Member Info for aprogerson

@ragnarr Thanks I'd lost track of what Low6 had raised to date and our investment stands at £268k giving us a notional 1.1% shareholding ... the CLN terms may vary this slightly but not by very much. We know GUN has at least £1.2m cash to deploy, but I am not 100% sighted on the TSX RTO and IPO mechanism that will be employed or indeed if they will be looking to raise further cash when they RTO and effectively list Low6.

Normally I would expect seed funders pre-IPO to be rewarded with an SP uplift at each fund round with the IPO being no different. IMHO a 2x uplift in our investment should be the minimum we should expect. We will soon find out !
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@Adam Understand your concerns but you are now asking operational management level questions that as shareholders we are unlikely to get answers to. Don't ask us ask HUM
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@Adam Good question but loan drawdowns, cashflows profiling and 'overhang' of costs post first gold pour were well covered in the call and all point to positive cashflow expectations rather than a liquidity crunch and/or cash call. We also know that in extremis that (1) the Coris loan is not ringfenced & (2) that Yan is throwing off significant FCF being used to fund huge exploration drill programmes across their licence areas with 48km of results still due to be published that will further extend resources, reserves and/or Yan LOM.
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Good session for me but ultimately it is about getting Yan to be a consistent producer and guidance to be delivered on which HUM have struggled with and sentiment plus SP have suffered accordingly. HUM seem to be saying the right things and I am encouraged by their newish COO driving operational improvements which will take time to design, implement and feed through.

IMHO 2022 will be a make or break year for HUM with Dugbe DFS landing shortly and incremental Yan operational improvements feeding through into improved performance over guidance as I strongly suspect they have under-promised which implies some caution still exists .. probably rightly so. Kouroussa is a monster and will transform HUM into a mid-tier multi jurisdiction producer and help drive down group AISC and drive FCF up even at current POG. Cashflow will dramatically increase when POG gets to $2k as expected this year & explode if above $2k.
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RNS granting 160k options for 5 years to director at 5 day Vwrap is completely logical and costs AAZ nothing now but a nice incentive if he helps get the SP up so win-win
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@BB2 Good set of reasonable fact-based questions that demand an answer
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Bonker YEs, fertiliser prices have been 2-3x what they were last season as energy is prime input to manufacturing ammonia as main feedstock to producing fertiliser. As 'new' season will soon be upon us in Northern hemisphere then fertiliser will be needed to maintain yields albeit at a much higher cost of production ... could this mean higher food costs still to come the the pipe as these get harvested and come to market?

What about all those glasshouses in Netherlands that need higher priced energy to heat them?
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So @Bonker at a wild guess suppliers/distributors will need to offer significantly higher wages to convince more people to take up the jobs on offer. Existing employees will then demand higher wages to offset loss of purchasing power from recent and near-term expected inflation plus (at least) wage parity with those new employees. Overall does not look good news for PPI nor CPI when all that washes through to the end consumer as it must do at some point for the directors of these companies to avoid becoming insolvent which in most jurisdictions they must do by law anyway.

Higher inflation for longer looks like it might be hanging around for even longer than the CBers can maintain their 'We have it all under control' storylines. Torrid times ahead for those on low, state funded or fixed incomes then. Interesting times ahead for bonds and asset prices in general as interest rates rise from historic lows for the politicians to be 'seen to' tackle inflation and of course 'jam tomorrow' growth stocks reliant on near zero interest rates to maintain their business models.
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LOL BB2 I'm glad we are both violently agreeing then
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@Bushy Agreed that the whole point of the way the Dugbe JV deal is structured as per 4-Jun-21 RNS is that there is absolute clarity of ownership and that all parties are free post-DFS 'consummation' of Dugbe via transfer of HUM SubCo ARX owning Dugbe licence into VEIN.

You raise an interesting point about project funding post DFS as assuming no additional dilution at that point VEIN is 100% responsible for fundraising albeit at 51% VEIN ownership HUM may also want to participate in said fundraising to help ensure that a mine gets built and its prior investments in Dugbe project finally bears fruit. As you point out there are all sorts of possibilities for HUM to raise their level of ownership especially if HUM can raise debt at a cheaper rate than VEIN can and/or HUM is willing to divert FCF to invest in additional capital raising which will be required at some point post DFS if nothing else to keep VEIN running as a going concern let alone building a mine.
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@Kaduval Yes you are correct but I think it is safe to assume that all our discussion take that 10% free-carry on the LICENCE by the Liberian Government as a given otherwise our musing will get even more complicated than they already are !
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@Devil I concur so pre-IPO we know our Low6 investment has doubled. At teh point of IPO though this only implies a base price set by the last fundraise so I would expect prior pre-IPO seed funders to be 'rewarded' with a higher SP at IPO itself which is in Low6s gift to set when they list on TSX if they have an additional fundraise I would imagine.
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LOL @Ella I've no idea how to qualify the risk in what you posted without more information about what information you might have or your motives for posting unless of course you would like to enlighten us as per my prior request ?
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So Low6 will be listing on TSX via a Reverse Takeover (RTO) of 735BC and concurrently raise cash so Low6 will effectively IPO on TSX via an existing empty ShellCo namely 735BC.

It will be interesting to see how much cash they raise and at what price so we can see how much our interest in Low6 is actually worth and what terms the existing shareholders get at the point of IPO in terms of 'old' private Low6 shares for 'new' public TSX Low6 shares or 'gearing' so effectively giving seed investors get an improved ROI at IPO.

Still not sure what % of Low6 GUN holds pre-IPO given multiple fundraisings and GUNs non-participation in the pre-IPO fund raise which surprised me given GUN probably now has £1.2m+ cash post Charger Metals partial divestment or maybe PR is keeping his options open and will participate at the IPO?
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@Bushy/BB2 My expectation is that Dugbe will be a wholly owned operational SubCo of VEIN owning the Dugbe licences post DFS so I would be stunned if IS would give away control of VEIN to HUM post DFS in return for said Dugbe licences and HUMs 51% interest.
Of course I could easily be wrong and Dan might be a stunning negotiator and surprise us all !
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@BB2 Yes agreed and as many posters have said it keeps ownership, operational management, any future development and/or divestment/partnership decisions 100% clear going forward as these will be with VEIN post DFS albeit as a majority shareholder and possible directorship HUM will doubtless have some say in it.

The only bit I am not clear on is the mechanism for the 49/51% transfer of Dugbe ownership to VEIN and how the number of VEIN shares due to HUM is then calculated. On the plus side VEIN only has one asset which will simplify these calculations as it can ONLY be based on the agreed valuation of Dugbe post DFS when the actual value and economics (albeit at a point in time) is fully understood.

Bonkers point about POG being over $2k is interesting as it would doubtless improve the economics considerably BUT makes absolutely no difference to the Dugbe asset %split. A higher POG gives VEIN/HUM considerably improved optionality going forward and hopefully reduces the chance that HUM may want to divest VEIN as it did with CORA as its FCF from Yan/Kouroussa will also improve.
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@Ella Goodness potential deals with a Major and/or gold find at Kwiji ! Whatever next ... perhaps some reference or link/s we can follow to verify for ourselves?

You are now taking the risk that you'll be accused of becoming a Ramper if you carry on like this !?
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LOL Bonker snap!

@Adam IF my understanding is correct then VEIN will effectively own Dugbe licence/s post DFS so will need to bear the projects CAPEX/OPEX costs going forward as HUM will become an albeit very large shareholder in VEIN. In principal I have no issue with this other than what rights do HUM have to purchase future shares if dilution is required as part of any (presumed) capital/debt financing required to build the mine if HUM wants to retain it's % shareholding going forward?
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@kaduval Interesting clip of Ian Stalker in Dec-21 talking about Dugbe project, upcoming DFS and what we can expect. My takeaways are:
> IS expects DFS in Apr-2022
> IS talking about 200koz pa Gold production with 4Mt plant rather than prior 5Mt plant to less CAPEX as expected grades are higher at around 1.58g/t
> IS confirmed that HUM 51% of Dugbe would be reversed into VEIN but no details of how or on what terms
> VEIN now fully funded to DFS and IS expects remaining funds could be used for add drilling
> IS confirmed Turkish investor cannot buy more VEIN until DFS complete
> IS indicated that Dugbe DFS expected to be 4Moz+ mixture resources and reserves as per MRE issued
> IS indicated project economics should improve due to higher grades drilled, pit design improvements & lower plant CAPEX
> IS very complementary about Liberian support for mining and ran through all tax breaks available to project

Hopefully I did not miss anything substantive from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6Z5zw_ZlS0 (thanks Kadavul)
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