Member Info for aprogerson

@woodlaker I have done that too!

POG has broken below my main uptrend support and is now sat on another after retesting price support @$1,725 ... if this does not hold then next price support is around $1,680.

What I think we are seeing is price capitulation across the equity market feeding across into POG which is expected as everyone moves back to USD as a safe haven. Hopefully the penny will drop that USD is devaluing by 10% and POG is a store of value as more funds and HNWs move back into hard assets, PGMs and metals miners.

GCAT will need to fend for itself until POG turns and the best way to continue to do that is to build and demonstrate value. The REALLY big plus for me is that GCAT is low MCap and is a gold producer so should be one of the first out of the gate after Gold Majors and well before pure Developers and/or Explorers when POG turns.

GCAT Key near-term building blocks to add £value are:
> Updated MRE - decent Kilimapesa reserve to establish 3-5 year LoM & increased resources
> Production - confirm 1koz/month gold production milestone in Q2 results
> Heap Leach - confirm Q2 capacity commissioned
> Nyakafuru - confirm mine development plan, costs and funding
> Route to 2koz Production - demonstrate steps to getting there ahead of Dec-22
ATB APR

RCR commences Heritage Surveys at Westin prospect to clear way for commencement of 10,000m of air core drilling https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02540526-6A1099072?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Best historical intercept was 8m at 3.85g/t from 84m (including 4m at 6.9g/t) so we know it is mineralised ... the question is how much, how deep and is it economic? Westin contains 25km of potential strike downtrend from massive Telfer & Ironclad copper/gold deposits and another 25km along Grace trend. The Hasties and Central prospects also sit on the Grace trend albeit nearer Newmont's giant Telfer mine (32Moz Gold and 1Mt Copper).

RCR have been a lot slower to roll out their exploration campaigns as set out in their 21-Dec-2020 Prospectus, but at A$4.35m MCap with A$1.9m cash at end Mar-22 they are still well funded
ATB APR

Come on Robbie there cannot be many more T's to cross and I's to dot on that MRE we have all been waiting for?!
ATB APR

RM if you are listening ... It's always best to "under-promise and over-deliver"

Looking forward to updated MRE next week
ATB APR

TBH I'm not sure what any discussion around a potential JV is going ...
> KIlimapesa mine = 100% owned working mine 1koz/month to 2koz/month over next 5-6 months
> Kilimapesa MRE = 531koz > 800koz+ MRE awaited updated JORC & regional drilling from FCF underway
> Nyakafuru project = 'mine ready' 658koz MRE based on open pit & CIL processing
> NYakafuru Reefs = 400k 'Add-On' project awaiting acquisition confirmation

IMHO & from prior 4-July calculations Kilimapesa anticipated production:
Q2 = max 1,097oz/month from Plants 1 & 2 only "possible" vs. 900oz "best guess"
Q3 = max 1,689oz/month from Plants 1, 2 & 3 only "possible" vs. 1,200oz "best guess"
Q4 = max 1,689oz/month from Plants 1, 2 & 3 only "possible" vs. 1,500oz "best guess"
Dec-22 = max 2,577oz/month from Plants 1, 2, 3 & 4 (1x 30kt pad) only "possible" vs. 2,000oz "best guess"

Using RM stated AISC $1,250 then Kilimapesa is kicking out considerable FCF using 'Best guess' & $1,800 POG:
Q2 @900oz = 900oz*(1,800-1,250) = $495k or £410k minimum
Q3 @1,200oz = 1,200oz*(1,800-1,250) = $660k or £548k minimum
Q4 @1,500oz = 1,500oz*(1,800-1,250) = $825k or £685k minimum
Dec-22 @2koz = 2koz*(1,800-1,250) = $1,100k or £913k minimum

IMHO I think AISC will come down as more HL comes online so FCF should rise by 5-15% for the same gold produced. I also think my 'Best Guess' figure is very conservative & should be beaten. We know Kilimapesa $300k/month drilling campaign runs to Dec-22 but is easily affordable versus FCF being generated.

1) Kilimapesa - no compelling need or reason for a JV as operational mine is a 100% owned cash cow company maker
2) Nyakafuru - mine build ought to be via debt & secured on Kilimapesa mine & FCF

A JV is an alternative method of funding, but at cost of %share of asset, profit and/or NSR ... GCAT should be checking debt-funded route first and then if all else fails consider a JV. If POG recovers to $2k or outperforms as many predict, then the 'value' of a JV drops off very quickly versus debt-funded options.

JVs work well for explorers with a good asset but no revenue to develop it and trade a %share of asset for cash for an agreed $spend to drill it out over an agreed period. GCAT is not in that camp ... BUT if it decided to it should be at a much lower %share as it could contribute to both CAPEX and OPEX costs.
ATB APR

Just love these guys Andrew McGuire is just fantastic ... latest update out earlier today "Where is your gold? Derivative market EXPOSED Feat. Robert Kientz"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y32_E5Uk9qQ

Where is your physical? About 2,500oz under a hill in Kenya based on current 540k JORC and very, very happy if they can push this to 1Moz or even 2MOz over time!
ATB APR

I have been looking at Blackrock Silver doing exactly what GWMO have been doing but at giant Tenopath silver district also in Nevada. BlackRock is at MCap £62m and is way ahead of GWMO with a decent JORC and historic underground mine but shows what can be achieved
ATB APR

@Trek Be careful anyone would think we are conspiracy theorists, unfortunately POG is the "Anti-Dollar" and a direct competitor to USD so central to the current economic war.

I prefer to look at what CBs are actually doing rather than what they are telling us what to do. CBs are currently repatriating their gold and buying serious amounts more at these cheap prices (assuming that they can get physical) whilst the West 'sells' paper gold to depress the price and the East happily buys and takes physical delivery it whilst it is on sale. I don't think pricing gold or oil in Roubles and then sanctioning Russian gold was a coincidence.

It will be interesting to see what happens when physical metal becomes impossible to source particularly if no one wants to sell it at these low prices unless its paper gold being sold ... when this turns I think we'll get the mother of all "short squeezes" but unfortunately as we are talking about gold here so sadly something big will need to break properly first.

I'll remain a happy holder of gold in the ground with a mine sat on top in sunny Kenya focusing on value and taking the opportunity to top up whilst it is on sale at a few USD/ounce.
ATB APR

@Trek Does this now count as "Blood on the Streets" and "be greedy when others are fearful" ... or more sector woe to come?

Looking at POG chart it is basically UGLY UGLY UGLY but has not yet tested $1,725 (Sept-21) or $1,680 (Mar-21) so not sure if this counts as "Capitulation" or not yet.

Good job GCATs AISC is $1,250 and heading lower then as we are still profitable so acquisition targets will only be getting cheaper :-)
ATB APR

GUN is an Aussie Investment vehicles primarily focused on early stage resource developers and a few other 'interesting' growth areas. Current Market woes do not help and ongoing PGM bear market has crucified the PGM sector ... most of the investment are good ones but in a hated sector
ATB APR

POG is getting slammed @$1,745 after breaking long-term support and every gold producer and explorer is massively down over last 6-12 months ... it's not personal, its not GCAT its the market
ATB APR

The Euro and Yen are getting hit badly as they are behind where the FED is with interest rates which in turn strengthens the DXY Dollar index as the dollar gets stronger relative the other Fiat currencies. The upshot is this means that anything priced in dollars goes down in value think any commodity plus gold and silver which are currently being smashed down.

Higher DXY = (generally) lower POG hence gold producers like GCAT being hammered.
So FED can print multi- Trillions of new dollars and price of 'real stuff' like gold & commodities goes down ... go figure!
ATB APR

@Greg Not sure JORC resources work like that but 6 months of infill and expansion drilling completed to date will help as will amending cut-off grade on existing drill data
ATB APR

Kilimapesa share of current JORC is 531k resources at 1g/t cut-off grade (Jun-22 presentation p12) as original JORC was based around economics of traditional plant. Now GCAT are using Heap Leach and POG is significantly higher then when original JORC was completed in 2008 when POG was circa $600/oz I expect that the cut off grade will be dropped to around 0.5g/t as much lower grades are not only technically feasible but also economically feasible. This will involve remodelling of original drill results as lower grade mineralisation can now be included in the economically available revised MRE which should also increase overall resources but depress overall JORC average grade whilst increasing confidence levels due to additional infill & expansion drilling at Kilimapesa.

What will this do to the JORC? It should go up ... a lot and more resources will move from inferred>indicated>measured.
Its all good
ATB APR

@ID78 Presentation can be read 2 ways
1) Plant 4 - Pad 1-4 to be ....... constructed AND commissioned during Q4 of 2022 or
2) Plant 4 - Pad 1-4 to be constructed and ...... (then) commissioned during Q4 of 2022

Can be read both ways ... but photo show 2 very large HL pads under construction next to 4 small existing pads with pregnant ponds between them as you might expect if they were to be shared. Looking at scale existing pads are 5kt so if building 2x large pads these would need to be 60kt each or 12x scale of 5kt pads so it looks about the right relative scale and in the right place to share gold & cyanide recovery facilities.
ATB APR

@ID78 Nice spot & yes I think you're right Plant 4 construction is underway and configured as 2 large pads. Not sure if they will share recovery ponds or be standalone ... it looks shared which should make commissioning quicker but could be wrong.
https://caracalgold.com/gallery/

@CBB It will be Rock House drill assay results and then onto next drill targets
ATB APR

I think that the TR1 is because he has OCD and he just wanted to get it to a nice large round number and 100m shares just seemed appropriate.

I'm just jealous really!
ATB APR

@ID78 No you are spot on Plant 1 & 2 is 15ktpm up to when they are upgraded and extra ball mill and CIL tanks are fitted which has been pushed back to Q1'23. On that basis we will have the 15ktpm and 1koz production capacity up to then which I am guessing will be at least Dec-22 so that they can hit the 2koz target set.

Once we get into Q1'23 my expectation is that they won't take Plant 1 & 2 offline until the 2nd 30kt HL pad is operational so that 2x 30kt HL pads should be circa 1.6koz more than replacing Plant 1 & 2 at 15ktpm & 1koz/month.

On the basis that GCAT said that the first 30kt HL pad is already under construction it should be no more than 2-3 months to commission so easily online before Dec-22 hence my figures especially when they have already completed Hl flowsheets with Plant 3 pads earlier in the year derisking things further hence my confidence that they can roll Plant 4 pads out faster.
ATB APR