Member Info for aprogerson

US YoY CPI at 7.9% was 7.5% last month and 0.8% MoM was 0.6% looks like higher for longer
Where Bonker when you need him?
ATB APR

@RP Out of interest was that a limit buy, cross fingers and hope at 0.925p ?

@RP That's is a serious chunk & I applaud your conviction
10-Mar-22 12:43:07 0.925 48,600,000 Unknown* 0.90 0.95 449.55k
ATB APR

@Somerset Yes it certainly looks that way. We have had one very obvious seller of 32m shares at 0.95p a few days back that we suspect is ORCA taking shares off GoldPlat so it could be them unloading the rest on the market in much smaller tranches at around 0.95p which is pinning the price at these levels until they have cleared.

On the plus side for us PIs we can use that information to buy into our positions whilst this 'window' around 0.95/1.05p exists and enjoy it whilst it lasts. Given that GCAT was effectively readmitted to LSE in Aug-21 @$1,820 POG and it is now $2,000 but the SP is still 0.95p confirming that:
(A) Aug-21 relaunch was too expensive or
(B) current price is too cheap

Given that £5m was raised at launch and £2m since injected to fund a 3 phase improvement plan, 1Moz resources have been added with 2 projects, main plant has been refurbished (phase 2 =1koz throughput ) and production ie gold output has doubled start Q3 to end Q4 (actual 2koz/quarter) and is planned to triple to 6koz/quarter from here over the next 5-6 months on completion of accelerated phase 3 ... both (A) and (B) cannot be correct

... wild guess, but my money is on outcome (B) as IMHO value is being added at pace and that pace was accelerated in Feb-21 so Q1 2022 operational update should be a very interesting read especially as expansion/infill drill results are also due over similar timeframe.
AIMHO ATB APR

@daniel I spoke to LSE staff and they recommended getting an Ad banner! ... I can see my screen now
ATB APR

LOL @BT always good to share :-)

We've discussed what if Russia priced its oil in gold and what this would mean for Russia given sanctions imposed on Russian CB assets and what would it imply for POG ..... well watch this as George Gammon explains "Expert Says GOLD Could Hit $100,000 Soon!! (Here's How)" his conclusions are clearly explained, counter-intuitive and hard to refute !
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35x8N7Va8zg

At last some movement so MMs let it go ... !

(1) GCAT is a growing gold Producer/Developer & Explorer Q4 2021 @650oz/month & target 2koz in next 6 months
(2) Cash cost/ounce Q4 2021 $960/oz & expect Q1 2022 $860/oz
(3) POG is $2,050 near ATH and rising strongly
(4) Kilmapesa producing mine 3+ year LOM & 13km Infill/expansion drill programme results Q1/2
(5) Main Kilimapesa plant refurbished & expansion/efficiency programme underway including new Heap Leach
(6) JORC due adding 400koz @Nyakafuru to 1Moz & mine development planning underway
(7) Plant efficiency & OPEX savings underway should offset some increased production fuel costs

.... so what else do you need to know?
ATB APR

We might need to wait until 17:00/17:30 to see what if any large trades maybe declared after hours that might shed some light on the SP movements as we have had on other days.

My question is more are the market valuing GCAT as an explorer, developer or a producer because at £15m MCap then GCAT is more of a turnaround story with significant growth potential and maybe the calculus is too hard even after what Align Research as said !?
ATB APR

@AG I thought that 1koz announced in Dec-21 was plant throughput achieved but not 1koz gold production whcih we are yet to see achieved but expect in Q1/2 (my guess)
ATB APR

@mickey love your enthusiasm, but please be aware that AISC has not yet been announced as GCAT is using all its resources and free cashflow from gold sales to grow its production base to 2koz/month as part of accelerated Phase 3 plan announced in Feb-22. AISC is not the same as cash cost/ounce as AISC is at company or mine level whilst cash/cost is at production level and will usually include OPEX but exclude CAPEX/OPEX for drilling and building/expanding any mine.

It might make more sense to think of GCAT as a self-funding Developer/Explorer than a Producer at the moment so AISC is academic. HOWEVER, base cash costs of production which indicate what future AISC will be when we get to some sort of steady-state production were $980 in Q3 2021, $960 in Q4 and with power hook up saving of $100/oz should be $860 in Q1 2022. As Phase 3 plant upgrades progress the throughput, efficiency and range of grades we can process will all improve so I am expecting costs to drop further although I believe increased fuel costs may offset this.

GCAT is in a fantastic position being now self-funded, growing production at decreasing cost & increasing efficiency, whilst simultaneously growing its resource base. Plus when Kilmapesa upgrades have been done the FCF will be targeted to Nyakafuru development project so that they can build a second mine in 24-36 months.
AIMHO ATB APR

@Daniel Trades settled at mid-price are marked as "Unknown". trades below mid-price as sells and those above as buys. MMs move the spread to make the market which is their job after all but the LSE algorithm that marks trades as buy / sell / unknown is hardly helpful for us poor PIs without access to L2 trade info.
ATB APR

wow POG = $2,008

@Suggins You spoil us :-)

On the plus side Rincon has just broken out of its downtrend and popped from 10.26c to 15c in 2 days.
Roll on drill programme with 2x deep 250m drilling soon
ATB APR

That's unnerving calling @14:50 that we may drop to 0.9p support from 6-Sept-21 and then after hours when bid/ask was 0.9/0.95 we see which looks almost certainly a sell ...
07-Mar-22 14:31:09 0.90 1,943,610 Unknown* 0.90 1.00 17.49k
Is the bottom now in for GCAT ?
ATB APR

@Ella If it is the deal previously tabled by AAL then surely another RNS would not be needed?

I do agree though if a deal has been tabled, an existing one reconfirmed or some other arrangement then an RNS confirming such would probably be appropriate given the long intervening delay caused by the court actions and subsequent settlement.

No official comment or detail provided given the market sensitivity of a potential deal is not helpful
ATB APR

Looking at chart I suspect we may hit 0.9p today (low from 6-Sept-21) with a strong bounce which should give us a strong base to work from and hopefully flush out any remaining weak hands/sellers.
Good stock on special offer for longer it would seem!
ATB APR

Remarkable that what is actually a sea of Buys is shown as Sells all morning as being settled below the 0.975p mid price.
Do we still have some overhang that is being cleared just above the 0.95p fund raising price from last month?

If so it will be interesting to see what the SP will revert to when the expected near-term 'price/value market sensitive' news flow comes through:
> Confirmation of Kilimapesa process plant upgrade programme timeframe/progress
> Confirmation of 1koz gold Kilimapesa production/month milestone achieved
> Kilimapesa 13km infill/expansion drill progress & assay results
> Confirmation of Nyakafuru Reefs 400koz resource expansion JORC application
> Q1 results and if sub $860 direct costs/ounce were achieved as anticipated from Q4 results RNS
ATB APR

@Magoo Very happy with a cheeky top-up of 65k shares at 0.964p taking me above my target 3m position
I'll continue to add while these shares are on sale at Aug-21 LSE launch price given $2k POG
ATB APR