Member Info for aprogerson

@Greg I am 'pencilling in' another 200koz (+38%) additional resources taking JORC from 531koz to 731koz at the operating Kilimapesa mine. GCAT have been infill and expansion drilling around their mine for at least 5 months so there should also be a shed-load of resources moved from inferred>Indicated>measured categories to demonstrate increased confidence in their resources and importantly a decent 3+ years Life of Mine (LoM) figure.

Any revised JORC will then be a stand-alone resource for Kilimapesa as we know from recent presentation (P12) says Kilimapesa Hill "Hosts over 531,600 oz of JORC Compliant Resources" which implies that Red Ray holds the balancing (671-531Koz) = 140koz resources.

Most importantly for me will be any confirmation of the future of both Red Ray (balance of current JORC =140koz) and Caldwell ceded to Bao Mining by the government from the original PL0189 licence.

From my 11-Jun-22 post referring to Q1'22 presentation ...
Contested Licence Area:
Docs also show a 6sqkm contested rectangular licence area of Caldwell as licence area granted by government in Aug-2008 to Bao Gold Hill (Kenya)Ltd Ref: Pl/2018/0072 details in GoldPlat Annual Report 2010 showing as unresolved. Ref p8 of https://cmsignition.co.za/download/files_1428/GoldplatReportandAccounts2018.pdf
"In October 2017 management were advised of an application for an exploration licence over an area in the Kilimapesa exploration licence. An objection was lodged and numerous meetings have been held with officials from the Ministry of Mining and the Licensing Authority, including the Cabinet Secretary (Minister of Mines). Despite meeting with the Cabinet Secretary, it is unclear as to the exact status of this application and the Company is taking legal advice on the best way to proceed."

Outside Granted Licence Area:
Areas outside our current exploration licence called Blue Ray, Natingile, Alpha Ray and Red Ray keep being referred to, but it is not clear the current status of this area which is especially odd as Natingile is referred to in SMR above but shown outside PL0189.

It looks like Red & Alpha Ray are OUTSIDE our PL0189 Exploration licence but the Q1'22 presentation P15 says... "This comprises the Kilimapesa Hill and the Red Ray deposits (discussions on Red Ray ongoing), both of which are located close to the Kilimapesa Gold Processing Plant"

Comments on June-22 Presentation & Licence update:
The latest Jun-22 presentation p13 shows 7 Regional Exploration targets INCLUDING Blue Ray & Caldwell (previously ceded to Bao in 2008 see above) and NO associated 6sqm licence 'out-take', but now NOT Natingile, Red Ray or Alpha Ray (as outside PL0189) which differs from Q1'22 presentation approach ... some clarity would be useful !
ATB APR

Ref: https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_JUNE-22-FINAL.pdf

Uncrossing trade is a randomised auction of buyers and sellers at agreed price so is very unlikely to be a single entity trading and as it is after days trading it becomes closing price
https://www.shiftingshares.com/what-is-an-uncrossing-trade/

@RPdard Well we should not have long to find out the exact drill details used for the updated MRE, but we do know that one is coming very, very soon and it is expected to have increased ounces and increased levels of confidence.
ATB APR

@ID78 Yes GCAT is cutting it fine with Batch #3 results so it can issue MRE #1 by end June so looks like a busy few days ahead ... and lots more to come with planned expansion drilling!

7 Regional “Brownfields” targets identified for further exploration (presentation p13)
• 28,000m planned over 3 phases to commence in June 2022
• RC Drilling commenced on Maghor
• Soil sampling and Auger Drilling planned for all targets

We have also previously discussed that the current 671koz JORC covers BOTH Kilimapesa AND Red Ray but we did not know the split; the presentation (P12) says Kilimapesa Hill "Hosts over 531,600 oz of JORC Compliant Resources" which implies that Red Ray holds the balancing (671-531Koz) = 140koz resources. This further explains the current imperative of "Drill Baby Drill" to clearly delineate a Kilimapesa only MRE with more ounces & higher levels of confidence to support a much higher LoM.
ATB APR

@ID78 Just reading through the recently issued June-22 presentation @ https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_JUNE-22-FINAL.pdf We know that there has been an infill/expansion drilling programme running at Kilimapesa which started Jan-22 and completed end May-22 with assay results split into 4 batches with batch 1 & 2 results issued and awaiting batch #3 any time soon.

Kilimapesa MRE Update #1 = end Jun-22
> Gold Projects (p7) = 671,446 oz JORC Resource (To be updated end of Q2, 2022)
> Kilimapesa Gold Mine - Kenya (p10) - Kenya (p10) = JORC-Compliant MRE = Strategy to increase total resource to >2Moz
> Kilimapesa Hill (p12) = "Mineral Resource Update scheduled for end of Q2 of 2022
• Expected increase in oz
• Expected increase in confidence levels (inferred to indicated)"
> Upcoming Activities (p23) Diagram @June-22 = "MRE update at KPG"

Kilimapesa MRE Update # 2 = end Oct-22
> Upcoming Activities (p23) Diagram @Oct-22 = "2nd MRE upgrade at KPG including batch 4 samples"

Commentary:
IMHO the presentation is telling us to expect Batch #1, 2 and 3 results in MRE Update #1 at end Jun-22 followed by Batch #4 and some regional expansion drill results in MRE Update #2 at end Oct-22. Tellingly we have Kilimapesa JORC resources of 671koz and stated target of 2Moz so considerable upside is expected.
ATB APR

@SoaG Largely academic as the Russians are not selling gold they are still digging it up, buying or or taking it in payment for oil & commodity sales. Russia is using gold to back the Ruble at their Central Bank as it cannot be sanctioned and no counter-party risk plus it can be used to buy stuff they need as they have been shut out of SWIFT.

What it DOES do though is keep a bid under physical gold
ATB APR

@Suggins It is difficult to tell with a 6% holdings cut-off what a fuller picture looks like but in 'broad brush-stroke' terms there has been a very large rotation from original corporate/institutional holders that providing funding to PIs.
ATB APR

@Suggins Oh contraire, it does tell you that 37%+ of PIs have been buying in since Aug-21 launch with Nominee accounts when HNW/PIs represented circa 15% (Heiko Thomas @10.5% & Sylvia Schmidt 3.97%) @launch of GCAT. It also tells us that the same now 37% must have been sold by 'other' entities that held at launch or acquired shares via Feb-22 capital raise, warrants or Management performance shares since launch.

When you adjust for increased number of shares in Jun-22 add in HNWs et al such as Heiko Thomas DEU now @8.37% & RMcCrae @4% (?) then it is not an unreasonable conclusion to say that probably over 50% of GCAT shares are now held by PIs, management and HNW individuals.

IMHO real people making real decisions based on their own research with their own hard-earned money speaks volumes in this market. Institutions just wanting to get their money out and others buying 'real' stuff at good value prices and/or averaging down speaks of 'quiet confidence' to me especially against a very uncertain market background.
ATB APR

@OOSM I love Rick Rule's No Nonsense approach to PGM investing.
I first bought into GCAT when it was 1.1p and was happy ... I have been buying since, all the way down to 0.75p and now I am very happy
ATB APR

TR1 at 4.2% holding from 3.99% ... someone is keen
ATB APR

@Itsyou Normally GCAT spread is reasonably tight as market seems liquid for this share but all it takes is a big order buy/sell to upset this balance as we have seen
ATB APR

Oh and then close the spread and sell your discounted shares back at a decent profit.
I thought this stuff was just reserved for AIM market and not the LSE where GCAT is listed?!
ATB APR

LOL first thing MMs do is set a HUGE wide 0.2p spread or 36% so the SP looks like its has dropped through the floor AND more importantly so they can hover up PIs setting "low, but safe" stops.

Looks like they are after your shares folks and this way they can take them off you at a perfectly legal 18% discount off yesterdays closing price ... nice !
ATB APR

Finally looks like some good news for CCZ shareholders
ATB APR

Awesome opportunity with GUN investing £1m over 4 year farm agreement to get 25% of new Metals One Finland project next to existing profitable battery metals mine (nickel, copper, zinc) with very similar geology.
Nicely played GUN
ATB APR

My strong suspicion is that the MRE will be issued BEFORE the Investor Conference 30-June which means that (1) they can talk about it & (2) they can raise the level of awareness for GCAT with a very positive lift in implied value versus currently depressed SP
AIMHO & ATB APR

@bankrupty I have ZERO urge to sell at these levels as I am a buyer down here ;-))
ATB APR

The drill bit is often called the "truth Machine"
ATB APR

@legalwolf Nicely put
ATB APR

@Legalwolf Exactly my point.
Price is important but growing value, progress & performance is what everyone should be focusing on as this is what will drive future profitability and ultimately the SP when this wider market rout is over.
ATB APR