Member Info for aprogerson

@Brainspark You obviously have selective hearing and do not read this BB where myself and others carefully explain what is going on .... why not read back and tell us all what the real issue is?
ATB APR

@Bebeto Reef deposits also tend to be very profitable as they are parallel sheets of mineralisation and are usually high grade

@IAAGB & Headder Whilst I was in GGP it 12x bagged & did not earn a penny as it was a Junior Explorer.

GCAT is difficult to value as it is an Explorer, Developer & a Producer which at SP=1p or £18.5m MCap offers good value measured in raw P/E, potential £revenue growth over multiple timeframes and/or JORC compliant Resources in multiple mining friendly jurisdictions.

I think of GCAT as an Explorer/Developer with a small and rapidly growing mine attached to it that generates enough revenue to fund development instead of hitting PIs to raise cash via selling its equity as most Juniors have to do.

Valuation - Producer based on Gold Production only
> Current GCAT MCap = 1.025p x 1,824,978,590 =£18.7m @29-Apr-22
> POG = $1,950
> AISC = $1,000/oz to $1,050/oz ... from 29-Apr-22 interview vs my calculated Q1=$989/oz
> Production Dec-21 = 872oz production or 10.5koz/annum equivalent
> Production Dec-22 = 2koz/month when Phase 3 production expansion complete
> Assume Average production Jan-22 to Dec-22 = 1.5koz/month
> so revenue 2022 = (12x 1,500oz x $1,950) = $35.1m or £28.1m (USD=£0.8)
> so Costs 2022 = 12x 1,500oz x $1,050/oz = $18.9m or £15.1m
> Free Cashflow (FCF) = £13.0m
> P/E ratio = 18.7 / 13 = 1.44 for 2022

If we assume GCAT does NOT grow production after Dec-22 then 2koz/month will give
> so revenue 2023 = (12x 2,000oz x $1,950) = $46.8m or £37.5m (USD=£0.8)
> so Costs 2023 = Costs 2022 = $18.9m or £15.1m
> Free Cashflow (FCF) = £22.4m
> P/E ratio = 18.7 / 22.4 = 0.84 for 2023 onwards

... and if POG does what most analysts think is it going to do in late 2022 then FCF multiples up very quickly
ATB APR

So Technically we closed the trading week at 1.025p so sit at 1.025p confirmed as support following 3.5m shares purchase after hours on Friday at 1.025p which is an excellent way to end the week
ATB APR

@JC Yes just noticed that ACTUAL closing price was 1.025p at @16:38 not 1p @16:35 as shown ...

LSE need to pull their collective fingers out and 'fix' the TVR shares in circulation as well
ATB APR

@nedk CASA has nothing to do with Zambian assets and is entirely separate subsidiary of ARCM so as far as any deal with a Major is concerned is irrelevant.
ATBA PR

@GoingTTM Most of my other commodity shares have halved in value & GWMO is dropped a bit more as it is a junior at he riskier end of exploration so no real surprises.

At £3m MCap GWMO needs very little in the way of positive drill results to shift the SP substantially ... fingers crossed
ATB APR

About time !

That's a celebrating comment not a criticism in case any less generous posters here want to subvert my comment
ATB APR

@Bebeto Yes agreed. Robbie would need to get SP north of 3p or MCap £55m+ by Dec-22 to 'encourage' the 313m warrant holders to convert at 2.5p bringing in at least £7.8m new cash which I would hope would then be used to fund production growth to 50koz/annum at Kilimapesa as plant would need to at least double throughput. Current expansion of HL pads are key as they can process low grade ore that would otherwise 'dilute' main processing plant. Robbie's 1.2Mtpa implies at least 4 HL pads at 24Ktpm or 1.15Mtpa.

At £50m+ MCap with production at minimum 24koz/annum and rising .... opens up possibility of debt funding for Tanzanian mine build for example HUM raised $100m to build their new mine and they are only circa £50m MCap so these things are possible. We need to wait for Tanzanian projects mine build costs to be announced but at pace GCAT are moving we should not have too long to wait as Robbie was talking about having these costs presented to him in the next 1-2 weeks for internal planning/debate.
ATB APR

@SoG Robbie effectively made the point that they are upgrading plant, extending mine and expanding drilling fast that this will be funded from 2x capital raises (Aug-21 and Feb-22) plus what they are getting from gold sales to fund growth. In essence he wants to move faster but is constrained by available capital ... the short term remedy is increasing gold production to drive revenue up quickly which is what phase 3 accelerated development plan is all about to hit 24koz/annum gold production by Dec-22.

In relation to any further capital raises he was referring in particular to Tanzanian assets which will be "available" after the acquisition concludes in May-22. Robbie also said that he would not do anything at current SP as it would be too dilatative and wanted to get the SP up substantially whilst indicating that there are live warrants at 1.25p and 2.5p he would like to see vest first.

IMHO this implies no fund raise before 2.5p to avoid excessive shareholder dilution and to allow the 313m live warrants worth £7.8m to GCAT to vest first. So we know the minimum SP 'price' is 2.5p and we know that it will be after warrants vested which has to be by 31-Dec-22 as that is when these warrants expire. IF he raises equity capital before 2.5p he risks reducing the SP and therefore the warrant funding by implication.
AIMHO & DYOR ATB APR

Thanks Itsyou ... really encouraging interview
A previous poster asked about capital raise and Robbie responded that any raise would be linked to the Tanzanian projects and the associated deal to secure those concludes in May-22
ATB APR

Anyone got the link to a recorded version of interview

@Bonker Nominal US GDP is down 1.4% after 8% CPI inflation means US is entering a serious recession plus high inflation ... that's ugly!
10-20% lay-offs already being made with main US mortgage lenders as mortgage demand falling through the floor does not bode well either
ATB APR

Director buy and some nice steady increases in SP will do me just fine.
Near term target 1.2p, but all bets off if/when decent Q1'22 update RNS hits especially if 1koz/month target is achieved
ATB APR

Nice ... lets get drilling those 5 new holes at MJ
ATB APR

Q1'22 Operational Report is imminent as:
> Interview tomorrow 28-Apr-22 so cannot talk about 'material' updates without RNS
> Q3'21 and Q4'21 reports have been issued circa 4 weeks (2-Nov-21 & 9-Feb-22) after close of quarter in this case 31-Mar-22

Expected News:
> Confirmation of expected cash costs circa $860/oz achieved in Q1 ... assuming costs under control !
> Confirmation of Heap Leach #2 build started ... verbally confirmed already !
> Confirmation of Nyakafuru Reefs 400koz extension JORC or timeframe to approval ... already in process !
> Kilimapesa step-out & infill programme further assay results ... drilling well underway already !
> Confirmation of timeframe for Kilmapesa resource extension JORC and LOM update timeframe ... from assays
> Update on additional CIL additions, extra ball mill installation and other process plant upgrades
> Confirmation of 1koz/month gold production target finally achieved ... achieved 872oz in Dec-21
> Confirmation of Kilimapesa mining licence area extension ... under application

Remember management aligned to shareholders as ...
> 313m Placing Warrants have strike price of 2.5p, expire 31-Dec-2022 and generate £7.8m cash if exercised to fund next expansion stage push from 25koz/annum to 50koz/annum production
> Remaining Management Incentives totalling 90m shares & 90m warrants pay out on achievement of 1.5koz/month as 60m shares and 60m warrants achieved at 600oz/month already due after Nov-21 646oz production announced in Q4

Lots to look forward to and hopefully SP starts to move up substantially as shareholder value creation confirmed.
ATB APR

My weekly chart is showing uptrend channel starting with target near term around 1.15p to 1.2p anything more than that is a proper breakout with first resistance around 1.35p
I'd be very happy with 1.35p after Q1 report lands or 23% uplift from here
ATB APR

@Bonker Yes inflation flatters GDP and company revenues plus almost everything else until it doesn't ... which is where company revenues falter especially if they don't have pricing power and where increased costs bear down on profits !

This will be fun for a while and then no fun at all
ATB APR

@Bebeto Whilst I agree that current MCap/Sp is low for the value on offer your argument that the SP ought to be 2p or £38m+ MCap AHEAD of Q1 report just makes no sense given implementation risk still playing out, last reported 10.5koz annualised production and how poorly valued gold producers currently are.

I don't think the market is valuing GCAT reasonably but the market is the market. Counter-intuitively this should give PIs who are willing to DYOR an advantage particularly as GCAT has had a big seller for the last 8 weeks or so which has kept the SP lower than it might otherwise have been.
ATB APR

@Bebeto You are conflating SP with MCap again to demonstrate value/growth.

SP and MCap are NOT the same thing as MCap at Aug-21 launch was £14.5m with SP0.95p and we now have 26% more shares in circulation (used to purchase 2x Tanzanian projects plus accelerate production upgrades at Kilimapesa) so whilst SP is 'only' now up to 1.025p but the the MCap has grown 17.7% to £18.7m. Shareholder value has increased 8% measured in SP growth, but at the cost of some shareholder dilution as GCAT is growing.
ATB APR