Member Info for aprogerson

First 3 holes drilled and now await assay results ... BH warned that labs are busy!
ATB APR

@OOSM Yes we know that in q1'22 GCAT processed 45kt ROM ore that almost exactly matched the 500tpd x28days/month operation for 14kt/month capacity. HOWEVER, as per my prior post the 4x 5kt HL pads will consume another 20kt/month plus the additional 15kt/month required when the new ball mill & CIL tanks have been installed in the main processing plant. So if the actual mine capacity as per Feb-22 RNS is correct then the mine is "capable" of producing 30kt/month but is just not running at that rate as the current plant configuration cannot cope with it (yet).

Whatever the reality GCAT need to up their production capacity for when the HL is fully commissioned and the plant upgraded as it implies a 50kt/month (15kt existing +15kt upgrade +20kt HL) ore demand versus stated mine capability of 30kt/month as at 3-Feb-22 RNS. This might explain the extra stope and the extensive mine development drives already announced alongside the new open pit operation.
ATB APR

@ID78 An 8 to 10-year mine life is considered robust so when production hits 24koz/annum in Dec-22 then a 240koz measured resource as part of the overall JORC will deliver that. My current expectation is circa 200koz uplift in overall resources with the focus having been on infill drilling to increase confidence levels to underpin the mine plan and hit that 8-10 year LOM figure.

Remember that they also need to ensure that they can ramp up production to feed the process plant and new Heap Leach. I think the regional drilling campaign will be focusing on resource growth
ATB APR

@Magoo & TN I've no idea why anyone is surprised by 'concerns' raised about the 607K JORC resources being relatively low confidence levels as this has been openly acknowledged by the BoD as GoldPlat had mine on Care & Maintenance so nothing was being spent on exploration.

Many posters myself included have pointed out that JORC measured is 61koz BUT acknowledge that the current Life of Mine (LOM) is still 2-3 years at target 24koz so this is not 'todays' problem. We also know that we have 2 drill rigs working with MRE upgrade due end Jun-22 which is expected to increase absolute quantity of JORC resources as well as confidence levels so more of ore moves from inferred > Indicated > Measured categories.
Ref: https://www.jorc.org/docs/JORC_code_2012.pdf

Part of the 'issue' was outlined by Robbie on the last call when he said that GCAT was doing this backwards where a 'traditional' Explorer would be drilling for years to prove up a JORC resource then go through a number of feasibility stages before building a mine where a final bankable feasibility study would include a mine plan showing the economically extractable ore which would then allow 'Ore Reserves' to be assessed. Instead GCAT has a working mine with a large proportion of its mineral resources at lower levels of confidence as it built the mine before doing what a 'normal' Explorer would do include having a Mine Plan.

All this just underpins the Hybrid nature of GCATs proposition being an Explorer/Developer/Producer having gone straight to revenue producing activities skipping a lot of the cash-consuming activities in-between.
You need to be comfortable with the risk/reward and the nature of what you are investing in.
DYOR ATB APR

Nice intercept and would be good to see where the 203m depth is measured from ... ie the hill or surrounding area to get an idea of relative depths for continuation or possible underground mining as 1m doesn't sound much but as ROM ore is around 2.5g/t that is nearly 12m equivalent intercept so well worth targeting for more drilling to better understand it and find more
ATB APR

@JC No it's not you ! It is the very low £14.2m MCap that is mindboggling bonkers for a Producer/Developer/Explorer!

> Highly capable and experienced BoD
> S20m+ plant with 10koz/annum gold production at AISC $1,250 and heading down (thank you HL) not up like most gold producers
> Target 24koz/annum production target end Dec-22
> 1.3Moz JORC resources across 2 projects
> Kilimapesa 3+ years Life of Mine & revised MRE end June-2022 following infill drilling programme
> S300k exploration drilling/month continues around Kilimapesa mine region
> NO DEBT

Looking forward to Nyakafuru mine development plan, associated plant capital cost and funding proposal.
ATB APR

Unfortunately I cut my losses 2 months ago after many false starts, spin and high hopes
Good luck and I hope they hit pay dirt
ATB APR

I keep an eye on what DXY (Dollar currency basket), Gold and Silver price are doing along with Real Interest rates and CPI/RPI as these all play into POG. On the weekly chart Gold has bounced around $1,860 and $1,800 support levels over the last 4 weeks and briefly tested long term support at $1,786 last week recovering to circa $1,850 so far this week.

My monthly chart shows that in Feb-22 POG broke out of this grinding downtrend from Aug-2020 to the upside and is now retesting that downtrend as (hopefully) support going forward. Fingers crossed as if it holds then we might get a bounce that will lift the whole sector including GCAT as profits/ounce produced rise.

Steve Van Metre (the Bond King) is an American commentator who focuses both Macro events as well as bond market and gives some very useful insights "Gold is about to Rally" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zyk5MW4ZqU0
Enjoy !
ATB APR

@AG1989 I can't promise to have all the facts, but try my best to infer what might actually be going on given my limited knowledge of mining/geology and the information derived from RNSs et al.

If anyone thinks I've got something wrong don't be shy and call me out ... but please say why unlike some posters who just feel the need to object because they can ?!
ATB APR

Interesting valuation anomaly ...
GCAT currently SP=0.75p & latest TVR=1820m shares so MCap = £13.65m or US$17.3m (@US$=£0.79)

Confirmed JORC compliant resources:
> Kilimapesa = 671koz @2.4g/t operating open cast & underground mines
> Nyakafuru = 659koz @2.08g/t planned open pit mine based on 140km+ drilling by ASX Resolute Mining
So nominal 1.33Moz resources confirmed so gold in the ground = US$17.3m / 1.33Moz = US$13/ounce

... oh and a FREE working mine currently generating 800oz/month at AISC1250 for US$480k profit/month and scaling up to 2koz/month or US$1.2m profit/month by end Dec-22 ... assuming POG $1,850 and AISC S1,250 does not go down as we expect it to as the recently completed 2x 5kt HL pads add to production throughput at much lower costs/ounce.

@AG1989 You're right I haven't seen many of these either and we know that considerable drilling has taken place at Kilimapesa Hill with update MRE expected end Jun-22 which can only increase this valuation anomaly given the expectation is that the Kili JORC resources will go up in terms of both quantity and confidence levels.
ATB APR

@Troajan Let's hope so and a rising POG will lift the NAV of Eagle Mining and Rincon which helps underpin the NAV
ATB APR

@Suggins I think you nailed it far more succinctly than I did !
ATB APR

@AG1989 Yes I was looking through original Dec-21 RNS trying to work through the deal structure for Nyakafuru and Simba acquisitions and work out what the cash/shares mix was upfront and then what the triggers were for further cash/share payments.

IMHO I think GCAT were not expecting the SP to drop as much as it has since the deal was signed in Dec-21 particularly against a backdrop of massive improvements in exploration +mining +processing since; clearly the risk of excessive dilution is always a consideration when growing by acquisition and in all things the BoD will need to weigh the competing call on their existing capital & revenue streams versus their desire to improve on all fronts at pace.

"Dilution" per se is not a bad thing if we get a good deal for valuable assets that have a good strategic fit which the 2x TZ assets clearly do as it adds far more value than it costs assuming the associated commercial deal is sensibly structured. The key phrase for me is "exclusion of the Nyakafura Reefs project and the Simba projects for the moment" which could really do with some more explanation, but I get the sense that this is more about the commercial deal structure particularly the timing and staging of payments than it is any lack of intent by GCAT to complete the deals.

... hopefully we will soon find out
ATB APR

@bankrupty Agreed you get them on all BBs spinning half truths and putting doubts in PIs minds that have little basis in fact or more likely just scaremongering without actually explaining on what basis they make their assertions.

I have been an investor with Arc Minerals for years and we were plagued by 2 very proficient trolls for years ... yes years. ARC then did a deal with a Major and to be fair one gave a public apology after at least 3 years on trolling on the LSE BB and then Twitter when we kicked one off LSE for having multiple accounts they used to 'like' their own trolling to help give it credibility.

It happens ... but we don't need to accept it, just call them to account and ask them to explain ... if it is constant, groundless trolling and we can evidence it then LSE will remove offending posts and ban them if it continues.
ATB APR

Ella we all know CASA has nothing to do with AAL DD as CASA is not related to Zambia licences being transferred into the JV ... or am I missing something?
ATB APR

Very impressed by Robbie as very informative ... additional information from recent IG interview:
IG: @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZNkO3DZr9U R
StockBox: @ https://stockboxmedia.com/interviews/caracal-gold-building-the-next-mid-tier-mine-producer-in-africa/

> Jan-22 production of 897oz, not hit 1koz as has lost 3-4 days of 26 normal operating days due to plant outages
> Heap Leach pilot commissioned, 2nd HL built and started on No3 of 4 plus gold poured end Apr-22
> Expect improved MRE end June-22 with more resources at higher confidence
> 2x fulltime drill rigs so plan drilling and assay updates every 2 weeks !
> Reiterated 24koz/annum production by end Dec-22
> Reiterated target 2Moz MRE from Kilimapesa and surrounding area
> Recognises that mine capacity and associated MRE certainty is needed to drive 2koz production target
> Stated staffing now risen to 600
> Reiterated that similar Explorers with similar MRE and grades trading at 2x GCAT MCap as market struggles to understand that GCAT is a Hybrid Explorer and producer
> Reiterated that Heap Leach and underground development drives to open up more underground resources to be able to increase tonnage paid for from cashflows

Robbie again very bullish about targeting GCAT as a regional Mid-Tier producer and looks to emulate Shanta Gold
ATB APR

@Hargreave Whose figures are you talking about and underweight in what way or why? Random "I disagree" statements don't help anyone
ATB APR

Don't get me wrong I'm very bullish on GCAT but At MCap £13.2m a 4x uplift would be £53m which makes no sense ... yet!
ATB APR

@ID78 It doesn't really matter whether you decouple the Crush/Mill>Grind>CIL plant from the tailings plant processing tailings or 80% depleted ore as the Tailings are already ground ready for processing to recover 52% of the residual gold. The latest Q1 Operations report says "A total of 44,846t were delivered to the processing plant from mining operations" this equates to approx. 15kt per month which is equivalent to the current ball mill capacity of 500tpd or 15ktpm ... hence my prior observation that the main "processing plant" is currently running at or near 100% capacity with any additional ore being stockpiled as the Q1 Ops report tells us they are doing.

So gold recovery from "main processing plant" is approx. 90% comprised of contribution from:
> Crush/Mill>Grind>CIL plant produces gold at 80% recovery = 80% recovery from ROM ore
> Tailing plant produces gold from Tailings at 52% recovery = 20% remaining gold x 52% recovery = 10% of ROM ore

I agree that both plants have 15kt processing capacity but I don't believe that this equates to 30kt of ROM ore/month, but 15kt as the output of one is the input to the other regardless of whether they are decoupled or not. The benefit of decoupling them is that (for instance) the Tailings plant could still be run from stockpiles if the CIL plant is taken offline for maintenance or upgrades without completely stopping gold production.
ATB APR

@ID78 I think the main issue is ramping up the production from the underground and open pit to feed the plant. Details taken from Q1 Operations report and my thoughts:

Mine Output: Q1 from underground and open pit
> To CIL/Tailings plant = 44.8kt @2.5g/t or average circa 15kt/month
> To Heap Leach = 22.7kt @1.72g/t or average circa 7.5kt/month ... was probably stockpiled for Q2 use

Current Processing Capacity:
> CIL/Tailings = 15kt/month @90% recovery (80% CIL then 52% of remaining 20% gold=90%)
> Heap Leach = 20kt/month @52% recovery (estimate rising to minimum 60% as HL optimised)

So Q1 mine production provided:
> 100% of CIL/Tailings plant current (Q2) 15kt/month OR 50% of upgraded 30kt/month capacity
> 38% of Heap Leach plant current (Q2) 20kt/month OR 6% of upgraded 120kt/month capacity

Yes they need to upgrade the CIL/Tailings plant and boost efficiency but they REALLY need to boost mine production !

Bottom line is that CIL>Tailings process plant looks like it is currently running at 100% capacity until the new ball mill and additional CIL tanks are added, whereas the lower grade ore output will need to be tripled in Q2 to fully utilise the 4 new 5kt pads giving 20ktpm HL capacity as confirmed by Robbie on IG interview.

Current Process plant potential output = 1,745oz/month max
> CIL/Tailings = 15kt/month @90% recovery @2.5g/t = 1,085oz/month ... existing plant (Jan-22 was circa 1koz)
> Heap Leach = 20kt/month @60% recovery @1.72g/t = 665oz/month ... newly built plant being commissioned

Planned Process plant potential output = +4,410oz/month max additional output
> CIL/Tailings = +15kt/month @90% recovery @2.5g/t = 1,085oz/month ... extra plant capacity post upgrades
> Heap Leach = +100kt/month @60% recovery @1.72g/t = 3,325oz/month ... yet to be announced & built

Once complete this will be one serious operation with only modest upgrades needed to make 2koz/month but capable of producing over 6koz/month or 72koz/annum . Note: Once the Heap Leach is fully commissioned the %recoveries should go up to 60-70%.

You have to admire their ambition and as they scale up mine/plant output the AISC will drop and FCF will be huge BUT the biggest challenge will be scaling up mine production to feed this monster !
ATB APR