Member Info for aprogerson

LOL with all my other gold/silver plays moving up, perhaps someone wants some GWMO at a bargain price so MMs drop the Ask? This will turn soon enough
ATB APR

$2k POG has now arrived and silver has convincingly broken out from $25.5. Next POG target is $2,035 ATH expected very shortly

I like GWMO as it is exposed to both Gold and silver with a fully funded exploration programme which should kick off in the next 3-4 weeks
ATB APR

@MM IMHO there is 0% chance of FED doing 4 rate hikes now without breaking stuff like stock, housing or bond markets
ATB APR

POG and Silver have both convincingly broken out and are continuing to spike with PPI being reported is astronomic in Europe and US, so we can safely assume that this will drive CPI inflation higher still.

Good for POG and commodities but little else. Commodity producers and GUN now playing catch up
ATB APR

Sensible appointment of Kenyan Ex-Tanzanian diplomat and Ex-Mining Kenyan minister. Hopefully will help steer GCAT through licencing maze
ATB APR

Q1 Operational results due in 4-5 weeks will be telling as:
> will include large chunk of ongoing 3km DD & 10km RC drilling results
> Possible upgraded JORC @Nyakafuru reefs adding 406koz from 658koz to 1,058koz resource

MCap same as Aug-21 relaunch and since refurbished mine, refurbished process plant, confirmed Phase 2 plan complete, raised £2m funds to accelerate phase 3 (target 2koz/month), tripled gold production to 2koz/quarter, cut cash cost by $120/ounce and doubled resources!
... but other than that just sat on our hands :-)

Go figure ATB APR

@DB Usually weak Dollar helps POG more as it takes more weaker dollars to buy the same ounce of gold, but these are strange times
ATB APR

Week ending on massive hammer candle breaking through $1,960 resistance.
Monday open will doubtless be driven entirely by events in Ukraine
ATB APR

Second assault on $1,960 resistance from Nov-20/Jan-21 underway
Good luck POG :-))

POG sat at around $1,952 already ... key level is around $1,960 then ATH at $2,035
ATB APR

Most of market marked down by at least 3-5% and GCAT is no different. We have rising gold production revenues, falling cost/ounce, rising POG and rising resources in the pipeline.

GCAT value is just fine it is just the price that has been marked down nothing more ... if only I had waited a week I'd have 10% more shares!
ATB APR

Hrrmm I'm confused now. If ST interview is in fact old then that would explain drill progress inconsistencies

@AG I'd agree ... all very inconsistent, but at least we know its progressing as pace and either we can expect an RNS correcting it or this one stands!

Go figure indeed ...
Rincon drilling season will be opening up shortly and their SP is already firming up in anticipation with a deep drilling target identified at Hasties for first 2 holes
ATB APR

Apologies just looking at my numbers again to compare Q3 2021 annualised production with forecast production of 24koz at end Q4 2022 reiterated on today ShareTalk PodCast ...
> Q3 2021 @1.550koz so annualised production = 6.2Koz actual with MCap=£14.5m SP = 1p cost $980/oz
> Q4 2021 @2.088koz so annualised production = 8.4Koz actual with MCap=£16.4m SP = 0.975p cost $960/oz
> Q1 2022 @2.5koz (my forecast) so annualised production = 10Koz forecast with MCap=£16m cost $860/oz
> Q4 2022 @6koz so annualised production = 24Koz forecast with MCap=£XXXm SP = XXp cost less than $860/oz

By my calculations that is an 4x increase in production over a 15 month period and $120/oz cost reduction confirmed so far having has POG rise by $130/oz since LSE listing implying $250/oz INCREASE in profitability/ounce for current gold sales whilst production throughput rises steeply which itself will drive down costs/ounce!
Wow, just got to love junior miners especially as outcome on stuff they have control over is improving rapidly
AIMHO & DYOR ATB APR

Interesting listen to ShareTalk Pod Cast:
https://www.share-talk.com/caracal-gold-plc-aimgcat-appointment-of-group-mineral-resource-manager/#gs.s8m5u8
> BoD changes still WIP with recent very experienced appointments
> 10km RC and 3km DD drilling results in next 3-4 weeks on Kilimapesa hill infill & expansion drill programme
>> 15 holes on RC @1,500m and 3 holes on DD
> Share Price ... not much change, but volatile 1p to 1.9p over last 5 months despite dramatic improvements but expect rerate to reflect materials changes to date including 1Moz increase in Resources plus huge gains on gold production
> ShareTalk webinar planned
> Planned Heap Leach will further reduce current $860 cash costs/ounce as will increase ROM grade through main plant

Looks like POG is making a breakout to the upside this morning @$1,935 from its current week long bull flag.
Next target $1,960
ATB APR

GCAT joined LSE on 31-Aug-2021 with "638,951,276 Placing Shares completed in two rounds at a placing price of £0.01 per share, implying a market capitalisation of circa £14.5 million". Capital moves, SP and MCap since:
31-Aug-21 >> SP=1.0p issuing 668m new shares with 1,448m shares & MCAP = £14.5m with £5.5m cash raised
14-Feb-22 >> Issued 117m new shares. SP=1.05p with 1,565m shares & MCAP = £16.4m with £2m cash raised @0.95p
4-Mar-22 >> SP=1.025p with 1,565m shares & MCAP = £16m ... cash £no info
Note: LSE showing 1448m shares @ £15m MCap when additional 177m shares issued on 14-Feb-22 but GCAT Corporate presentation showing 1,615m shares in issue but no official statement of shares in issue as neither looks correct!

Gold production:
Using a mixture of actual production @kilimapesa and my forecast based on accelerated Phase 3 production to 2koz/month in 6 months as per RNS 14-Feb-2022. I'm assuming 24koz steady state production will be achieved a little later in Q4 2022 given profile to date:
>> Q3 2021 @1.550oz
>> Q4 2021 @2.088oz
... and assuming forward profile Q1 @2.5koz +Q2 @3koz +Q3 @4koz +Q4 @6koz

Production Actual vs. Forecast:
Using GCAT actuals & my forecast figures that implies our annualised production rate looks something like:
> Q3 2021 @1.550koz so annualised production = 6.2Koz actual with MCap=£14.5m
> Q4 2021 @2.088koz so annualised production = 8.4Koz actual with MCap=£16.4m
> Q1 2022 @2.5koz so annualised production = 10Koz forecast with MCap=£16m
> Q2 2022 @3koz so annualised production = 12Koz forecast
> Q3 2022 @4oz so annualised production = 16Koz forecast
> Q4 2022 @6koz so annualised production = 24Koz forecast

Commentary:
GCAT MCap has increased 10% since LSE listing & reboot 6 months ago albeit SP is static reflecting £2m cash raise and 177m extra shares in circulation. However gold production has gone up 30% in Q4 and is forecast to almost triple over the next 6 months from 8.4koz/annum rate to 24koz/annum rate. POG was $1,800 in Aug-21 and is now $1,930 whilst cash costs of production dropped $60 with another $100 costs taking savings to $160/oz expected in Q1 results in 6 weeks time.

IMHO I've not seen many more compelling junior producers with significant near term growth opportunities in a very long time.
AIMHO ATB APR

I should have taken that £5k top up when it was back down at 0.1p