Member Info for aprogerson

@SeisNav Interesting diagram and helps visualise scale of those open pits to our licences and what might be possible.
ATB APR

Nice healthy bounce after recent deep drilling results as Hasties Deeps 'only' 350m down after punching a 660m hole in their first target. "multiple zones of brecciation and sulphides observed" and "assaying, ... expected within 6-8 weeks" got my attention. Rincon MCap = £4.4m with £1.1m cash and GUN holds 17.34%

RNS Drilling @https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/rcr/9b0cd6bc-f5e.pdf
Presentation May-22: https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/rcr/34749691-ecc.pdf

660m EIS co-funded diamond hole 22STDC002 completed at the Hasties Prospect.
? ‘Hasties Deeps’ target zones1 successfully tested with multiple zones of brecciation and sulphides observed.
? Samples have been submitted to the laboratory for assaying, with results expected within 6-8 weeks.
? The balance of the Phase 2 drilling program, comprising approximately 2,300m of RC drilling, will commence after evaluation and assessment of the diamond drilling results has been completed

I own Rincon in GUN and on ASX directly so I'm biased.
ATB APR

Wow PREM in profit ?! ... that is impressive especially as I lost faith in George Roach years ago after having so many promises broken and lots of my capital destroyed. I wonder if their share in that Potash deposit will ever come to fruition?
ATB APR

My modest holdings are tucked away in my SIPP since Ortac days so I'm in no rush and I won't be selling anytime soon. I managed a 12-Bag on my GGP shares and see no reason why ARC can't do the same as the AAL $74m drilling programme plays out leaving ARC with its 30% free carry and $11m cash from the deal. https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-anglo-american-return-zambia-with-arc-minerals-copper-deal-2022-05-12/

My expectation is AAL will accelerate drilling with aim to prove up at least one Tier 1 target over he next 2-3 years and it will be interesting to see how they move to production given the number of nearby copper production facilities that could be used for toll-milling to achieve an early route to revenue albeit at lower margin.

The parallels with Greatland Gold and NCM at Telfer should not be lost on PIs investing here.
ATB APR

@JC thanks for link @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZNkO3DZr9U Robbie very positive & informative ... my Key Takeaways are:

Who are GCAT & Valuation:
> GCAT is Kenyan Explorer AND Producer @£13m MCap is approx. 1/3rd or similar pure Explorers with no revenue
> Kilimapesa is working licenced underground & opencast mine with $20m plant infrastructure in SP for free
> Prior owner GoldPlats were not miners so minimal exploration in 607koz JORC @Kilimapesa
> Robbie stated he would be a buyer at these cheap levels and expected a strong rerate in SP

Exploration & Resources:
> Spending $300k/month on drilling & funded from cashflow
> Updated JORC due end Q2'22 targeting 2Moz resource at higher confidence as inferred > indicated > measured
> Stated 85RC & 12DD holes in Kilimapesa hill so far with regional drilling starting soon

Production @Kilimapesa:
> Confirmed just under 1koz/month production in Jan-22
> Production Plan lays out month by month route to 24koz/annum by end Dec-22
> AISC $1,200 to $1,250 at 1koz production & will drop as production increases as Fixed costs spread across more ounces
> Heap Leach now 15kt capacity (guess 3x 5kt pads?) with RNS on HL capacity due soon (guess commercial 100kt pad?)
> Heap Leach is low CAPEX & OPEX but trade-off is %recoveries lower than CIL plant (guess 60/70% vs 90%+)

Tanzanian Assets:
> bought from Resolute, deal closing soon & RNS to confirm with clear path to production

Commentary:
(1) Robbie acknowledged he would like to grow GCAT faster BUT very reluctant to use Equity financing to do so as it dilutes current shareholders and he is largest one! This is a big hint to me about use of debt funding which maybe why he is in London to explore Tanzanian mine funding options & costs.

(2) Current Free cashflow (FCF) at 1koz/month & AISC $1,200/1,250 with POG @$1,850 = $600/650 per ounce !
> Low FCF = 1koz x $600 x0.79 = £475k/month profit or £5.75m/year so P/E = 2.26
> High FCF = 1koz x $650 x0.79 = £515k/month profit or £6.2m/year so P/E = 2.1

(3) Target @Dec-22 at 2koz/month & AISC $1,100 (my guess) with POG @$2,000 = $900 per ounce as I am expecting POG to recover strongly into H2 2022 and with bulk of gold produced from HL the AISC will drop as both OPEX drops and fixed costs spread over twice the current ounces ... my target sub $1,100 AISC for GCAT at year end
> Target FCF = 2koz x$900 x0.79 = £1.4m/month or £16.8m/year so P/E = 0.77

(4) Q1'22 production: 54,121t processed at 1.75g/t but no idea how much through CIL@80% recovery or Tailings @52% recovery .... plus Jan-22 production stated as "just under" 1,000oz. Heap Leach was commissioned end Mar-22 but now 15kt/month easily adds 450ozs/month @1.72g/t stockpiled with 53.5% recovery going forward

I topped up again as what is on offer is compelling at these prices with considerable growth, modest $AISC and going lower on higher production with firm and likely strongly growing POG !
ATB APR

ID78 I'm sure Robbie said that Jan-22 was 1koz production so the quarter was far more
ATB APR

@ken On the plus side Rincon popped up 50% on a 550m drill into Hasties deeps near NCM Telfer mine ... awaiting assays but looks mineralised
ATB APR

@Bebeto Highest grades will be going to CIL and lower grades to HL process with CIL tailings then being routed through Tailings plant to recovery circa half of what is left.

This is what I understand the overall setup and recovery is at the moment:
> Main Plant = High grade ROM ore > crush +Mill +grind > CIL@80% > Tailings@52% = 91% overall gold recovery
> HL plant = Lower grade ROM ore > crush > HL Pilot@53.5% = 53.5% overall gold recovery

The "complication" we need to watch out for when looking at these figures is that CIL and Tailings are effectively in series so my prior post shows this "circuit" as 30ktpm throughput when in fact it is the same 15kt ore passing through both circuits giving 30kt processed overall. GCAT are currently ramping up mined ore with 44.8Kt mined in Q1 versus a 45kt "true" plant capacity of 15ktpm passing through CIL +Tailings versus "upto" 90kt process capacity ... what cannot be processed is clearly being stockpiled for future use with lowest grade ore saved for future HL processing as you might expect.
ATB APR

I thought Buyback shares were bought and cancelled decreasing shares in circulation hence increasing SP. AAZ are buying shares to Treasury to sell on so all that changes is ownership and not TVR ... have I misunderstood something?
ATB APR

Lots of really good discussion recently after Q1 Operations Report and how/when we might see 24koz or even 48koz/annum Kilimapesa production. Note: Dec-21 only proved 1koz throughput as 872oz produced !

Current (Q1'22) Production Capacity = 30kt/month as HL pilot not yet producing
> CIL plant: Capacity @500tpd (1x ball mills) = 15kt ore @80% efficiency (Q4'21 figure)
> Tailings plant: Capacity @500tpd (await upgrade) = 15kt ore @52% efficiency (Q4'21 figure)
> HL plant: Capacity @(1x 5kt pilot plant) = 0kt ore @53.5% efficiency(Q1'22 Pilot figure)

Target #1 (Q4'22) Production Capacity = 80kt/month post upgrades with HL online
> CIL plant: Capacity @1ktpd (2x ball mills) = 30kt ore @80% efficiency ... await improved %
> Tailings plant: Capacity @1ktpd (upgraded) = 30kt ore @52% efficiency ... await improved %
> HL plant: Capacity @(4x 5kt pads) = 20kt ore @53.5% efficiency, possibly 60-70% when tweaked
Comments: Stated & funded plant development currently underway but not completed

Target #2 (Q1'23 ???) Production Capacity = 180kt/month with "New" commercial HL Pad
> CIL plant: Capacity @1ktpd (2x ball mills) = 30kt ore @80% efficiency ... await improved %
> Tailings plant: Capacity @1ktpd (upgraded) = 30kt ore @52% efficiency ... await improved %
> HL plant: Capacity @(4x 5kt +100kt pad) = 120kt ore @53.5% efficiency, possibly 60-70% when tweaked
Comments: All stated intentions but also all Work In Progress or planned

Mine Production, Plant Processed, Gold Produced & Cash cost/ounce : Source various RNSs and Align report
Q3'21 (RNS 2-Nov-21) = ???kt mined, 32.2kt ore processed & 1,122oz produced @$985/oz
Q4'21 (RNS 9-Feb-22) = 38.4kt mined, 51.7kt ore processed @1.67g/t & 2,088oz produced @$960/oz
Q1'22 (RNS 20-May-22) = 44.8kt mined, 54.1kt ore processed @1.75g/t & 1,925/2,094oz Est. produced @$860/oz
Comments: Above numbers really do speak for themselves & Q1'22 production estimate is mine from 22-May-22 and Q1 Cash cost was stated in Q4 Ops report but not confirmed in Q1 Ops report.
Note: Gold sales were Q3=1,550oz +Q4=1,047oz & Q1=1.226oz

Commentary:
Lots going on at Kilimapesa in Q1>Q2 with HUGE changes as Open pit comes online, HL Pilot plant commissioning and large capacity HL pad announced on StockBox. Above numbers presented using already reported information, but likely to understate possible production as revised processing plant efficiency and rejigged grades have not yet been announced. GCAT are working to optimise both mine plan & throughput, process (CIL & Tailings) flowsheets/capacity plus add low-cost HL production at scale.

Current bottleneck seems to be ore production and not processing plant capacity as Q1 ore is 54kt versus 90kt plant processing capacity BEFORE plant upgrades come online! Above figures took some digging to work out but all calculated from RNS data (honest) and now show Q1 in a much. much better light!
ATB APR

My best guess is (almost) complete lack of news or updates for RB ... not very encouraging for PIs
ATB APR

@ID78 Just Google Heap Leach cycle as loads of info and diagrams and flowsheets out tehir and really depends on how they run it to get optimal recoveries. I understood that their stated 'test' was a 14-day cycle that gave them 53.5% recovery if they irrigate it for longer the % recovery goes up but at a relatively slower pace giving an S-curve recovery over time ... hence the pilot and the optimisation they are doing.
ATB APR

ID78 Thanks and agreed on HL facility which has gone from:
> 10ktpm or 2 HL pads @RNS 3-Feb-22 Acceleration at Kilimapesa
> 20ktpm or 4 HL pads @RNS 11-Apr-22 HL pad update
> 120ktpm or 4x5kt +1x100kt pads @Stockbox interview 28-Apr-22

We know that pilot plant is currently achieving 53.5% recoveries but this is 'only' after 14 days whereas their plan was a 60-Day cycle and from research I've read a 60% to 70% recovery is more typical for Heap Leach so GCAT are obviously still tweaking their processes for optimal results.

The absolute gamechanger is the Stockbox 'announcement' of a 100ktpm 'commercial' HL pad which if the grade remains at 1.75g/t and 53.5% recovery implies ....
> 120ktpm HL = 120kt x1.75g/t x53.5%/31.1 = 3,600oz/month @53.5% recovery (14 day cycle)
GCAT may opt for a 60-day cycle to boosts %recovery implying 60ktpm or probably 2koz/month throughput as will be on a continuous cycle of load, spray, cook, clear and repeat at higher %recovery.

Summary: If GCAT progress to add 100kt HL facility and planned 60-day leach cycle then 2koz/month HL only production looks very feasible as long as they can scale up the mine plan to provide 60kt/month ROM ore at notional stated 1.75g/t grade. Add a doubling of BOTH CIL plant and Tailings plant to 1ktpm throughput each and you can quickly see GCAT going through 24koz/annum and approaching 50koz/annum quite quickly assuming they can dig enough ore to feed it as ...

Kilimapesa Target Processing (assuming can produce enough ore to feed it) as stated via various RNs looks like:
> CIL plant @1ktpd (2x ball mills) = 30kt ore
> Tailings plant @1ktpd (upgraded) = 30kt ore
> HL plant (100kt-120kt capacity but 60- day cycle) @50/60ktpm ... depending if keep 5kt pilot plants

So IMHO Mine needs to produce 110kt to 120kt/month from underground and new open pit at Kilimapesa versus 44.8kt ore (RNS 20-May-22) produced in Q1 .... a bit more mine development needed hence additional stope and recent mine/reef drives!
My best guess is they'll plump for 60-day HL cycle as they will be limited by mine production until they can scale it up to keep the planned HL 120kt capacity 'monster' fed!
ATB APR

@DVH Yes agreed could have been better BUT gold was produced in Q1.
ID78 and myself tried to work through what this maybe and I came up with "Ops Report Q1'22 - Gold Production" thread from Sunday 22-May-22 based on RNS text of "54,121t of ore (versus 51,732 tons in Q4'21) was processed at an average grade of 1.75g/t Au, resulting in gold sales of.1,226 ounces - an increase of 17% on the previous quarter sales of 1,047 ounces in Q4 2021".
> LOW: Q1 = 1,925oz or 642oz/month average to
> HIGH: Q1 = 2,094oz or 698oz/month average

ID78 also produced a separate slightly higher estimate, but remember plant is being upgraded, optimised and Heap Leach plant/circuit being added which will significantly boost throughput and CIL/Tailings circuits as higher grade material can be processed at higher recovery efficiencies.
It's all good
ATB APR

Morning, just watched Proactive interview and write up as Jan has been on my watchlist for sometime. Anyone got any recommended reading other than RNSs which I'll go through later?
ATB APR

Now taken the time to go through this RNS in detail. Key paragraph is ...
"54,121t of ore (versus 51,732 tons in Q4'21) was processed at an average grade of 1.75g/t Au, resulting in gold sales of.1,226 ounces - an increase of 17% on the previous quarter sales of 1,047 ounces in Q4 2021".

We know 1,226oz gold was sold, but this is NOT production . Given 54kt ore @1.75g/t average was processed so gold was in fact produced albeit not as much as Q4 2021. What is does not say is the mix between CIL and Tailings plant which makes it VERY difficult to work out gold production especially as CIL efficiency is 80% and tailing is 52% (Ref. Q4 Ops report).

1) Production Estimate - assume ore process split is CIL 40% & Tailings 60% as per Q4 Ops report mix
Gold = 54,121 x1.75 x((40% x80%) + (60% x52%))/31.1 =1,925oz or 642oz/month average

2) Production Estimate - assume ore process split is CIL 60% & Tailings 40% ... if Tailings plant was shut for 6 weeks ?!
Gold = 54,121 x1.75 x((60% x80%) + (40% x52%))/31.1 =2,094oz or 698oz/month average

Summary: IMHO estimate 1,900oz to 2,100oz produced in Q1 (or 640oz to 700oz/month) BUT it is an estimate as grade also differs between processes so could effect these figures.

We do know GCAT is optimising and upgrading the main CIL and Tailings plants plus it is introducing Heap Leach pilot plant so this should be no surprise despite some recent panicked posts!
ATB APR

I Missed that ... where can I find the reference to the proposed larger pad?

@RedRoy Hold yours horses !
4x HL pads of 7.5kt capacity = 30Kt/month on 30-Day cycle or 60Kt/month on 14 day cycle so no idea how you get to 100Kt/month unless I'm missing something or you are suggesting a 9-day cycle gives you 53.2% recovery and 100Kt throughput?
ATB APR

@TryToSmile Just remember the TVR and MCap reported here is incorrect as last AGM Notice on GCAT website reports TVR as 1,820m shares in issue so MCap = £13.2m which is cheap for an Explorer with 1.65Moz resources (2Moz with Nyakafuru Reefs when approved)

When you add in a producing gold mine with rapidly growing production of 10.5koz/annum (using Dec-21 figures) at circa $1,050 / $1,150 AISC (RM stated $1,050 versus cash costs Q4 of $860) and a second project ready to proceed to mine build then GCAT starts to look very cheap indeed!
I'll crunch the other numbers later
ATB APR

@AG1989 / ID78 Yes Clearly RNS talks about ore mined and processed but I ran out of time this morning to digest fully as the paired down format of todays Operational Report compared to Q4 threw me somewhat. It is worth pointing out that a cursory read of these things means PIs can often miss difference between gold produced and gold sold especially if RNS does not spell it out.

Heap Leach - there is still some confusion around the HL 'Boiler plate' capacity (7.5kt) , what gets loaded on it (5k) and how long it is left 'cooking' for resulting in gold recovered at %extraction rates. My reading is we have 1st pad now commissioned, but HL is still in 'Pilot' mode so not fully loaded and process flow sheet (chemicals, irrigation, time cooking et al( is still being optimised hence turnaround of only 14 days at 53.2% gold extraction. This implies as more pads are built and process flowsheet optimised then % recoveries will improve but that this is a play off versus ore throughput.
AIMHO & DYOR
ATB APR