Member Info for aprogerson

Q3 and Q4 reports were 5-6 weeks after quarter close and yes I was expecting Q1 2022 Operational report to land today so will be stunned if not issued this week
ATB APR

Thanks Mr%10 an interesting update from Brian Hall:
> Confirmation that new 14km road to MJ useable for heavy trucks
> Tailings processing design done and "acceptable way forward"
> GWMO Focus on getting tailings going ASAP to generate revenue from 50+ tailings dumps @Olympic & MJ
> Drill rig arrives @MJ 17-May-22 to start follow-on drill programme
> Confirmed 3 times that 2022 exploration programme is funded
> RNS due in 6-8 weeks on Tailings plant process, design and costs ... awaiting last quotes to come in

A great place to be for a £5m MCap gold/silver/copper Junior Explorer to be especially as we know:
> Tailings dumps are economic to reprocess
> historic mines were high grade so just need to find additional resources
> GWMO has existing 4.3mt @0.43% JORC copper resource (18.5kt Cu) from 5km drilling and can be expanded but need JV partner to fund additional drilling
ATB APR

@Legalwolf It seems to make little sense selling below 1p when the original Placing price was set at that level unless:
(a) the shares being sold were granted in lieu of prior debt, equity, loan or other payment at a lower effective pre-RTO price
(b) seller just REALLY wants their money out !
ATB APR

Sloppy admin is almost expected on AIM but GCAT is LSE main market
ATB APR

Bonkers SP ... Q1 2022 Operational report due shortly which should confirm 1koz/month gold production at circa $1,000/$1,050 AISC and $860 cash cost plus expansion/infill drilling assays underway.

I just wish this persistent seller would finish up and declare via TR1 so we all know who they were
ATB APR

@AG1989 As we have been saying for a while here GCAT is an Explorer/Developer with a working mine attached to generating significant and rapidly growing free cashflow plus Feb-22 £2m capital raise to fund:
> Step-out & Infill drilling at Kilimapesa main mine to increase current JORC resources & LOM
> Kilimapesa process plant upgrade, expansion and efficiency improvements to accommodate 2koz/annum production
> Kilimapesa mine improvements to increase capacity, efficiency and resilience
> Acquisitions & mine development at Nyakafuru and Simba projects in Tanzania
ATB APR

@Suggins I think everyone here can agree with that and whoever the 'Seller' is they clearly just want their money out ASAP and until they are done the SP will be stuck in this 0.90p to 1p range which if PIs are looking to get it then this is a good opportunity to do so.

GCAT are focusing on getting Kilimapesa production up to 24koz/annum by Dec-22 and everything else is detail & conjecture ...
ATB APR

@Bebeto/ItsYou ... It's me. I am confusing various posts about a possible "capital raise" with these posts about "another acquisition" as hinted at by the Align note.

Simply IMHO GCAT looks like they have more than enough on their plate without further acquisitions at this point in their development. Once Phase 3 development is done and 24koz/annum production rate achieved then the natural question is indeed "What next?"
1) Build mine at Nyakafuru
2) Increase production at Kilimapesa from 24koz to 48koz/annum
3) Bolt on new at/near production acquisition
... whatever they opt for it needs to make economic sense
ATB APR

@bebeto Interesting. I am presuming that the "near production" BFS refers to Nyakafuru, Tanzania, but the Align note "Plus there is also a Kilimapesa look alike which is already in production." does not seem to make sense as there is only Simba which is definitely NOT in production (or anywhere near it) OR something in Kenya already but I am now aware of anything else ???!!!

...Anyone else make any sense of this?

It is possible that Align have just poorly worded this note "Plus there is also a Kilimapesa look alike which is already in production." as it can be read 2 ways ....
(A) Plus there is also a Kilimapesa look alike ....... AND kilimapesa is already in production. = No new news then !
(B) Plus there is also a Kilimapesa look alike ..... AND this lookalike is already in production. = makes no sense !
ATB APR

@Trek Most recent gold bulls have been linked to:
1) recessions and looser CB monetary policy that follows ... recessions slow economy & fights inflation but gold preserves wealth
2) CB talking tough and then not delivering ... US markets factored in 7 rate hikes so let's see
3) Negative real interest rates = %inflation minus nominal interest rates = historic lows
4) Gold earns nothing, but performing better than bonds currently guaranteeing capital losses as yields very low
5) Multiple Bond yield curve inversions ... has signalled every US recession for over 50 years (so far)
... the list goes on
Then add CB aggressively buying gold and silver and/or repatriating their own gold from foreign CBs ... what is it they know that they are not telling us?!
ATB APR

@Bebeto GCAT have one operation at Kilimapesa, but effectively 2 mines one underground and one open pit as per Align Feb-22 note "Highlights from the gold operations included record run of mine (ROM) ore production at Kilimapesa for the quarter, with 38,351t of ore produced from both the underground operations and open pit operations. "
ATB APR

Update on Oyster Transaction
Gunsynd (AIM: GUN, AQSE: GUN) announces that, further to the announcement made on 30 October 2020, the Company has given notice to Sajawin Pty Limited ("Sajawin") to terminate the term sheet and variation terms sheet regarding the disposal of Gunsynd's shareholding in Oyster Oil & Gas Ltd.

As previously announced, if any of the Conditions Precedent were not satisfied by 30 October 2020, then either Party could terminate the Term Sheet and the Variation Term Sheet at which time the Parties' rights and obligations under the Term Sheet and the Variation Term Sheet would immediately cease.

Gunsynd, in conjunction with other shareholders in Oyster, will now seek alternative avenues to monetise the project.

Looks like GUN are fed up waiting for Sajawin to pull tehir finger out and actually do something !
ATB APR

@Burton Thanks and lets hope the commodity sector does some 'reverting to mean' sooner rather than later
ATB APR

@ID78 The latest Resources are listed on Page 9 https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Caracal-presentation-Q1-2022-final-PDF.pdf in summary:

Kilimapesa, Kenya = Active producing circa 10koz/annum underground mine with 671koz resource at 2.4g/t gold subject to extensive refurbishment, modernisation/expansion of mine and processing plant BUT low confidence resources currently being drilled for infill/expansion to drive revised JORC with increased confidence & LOM.

Nyakafuru, Tanzania = Development stage project ready for open pit mine build with 659koz resource at 1.67g/t gold after 186km drilling. No current drill programme. No CAPEX yet raised to build this mine

Nyakafuru Reefs, Tanzania = further 400koz at 3.56g/t subject to new JORC application & no current drill programme. No CAPEX yet raised to build this mine

Simba, Tanzania = Exploration stages project ready for open pit mine build with 320koz resource at 1.4g/t gold & no current drill programme. No CAPEX yet raised to build this mine but is 40km from Nyakafuru project so ore is truckable

Resources In Summary
Kilimapesa +Nyakafuru + Simba = 1.62Moz JORC
Nyakafuru Reefs = 400koz JORC applied for and outstanding
Not sure how an extra 400koz at Nyakafuru Reefs triples the resource?
ATB APR

@legalwolf I have personally addressed the issue of future fund raises at least 3 times plus what other posters have said.

If you can't be bothered reading the RNSs, listening to the interviews or reading this BB then I can't be bothered repeating myself. Just how you can interpret "New Mine" as an existing mine at Kilimapesa is quite beyond me ... please listen to the recent interview which is quite clear.
ATB APR

@BiOiler Dec-21 cash costs were stated as $860/oz and recent StockBox interview with CEO stated AISC estimate of $1,000 to $1,050/oz. Bottom line is production was 875oz in Dec-21 and will be 2koz/month in Dec-22 which should keep AISC steady or even bring it down as operational efficiency continues to increase.
ATB APR

@JC Kenya along with most African countries are in a tough spot and this along with subsidised fuel is to reduce chances of civil unrest especially as food prices will be heading higher and food is a large portion of most families budgets.

GCAT has some protection as it switched to mains power that is predominantly hydropower, but has a large workforce so if a higher minimum wage comes in may be reluctant to employ more staff and may opt for more mechanisation instead.
ATB APR

@bebeto Yes that is my understanding. CLNs can be very dangerous especially if borrower cannot control their SP or something breaks and SP tanks then lender can opt to convert loan into equity at any time then sell into any future SP rise typically to make some extra money ... really nasty being on the receiving end though and lots of PIs avoid businesses with CLNs for that reason.
ATB APR

@header GCAT has recently CANCELLED a CLN, so I cannot imagine that GCAT will want to go this route as CLNs are like Nitro-glycerine and are pretty much funding of last resort. GCAT has raised £7m+ since Aug-21 via Equity raises and has warrants at 1.25p and 2.5p that will raise circa £7.8m.

Trek has already given a number of examples of mining companies with relatively modest £MCaps using debt funding to fund new mines ... another example is Hummingbird based in Mali securing a $100m debt facility from African Development Bank Coris at a modest 7% rate with no payments in year 1. FYI HUM has MCap of 'only' £54m.

There are perfectly good, reasonable alternatives to CLNs or equity raises out there at reasonable rates
ATB APR

@OOSM Yes good point about timing of CFO arrival and Feb-22 £2m capital raise to "Accelerate" Phase 3 development with sole aim of hitting 2koz/month production via plant/mine upgrades, additional process plant capacity and plant/mine efficiency. We know that this was to be funded from Capital raised and production revenue as per RNS.

Timeframe of Phase 3 & 2koz production was Dec-22 & reiterated by Robbie in recent StockBox interview.

It is also worth pointing out that all Directors and especially CFOs have a Fiduciary Duty under UK Law with associated responsibilities as Directors /Officers of a listed entity typically covering :
> Duty of Care
> Duty of Loyalty
> Duty to act lawfully
> Duty to act with/in good faith
As a new CFO in an LSE main market company I am sure he will be very mindful of the above.

We also know from same StockBox interview that Robbie discussed a further Capital Raise after Tanzanian project deal closes in May-22, BUT also went on to discuss possible partial funding of these projects via £8m+ cash raised via existing warrants when they become 'In the money' above SP= 2.5p strike price. IF they do a Capital Raise via equity sale before SP=2.5p then dilution would be higher and they risk SP not reaching 2.5p+ and warrants expiring p***ing off a lots of their core investors & management team.

My 'Best Guess' is BoD will wait until SP is comfortably over 2.5p, warrants have been exercised bring in £8m cash and production is steady state 2koz/month for $3.9m or £3.1m per month revenue. If he wants to do this earlier then BoD needs to ensure that Phase 3 is finished & 2koz/month maintainable ASAP.
AIMHO & DYOR ATB APR