GCATs exploration licence in JUn-22 presentation when previously shown in Q1'22 presentation cannot be accidental and should be explained as it is a substantive change.

Anyone with any time/resources and access to Kenyan mining licence cadastre to do some investigation into status of Bao's licence Pl/2018/0072?
ATB APR