Member Info for aprogerson

@Mickey Nice spot. New lab means that GCAT can complete their own assays and accelerate MRE upgrades.
I wonder if it is rented or purchased?
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@suedees Yes both gold and silver miners, explorers and developers are ALL very frustrating at the moment with Juniors suffering the most with losses of 40-60% or more being fairly typical so GCAT being at identical MCap as it was in Aug-21 launch, but down circa 30% in SP terms is actually testament to progress to date given poor sector backdrop.
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POG is having a very bad day

@bankrupty As the Chinese say "May you live in interesting times" and yes I am expecting DXY to hit 110 and possibly 112 not because US$ is strong, but because it has less problems than GBP, JPY or Euro so is RELATIVELY more desirable.

I sincerely hope that POG does not drop below $1,676, but if it does I expect COMEX and LBMA draining of metals to accelerate so when the FED pivots (who knows when) then you rerate should be explosive which is why I am not selling down my gold and silver junior producers. Thankfully GCAT has a low AISC of $1,250 so will do well and may even do better as it will be well placed to pickup cheap assets that are near-term producers if/when POG capitulates.
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@SW A prior photo very clearly shows existing HL Plant 3 just behind these 2 new Plant 4 HL pads
https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/KILIMAPESA_DRONE-20-1-1024x682.jpg

Looks like DXY is now trying to break up through recent high at 109, but at the cost of both gold and silver which are now broken down through support. I am now expecting POG to revisit the recent bottom at $1,676 this week.

Silver is looking very, very dodgy having formed a clear Head & Shoulders with neckline at $18.8 where it paused Friday ... today it has broken down to $18.55 with my downside target with a measured move down to $16.88. The pandemic low was $11.33 which is way below the cost of most mines production. The 'Black Swan' events have now lined up especially for silver it is primarily by-product of zinc and lead production but lots of smelters are now closing due to high energy prices.

Gold and silver metal is now being drained from metal exchanges primarily by Central Banks and more markedly by HNWs and family offices as both metals now have the 'For Sale' sign hung out on them ... whilst it is still available to buy that is!

Another way of holding 'cheap' gold and silver is via Junior Miners such as GCAT where their gold cost less than $8/ounce to purchase and that average 'cost' is dropping as they discover more. A primary mining cost is energy which is rising fast but at $1,250 AISC GCAT is very well position to remain profitable and WHEN gold revalues when DXY reverses then GCAT will rerate accordingly. GCAT is simply a low cost, low-risk 'call' option of future POG.
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@SW Interesting photo showing 2 new "Commercial" HL pads under construction to become Plant 4
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@suggins Interesting point as I have seen other producers effectively raising debt and securing it against their capital assets such as their plant ... you might be on to something, but not sure what the assets are worth albeit we see the figure of $20m used or indeed what leverage ratio any lenders may require over those assets for any loan?
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Nice RNS confirming progress on JV plant design will include Gravity separation and MOST importantly leach operations, but no confirmation whether this is:
> Heap Leach = low CAPEX +Low OPEX and medium 65-75% combined %recovery
> CIL = high CAPEX +medium OPEX and very high 85-95% combined %recovery
I am expecting this to be a low CAPEX and low OPEX operation so most likely to be Heap Leach which is also fast to build.

Interminable wait for assays results continues ....
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I am expecting this current POG rally to be a bear market rally followed by a capitulation plunge down to very strong support $1,680 and to form a double-bottom. DXY is currently pausing and will likely break back up from 108 towards 120 which will not be pretty if it happens BUT will give those with cash a good last low entry point in gold and especially silver mining juniors.

I'm not sure if I hope I am right or wrong as this will 'break' stuff big time ... hold some physical metal Britannia's just in case the SHTF!
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@Alf Tricky, they are 6-9 months behind where they had planned to be and are at last rolling out 10km of aircore drilling at Westin and also at Hasties-Grace trend . Unfortunately the EIS co-funded Hasties deeps drill came up blank, but I understand that they have one co-funded hole yet to drill there and are reanalysing tehir data before they restart.

Presentation June-22 = https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/rcr/36d00a08-032.pdf
Hasties drill results @11-Aug-22 = https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/rcr/2a52785a-3df.pdf
Cash at 30-Jun-22 = https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/rcr/3576a2b8-dfa.pdf

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@QL we have just had Q2 Operational update so next scheduled "news" is:
> updated MRE in Oct-22 ... presume Batch 3 & 4 drill results plus maybe declaring JORC compliance
> Q3 Operational report to end end Sept-22 ... normally expect 5-6 weeks delay so Oct-22

Other news that is in the pipeline and may land anytime is:
Kilimapesa, Kenya
> Plant 1 Mill & CIL upgrade - update on planned start & timescale
> Plant 2 Tailings upgrade - update and/or confirmation that is complete
> Plant 3 HL - completion pads 3 and/or 4
> Plant 4 HL - completion pad 1, configuration and/or commissioning
> Red Roy licence area - confirmation that repatriated into GCAT exploration licence portfolio
> Expansion Drilling - Batch 3 & 4 updates and/or assay results

Tanzanian Projects
> Nyakafuru
>> confirmation of acquisition closure
>> Expansion drilling campaign start & details/scope
>> Mine Development Plan & funding
> Simba - news on project acquisition progress
> Nyakafuru Reefs - news on project acquisition progress

We also know that the team line-up has changing so can expect possible news on Corporate Funding, acquisitions and/or funding for Nyakafuru mine development in due course
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@ItsYou & Trek I have with forethought and malice invested my GBPs into junior explorers and moved my investments towards junior producers with plenty of proven metal (priced in dollars) in the ground ... why? USD is the least 'dirty shirt' so in times of strife will strengthen versus GBP which is a nice hedge versus the GBP for my investments. If you look at POG performance over the last few YEARS it has performed well and in 2022 has actually held its value rather well in USD and even better in anything else especially if you live in Japan, Zimbabwe or Turkey whose fiat currencies have devalued to varying degrees.

Curiously most CBs are now nett purchasers of gold and silver despite discouraging their populations. The West is trying to devalue gold & silver to make their fiat currencies look better whilst the East is buying it up cheap as they know what is eventually coming!

Ray Dalio's "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" is a must watch and clearly lays it out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
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I see POG & silver are being caned again today as DXY bounces up off Feb-22 strong up-channel which is putting pressure on commodity and miner prices in general. There has been a $50 or 2.8% drop in POG and a $1.8 or 8.7% drop in Silver over the last 6 trading days.

I can see POG support at $1,724/1,736 but if that does not hold it opens up support down at $1,680 which is not great but as GCAT has a very low AISC of $1,250 and more Heap Leach coming online which will drop AISC further than we can remain highly profitable once we also strongly raise output.
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I think the lower price is simply driven by reduced free cashflow linked to:
> POG is under pressure @$1,755 ... AISC is low $1,250 so still $500+ profit/ounce
> BUT ,,,, Q2 Operations show low levels of gold production whilst they upgrade the plant

Looking at it another way GCAT launched on LSE Aug-21 so has been listed for 12 months with MCap & POG unchanged!
Aug-21 & GCAT MCap = £13m with POG @$1,700
Aug-22 & C+GCAT MCap = £13.6m with POG @$1,755

Is GCAT really worth only 5% more than it was a year ago considering massive CONFIRMED progress since inception?
> New open pit at Kilimapesa now operational
> Kilimapesa underground mine stopes doubled and being expanded
> Plant 1 & 2 refurbished @15ktpm throughput maintained
> Plant 3 Heap Leach with 20-30kt/month nominal capacity ... 3/4 pads now commissioned
> Plant 4 Heap Leach with 120kt/month nominal capacity ... construction underway
> Kilimapesa MRE confirmed by batch 1&2 infill drill campaign & 10-year LoM established
> Acquired Nyakafuru, Tanzania near-term mine build project with 658koz JORC

We also know that we have near-term updates in Q3 ...
> Plant 2 Tailings being upgraded from 15ktpm to 30ktpm throughput now underway
> Kilimapesa regional batch 3&4 expansion drilling campaign underway & revised MRE due Oct-22
> Nyakafuru infill & expansion drilling programme starts Sept-22

Not sure what all the fuss is about as we have a strong. capable management team who just keep delivering ... true they could provide us with more information in a more consistent and/or informative manner but hey they're busy!
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@quicklearner You also need to consider that most Junior producers and/or explorers have dropped 40-60% over the last year primarily driven by gold/silver weakness. GCAT is down from 1.87p peak in Oct-21 to 0.8p today so 57% down from peak but only down 0.1p from Aug-21 launch at 0.9p or a 12% drop. However looking at the SP alone masks growth in GCAT as it was £13m MCap at launch but is now £15m so a £2m growth reflecting improvements in mine, production, management team, MRE and new Tanzanian project which given the backdrop is remarkable.
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Q2 Operational report is a welcome update and lots of good progress across the board with further reiteration of the 2koz gold production target for Dec-22.

Known Knowns:
> Nyakafuru project acquisition now confirmed & paid for
> plants 1, 2 & 3 are now effectively working at very low 265oz/month combined average throughput
> Plant 2 Tailings is now offline for optimisation
> Plant 3 HL has 2 pads confirmed as operational, but judging by 16kt reported as loaded onto 7.5kt max load pads implying 3 are now in use going into Q3
> Q2 Mine output was lower as ore storage is full as Processing plants not using as much ore
> Mined ore grades to respective stockpiles consistent with Q1 mined output

Known Unknowns:
> Combined production output =746oz so no idea which plant produced what, at what grade or %efficiency
> HL cook cycle time linked to 49.2% recovery figure has not been stated
> Red Ray exploration licence confirmation outstanding and no update provided
> Plant 1 main plant uptime and/or upgrade scheduling not reported
> Nyakafuru project mine build costs & funding details not provided
> Acquisition of Nyakafuru Reefs and/or Simba project details not provided

In Summary:
No analytical production updates can be sensibly provided due to paucity of data provided, but mined ore output reduced as no space to store anymore. We also know that Plant upgrades progressing to 'plan' to achieve 2koz/month by Dec-22 with good pipeline for expansion drilling due over coming few months to inform Oct-22 updated MRE.
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@trek Yes that does make sense and hopefully a smooth transition of power
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@SW Possibly but as we have seen GCAT have taken on a HUGE undertaking turning around a deeply underinvested asset that was on care-and-maintenance from GoldPlat back in Aug-21. I always think of Donald Rumsfeld quote:

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."

How many "Unknown unknowns" have the management team had to deal with so far? I bet that there has been a few!
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@mickey Same as Kad I use IG index which is accurate, fast and free if you open an account and use it regularly
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