Member Info for aprogerson

@bonker The Shadow Stats site was a sobering read. What I didn't realise was that by artificially depressing CPI (or rather changing its terms of reference) then this lowers CPI effectively overstating the (inflation adjusted) GDP so that the %debt load vs. GDP stays outrageously high rather than stratospherically high which would be signalling imminent default.

The bit that REALLY annoyed me was that by constantly revising the way CPI was measured this had the effect of depressing 'real' CPI so it effectively robs those on fixed income or fixed benefits of a higher annual income adjustment to keep pace with real (underlying inflation) so robbing them of purchasing power over time. CPI was never always this way but it suits those in control by pushing the problem into the future for someone else to deal with.

Fascinating and scary all at the same time !
ATB APR

@chisler Yes agreed, not massive buys but I guess it is the thought that counts !
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@Bonker Thanks and yes very sobering as at 14% inflation the value of money halves every 5.1 years !
I use 'Rule of 72' ... so 72/14 = 5.1 years
ATB APR

@bonker I had heard anecdotally that current UK CPI of 5.1% equates to 15%+ using prior calculation method from 1980s when CPI was last around 5%. Are you aware of anywhere I can confirm if this true?

@swamp 100% agree. POG is sat just below that $1,800 that keeps being retested and as if by magic the downtrend will be sat on $1,800 in the next 2-3 weeks so assuming POG does not get hammered down again then POG 'should' be able to break that downtrend AND hold it.

My take on all of this is that no matter how much gold and miners are unloved that at $1,750/$1,800 gold producers are kicking out a LOT of FCF and that just cannot stay unnoticed forever as the big players continue to buy out juniors/mid-tier developers/producers with good assets at silly prices.

Meanwhile this continues to be a good opportunity to pickup cheap shares and tuck them away.
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@Sands IMHO POG downtrend has hit all Goldies but HUM has just had too many production issues and no consistency which is basically what producing miners are rated on. The 'benefit' for investors is that this just cannot continue either:
(1) HUM will pull their s**t together or
(2) someone else will come in/buy and do it for them

The added bonus for 'value' investors is that HUM is cheap PLUS it has 1x new 100k+ mine due 2022/3 and another 100k+ probably due the following year taking HUM to 200k+ 2022/3 and then 300k+ 2023/4. All the development and exploration upside is currently baked into the SP for free !

For its main production asset at Yanfolila its LOM was 2-3 years which was rubbish, but thankfully after a huge 68km drilling campaign is now 7+ years with about 50% of the drilling results yet to be factored in but should take it to 10+ years in H1 2022.

We also know HUMs longer term aim is to pay a dividend which will not happen whilst they are building out mines as they will be using FCF to do that which implies a divi 2023 or more probably 2024.

All of the above will put a rocket under HUMs SP if you are prepared to invest now whilst it is cheap and sit on your hands. Meanwhile if POG does what it is supposed to do then FCF will markedly accelerate and all of the above upside could be brought forward.
ATB APR

POG had a serious bump up overnight and currently sitting around $1,800. MAjor downtrend from Aug-20 sits at around $1,820 so a decent close above that into weekend will be a second weekly close breaking this....
I think we are now setting up for a major move as it has been building a huge support base under this price
ATB APR

WOW with brass knobs on ! I follow a lot of goldies and grades like that are very rare but grades AND intervals like that rarer still and then they are shallow ?! WOW
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@bonker WHAT 9.6% ... this will feed through into CPI over the next 3-6 months assuming suppliers have some pricing power ... shows direction of CPI travel is more likely Up than down!
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@bonker My reading is similar and Jim Rickards (amongst others) has alluded to how this may pan out with a partial %gold backing to underpin the CB balance sheets. Clearly at current POG and accelerating rate of money printing the 2 main variables are (1) timing of the move and (2) at what level POG is reset to make the massively increased CB BSs 'sustainable' and 'credible' given implied higher inflation going forward? ... considerably higher POG would achieve this in one fell swoop !

IMHO this would imply at some point in the foreseeable that POG gets (at least) an additional '0' on the end.
ATB APR

@swamp Agreed that is my understanding as well. Essentially it means that intermediate banks cannot hold unhedged gold positions and any that they do hold will need physical backing. IMHO I suspect that POG is being 'managed' within strict bounds to allow these banks to unwind/transition any unsupportable positions and purchase what they need at manageable prices in an orderly market.

At some point the music will stop and POG will move up as physical gold becomes harder and harder to get but until then unhedged paper gold will be used to keep prices lower than they might otherwise have been.
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I cannot imagine the Turkish wanting to give their gold to the Government in exchange for Turkish Lira ! Their gold is probably the only thing holding value right now for them.

@Bonker I thought Turkey was bulk buying Silver ... have not seen the figures for their gold purchases, but if you cannot afford it mine it !
ATB APR

Excellent news that OMCO Mine Tailings are both higher grade and deeper than first thought after drilling 12x Auger holes at average depth 3.43m or 72% more than the 2m previously assumed. GWMO have also completed 67 fire assays over the 12 samples for an average of 5.6 per hole or one assay every 0.6m ... so very thorough giving average grade of 1.25g/t Gold. Unfortunately they did not provide any silver grades which given Historic records indicate 25g/t Gold and 30g/t Silver would have been useful to know.

Contained Gold in Tailings= 5,300oz assuming 100% recovery:
OMCO = (41kt x 1.72% x 1.25g/t ) /31.1 = 2,835 oz (tailing increase & grade Ref: RNS 6-Dec-21)
MJ = (12kt x 14/5 x 2.28g/t ) /31.1 = 2,463 oz (tailing increase & grade Ref: GWMO presentation Sept-21)

In Summary:
Revised tailings and grades gives a potential contained gold of 5,300oz @$1,750 = £7m assuming 100% recovery. Checking back to RNS @1-Apr-21 GWMO processing study indicated 50% gold recovery using gravity separation only citing cyanide leaching as relatively expensive and long lead-time. Todays RNS however indicates that cyanide leaching is being reconsidered given the large increase of tailings volumes across both MJ and OMCO spoil heaps which may now shift the economics of cyanide leaching plant and IMHO increase %gold recovery above 85% albeit with increased CAPEX.

As historic tailings have already been mined and crushed they just need to be dug out and transported to the GWMO processing facility so CAPEX for processing plant, roads & camp plus OPEX for operations to dig the stuff out & transport it.

Things are looking up considerably !
ATB APR

CCZ Chairman Rob Scott is going to look very silly after that Twitter post if the Arya Assays are not positive
ATB APR

@Bonker Flippin' Heck ... that's really NOT good
What will it take for POG to wake up and shine ? 4 Horsemen ?
ATB APR

Detailed RNS announcing Zangilan district released from Armenia 27-Oct-20 contains details of Vejnaly deposit as:

"The Zangilan district is a mineral-rich district in the south west of Azerbaijan. Under the terms of the Company's existing Production Sharing Agreement ("PSA"), the Company has been granted the right to exploit Vejnaly, which is close to the villages of Amirkhanly and Aghband. The contract area covers approximately 300 square kilometres and contains the Vejnaly deposit which, according to the Soviet Classification, contains 6.5 tonnes of gold (C1 + C2) and 2.3 tonnes of gold (P1). A map showing the location of the Vejnaly deposit is available at http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2554D_2-2020-10-26.pdf and its co-ordinates at http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2554D_3-2020-10-26.pdf."

Todays announcement that the area is "safe" restarts the clock on the 15 year PSA agreement (+2x 5 year extensions permissible). AAZ management team to inspect area in Dec-21.
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Fantastic news mine reopens ... all safe and secure!
SP 18+ soon then or a few more days of rollercoaster in case we get too comfortable :-))
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@causal Yes that is why I love AAZ ... decent small steady copper/gold producer with huge potential growth and pays a decent divi whilst I wait.

... but we need our pure Explorers like CCZ to come good too
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@BT The various things I have seen from ZeroHedge shows very high retail share dealing via Robinhood et al plus of course the rampant speculation across the Crypto market is truly eye-popping. You only have to look at the 5-6 main constituents of Nasdaq and the associated holdings of trend-following ETFs that in turn load up on these few 'growth' stocks wholly dependent on jam tomorrow at todays minimal interest rates. A huge stock market bubble built on a 'bed of nitro-glycerine' does not look sustainable.

Perhaps "This time will be different" but it seems very unlikely to me ... I'll stick with Gold, Silver, Lithium, Tin and Copper thanks
ATB APR