Member Info for aprogerson

Looks like change for POG is coming as Russia says it will accept Roubles and Gold for its gas !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V72flBlWn6Y

@jersey Yes what this says to me is that GCAT is a very healthy market with lots of buyers and sellers BUT because we know that there is someone unloading a lot of shares the price is not moving. This is fantastic for us PIs giving us a stable price to accumulate at and a low +/-3.5% effective spread. So enjoy while it lasts ... we have had shares available for 3 weeks now in a very narrow range of 0.925p to 1.0p (intraday 0.90p to 1.05p) & when they are gone the 'for sale' sign will be taken down.

I'm expecting Q1 2022 Operations report early May-22 as the last 2 quarterly reports have taken about 5 weeks to be published. The main things I am looking to be confirmed are:
> Cash cost $860/ounce reflecting cheaper energy from Dec-21 when mains hydro power hooked up
> Confirmation Q1= 3.5koz/quarter gold production vs. Q3=1.55Koz & Q4=2.09koz implying minimum Q1 of 2.7koz if output static at Dec-21 rate of 872oz production which seems unlikely given new 5ktpm HL pad now operational
> Confirmation of Nyakafuru 400koz gold JORC extension to 1.1Moz
> Confirmation of some/all 13km infill and expansion drilling at Kilmapesa mine
Lots of good stuff to come
ATB APR

Looks like GWMO have been very busy over winter completing 591 line km of IP surveys and considerable photo surveys including those of historic tailings dumps in order to complete a volumetric analysis leading to a gold/silver JORC estimate.
ATB APR

@hodeyd Yes we sometimes see larger trades come through after hours the same day or sometimes the following day

I really like Northstar Badcharts and their sane/understated approach to charting and explanation/narrative. This video on recent chart moves across DXY and commodities driving inflation really gave me pause for thought https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AztXuwd748k

I also recently came across a session they did with Blackbeard discussing commodities and his take on Gold is at 30m on this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlDU-SQ2va0

@Jersey I can't help but agree. We have had unprecedented supply shocks with Covid, Ukraine & Russia on top of demand shocks driven by Covid and reopening plus supply chain shocks driven by Covid and now the fuel crisis. CB tell us inflation is the highest in 30-40 years, but if you use the calculations from that time (see Shadowstats) then CPI inflation is actually 15%+ on a like-for-like basis which implies purchasing power halves every 5 years.

Silver is an industrial metal and yet is 50% of prior $50 peak 20 years ago and should be $150+ applying inflation and gold is now sat around Aug-2011 peak of $1,916 11 years ago whilst money supply and inflation has exploded. Gold and silver paper markets dwarf physical metal markets due to 100:1 or more leverage supressing price discovery of the actual metals whilst inventories tighten and other commodities fly.

This situation is just not sustainable with purchasing power being eroded people have now waking up to the danger as demand for gold/silver metal rises and will eventually rocket and miners will explode due to their leverage to the underlying metals prices. Gold is not even twice its $1,062 low @Nov-2015 whilst prior 3x PM bull runs since 1970 have typically seen 6-8x rises implying $6,300 to $8,500 gold at the very least. At some point CBs will need to let gold/silver prices rise if nothing else to remain solvent as they raise interest rates to chase strong inflation.

Today PM miners trade on historically low P/E multiples yet chuck off huge amounts of FCF and the Majors are paying huge dividends whilst not replacing lost ounces they are mining as they divested most of their exploration plays as they cleared out their balance sheets over the last 6-8 years..

GCAT is a high growth play with near-term development prospects all funded by FCF as it it turns around an existing production facility backed up by considerable ounces in the ground purchased way below the typical $/ounce price. £14m MCap and 1.6Moz resource across 3 projects = $11.6/ounce resources with 400koz Nyakafuru JORC currently awaiting confirmation and 13km expansion/infill drilling underway at Kilimapesa.

PM miners are the 'value' poster child stocks and yet they are hated and derided .... this will change and when it does the change will likely be very fast ... GCAT is well placed to grow MCap 2-3x even if POG stays at $1,850 with a low cash cost of production so high margins and hence very healthy FCF to fund further growth.
AIMHO & DYOR ATB APR

@vents GCAT has no debt financing but £7.5m new cash has been raised since Aug-21 (£5.5m @RTO +£2m Feb-22 capital raise) whilst any pre-existing 'debt' was converted into equity as part of the RTO.

Apologies it might have been me referring to possible future full/partial 'debt financing' as part of any new mine build at the Nyakafuru project in Tanzania, but of course this depends on how fast tehy want to develop this and what the free cashflows at Kilimapesa will be.
ATB APR

I am very pleased I took another 500k shares yesterday and will need to recalculate my projections as the extra 10ktpm HL capacity plus confirmation of the first 5ktpm HL having been commissioned increases throughput as well as bringing forward date GCAT should hit 1koz and then 2koz/month production from my conservative May-22 and Dec-22 targets.
ATB APR

Price resistance is currently 1.025p plus downtrend resistance from Oct-2021 also at 1.025p.

Hopefully we can now push through this resistance and retest as support confirming that we have a valid double-bottom also in at 0.90p and that this is behind us.
ATB APR

@Itsyou You beat me to it ... prior info gave 10ktpm whereas this is 20ktpm and first of 4x Heap Leach has been completed and commissioned which is well ahead of when I was expecting it to come onstream and significantly boosts operational efficiency as lower grade can be diverted to HL driving up production volumes as well.

Given Q1 operational report is due in next 3-4 weeks this is definitely a fantastic RNS and MMs dropped price to scare any twitchy PIs that maybe left !
ATB APR

Would be good to get a couple of TR1s so we get confirmation of who the buyer/seller is in the background. My best guess is GoldPlat selling out their stake to release cash to reinvest in their main business and one of the existing IIs and/or HNW making the most of the situation to build a bigger stake here.
For every seller there must be a buyer or the MMs would go out of business very quickly!
ATB APR

Looks like we have hit resistance at 1.025p as well as downtrend resistance so will take some sustained buying pressure for any sustained break through especially if big seller is not yet finished. We might end up in a sideways accumulation phase between 0.90p and 1.025p until they are done and/or Q1 operational update lands
ATB APR

@SW I do hope you're right as my PF has not had a good 18 months and could do with a bit of a lift
ATB APR

So will we get the 'normal' daily drop to flush & shake, cycle and finish high again today whilst someone is selling in the background?
Accumulate while you can
ATB APR

@RP GCAT made 1.7p shortly after listing when producing 250oz/month and 3x development phases were just planned and they had £6m cash burning a hole in tehir pockets. At end Dec-21 they had tripled production to 750oz/month and proven 1koz throughput and by Feb-22 raised another £2m and accelerated phase 3 targeting 2koz/month production whilst adding an development stage project and an advanced exploration project with combined 1Moz JORC resources.

Curiously the MCap has not moved despite considerable derisking whilst POG is now at $1,900 vs $1.800 at RTO in Aug-21 plus costs have dropped $100/oz, so profitablity is now $200/oz more. I think a bit more good news especially if Q1 operations confirm $100 or more savings and/or good drill assays and/or Nyakafuru 400koz JORC confirmed and/or 1koz/month production confirmed then this should recover back to 1.5/1.7p double quick.

Go figure why MCap is static ... I blame the seller but thank them for letting me in at such a good price!
ATB APR

@RP 10p by Friday would be sublime, but I suggest you check your best Hat recipes sooner rather than later :-)
ATB APR

Same again on gold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4udZ_6AvbbE

I love these guys NorthStarBadCharts on DXY ... awesome stuff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTqfDAF4Ovw

@Damo I like the reopening narrative at Bunkerhill being a historic prolific silver & primary metals mine with considerable existing underground mine infrastucture once this has been dewatered if bit already completed.
... of course you also have exposure Bunkerhill via HUM which I think owns 10% as an early investor which CEO, Dan Betts kept very quiet.
ATB APR

Regardless of my view on POG it is clear that inflation will be higher for longer and CBs cannot support higher interest rates to fight inflation as they did in the early 1980s as it will break many western and EM governments with historically high debt/GDP levels as they just cannot afford higher debt interest payments.

The 'sweet spot' for me is low MCap Gold/silver producers with substantial near-term development and exploration pipelines funded by an existing operating mine with modest to high production costs and some debt in stable jurisdictions. These operations are shunned as investors don't like debt and high AISCs as FCF might be strong but not as strong as others that trade on higher P/E multiples as sentiment is stronger and investors will pay more for lower perceived risk and higher FCF which is natural over more 'marginal' producers.

My main 3 investments are with GCAT, HUM and AAZ which all fit my 'sweet spot' profile and all have substantial near-term development/expansion prospects funded by internal FCF plus substantial high-grade exploration potential. Curiously all 3 are more-or-less priced on current production only so development/exploration projects are thrown in for free at current low P/E multiples in a dark corner of a hated sector.

What a lot of investors miss is that PGM producer are highly geared to the metals prices on the way down which is why sentiment is currently so poor since Aug-2020 POG high, but that gearing on the way up disproportionally favours producers with high AISC and debt as FCF multiples up quicker than higher MCAP/lower AISC producers. With higher inflation now with us, fuel costs will also play a big part of miners cost base so those producers with hedging strategies to contain fuel cost rises will do even better (HUM=new solar plant & GCAT=Hydro powered mains linkup) as these costs will likely rise more slowly if at all.
AIMHO & DYOR
ATB APR