Member Info for aprogerson

Solid Update ... was expecting some production but as per Q4'21 Ops Report it looks like Processing Plant is offline whilst planned upgrades progress & only gold 'Sales' of 1,047ozs reported.

Phenomenal progress all the same across 2 of 3 fronts whilst acquisition development plans progress:
1) Kilimapesa Infill & Expansion Drilling = increased resources, JORC category confidence & Life Of Mine
> 2022 Programme Plan = 3,000m DD and 12,000m RC drilling at Kilimapesa & "Aiming to increase the overall project resource from 670,000oz to >2Moz" up from 1.5Moz target in Q4 report
> Q1, 35x RC holes @3,420m have been drilled "400m to the east of active underground mining and opencast pit"
> Q1, 5x DD holes @871m "to determine both the strike & the down-dip extent of mineralisation" on Kili Hill
> Q1, 7x DD holes @157m underground in Adit D at Kili Hill
> RNS @12-May-22 "Assay results for the first 27 RC holes (KPGRC 005-KPGRC 032) have been received" & "Updated resource from the Kilimapesa Hill deposit expected at the end of Q2 2022" grades inline with nearby producing mine
> RNS @12-May-22 reported "52 holes (5,194m) of RC drilling completed" & "Six holes (1,241m) of DD drilling" .... discrepancy needs clarifying as 12-May-22 RNS higher than Q1 Ops report totals !

2) Process Plant Expansion & Upgrades
> RNS @9-Feb-22 "Work on the milling circuit expansion will also commence through installation of the second ball mill, which is currently in Nairobi and scheduled to be refurbished. In addition, work on the new crushing and screening plant and upgrades to the thickeners, cyclones and installation of additional CIL tanks will also commence."
> Heap Leach - 1 of 4 pads @5kt/month throughput commissioned end Mar-22 @53.2% efficiency
> Heap Leach Pilot plant completion target end Q2 versus 20kt overall production capacity whilst each pad capacity stated as 7.5kt

3) Acquisitions:
> Updates on Nyakafuru and Simba projects, Nyakafuru Reefs JORC expansion and mine costs need updating

Commentary:
Q1 Ops report contains almost no operational mining throughput, processing or recovery information which implies large scale shutdown of processing plant as upgrades and expansion are implemented especially as gold sales were quoted and not gold produced.
Heap Leach Plant - development of Pilot, individual 7.5kt pad capacity versus planned 5kt throughput needs clarifying as implies throughput once all 4 pads commissioned maybe higher than 20kt/month.
Updated MRE with revised target of 2Moz at Kilimapesa versus 1.5Moz stated in Q4 Ops Report should be interesting
ATB APR

@IamAGB That's pretty much my philosophy ... we all know Junior Developers and especially Explorers are very high risk and potentially very high reward, but you need cajones of steel and as they have no revenue then equity raises just come with the territory.

What I really like about GCAT is it has very decent & fast growing revenue (which is really rare for a Junior) and removes a huge amount of downside risk and speeds up the explorer > Developer > Producer timeline at lower execution risk. Throw in a decent, experienced and communicative BoD and well frankly I just keep wanting to pinch myself in disbelief ... in a good way !

Of course it could all go horribly wrong which of course is the risk we take with Juniors. If they get it right well the upside looks very rosy and my guess is they are 2-3 years behind Shanta who are moving towards being a 100koz producer in Q1'2023. Shanta is currently "2022 guidance of 68-76 Koz" but with high AISC $1,625 & MCap £95m, so if GCAT can hit 24koz steady state at $1,050 or even $1,150 then that should give GCAT a very healthy bump in MCap especially with a much lower cost base.
ATB APR

@Radika I'd expect a week to mobilise and setup then 4-6 weeks for each site that they drill at judging by prior exploration seasons although everything will be lab dependent
ATB APR

@Nrin Remarkable thing to say on a public BB ... would be good if it were true, but not sure he'll be as open with you again as it could be viewed as market sensitive!
ATB APR

We do like a bit of RC drilling and GWMO "now commenced at the Southern Alteration Zone (SAZ) in the Rock House group of prospects" with a 3,350m programme.

BH commented "We have a busy drilling season now under way on several of our prospects and will keep shareholders informed as we make progress."
ATB APR

@PJ FYI the 5,000 Rouble/gram price applied for about 2 weeks before the Russian central bank dropped it as the arbitrage for gold to Russian oil on offer meant that traders were making circa $600/ounce when using it to buy oil. OF course Russia was then getting Gold for its cheap oil which further reinforced Rouble strength.

I suspect Gold and silver $value has been further suppressed in passed 2-3 weeks by the West to undermine this trade which then allows China and Russia to buy more gold/silver at ever cheaper prices. This is not going to end well.
ATB APR

On the plus side my average is now way lower @0.94 and at only £13.2m MCap already producing 10.5koz as from Dec-21 figures and targeting 24koz by Dec-22 there is a lot to like
ATB APR

@Swamp Thanks for the suggestion
ATB APR

So with 1,820m shares at 0.725p MCap =£13.2m
Forecast production of 24,000oz Gold @$1,850 (yeah I know) = £37m revenue
States AISC $1,000 to $1,050 so lets use $1,050 @12koz production plus say 20% uplift on costs for 24koz
Costs = 12,000oz x 1.20 x $1,050 /1.2 = £15.2m estimate
Free cashflow = Revenue - cost = £37m - £15.2m = £21.8m profit

So forward P/E @24koz production from Dec-22 = £13.2m / £21.8m = 0.61 @$1,850 POG

I know it is a rough fag packet calculation and maybe I've missed something, but I'm not aware of anything broken so that looks very cheap to me!
ATB & DYOR APR

Boots just filled ... sorry HUM
ATB APR

@Swamp No idea but GCAT drop is wildly overdone for a fast growing producer

@Pompal All power to you .... I'll have more funds in 2-3 weeks so part of me wants it to stay here as uber cheap but part of me wants good news on progress to boost SP.
ATB APR

@PJ I'm not sure what you are reading for the source of your information but a cursory look on YouTube and dial up Luke Gromen, George Gammon, Rick Rule, Jim Rickards, Andrew McGuire, Alastair Macleod, Michael Oliver ... and if you have any more doubts take a look at Patrick Karim at Northstarbadcharts Gold and silver analysis

Russia has been very, very clever getting rid of its US$ denominated treasuries and converting it to Gold on the cheap as the West suppresses POG, Russia wants a higher gold price not lower as it underpins the Rouble and has no counterparty risk and cannot be sanctioned by the US.
ATB APR

I'm personally very encouraged by the efforts that RM and the team have been making over the 9 months since the assets were (re)launched Aug-21 with Caracal having taken over from GoldPlat a massively under-invested Kenyan gold mine that was effectively under "Care & Maintenance" for many years producing enough gold to "just" pay the bills.

I've been involved in plenty of Junior explorer, developers and producers with very different management & communication styles of variable effectiveness. To date GCATs have been the most informative and open that I have come across and given the shear scale, speed and ambition of the BoD to date I can only applaud them. However, given some of the recent confusion over possible future funding, what it may be used for, terms and timing of such RM would be wise to address some of this to avoid further investor speculation as this has not helped the SP especially given recent POG weakness.

Roll on Q1 Operational Report & Nyakafuru mine development updates
ATB APR

OOSM Again thankyou for taking the to transcribe the interview which confirms that additional funding is for new mine as part of Expansion programme at Nyakafuru that has been confirmed many times as a near term development project ready for mine build. Excerpts from Caracal presentation ... https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Caracal-presentation-Q1-2022-final-PDF.pdf
> Page 23 = "Previous positive development studies completed by Resolute Limited and based on
large scale conventional open pit operation and CIL processing plant"
> Page 26 = "NYAKAFURU - STRATEGY TO PRODUCTION" full page breakdown of next steps

Quite how this can be misinterpreted as somehow referring to Kilimapesa and current 3 phases of development works (as I have pointed out many times) has been subject to 2 rounds of specific funding in Aug-21 and Feb-22 is beyond me.
ATB APR

@OOSM Thankyou for also picking up what I have been saying about Tanzanian asset planning, development and Robbie's narrative for end of May as I was beginning to think I was listening to a different interview.
I missed the bit about the Phase 3 development being itself split into 3 so I will listen again
ATB APR

@swamp Pretty much the whole Junior mining exploration and producer sector was hated before POG fell off a cliff recently and is now loathed with typical losses of 40-60% across the board with many now stuck at historic support levels or have already broken down through them.

I still believe gold and silver juniors have a very bright future especially those with good assets, high grades, long intercepts and shallow mineralisation ... when you combine that with ability to generate healthy revenue and decent free-cashflow from tailings and/or an operating mine then it is difficult to go wrong.

IMHO I choose to believe GCAT has all of the above plus a decent BoD and very good growth prospects both at existing mine and at 2 new TZ acquisitions especially as one is ready for next move to mine build subject to cost & funding deliberations which is to be expected. I choose to believe that this is a buying opportunity with a good company going cheap primarily driven by a big seller and crashing stock market with investors struggling with poor liquidity accelerating selling as they need to raise cash quickly particularly if they are over-leveraged and get margin calls.
ATB APR

@Legalwolf Agreed. We are expecting Q1 Ops Report anytime and also RM stated that he was also reviewing Nyakafuru mine build costs just after last call with view to updating market end May-22 so I'm expecting a lot of the "known unknowns" to be addressed over the next 0 to 4 weeks as the RNSs feed through.
ATB APR

@Balanced Please be clear that the Year End results and the statement you provided was for the period to 31-Dec-21 which was AFTER the initial RTO £5.5m capital raise but BEFORE the Feb-22 £2m Capital Raise which was explicitly for "Acceleration of Phase 3 development" as per the 14-Feb-22 RNS.

For clarity I am of the mind that the Stockbox interview refered to further funding being required for:
> Future Mine build at Nyakafuru, Tanzania project when costs became available end May-22
> Kilimapesa production expansion from 24koz/annum to 48koz/annum ... stated aspiration but costs not yet published
> Any other acquisitions that may make sense to the BoD ... mentioned but again aspirational

IMHO I believe this to be the case because RTO capital INCLUDED Phase 3 and Feb-22 £2m Capital raise was to ACCELERATE it. IF (and it is a big if) phase 3 to get to 24koz production is in some way in question then the BoD have an honesty issue and everything I have seen or read about GCAT says they say what they mean and then deliver on it!
I sincerely hope I am not proved to be wrong!
ATB APR

I take just 2 consolations from this:
(1) The seller/s must now be closer to finishing than starting ... please let me be right!
(2) The current SP is actually sat on the upper channel line of downtrend channel after retesting to the down side ... a small consolation I know!
(3) Q1 2022 Operational Report is now overdue and should give the SP a lift as GCAT get further derisked
ATB APR