Member Info for aprogerson

@BT Lots of work already done with partial backing of CB currency using gold at say $35-50k an ounce gives plenty of headroom for credit growth. Read "New Case for Gold" J Rickards however probably needs to be nearer $50k/oz as he wrote the book 4 years ago and the Fed has been very busy since! Helpfully even at 50:1 silver would then be $1k/oz so everyone is happy
ATB APR

@Travelcard Please explain how 2x large buys makes it a "Placing Alert" given strong $3m+ cash position, $1.5m cash coming in over next 6 weeks from CASA and possible deal with cash involved ? If by any remote chance you know more than we do this is your chance to share and bring us all up to speed
ATB APR

@Daniel I would not fret too much even at SP 1.4p please read the Align report which I think is conservative especially given it was issued BEFORE Phase 3 acceleration was announced @9-Feb-22 meaning that their base case of 2.7p fully diluted should come forward 3-6 months which brings forward free cashflow (FCF) which in turns makes more money available to accelerate activities further.

We have been in consolidation mode for a couple of weeks and already have seen Orca go from 5% to 9% holding underpinning demand especially as they are 'sticky hands'.
ATB APR

GWMO will move above 0.185p as exploration season starts as punters will want to take a position given that GWMO is a sub £5m microcap. IF GWMO hit anything substantial and/or produce a decent JORC for any of tehir gold/silver licences then the price will take off
ATB APR

Given the speed that this is unfolding across numerous activities I cannot imagine there will be long to wait especially given that we have 3km of DD infill drill results from Kilimapesa due in Q1 that should form basis of an update of current 671koz JORC.
ATB APR

Just looking back at GWMO chart and 0.165p is downtrend resistance from Jul-2019 ATH (since pivot to gold/silver in Nov-2018) and Oct-2020 high.

North of 0.165p if sustained will be an SP breakout, so fingers crossed and nice to see some positive SP action
ATB APR

There was a This is Money article on GWMO talking about risk off assets citing GWMO as a hidden gem hence flurry of interest over last few days that McAdder dug out ...

SMALL CAP SHARE IDEAS: Is Great Western Resources the forgotten nugget of the latest gold rush?
By Ian Lyall At Proactive Investors For Thisismoney.co.uk @28 Feb 2022
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-10560079/amp/SMALL-CAP-SHARE-IDEAS-Great-Western-Resources.html

FED planned tightening via 4x 0.25% interest rates hikes plus planned ending of QE in next few weeks followed by QT thereafter is looking increasingly untenable without breaking something!

Looking more like FED pin meeting US stock +bond +property super-bubbles
ATB APR

WOW ... that's a lot of upwards pressure on CPI coming down the line !

GWMO is now back in its prior 0.12p to 0.185p range since dropping to 1p in Dec-21. 200DMA is sat just below prior resistance at 0.185p so that is a reasonable expectation that this is where we are now heading which is approx. 30% bump up from 0.1425p
ATB APR

Good to see some positive buying action over the last 2-3 days as POG gets perky and exploration season approaches
ATB APR

Yes add in China disclosing how much gold it really holds across its off-balance sheet organisations and I think the ''gold window' of buying physical gold cheap below $2k will rapidly close ... couple that with rising inflation driven by steeply rising energy costs on top of a triple bubble in stocks, bonds and property plus declining real incomes and it gets ugly fast.
ATB APR

@bonker "just wait until Russia says it's only selling O&G for Gold at some point - oops! :D"

I was having that exact same discussion on AAZ which seems especially pertinent given sanctions on Russia EXCLUDE O&G. If they move to settling energy sales in Gold then POG may get 'interesting' very fast especially as Russia provides some 10-15% of the worlds energy and 25-30% of its nickel. Russia hold 40%+ of their CB assets in gold in Russia so they have no counterparty risk the balance of currency reserves held largely abroad with some 17% outside sanctioned countries in China so the Rouble is not in a good place!
ATB APR

@CJ66 LOL, I thought I was having a discussion ! I made no personal remarks, asked several questions and merely posited a theory which you can go an check on Jim Rickards who's views and commentary is available via several You/Tube sites and used to advise US government on Game theory in just such situations. Please check The Market Ear (TME) @Zero/Hedge and/or Palisades Gold Radio YT channel for commentary on Russian Gold purchase versus Dollar treasuries held over time graphs.

Gold will be used as Reserves and with other CB assets held abroad in US, UK, France and Japan frozen they will be looking to add gold not sell it. I think they have a minimum of 40% of Russia's CB reserves in gold (seems high but their GDP is similar to Spain/Italy) held in Russia so they have no counterparty risk. They are also frozen out of dollar trading so to sell their oil and gas they may have no choice but to insist on payment in gold, Yuan or Roubles and China may yet decide not to play. Russia supplies 10-15% of the worlds energy and circa 25% of its nickel which leaves the West in a difficult position hence why energy trading has not (yet) been embargoed.

Given Russia's general paranoia reinforced by some 30+ countries now sanctioning them, plus yesterday UN vote that they vetoed, some of these economic warfare type scenarios are not that far fetched and may have a profound effect on POG given it is a monetary metal whose value is denominated in Dollars.
ATB APR

@Suggins A fair observation with Kilimapesa have the following 671koz JORC categories and I've added confidence levels beside it with reference Valuation Doc if you wanted some bedtime reading:
> Measured = 61koz & JORC Confidence level = 90%+ mineralisation is present
> Indicated = 123koz & JORC Confidence level = 50%+ mineralisation is present
> Inferred = 487koz & JORC Confidence level = 10%+ mineralisation is present
Note: The Corporate presentation p9 summary is incorrect as it shows measured as 411koz but correctly shown on p15. For info on JORC categorisation see page 18 for description via FREE download @ https://www.academia.edu/38597786/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies

Just taking highest JORC confidence category of Measured then 61koz at 24koz/annum consumption still gives a modest 2-3 years LOM plus another 2-3 years LOM if you include 50% of Indicated resources. The current 3km of DD infill drill campaign will very likely increase overall resources, but more importantly also very likely push more of the Inferred > Indicated > Measured categories as resources confidence levels rise doubtless with aim to significantly increased resources in Measured category.

Interestingly their JORC uses a 1g/t cut-off grade which seems high so if this were dropped to reflect that they can process lower grade material via the planned HL facility then their resources may also increase, but would need an economic assessment factored into their mine plan to avoid excessive OPEX and possibly increased CAPEX to increase the 10kt/month HL capacity.

It's all good and GCAT clearly know what they are doing and why
ATB APR

POG is steadily setting up for a sustained rise and PX confirming each 'step' starting BEFORE Ukraine really kicked off
> Downtrend low $1,790 at end Jan-2022 and start of uptrend
> $1,856 downtrend resistance broken @11-Feb-22 and confirmed 15-Feb-22
> $1,862 / $1,876 resistance broken @17-Feb-22 & confirmed @25-Feb-21 (previous downtrend high Nov-21)
> $1,916 resistance broken @24-Feb-22 and confirmed today 2-Mar-22 (previous downtrend high Jun-21)

IMHO next POG targets weekly ATH @$2,035 and intra-day ATH @2,075 from Aug-2020 which are $115 & $155 from current POG. POG has added $130 in just 4 weeks so anyone's guess how much more it has to go, but I suspect it is just getting going having built a huge "cup & handle" base over the last 10 years.
ATB APR

@CJ66 Russia has played a blinder divesting its Dollar denominated assets and massively increasing gold holdings over the last 4-5 years ... anyone who says that this was accidental or a coincidence is just not paying attention. I suggest you Google Jim Rickards who has produced some compelling commentary on the subject and indeed what Russia may do next.

Just consider why current sanctions omit energy exports to the West and what will happen if Russia insists on oil & gas payment in physical not paper gold ?! What is likely to happen to inflation given Russia exports 10-15% of the worlds energy and Ukraine a very sizable proportion of worlds grains, fertiliser and metals. What will rising inflation do for POG under such circumstances and if you were Russia would you sell your gold into a rising POG?
AIMHO ATB APR

@Suggins LOL, yes I've tried to do some forecasting for Phase 3 completion:
> 2koz production - I suspect will be Q3/4 to hit 2koz production, BUT is not the same as "steady state" 2koz production as Dec-21 1koz throughput demonstrated
> Kilimapesa LOM - based on current 670koz resource & 2koz/month or 24koz/annum steady state gives a very respectable 26+ year LOM rising to 40+ years as resource upgrades to 1Moz come through from 3km DD drill programme
> Kilimapesa Production - I'm assuming 24koz steady state production will be achieved in Q4 2022 given profile to date:
>> Q3 2021 @1.550oz
>> Q4 2021 @2.088oz
... and assuming forward profile Q1 @2.5koz +Q2 @3koz +Q3 @4koz +Q4 @6koz
> Kilimapesa AISC - this is tricky given low forecast cash cost of $860 will likely drop further as process plant capacity, efficiency and throughput rises especially once HL facility is onstream to deal with lower grade ROM ore. IMHO given infill drilling has already been paid/accounted for and decent LOM confirmed then circa $1,050/oz looks very achievable

GCAT is currently a strong gold growth stock with a small but rapidly growing production facility bolted on to fund organic growth from FCF so valuation is not straightforward, but a minimum £50m MCap at $1,900 POG looks very achievable or a 3x bump from current SP given low implied AISC plus shallow, high-grade exploration and pipeline growth if you sit on your hands for 6-10 months depending on speed of Phase 3 progress.

The real valuation 'Joker' is the 1Moz near-term development prospect at Nyakafuru which could add an initial 25koz to 50koz production inside 2 years. I also suspect a Phase 4 expansion at Kilimapesa will deliver better ROI taking Kili from 24koz to 50koz in 2022/23 timeframe.

If POG takes off from current levels to $2,200+ then FCF will explode and that valuation will come forward very fast as GCAT is heavily geared given Q3/4 2021 actuals and 2022 target production figures clearly show.
AIMHO ATB APR

It will be interesting to see what updates we will get in March coming into end of Q1 given the frenetic activity:

Phase 3 Development Plan (RNS 9-Feb-22) - starting the process of installing new plant and equipment to acceleration to 2koz production/month by end July including:
> new gold elution plant = increased throughput/efficiency at reduced cost
> new crushing (Ball mill due for refurbishment) and screening plant = increased throughput
> upgrades to the thickeners & cyclone = increased throughput/efficiency
> installation of additional CIL tanks = increased throughput
> upgrading of the existing tailings retreatment plant = increased throughput/efficiency
> construction of a new heap leach plant operation = increased throughput/efficiency
> expansion of existing infrastructure and engineering services = enables above

Additional "Brucey Bonus" newsflow expected that should move SP:
> Confirmation of 1koz gold production - driven out of various Phase 3 initiatives above
> Confirmation that Kilimapesa OPEX now circa $860/oz following mains power hook-up in Q4
> DD Drill assays at Kili - 3km DD drilling started in Q4 as basis to expand KIli JORC (670koz to 1.5Moz+) and LOM expected in Q1 2022
> RC Drilling & assays at Kili - 10km RC exploration drilling will IMHO follow-on into Q2
> Nyakafuru JORC - confirmation of Nyakafuru reef JORC taking project from 658Koz to 1,058Koz resource

Commentary:
IMHO we have had theoretical 1koz throughput in Dec-21 confirmed, so IMHO hitting 1koz 'Actual' gold production will be a big milestone to demonstrate that they are on track as plant capacity incrementally increased from 1ktpd towards 2.3ktpd comes onstream and %recoveries improve.
GCAT should also get lower costs/oz as throughput ramps up and efficiencies improve to be more inline with peer group producers.
ATB APR

Good news RNS with:
> Gosha = new vein discovered and accessible from existing underground mine
> Vejnaly mine = light is now on at end of tunnel! AAZ confirmed mine is now safe, have access & Assets signed over
Await news on Hassan vien grade and extent plus Vejnaly assessment CAPEX/OPEX costs and production profiling
ATB APR