Member Info for aprogerson

Funny how we've closed at 0.875p ,,,, so confirmed as resistance as we haven't closed above it (yet)
ATB APR

Would be good to see a bit of consolidation above 0.875p or 0.94p before we push on to form a decent base for the next leg up. Confirmation of updated MRE and Red Ray obviously did the trick and took away most of the downside risk

Blimey 50% up from Mondays 0.626p low is some going !
ATB APR

@Kewben Thanks for the feedback ... did they say that there would be a recording posted and/or material on JV and/or plant posted at some point?
ATB APR

@Troajan My weekly chart of GCAT is now looking uber-bullish after the incredibly frustrating grinding multi-week moves lower with the persistent seller who now looks to have left the building.

Resistance ahead at 0.875p, 0.94p and 1.02p then broadly clear run ... as always it won't be a straight line and as GCAT is a microcap it will be news and POG driven. We'll get Q2 Operations report in circa 3 weeks which should show Heap Leach plant 3 contribution & Plant 1&2 running at circa 850oz/month so finally demonstrating 1koz/month threshold achieved ... with any luck we will get confirmation of Plant 4 Uber HL and/or commissioning dates/timeline.

Personally I'd like to see some figures on HL % recoveries as the prior 52.5% figure was for the original pilot HL plant so 65%+ is my best guess steady state. If they can throw in a Brucey Bonus revised AISC figure that would be good too!
ATB APR

@Troajan I'm still showing 0.8776 on IG but I don't have L2 so doubtless I am 15m delayed

@ID78 Sorry correction ... "So you are right in that GCAT should be higher or SHANTA (not GCAT) lower given what information we can glean which is especially galling given GCAT is debt-free and 50% more profitable/ounce compared with SHG."

@ID78 Rightly or wrongly I suspect the market is giving SHG more 'credit' as it is an established, well-run performer plus it is 'cashed-up' for next mine build. So you are right in that GCAT should be higher or GCAT lower given what information we can glean which is especially galling given GCAT is debt-free and 50% more profitable/ounce compared with SHG.

What is absolutely clear from my comparable information is that a rerate from current £15m to £30m+ looks inevitable once the 2koz/month target is hit assuming AISC at $1,250 is maintained, however if AISC drops then I'd expect GCAT to outperform SHG as it is already 50% more profitable/ounce at current AISCs and if POG drops this disparity will grow in GCATs favour.

GCAT is well positioned and (mostly) does what it says or outperforms so all good in my book!
ATB APR

GCAP PX is now retesting 0.875 resistance after dropping through what was support there 10 weeks ago which is remarkable given POG continues to be weak having broken $1,725 support this morning indicating a retest of $1,680 maybe likely soon.

GCAT has low AISC of $1,250 with 100% of gold produced going through plants 1 & 2 in Q1 and I expect less than 80% in Q2, so as more Heap Leach comes online gold production is expected to rise strongly through Q3 into Q4 when it should reach target 2koz/month in Dec-22. At that point at least 50% of production will be via Heap Leach which is lower OPEX so AISC should drop and cashflow/ounce rise along with overall rising output.

A very decent MRE just issued based on Batch 1 & 2 infill drilling with batches 3 & 4 expansion drilling results expected on Oct-22 when overall resources should rise strongly underpinned by a now very healthy 10+ year Kilimapesa mine life at target 24koz/annum production.

Goldilocks scenario anyone?
ATB APR

@Tornado The market is very dodgy and gold/copper producers inexplicably hated ... no comfort but AAZ is in a good position, well run, has a divi and cash generative so what's not to like especially as it has a healthy MCap to koz produced ratio from what I can see.
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@Suggins Sensible idea, I think I'll pop that on this weekends To Do List ... at least I'll then have it to hand and can rerun regularly once completed. Not sure why Align haven't done so but it did seem a 'short and sweet' update.
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@Giovs Daniel recently posted "ID78 - I posted some basic info. a little while ago about Scotgold ( 1.2Koz/PM in 2Q2022, MCAP £45M), Pure gold (2.2Koz/PM in 1Q2022, MCAP £75M) and Shanta gold (4Koz/PM in 1Q2022, MCAP £95M). Feel we are currently in line with Scotgold. GLA, Dan" which I wanted to unpack as I found it useful.

Comparable: MCAP +Production +Equivalent MCAP +AISC
Kenya
> GCAT MCap=£14.5m & 1koz/m so £14.5m/1koz & £29m/2koz with AISC=$1,250 & 1.3Moz resource
> SHG MCap=£90m & 6koz/m so £15m/1koz & £30m/2koz with AISC=$1440 & 1.6Moz resource
Canada & UK
> Puregold MCap=£75m & 2.2koz/m so £34m/1koz & £78m/2koz with AISC=$XXXX & XXMoz resource
> ScotGold MCap=£45m & 1.2koz/m so £38m/1koz & £76m/2koz with AISC=$1300/1450 & XXMoz resource
Mali
> HUM MCap=£36m & 7.7koz/m so £4.7m/1koz & £9.4m/2koz with AISC=$1540 & 2.8Moz resource
Azerbaijan
> AAZ MCap=£101m & 5.4koz/m so £19m/1koz & £38m/2koz with AISC=$850 & XXMoz resource

Commentary:
1) GCAT nearest comparable is Shanta Gold whose AISC/oz produced is much higher but is very near valuation to GCAT MCap/koz produced ... this implies GCAT is undervalued as it is 25/30% more profitable and will double production in next 6 months.
2) HUM is Mali but sky high AISC driving valuation MCap/1koz @35% of GCATs despite considerably more resources ... AISC is VERY important!
3) Puregold and ScotGold valuations are over 2x GCATs reflect safe jurisdictions ... AISCs unknown
4) AAZ is not in a 'safe' jurisdiction but is a dependable very low AISC producer so highly profitable dividend payer so seems undervalued

In summary GCAT valuation does not seem to be an outlier BUT with production growth forecast to double in next 6 months a doubling of SP it not unreasonable everything else being equal. I would expect confirmation of Red Ray licences and an expanded MRE in Oct-22 to provide additional SP support. Any positive news on Nyakafuru development timetable and confirmation of debt funding would be a real boost

The "Elephant in the room " is POG; if it retests $1,680 then GCAT is well placed with low $1,250 AISC to weather it unlike Shanta which is more exposed with $1,440 AISC
ATB APR

@Kew Yes the relative contributions, management, profit share and/or cost to setup the operation within the JV MOU is not yet clear. We all know setting up a full operation is likely to be more than $200k (assuming 50/50 share) so it looks like their will be more detail & associated costs to come as this unfolds, but if the overall cost & risk can be shared to maximise the available processing capacity when online this makes very good business sense.
ATB APR

@Daniel Interesting comparables ... I only know that after todays MRE, confirmation of Red Ray licence application & Plant upgrade progress to date that the answer should not be £13m!
ATB APR

LOL @GTMufo GWMO are only MCAP £5.2m with very low running costs. Todays RNS using a JV to deliver processing of Ore and tailings CONFIRMS that they will not have to fork out lots of CAPEX to build the plant themselves or OPEX to run it. In addition it will be standalone and able to bring in revenue from 3rd parties so it can act as a source of revenue for GWMO ... but yes other than you are right GWMO are clearly going to go bankrupt so I suggest you sell up while you can on todays SP bounce.

Small prize to anyone that can spot my cleverly hidden sarcasm
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@Hodgeyd Yes todays TR1 confirms that he has added 22.5m shares in the last 8 days since his last TR1 on 22-Jun-22 .... I think they call it "backing up the truck and loading up"
I'm just jealous
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@Suggins Good spot ... I have reread RNS and it does not say new MRE is JORC compliant or reference figures produced by a competent person in accordance with JORC 2012 as you might expect.

HOWEVER as prior MRE was JORC 2012 compliant and this updates those figures using JORC category nomenclature are similar overall resource, but at much, much higher confidence levels that may explain why they chose to combine Measured & Indicated resource categories as they still had some modelling work to do to clarify how much is in each category. We are expecting an MRE update in October, but it would be very easy to update this MRE saying it IS JORC compliant when they have finished it.

Very happy and very chilled after todays RNS ... massively de-risked AND Red Ray looks like it is coming back into our Exploration licences which is also BIG news as that adds 140koz JORC resources straight away.
ATB APR

There are 1,825m shares in issue not stated 1,639m ... both London South East and LSE main are incorrect. If in doubt please check AGM Notice RNS dated 24-Feb-22 https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Notice-of-AGM-2022.pdf

"As at 18 February 2022, the Company’s issued ordinary share capital comprises 1,824,978,590 Ordinary Shares" so at @SP=0.7p the MCap is £12.8m
ATB APR

MOU for processing JV is HUGE news and significantly derisks GWMO ... well done BH !
> Using refurbished 2nd user equipment to reduce CAPEX
> Plant will INCLUDE ball mill, gravity separation and floatation circuits for unprocessed ore AND stated direct feed for Tailings into flotation circuit
> JV will be operated by partner and accept feedstock & tailings from Partner, GWMO and 3rd parties so implies ongoing revenue/profit stream to GWMO as well as direct revenue from own ore/tailings

JV Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is not binding but will form basis for JV. RNS states partner adding $100k so expect GWMO will have to match JV investment unless %split is not 50/50 (not stated).

IMHO this MOU now massively derisks GWMO going forward & reduces CAPEX and OPEX drain on GWMO considerably whilst opening up BOTH unprocessed ore and tailings processing AND additional revenue/profit from other 3rd parties wanting to sue facility = Happy Days !
ATB APR

@ID78 I'm pretty sure cut-off grade remains unchanged at 1g/t as only 34koz new resources have been added, but agree that change in overall grade from 2.43g/t in Jul-21 prospectus to 1.5g/t in Jul-22 MRE in todays RNS is very strange.
If cut-off grade dropped then I'd expect grade to drop and resources to increase so does seem odd
ATB APR

Updated MRE is exceptional News for GCAT for several reasons:
> Red Ray licence dispute confirmed as resolved & under application = +140koz & exploration potential
> Kilimapesa LoM @24koz/annum production was max 4 years @105koz & now 10+ years @318koz M&I
> Only Infill drilling batches 1&2 included in MRE as only extra 34koz new resources added but 212koz moved from Inferred to Measured & Indicated

... this implies several things:
> Cut off grade unchanged at 1g/t so room to upgrade resources if lowered at no cost as needed for HL
> Revised MRE in Oct-22 will include expansion drill assay batches 3&4 so expect all new koz along extended strike
> When Red Ray exploration application confirmed opens up considerable exploration potential

So the Kilimapesa Hill numbers unpacked .... see Prospectus p31 (Jul-21) and todays RNS
Measured = 13koz
Indicated .= 92koz
so M & I ....= 105koz >>> 318koz or 213koz increase
Inferred ...= 426koz >>> 248koz with 212koz moved up to M&I category
Total.........= 532koz >>> 566koz or increase of 34koz overall

Commentary:
> Exceptional news as LoM now considerably extended to 10+ years LoM due to batch 1&2 Infill drill campaign
> Measured & Indicated combined is a bit 'sneaky' as it masks how much is now 'Measured' vs 'Indicated'

Looking forward to Oct-22 updated MRE which should be even better news as it will include batches 3&4 expansion drill results
ATB APR