Member Info for aprogerson

@bebeto Whilst I would love 2p that equates to 1,824,474,250 shares x 2p = MCap £36.5m before news which to my mind seems fanciful as last reported production in Dec-21 of 875oz equates to 10.5koz/annum. However given the geopolitics and lack of physical gold/silver available for Joe Public to buy then GCAT seems a very good proxy.

However post-Q1 report what will move the SP/MCap is confirmation of:
> Kilimapesa HL pad#2 is being built <<< Already confirmed !
> Kilimapesa 1koz/month steady state or better production
> Nyakafuru Reefs JORC @400koz resource growth
> Kilimapesa balance of drill assays finding more shallow high grade gold
> Kilimapesa JORC upgrade with increased resources, more metal moved from inferred to indicated category and/or increased Reserves so increasing LOM
ATB APR

@JC I feel that too many investors just cannot see that commodity and PGM demand is rising whilst supply is at best constrained or at worst diminishing plus geo-politics is also coming into play around security of supply. Physical availability of Gold and silver is now on a 6-8 week delivery on coins at CURRENT PRICES and the price of both just got slammed as the markets sold off as margin traders needed cash so they sold gold/silver to get it.

Looking at the charts both gold and silver have plunged to just above long term support so I cannot see this sell off lasting much longer meanwhile GCAT SP has firmed up and we have Q1 2022 report out soon and most likely tomorrow ahead of interview so that they can talk about it openly.

Look at AA just declaring that their reserves are diminishing as they could not replace everything they have mined which points to high likelihood of the Majors looking at M&A as a route to low-risk reserve replenishment ... who knows?
AIMHO ATB APR.

Interesting in that anything new and substantive that they want to talk about should be announced officially via RNS first
ATB APR

Well the SP is looking perky and in danger of breaking out ... target 1.2p if my chart is correct, which given the growth backdrop and recent 8-week consolidation would make a lot of sense.

Assuming SP target of 1.2p achieved then:
> MCap £14.5m @launch to £21.9m = up 51%
> SP 0.95p @launch to 1.2p = up 26.3%
> Shares now = 1,824,978,590 vs. shares @launch = 1,448,425,658 up 26%
Fingers crossed ATB APR

Sorry @Darren "Hope is not a plan" ... even Betts has outdone himself, but if you analyse the awful Q1 AISC of $2,235 and production 15,548oz the FY2022 Guidance figures provided of AISC $1,350 to $1,450 and production 87koz to 97koz are still achievable albeit outperformance looks very unlikely. Q2 results need to be GOOD.

Production: FY2022 Guidance 87koz to 97koz restated
> To meet low 87koz then = (87,000-15,719)/3 = 23,924oz/Quarter over Q2 to Q4
> To meet high 97koz then (97,000-15,719)/3 = 27,274oz/Quarter over Q2 to Q4

AISC: FY2022 Guidance $1,350 to $1,450/oz restated
Using Q1 cost base = $2,235 x15,719oz = $33,925,065 then required gold production is
> @AISC $1,350 = (33,925,065 x4) / $1,350 = 100,518oz production
> @AISC $1,450 = (33,925,065 x4) / $1,450 = 93,586oz production

For comparison at the lower bound of Guidance $1,450 and 87koz:
> Max cost FY2022 = $1,450 x 87,000 = $140.65m
> Max cost 'Available' to go = $140.65 - $33,926,065 = $106.7m or $106.7m/3 = $35.6m per quarter

If Betts and Co cannot achieve minimum FY Guidance that then there is something very, very wrong ,,, it's not pretty but it is achievable and to redeem themselves they need to try much harder!
ATB APR

OUCH ! .... words loss for

I normally read RNSs at least twice but not today as I just cannot seem to get past AISC $2.2k
ATB APR

@ella I suspect Ruffles was right that they would not have 'chosen' the path they took, but their fiduciary responsibilities as Directors /Officers of a listed entity trumped any such personal choice as under UK Law directors have a fiduciary duty typically covering :
> Duty of Care
> Duty of Loyalty
> Duty to act lawfully
> Duty to act with/in good faith

IMHO I suspect given the direct/indirect activities we have seen concerning trying to wrest control of some /all of ARC licences/interests that the BoD took a decision to 'hold their noses' and settle rather than pursue further doubtless expensive and time consuming legal action that would have come with a large loss of 'Opportunity' costs as any 'deal' would have been extremely unlikely whilst litigation was in progress.
I guess we will find out soon enough!
ATB APR

We live in hope, but as hope is not a plan I've reported my own post to LSE so that they update the TVR as per AGM Notice @18-Mar-22 = 1,824,978,590 = number of shares listed in Note 2 of AGM Notice (page 3)
ATB APR

Revised post (thanks Itsyou)
The LSE and London South East 'shares in 'issue' or Total Voting Rights (TVR) are BOTH incorrect as figures in Public Domain are:
LSE main market = 132,400,000 = was number of shares in Papillion prior to GCAT listing Aug-21
London South East = 1,448,425,659 = number of shares at listing @31-Aug-21 (prospectus p113)
RNS @7-Dec-21 = 1,615,332,001 Ref: section 7: Admission and TVR
AGM Notice @18-Mar-22 = 1,824,978,590 = number of shares listed in Note 2 of AGM Notice (page 3)

Shares Issuance between 31-Aug-21 and AGM 18-Mar-22
> 31-Aug-31 Shares @issue = 1,448,425,658
> 7-Dec-21 Shared issued = 166,903,343 Consultants & purchase of drill rigs
> 7-Dec-21 Shares @issue = 1,615,332,001 Revised TVR via 7-Dec-21 RNS
>10-Feb-22 Director Warrants = 15,000,000
>14-Feb-22 £1.7m Capital Raise = 177,048,592 (£1.7m @0.95p)
>14-Feb-22 £300k Capital Raise = 24,000,000 (HNW £300k @1.25p)
Sum Calculated Issuance = 1,831,380,593 @14-Feb-22
Delta to AGM Notice = 6,402,003 ... shares declared in issue, but I cannot account for !!!

Funds Raised
> 31-Aug-21 LSE @0.95p = £4,893,082
> 10-Feb-22 Director Warrants = £150.000
> 14-Feb-22 £1.7m @0.95p = £1,681,961 ... fees unknown
> 14-Feb-22 £300k @ 1.25p = £300,000
Sum funds raised = £7,475,846 minus 14-Feb-21 costs

Management Incentives & Warrants issued vs. sold/production declared (Prospectus p111)
> 20% @300oz achieved Aug-21 as 526oz sold = 30m shares & 30m warrants
> 20% @600oz achieved Nov-21 as 646oz sold = 30m shares & 30m warrants
> 20% @900oz achieved Nov-21 as 636oz sold = 30m shares & 30m warrants
> 20% @1,200oz not yet achieved ???
> 20% @1,500oz not yet achieved ???
So latest info from Q4 report = Possible 90m shares and 90m warrants issued to Management

Outstanding Warrants & Incentives ... Ref prospectus p31 & various RNS
> Founder Warrants = 5,000,000 ... was 20m as 15m sold RNS @10-Feb-22 @1p strike & expire 24-Jun-22
> Placing warrants = 313,833,971 @2.5p strike & expire 31-Dec-22
> Mgt Incentives = 150,000,000 ... 90m issued to date?
> Mgt Warrants = 150,000,000 ... 90m issued to date? @1p strike & expire 31-Dec-22
> Consultant warrants = 41,725,836 @2.5p strike & expire 31-Dec-22 ... issued RNS @7-Dec-21
Summary = 660,559,807 outstanding but subject to clarification

Commentary:
The LSE and London South East declared shares in issue are BOTH badly wrong so stated MCap figures is also incorrect as you can see above from official sources so NOT opinion. GCAT needs to separate out TVR RNSs as most other companies do to avoid confusion as TVR is opaque at best without lots of digging.

Current GCAT MCap = 0.95p x 1,824,978,590 =£17.34m
IMHO the very good news is that the bulk of the Placing & Mgt warrants = 355,559,807 have a 2.5p strike price & expire 31-Dec-22 for £8.89m new cash if exercised so a win-win for everyone if SP above 2.5p achieved.
ATB APR

@Itsyou thanks for digging that out as it was buried at back of RNS @7-Dec-21 "Delivery on East African Gold Strategy" section 7. Admission and Total Voting Rights. I'll rejig my post as its useful information to have in one place for others on BB to refer to as it has to be pieced together to get the full picture as you can see !
ATB APR

@appletree Following up on prior discussions it is clear that both LSE and London South East 'share in 'issue' or Total Voting Rights (TVR) are BOTH incorrect ...
TVR figures in Public Domain:
LSE main market = 132,400,000 = was number of shares in Papillion prior to GCAT listing Aug-21
London South East = 1,448,425,659 = number of shares at listing @31-Aug-21 (prospectus p113)
AGM Notice @18-Mar-22 = 1,824,978,590 = number of shares listed in Note 2 of AGM Notice (page 3)

Shares Issuance between 31-Aug-21 and AGM 18-Mar-22
> 31-Aug-31 Shares @issue = 1,448,425,659
>10-Feb-22 Director Warrants = 15,000,000
>14-Feb-22 £1.7m Capital Raise = 177,048,592 (£1.7m @0.95p)
>14-Feb-22 £300k Capital Raise = 24,000,000 (HNW £300k @1.25p)
Sum Declared Issuance = 1,664,474,250 @14-Feb-22
Delta to AGN Notice = 160,504,340 ... shares declared in issue, but I cannot account for !!!

Funds Raised
> 31-Aug-21 LSE @0.95p = £4,893,082
> 10-Feb-22 Director Warrants = £150.000
> 14-Feb-22 £1.7m @0.95p = £1,681,961 ... fees unknown
> 14-Feb-22 £300k @ 1.25p = £300,000
Sum funds raised = £7,475,846

Management Incentives & Warrants issued vs. sold/production declared (Prospectus p111)
> 20% @300oz achieved Aug-21 as 526oz sold = 30m shares & 30m warrants
> 20% @600oz achieved Nov-21 as 646oz sold = 30m shares & 30m warrants
> 20% @900oz achieved Nov-21 as 636oz sold = 30m shares & 30m warrants
> 20% @1,200oz not yet achieved ???
> 20% @1,500oz not yet achieved ???
So latest info from Q4 report = Total 90m shares and 90m warrants issued to Management

Warrants & Incentives ... Ref prospectus p31
> Founder Warrants = 20,000,000 ... 15m sold 10-Feb-22
> Placing warrants = 313,833,971
> Mgt Incentives = 150,000,000 ... 90m issued to date
> Mgt Warrants = 150,000,000 ... 90m issued to date
Summary = 618,833,971 @LSE launch 31-Aug-21

Commentary:
GCAT reporting of TVR, warrants issued and/or even shares issued for 14-Feb-22 is at best poor plus LSE and London South East declared shares in issue is badly wrong so stated MCap figures is also incorrect as you can see above from official sources so NOT opinion.

Current GCAT MCap = 0.95p x 1,824,978,590 =£17.34m
Data subject to revision once Q1 2022 Operational report is issued
ATB APR

@Predator LOL try 1.14p average ,,, I'm still here and very positive
ATB APR

@Pompal Both Gold & Silver were slammed down as CBs don't want 'real' money to appreciate in value and show up the 'fiat' giant printing machine system for what it is.

Please bear in mind that the spread on GCAT buy/sell is 8-10% anyway so please consider this is part of your 'paper loss'.
ATB APR

Rincon dropped 18% overnight after 2 RNSs issued ...
(1) Director buys more shares and now holds 5.5% stock
(2) Historic drill results identify new shallow 2km Copper/gold anomaly supported by aerial results at Hasties

Go figure Hasties is relatively shallow and just 12-14km from existing underused copper/gold processing plant at Telfer!
ATB APR

@Bebeto Appletree and I have been calling this out for a while now as London South East (LSE) number of shares in issue did not tally up so MCap figure quoted has been incorrect for weeks
ATB APR

@appletree Yes thanks for that ... I had pointed out before I though the shares number was wrong but I did not have the correct figure nor does LSE either! Your MCap figure of £17.34m makes more sense and therefore represents a circa 20% increase in GCAT value since Aug-21 LSE launch albeit not yet represented in the SP given that there are now more shares in circulation.
ATB APR

@Magoo It's a tough question and IMHO I think it is because we still have lots of sell side pressure hence the 7-week sideways consolidation between 0.95p and 1.025p on the weekly chart (it cuts out the noise!) with a couple of spikes down to 0.875p putting in a nice double-bottom ... this says to me that there were a LOT of buyers below the LSE issue price of 0.95p which makes sense given the value on offer here

Using my fag packet calculations below even at Dec-21 875oz or 10.5Koz/annum equivalent production this still equates to around $11m or £8.5m FCF assuming $860 costs and $1,900 POG or P/E=1.8 ... which is my mind is the absolute worst case and still implies significant upside as just a 50% increase in gold production from 10.5koz annualised rate @Dec-21 to 18koz annualised rate @Dec-22 assuming $989 costs (or+15%) drives P/E=0.83 demonstrating just how highly geared junior producers can be. The added bonus for GCAT which is often missed now they switched over to Kenyan mains power which is largely Hydro so hopefully shields them from some of the diesel costs other producers will be exposed to.
ATB APR.

@Itsyou LOL thanks, that will teach me for not checking before posting. So £15m MCap on LSE launch and £7m cash raised with MCap still sat at around £15m despite bulk of cash being deployed to upgrade operation and gold production already doubled Aug-21 to Dec-21.
... about time MCap started reflecting some of the shareholder value being generated, imminent Q1'22 report should help
ATB APR

@Magoo Not sure where you are going with "clearly the market does not trust the company. Until we get an update on production, revenues, cash in the bank, eventual need for additional financing, large investors will not commit."
> Funding ... GCAT has raised £5m in Aug-21 & a further £1m in Feb-22 to accelerate to 24koz/annum including II investment
> Production Now ... we hit 872oz production in Dec-21 or over 10.5koz/annum equivalent up form 455oz or 5.5koz/annum in Jul-21 so have already doubled production in 6 months to Dec-21 from Aug-21 LSE listing
> Production Due ... (re)stated plan is to hit 2koz production or 24koz/annum in Q4'22
> News ... Q1'22 production report to end Mar-22 now due

Commentary:
WRT additional financing I would agree that equity financing may be needed, but GCAT has very healthy revenue from a minimum 10.5koz/annum Producer heading to 24koz/annum within 6-8 months at cash cost of $860/oz which equates to significant free cashflow especially at $1,900+ POG.

Assuming Jan-22=1koz and conservative steady state increase to 2koz in Dec-22 equates to average 1.5koz/month in 2022 and then steady state 2koz/month thereafter in 2023.
Gold production 2022 = 12x 1.5koz = 18koz minimum @$1,900 = $34.2m or £26.3m (USD=0.77GBP)

Cash Cost @Jan-22 = $860 (Q4 cash cost $960 minus $100 power cost savings) based on 875oz Dec-21 throughput
Base annual Cash Costs @Jan-22 @$860 = 12x $860 x 875oz = $9m fixed costs of production in Dec-21
Lets assume 15% cost increase ($989/oz) due to HL & CIL extensions (Staff & power) so Annual Cash costs 2022 = $10.8m

Free cashflow 2022 = $34.2m revenue - $10.8m fixed costs= $23.4m or £18m @average 1.5koz throughput
Free cashflow 2022+ at 2koz/annum = (12x 2,000x $1,900) =$45.6m - $10.8m fixed costs = $34.8m or £26.8m

IMHO I think GCAT can do a lot with £18m FCF in 2022 assuming they only get $1,900 POG with every $50 increase equating to another 5% or £700k FCF in 2022.

GCAT are in a very good position assuming they follow through with stated plan or put it another way at projected £18m FCF in 2022 vs current £15m MCap they are trading on implied P/E of 0.83. IF GCAT gets more than $1,900 POG or hits 2koz earlier than Dec-22 this position improves rapidly as cash generation increases, but will decrease if cash costs rise above $989/ounce produced hence why I've used averages as they will have some outages as they upgrade plant.

For comparison Shanta P/E=7.6x & HUM P/E=4.5x ... you do the math !
ATB APR

@PP or put it another way when compared to similar producers we are at least 30% undervalued with both Tanzanian projects thrown in for free.

Moving from 10koz/annum to 24koz/annum by Dec-22 should cause a 2-3x rerate as we also benefit from economies of scale at higher production rate.
ATB APR