Member Info for aprogerson

@CuNY The answer to your question "The market dosent often miss golden opportunities. I am just trying to work out why this has fallen so much, so quickly." is really simple. Arc was in active discussions with AAL under an Exclusivity agreement which was extended and ended without further extension or a deal. Check the RNS dates and look at the chart; following the announcement of No Deal investors sold down and left ARCM.

The REAL question is whether ARCM is now a good investment at £16m MCap given the current backdrop. As lots of other posters have noted ARCM has attracted a few very active & relentless posters talking down the stock, its prospects, its BoD and anything else that comes to mind. Curiously they have not received a warm welcome especially when answers have been provided (where possible) and the same questions reappear in a different guise.

I used to be an active poster and did my best to add value where I could, but see no value getting involved in dead-end circular arguments or trying to answer seemingly 'reasonable' questions posed in such a way as to cast doubt or legitimacy without a chance of a meaningful debate.

It may seem counter-intuitive but I find posters rarely invest large amounts of time unless they are:
(1) invested and generally ask or want to understand 'why, when & what next?' issues or
(2) not yet invested at this price and try directly or indirectly to talk it down
Category (1) are not necessarily rampers, but category (2) are invariably active derampers or they spend time somewhere else
ATB APR

POG at $1,876 recent high is now under attack after being tested on Tuesday and for me would confirm valid upside breakout.
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@Boiton You are new, but make some persuasive arguments doubtless all backed by facts and I'm gullible, so I've decided to sell everything here
... or not
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@Bonker by the looks of things the direction of travel is still up for both US PPI and CPI.
Supportive for POG and c/rap for everything else !
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Great RNS confirming what we suspected with 70% of historical BHA 6,182 drill results now digitised.

This enables CCZ to fast-track a JORC compliant Cobalt resource with copper and zinc credits for a tiny cost compared with what it cost prior owners to drill. This is a stunning position for a small explorer to be in as especially as the Co mineralisation looks to be shallow up to 70m deep and local ore processing could be used to monetise any future open pit operation.

Once CCZ have a declared Cobalt based JORC then they have multiple options open to them including Earn-Ins with JV partners willing to stump up CAPEX/OPEX to develop a DFS and/or a mine and/or sell out and keep a %royalty stream.
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LOL Bonker a rate rise will cheer up Mr Market no end especially the growth/Tech stocks
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Hi Ken Yes I was in PREM for a long time. Lots of promises, false dawns and lost capital unfortunately so lost faith in George
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I think it has more to do with POG firming up, breaking downtrend from Aug-2021 and currently sitting at $1,865
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@Jimbo GUN SP=0.825p and 450m shares for MCap = £3.71m

"Later this month First Tin will be raising £20 million in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange Standard List on a pre-money value of £60 million. #GUN have a investment in @FirstTinLimited at a pre money valuation of £15 million."

Checking background facts:
> RNS 24-Mar-2021 = GUN invested £125k for 833,333 shares in Anglo-Saxony Mining (ASM) at 15p
> Aussie Mining News @8-Nov-21 says Aus-Tin deal for Anglo-Saxony to buy Aus-Tin gives them 60m shares or 22.6% of ASM and implies planned ASM IPO on London market will be at 30p https://www.miningnews.net/m-a/news/1421000/aus-tin-secures-taronga-tin-payday

Commentary: This implies a 4x SP ASM uplift since GUN invested or IPO price for ASM/First Tin of 60p vs 15p when GUN first invested. If this comes of then this gives GUN a nice £375k paper profit & boost to NAV.
ATB APR

I just love Andrew McGuire on Live From The Vault : Insider exposes BIS dumping unallocated gold risk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDkEsGF42zc
> CBs competing for physical gold at suppressed $1,800 price aka "The Whale"
> Confirmation of 1st Tier banks closing out unallocated contracts
> ETFs being used to 'manage' physical demand and suppress paper prices as price discovery not transparent
> Silver market transparent but Gold is not whilst physical supply is still limited
Do watch this if it wasn't so serious it would ne comical
ATB APR

As Bonker mentioned BLS has changed basis for calculation of US %CPI. I like Steve Van MEtre's regular coverage of all things investing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I00rXH0_okY
Contrary to 'normal' expectations of government CPI changes Steve VM believes this will drive US CPI higher and not lower !
ATB APR

Looks like we have broken out (Again) so a weekly close today above $1840 would be good or a close above prior high at $1,866 to confirm.
I wasn't expecting it so soon ... looks like it was UK FO announcement for UK Nationals to leave Ukraine @18:43 that did it
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@ballio Agreed, however my chart is showing the wedge formed by current downtrend from Aug-2021 against uptrend from Aug-2018 resolving out around $1,814 midpoint by end of Mar-22. On the weekly chart POG has been trading in a tight band around the 50 week MA for the past 11 weeks and currently sat at $1,796 and heading up despite all the Fed rhetoric.

I also agree direction is likely to break up given the backdrop which looks like all tailwinds for POG including highest US CPI in 40 years @7.5% and mild tightening by some CBs. Everyone knows real inflation is substantially higher than stated CPI and likely to head higher for much longer given PPI figures shown in Europe and US plus consumer companies such as Unilever warning of substantially higher prices due to steeply rising input costs.
ATB APR

@Jim That's not what I'm seeing on Aquis but then the spread is huge and RB is thinly traded. IG showing bump up 5.8p to 6.3p with spread range 5.6p to 7.0p so that might explain what you are seeing
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@Dartron/Digger Same here most of my PM PF is at least 50% down whilst FCF is up and POG is steady and firm ... go figure!

Todays US CPI print of 7.5% and stated Fed/UK CB tightening will push POG up as tightening as historically been trigger for prolonged Gold/silver bull-runs since 1971 anyway!
ATB APR

Using US Jan-22 CPI @7.5% and my trusty "Rule of 72" then the current rate of inflation implies that purchasing power drops by over 50% in 10 years in real terms although nominal debt remains unchanged ... assuming of course that debt does not grow, but of course we know that is now growing at $2-3T per annum. History tells us that post WW2 inflation halved debt in 5-6 years so my best guess is that CBs will do the minimum that they can be seen to get away with as they need to let inflation rise some more for much, much longer.

I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm not sure CBs have a lot of choice given debt/GDP loads comfortably above 120% and that is without ludicrous off-books commitments in US and here in UK. At least a growing CPI boosts GDP even if amount of goods is falling due to stagflation and/or falling demand as real & especially disposable incomes are also falling. Very sobering.
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@Bonker Yes weekly POG has neatly segwayed between support from 'old' Aug-21 downtrend at $1,788 to 'new' downtrend resistance sat at $1,838 (ish) so I concur that anything above would be bullish and anything above $1,866 would be extremely bullish for POG.

Goodness so US Jan-22 CPI @7.5% = wow
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@lootgaloot Thanks for posting that material and reading through seems to highlight poor management and communication on the part of CCZ with the local environmental group and the regulator plus slapdash follow-on fundraising prospectus neglecting to mention the suspension of the Exploration Licences by the regulator. So not one but two own goals although thankfully all remedial action was completed and accepted with the suspension on the Exploration Licences removed.

Doubtless if CCZ wishes to progress with Cangai then they will need to play their A-Game and engage early with both regulator and the environmental group in question. I do get the sense that no real harm was done as the exploration works were limited, but CCZ did not cover themselves in glory. Interesting that the local Environmental groups cited large scale mining disasters on their report which were not even remotely comparable to the scale or nature of works undertaken by CCZ.

It will be interesting to see how CCZ approach progressing Cangai as it looks too prospective to ignore any longer.
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@Ella I do agree that while these court cases are outstanding it is unlikely that any Major will want to risk possible reputational damage or conclude any deal with ARCM. However, if there are NDAs in place these work both ways in order to share information confidentially so should not be an impediment to discussion and/or discovery whilst these legal matters are resolved.
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@CopperOn I must admit it is beyond me why CCZ has not progressed Cangai when so much additional drill/assay work was done 2017/19 and not incorporated into the original JORC resource let alone progressed further given the huge rise in metal prices including copper ($3.1/lb to $4.2/lb), gold ($1,300 to $1,800) and silver ($17.8 to $23) from 2017 to date. The revised JORC should now be a desktop exercise.

Broken Hill Cobalt prospects are far more intriguing given the NSW Policy change focusing on Critical Metals mining>processing and the HUGE amount of drill and assay data now available including some very encouraging Cobalt grades.
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