Member Info for aprogerson

@Expart Interesting observation about the Libero investment being in lieu of a special divi ... could you point me at where this was mentioned/implied.

Personally I'd rather have excess FCF used to grow NAV, saleable/exploitable assets and/or future production than just being returned to shareholders. The potential move to a multi-asset, poly-metal producer across multiple jurisdictions is plain sensible risk management in my view and a precursor to becoming a mid-tier producer.
ATB APR

@riosurfer Yes I've always wondered what the connection (if any) between Ella, Colin Bird and China Blue is ... probably just my furtive imagination whilst I sit here and wait for news to drop as this interminable wait for court cases et al to resolve drags on and very obvious trolls spreading rumour and misinformation continue to troll the BB.
ATB APR

@Dartron I came into AAZ off the back of the end of the war with Armenia and the repatriation of historic licence areas to AAZ so I am unfortunately sat on a much higher SP and await more substantial news which I must admit has been much slower to come through than I had hoped. Meanwhile AAZ rewards my patience with a decent dividend, steady reliable guidance and production news which I find quietly reassuring especially as the FCF funds exploration and LOM upgrades.

Personally I prefer explorer/developers at this stage of the current gold/copper upcycle however AAZ has a highly experienced team across exploration, development, mine build and operations with more opportunities to expand its production base than I can shake a stick at. The Libero deal I see as borderline inspired as it is a strong win-win deal for both parties and provides AAZ with lots of future options should it wish to increase its stake funded from FCF from existing let alone future producing mines.
ATB APR

I rarely get blown away by an RNS but todays Broken Hill update and revised 2022 near-term priorities identify 3 potential company makers for me namely:
(1) Arya = assays due with copper/graphite potential albeit at depth

(2) Cangai = very high grade historic copper mine with extensive underground and/or possible future open pit potential ... full details on presentation Nov-19 @https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02171711-6A954581?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS Sept-17 = JORC resource 3.2Mt ore grading 3.35% copper for inferred 102Kt metal. Additional drilling since by CCZ not included in resource. JORC also includes 82koz Gold @0.8 g/t and 2Moz Silver @20.1 g/t https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-01893133-6A849829?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS Oct-17 = Rock chip Assays and JORC 3D model view https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-01914242-6A857639?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS May-18 = Results phase #1 18 holes https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-01982342-6A884326?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS Nov-18 = Phase #2 +18 holes https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-02052605-6A911017?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS May-2019 = approval to recommence exploration at Cangai https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-02109978-6A932145?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS Sept-19 = Stockpile assays https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02141953-6A943417?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> RNS Nov-19 = Scoping Study Intent https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02169491-6A953848?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

(3) Broken Hill = Cobalt prospect recognised in NSW Critical Metals policy https://castillocopper.com/projects/broken-hill/
> 6,182x known historic holes drilled by North Broken Hill Group meet current QAQC requirements and Page12 of CCZ presentation Feb-21 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CCZ/02344530.pdf but does not mention Cobalt !
> Proximity to existing listed Cobalt explorer/developer Cobalt Blue (ASX:COB). Website has significant infrastructure, processing flowsheet and other details https://cobaltblueholdings.com/broken-hill/broken-hill-cobalt-project/
> 7x historic cores available in GSNSW core library available to CCZ for assaying
> 108x CCZ Drilled holes with full assay data set grading 200ppm Co up to 9,500ppm Co
> CCZ stated will produce JORC Cobalt MRE using all available recent and historic data as all data is QAQC compliant

All to play for it would seem
ATB APR

My favourite on todays GMWO 202 Programme is
"OMCO Mine South (Olympic)
After reviewing work carried out at the OMCO Mine site by previous claim holders, Great Western believes that the wall rocks to the abandoned OMCO Mine vein workings may host appreciable quantities of gold, not mined during previous operations. In 2022, this will be addressed by drilling through the mined portions of the OMCO vein, which has never previously been attempted. 13 holes, expected to total 7,285 feet (2,220 metres), are planned in the OMCO area. "

Commentary:
The historic OMCO "produced 35,000 tons at 25 g/t Au and 30 g/t Ag" up to 1940. Simply GWMO plan to drill into the walls of the existing 900m of underground mine walls for additional lower grade mineralisation they may not have been mined at the time as it was deemed uneconomic. However 80 years on typical grades in modern commercial underground mines are much, much lower so 4 or 5g/t ore may well be economic for GWMO especially if the planned Tailings plant can be used to process OMCO ore.
ATB APR

@bonker Okay interesting ... I knew BASEL 3 gold underpinnings deadline had been moved so to my mind that confirms it as CBs need to ensure POG stays subdued until the leading banks have sorted their capital restructurings in line with the new rules allowing gold to be recognised at full market value.

Given the capital/margin change rules for gold derivatives then any residual POG manipulation should also be driven out leaving POG free to reflect the real physical market which still shows strong demand. Any increase in POG after that date makes banks theoretically stronger as their reserves (gold) have increased in value which would suit the CBs strategy of letting inflation continue to rip as the banks capital underpinnings will be protected whilst their debts will reduce in real terms.
ATB APR

It seems unlikely given high inflation that everyone agrees is going higher plus CB tightening that has historically been the trigger for POG sustained rises however counter-intuitive that may seem.

Incidentally looks like DXY is toying with a breakout to the down side from its almost perfect uptrend channel from Jun-21 ?
ATB APR

Thanks @swampmonster

@bonker You can't just throw in a teaser like "US bond market imploding next week" without some context or link ... that's cruel!
ATB APR

@Ella Why would anyone redeem warrants at 4.5p when they can spend their money on the open market and buy shares at 3.5/3.6p whilst retaining the option to buy shares at 4.5p at some future date when the SP is north of that figure ?
ATB APR

@bushy I was also reading about BoE "plea to workers to moderate wage demands" on the news this morning +Money off lowest Council Tax band taxpayers (a loan really) +Energy Price Cap introduced & now revised up (a lot). What's next? price controls on food, rent, travel, public sector wages? We know from the 1970s that these things work for a short time before imploding or driving 'unintended consequences' such as strikes, mass protests, political/civil unrest ?

On the basis that actions speak louder than words nobody can be left in any doubt that inflation will now be "higher for longer". Given that producer input prices are still rising then the direction of travel for inflation still looks to be up whilst consumer confidence/spending is dropping as price rises continue to erode both real and especially disposable incomes.

I'm not see a happy ending here for governments, tax payers or consumers and especially not for those on fixed incomes given the large gap between CPI (state support & Pensions) and RPI (real world prices) if sites such as Shadow Facts are to be believed.
ATB APR

So Lies, d/amn Lies and of course Statistics !
Scary
ATB APR

@bonker Interesting chart on Gold purchases/sales with 2 of the worlds biggest producers of Gold also the biggest buyers namely Russia and China ... do we think they have been selling the gold that they mine? Seems as unlikely as super-inflation-sensitive Germany selling some gold, but they did !

Go figure
ATB APR

Hi @Ragnarr that is why I used £265k (£200k +65k) and mentioned the Convertible Loan Note (CLN) hence my figure.
CLNs can be tricky to work out how many shares as depends on when they are redeemed. I would expect that Low6 would want all CLNs resolved at the point of RTO or possibly before depending on when any capital raising occurs and what the shares calculation old vs new shares is
ATB APR

LOL Bushy isn't "Fixed AISC and LOM" is a bit like "efficient market theory" fine in principle, but not in the real world ... well not for more than the first 5 minutes anyway!
ATB APR

@Juxtapose Far reaching organisational change that the COO is leading is not easy stuff especially when it meets a long standing culture that may not have recognised as important the very changes he has been introducing.

Looking forward to seeing some of these changes in policy, practice, organisational and approach feed through into HUM performance and especially a lower AISC at higher production rates. Added bonus is that these changes should then get built into operations at Kouroussa as the starting point and not as some sort of mid-course correction as is happening at Yan.
ATB APR

I think DB may now be listening and taking our feedback seriously ... let's hope so !
ATB APR

@Bonker I concur and that is my broad assessment also which is why I am here. I just think the HUM value proposition given the backdrop is compelling assuming BoD don't F**K it up of course!
ATB APR

@Bonker You know my view that HUM is a high growth explorer/developer with a producing mine throwing off FCF used to fund it all.

IMHO HUM is currently On Sale at £53m with 2 monster projects just not reflected in the current MCap despite a clear funded trajectory to become a mid-tier multi-jurisdiction producer over the next 18-24 months. Remarkable value really, but that is gold miners for you !
ATB APR

@adam I pulled no punches in my Investor Event feedback basically:
(1) sort out Yan production vs. Guidance promises
(2) follow through as promised with Dugbe and Kouroussa
= improved investor sentiment as we don't trust you to deliver with 2 'Own goals' dropped on us being plant shutdown and missed guidance!
AIMHO ATB APR