Member Info for aprogerson

@ID78 Yes Cora's CAPEX looks high if it is just HL but they still need screening and crushing to feed it. Interestingly GCAT 4x5kt HL and 2x60kt HL gives 140ktpm or 1.68Mtpa overall throughput assuming 1-month Hl cook cycle or 920ktpa on 3-month HL cook cycle as previously calculated which agrees with GCATs June presentation datasheet:

Annualised 'Steady State' throughput & Production estimates from Q2/3 2023:
> Plant 1&2 = 30kt *12months *2.5/31.1 *91% = 26,300oz/year ... upgraded in Q1/2 2023
> Plant 3&4 = 140kt/3m cycle time *12months *1.72/31.1 *70% = 21,666z/year ... completed Q1 2023 latest
So 'Nameplate' gold production = 48koz/annum or 4koz/month as per June presentation

Assuming Q1 grades can be maintained and announced plant build/upgrades goes ahead as scheduled. I used my central HL %recovery estimate also stated by Cora for their mine build plan. Looking at known grades, plant throughput and %recoveries then June presentation figures give 4koz/month (almost) exactly ... I don't believe in fairies or coincidences!
ATB APR

@ID78 what is interesting is Cora's HL %recoveries is at 70% which is smack bang in my expected 65/75% band but of course completely dependent on grade and processing time. GCATs pilot HL from Q1 Operations report was 53.5% recovery after a minimal 2-week leach period so a longer 1-month or 3-month cycle as GCAT June Presentation sugests should get you into teh 65/75% recover range
ATB APR

@Suggins/ID78 I'll go through Cora's MRE numbers & Cut-off grades when it cools off, but just to note we need to be careful not to conflate cut-off grade with average grade for example using supplied figures ....
1.0g = 513koz ... 513oz at grades above 1g/t so average will be obviously higher than 1g/t
0.8g = 603koz ... implies extra 90koz at grades between 0.8/1.0 g/t to main MRE
0.5g = 779koz ... implies extra 266koz at grades between 0.5/1.0 g/t or +176koz between 0.5/0.8g/t to main MRE
0.4g = 809koz ... implies extra 296koz at grades between 0.4/1.0 g/t or +30koz between 0.4/0.5g/t to main MRE

So looking at above why would you go for the 30koz at 0.4g/t unless you had to dig through it to get at the higher grade ore in which case you might as well process it?

Lower cut-off grades will therefore flatter top-line MRE gold koz, but this will dilute overall MRE average grade depending on the relative ratios in each cut-off grade 'band'. Essentially it tells us how much gold is there but NOT how much gold is economically available as lower grade need you need to extract, shirt, crush and mill more ore which then costs more money to process for less gold in return. The miner also needs to build a model and associated mine plan to ensure it can be commercially extracted as the same grade ore if found deeper down generally costs more to extract but processing would be the same.

Not sure that helps
ATB APR

@Suggings WOW I was expecting 0.5/0.6g/t as a revised MRE cut-off ... are Cora suggesting HL for their processing to make this viable? I'm sure that flattered their MRE considerably albeit at cost of overall average grade
ATB APR

@Swamp I know what you mean but that Andy McGuire did unearth a large chunk of the conspiracy some 10 years back and started process in US to get it addressed including getting BBC involved in making a documentary. Curiously case was closed and BBC withdrew overnight.

I am mindful that I need to avoid 'capture' so do try to 'read' as widely as I can as well to draw what conclusions that I can. This leaves me with a number of things to look out for:
1) large scale money creation (check) ... think FED, BoE, BoJ & ECB 2008 onwards
2) leads to large scale delayed rises in PPI (check) ... the figures for energy in particular are horrific
3) leads to large scale delayed rises in CPI (check) ... check ShadowStats for prior calculation methodologies so compare like-for-like CPI and RPI
4) leads to large scale reduction in purchasing power (check) as public starts to feel the squeeze
5) stuff starts to break (check) as public cannot get stuff due to cost and/or unavailability (check)
6) most exposed governments start to break first (check)
Hrmmm ... not looking good and there is plenty of evidence to demonstrate how this goes & how to protect yourself
ATB APR

@Swamp If interested some light reading/watching on the topic from people instrumental in unearthing how it has been done by use of paper metal or derivatives, by whom and trying to explain what the various reports and figures mean in plain English. Some more light reading so enjoy ....

Robert Krantz @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6efOKOOcWQQ
Andrew McGuire @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNq7yc_aXxo
Palisades Gold Radio @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veikpXHoilg
... and if you like big-picture strategic thinking stuff check out David Murrin and Peter Zeihan

IMHO check out Miners & physical metal (not investment advice)
ATB APR

@Swamp As always Comex and LBMA is complicated & largely opaque ... big 4 American banks used to be very short silver and are now net long after taking the price down so that they could exit their shorts drawing in speculators who are now net short "because the price is going down" so commercial banks taken the long side of the Spec shorts. If you look at contract figures, the silver remaining in the vaults is dropping fast whilst more contracts are being stood for delivery. In other words whatever is being spun in the media in the 'real world' savvy investors are buying up physical gold and silver whilst it is available and "on sale" ... this cannot last and as more work out what is happening this process will accelerate.

This is screaming to me that whilst the 'price' of both silver & gold may go down some more due to short term capitulation as investors need cash this thing will turn and when it does it will likely turn quickly when the FED pivots which is probably weeks away now. Buckle up.
AIMHO & ATB APR

LOL only CCZ can spin processing ore into concentrate is a 10x upgrade at the Big One!
ATB APR

@GoingToThe Moon I used to be indecisive as well ... but now I just don't know
ATB APR

@Greg Good spot ... the Feb-22 AGM Notice stated "As at 18 February 2022, the Company’s issued ordinary share capital comprises 1,824,978,590 Ordinary Shares"
Seems to be best explanation
ATB APR

@Kew GWMO should now have some near term opportunities to generate revenue to help offset any further dilution to fund future exploration which would be outstanding news.
1) IF OMCO drill hits ANY unmined, accessible shallow veins which can can be processed via JV processing operation
2) OMCO historic stockpiled ore - sampled and awaiting assays
3) Large historic tailing - drilled, sampled and awaiting assays
Any of the above are now entirely possible and if proven will be transformative for GWMO MCap as they will be quick turnaround & revenue generating
ATB APR

Board changes:
1) Stephan Muller - new Non-Exec director with strong background in mining and investment industries plus is still CEO of German boutique investment bank ... as I don't believe in fairies or coincidences this screams well connected to European old money, HNW and family offices wanting to get a good chunk of their money out of the fiat banking system into hard assets which is handy as GCAT Nyakafuru project might need some CAPEX soon! Germany has a long history of sound money after WW2 & Weimar hyperinflation so they understand very well what can happen and how to protect themselves ... unfortunately for the Germans they are part of the Euro which just hit parity with the dollar and inflation will seriously take off without Russian gas ... not looking good!
2) Riian Lombard - General Manager overseeing recent growth & consolidation story now promoted to COO is a good call
ATB APR

Morning Kew Very interesting RNS the most intriguing being OMCO known unmined vein & not drilled until now ! Multiple references to quartz chips in halo around previously mined veins and continuation again referring to quartz rock chips.
I get the sense we are being led to believe that these quartz rock chips are strong indicators of mineralisation?
ATB APR

@Greg It's going to be an interesting few months that's for sure
ATB APR

@greg As I said on Friday these are the possibilities to raise funds and/or fund CAPEX as I see it or are you referring to something else?
Dilutative:
> Equity raise = issue shares for £CAPEX ... unwelcome dilution at lower SP & then share overhang = unpleasant
Non-Dilutative
> Debt/loan = borrow $CAPEX vs. term sheet for repayment ... Good for right deal & cashflow funded over longer term
> Royalty stream = trade £CAPEX for a %future share of future production ... ok but %share grows if resource grows
> Cashflow = use Kilimapesa cashflow to fund full or part of £CAPEX costs ... may not be fast enough for GCAT

I think we disagree on production numbers for 2022 as I think it will be between 900oz and 2koz from Q2 to Q4 plus I've laid out my numbers including grades, plant, %recoveries, sequencing and so forth including any assumptions made. I don't see it falling below 900oz/month with Plant 1 & 2 online throughout 2022 until they upgrade them in early 2023 and then you add HP on top of that hence my numbers.

If they can swing a capped Royalty stream for CAPEX I think everyone would be happy as no one thinks of a 1-3% stream off any future production as a debt.
ATB APR

@greg What is a "rather large non-dilutive cash injection" ?
No one is going to put cash in without shares or warrants in which case it will dilute existing shareholders. If it is a loan/debt then it doesn't dilute ... is that what you mean and if so where can I find the details?
ATB APR

@Swamp thankfully I did the same with move from HUM to GCAT and down 5% rather than 45% if I'd have stayed with HUM. Hopefully GCAT will bounce some more and I'll look to reinvest back in HUM, but AISC & Profit here is dire. How Dan can still hold his head up and carry on is anyone's guess as HUM should be absolutely flying even at this POG
Sorry not trying to deramp!
ATB APR

@Bebeto The weekly chart is super clear that this well established resistance/support @0.875p so I am hoping we close at or above this level today so bullish trend continues as pullback has been tiny given 50% rise in the last week.

Given recent positive MRE news and expected Q2 Operations Report in 2-3 weeks time we should get 900oz+ from existing Plant 1&2 PLUS new Plant 3 Heap Leach adding another circa 140oz per 5kt pad assuming short 1-month cycle ... just don't know how many pads now operational or %recoveries ... yet! If that is the case then GCAT should crush 1koz/month and probably hit 1.3koz to 1.5koz/month at some point in Q2. When they do that will put a rocket under the SP.
ATB APR

ID78/Mickey Funding is a tricky issue as "it's complicated" ... hopefully I've demonstrated using their own RNSs, presentation and the original Aug-21 prospectus that GCAT does not need CAPEX funding for KIlimapesa to hit 2koz/month target by latest Dec-22 or 4koz/month in Q2/3 2023 by my estimates.

My numbers lead me to conclusion that GCAT gold output from Kilimapesa AFTER hitting 2koz target in Dec-22 will range between 1koz and 2koz until AFTER Plant 1&2 are fully upgraded by end Jun-23 (June presentation) when they can switch from 1-month (higher gold output) HL cook cycle to 3-month (lower output at higher %efficiency) cycle and hit 4koz/month longer term target. I have reverse engineered their figures from June presentation starting Jul-23 & numbers fit their profile given known grades, plant capacity and efficiencies as demonstrated by my 3-July posts " RE: Jun-22 Presentation Analysis".

Nyakafuru Project ... we also know that they have acquired the Nyakafuru project (RNS 31-May-22) and want to:
> build an open pit mine to exploit "high-grade shallow gold resources of 658,751oz at 2.08g/t"
> start drill programme to expand/infill current JORC MRE in Q3/4
... both of these will need to be funded in some way so GCAT unlike most pure Explorer actually has some very good choices, but they are choices and come with compromises so relative gain vs. relative cost/risk.

GTCAT have not declared costs for Nyakafuru mine build, but various funding choices available:
> Joint Venture (JV) = partner funds development for %share of project ... zero cost to GCAT but give up %share
> Equity raise = issue shares for £CAPEX ... unwelcome dilution at lower SP & then share overhang = unpleasant
> Debt/loan = borrow $CAPEX vs. term sheet for repayment ... Good for right deal & cashflow funded over longer term
> Royalty stream = trade £CAPEX for a %future share of future production ... ok but %share grows if resource grows
> Cashflow = use Kilimapesa cashflow to fund full or part of £CAPEX costs ... may not be fast enough for GCAT

We can only guess at this point and have to trust that GCAT will take a sensible route to funding Nyakafuru mine build. My best guess is a combination of Debt/loan and cashflow, but hopefully structured so that repayments start AFTER Kilimapesa output hits 4koz/month from Q3-2023 so avoids unnecessary dilution and draws down cashflow from when it peaks given CAPEX sunk into developing Kilimapesa gold production.
ATB APR

Updated summary adapted from recent posts, RNSs & debate on this BB:
Kenya:
> KIlimapesa mine = 100% owned working mine 1koz/month Q1/2 to 2koz/month by end Q4 Dec-22
> Kilimapesa MRE (Batch 1&2 infill) = 566koz RNS @12-Jul-22 so 10 year LoM @target 24koz production
> Kilimapesa MRE (Batch 3&4 Expansion) = Target for Oct-22 so expecting considerable new resources to added
> Red Ray MRE = 140koz JORC ... await addition to exploration licences
> Drill Programme = Batches 1, 2 & 3 complete and #4 expansion underway at $300k/month cost
Tanzania:
> Nyakafuru project = 'mine ready' 658koz MRE based on open pit & CIL processing ... await plan & funding in Q3/4
> NYakafuru Reefs = 400k 'Add-On' project ... await acquisition confirmation

Production - extensive upgrades:
1) Mine to expand ore production - added extra stopes underground and open pit at KIlimapesa
2) Process Plant existing & new capacity:
> Plant 1 = existing 15ktpm Traditional screen> Mill> Grind> Gravity separation & CIL processing
> Plant 2 = existing 5ktpm Tailings CIL processing plant fed by Plant 1
> Plant 3 Small Heap Leach (4x 5kt pads) = newly built, commissioning and in production Q2'22
> Plant 4 HUGE Heap Leach (2x 60kt pads) = build underway Q2/3'22
3) Process Plant - upgrading capacity & %recovery improvements in Q1/2'23
> Plant 1&2 = existing 15ktpm plant to be upgraded to 30ktpm

Kilimapesa anticipated production - based on Q1 Operations Report RNS 20-May-22 & latest presentation:
Q2'22 = max 1,097oz/month from Plants 1 & 2 only "possible" vs. 900oz "best guess" & bit more with some HL
Q3'22 = max 1,689oz/month from Plants 1, 2 & 3 only "possible" vs. 1,200oz "best guess"
Q4'22 = max 1,689oz/month from Plants 1, 2 & 3 only "possible" vs. 1,500oz "best guess"
Dec-22 = max 2,577oz/month from Plants 1, 2, 3 & 4 (0.5x 60kt pad) only "possible" vs. 2,000oz "best guess"
Note: Assumes Heap Leach is 1 month cook cycle & plant 4 partial production

Bottom Line Finances assuming steady State 2koz/month from Dec-22:
Using RM stated AISC $1,250 then Kilimapesa kicks out high FCF using POG=$1,800:
Dec-22 = 2koz*(1,800-1,250) = $1,100k or £913k minimum/month
> Annual Revenue = $43.2m or £36.3m at 24koz/annum production
> Annual Free cashflow = $13.2m or £11m at POG=$1,800 & AISC =$1,250

Kilimapesa Fully built-out & upgraded operation from Q2/3-2023 = 4koz/month
Plant 1&2 = 30kt *(2.5g/t *0.91)/31.1 = 2,180oz ... assume 20day/month operation & 91% recovery
Plant 3 (4x 5kt pads) = 20kt /3m *(1.72g/t *0.70)/31.1 =260oz (see Note)
Plant 4 (2x 60kt pads) = 120kt /3m *(1.72g/t *0.70)/31.1 = 1,560oz (see Note)
Note: uses Q1'22 achieved grades & HL recovery improved 52.5% to 70% (best guess) on 3-month cook cycle

IMHO route to Dec-22 @2Koz/month & 4koz/month in Q3/4-23 needs no new CAPEX, but switch HL cycle from 1 to 3-month cook cycle as implied by latest presentation. Gold production will be 2-3koz in Q1/2'23 due to Plant 1&2 upgrades.
ATB APR