Member Info for aprogerson

Really good to see initial JORC compliant MRE for Olympic project based on spoil heaps only with additional 'Exploration' targets set for pre-mined materials and shallow mineralised area under the spoil heap itself. We also know that GWMO is progressing a JV to setup and build a processing plant for tailings and mined materials currently awaiting licence approval which should not be an issue as site was previously used for processing.

HIGHLIGHTS @Olympic
· Inferred (JORC) Resource Estimate of 31,000 tonnes, grading 1.6 g/t Au and 3.0 g/t Ag in tailings at Olympic Mine.
· Exploration Target of 3,400 - 6,400 tonnes grading between 0.5 and 1.2 g/t Au and 1.2 and 2.1 g/t Ag in the substrate beneath the tailings volume at the Olympic Mine.
· Exploration Target of 9,000 - 12,000 tonnes grading between 0.9 and 2.4 g/t Au and 2.0 and 5.1 g/t Ag in a co**** stockpile at Olympic Mine.

HIGHLIGHTS @Mineral Jackpot
· Exploration Target of 4,200 - 7,700 tonnes grading between 40 and 140 g/t Ag and 0.3 and 0.3 g/t Au in spoil heaps at Mineral Jackpot.

RNS @30-Sept-22 Processing plant JV:
Permitting and processing will be in three phases:
(1) a simple gravity separation plant for early results
(2) a flotation process and
(3) a vat-contained leaching process for ultimate recoveries.

Commentary:
1) Olympic MRE implies an Inferred Resource of circa 31kt tailings ore @1.6 g/t Au & 3.0 g/t Ag for 1,600oz Gold metal and 3,000oz Silver metal assuming 100% recovery
2) Stage 1 processing plant will probably deliver circa 50-55% metal recovery via gravity separation only with 'tailings' being able to be retained pending future plant upgrades if economically viable to do so
> Gold 1.6koz *50% = 800oz ... revenue = 800oz *$1,700 *0.87 = £1,188k
> Silver 3koz *50% = 1,500oz ... revenue = 1,500oz *$21 *0.87 = £27.4k
> total revenue circa £1.2m assuming 50% gravity plant recovery and BEFORE costs
3) addition of Exploration targets at both Olympic and MJ are very encouraging but are not JORC compliant as sufficient samples were not taken to meet this standard ... one for the future

Looking good for a £5.2m MCap junior explorer/developer ... soon to become producer with some nice grades of historic tailings and/or free-digging pre-mined material on surface
ATB APR

Glad the Financials have been issued but a lot to process ... some confirmatory and some new.

Sadly some posters are shamelessly conflating facts with assumptions to suit their agenda and jumping to conclusions on gold production and solvency.
ATB APR

@Optimist Exciting stuff

@Bebeto Point well made, but as Winston Churchill says "Madame you are ugly, but tomorrow I shall be sober" seems rather apt when comparing Cora to GCAT & especially in the context of our current travails.

Irrespective of suspension GCATs MCap of £13m and near-term prospect of raising capital to accelerate 2koz production /month and build a similar sized mine at Nyakafuru, TZ via a non-dilutative debt/stream seems in orderly attractive risk to reward ratio especially as debt can be paid with revenue from gold sales.

If I get any 'niggly doubts' I just think of 2koz/month gold sales at $1,150 AISC using current POG of $1,680 or $530 FCF/oz or $1.06m or £922k/month FCF ... if I have to wait another 3 months to end Q1'22 for mine/plant expansion then so be it! Once funded I would expect Nyakafuru mine build to be max 2 years to first gold pour which should double production but at a much higher POG and FCF
ATB APR

Confirmation of spoil heap and/or pre-mined material processing through our own processing plant JV will signal to the market that GWMO has established a revenue stream which for a small junior explorer such as GWMO will be massive news. Additionally, the JV can also process 3rd party ore, tailings and/or spoil heaps so it can fund itself as a standalone entity and hopefully the JV itself can then turn a profit and provide another revenue stream back to GWMO.

BH strategy is rightly on near-surface gold/silver from historic mining areas using modern technology/techniques to identify which is why OMCO extension is so important as it was historically very high grade, near surface mineralisation so relatively easy/cheap to access and extract especially if using specialist 3rd party operators to do it for you.

Our copper JORC resource is a different issue as it is relatively small resource at depth implying an underground operation to extract which will need roads, camp and possibly a process plant or toll-mill operation setup to benefit from all of which will need to be built and funded before any ore can be mined and sold. We do know that around the current resource are a large number of other copper targets indicated from historic surface sampling and some other limited drilling done 4+ years ago. This seems unlikely to be progressed near term without a JV partner who would take most of the asset given the likely associated cost/risks. If/when copper price recovers this calculation may change so I view it as more like a zero-cost call option on future copper prices.

Lots to look forward to
ATB APR

@Boom Apologies I missed you post to Bebeto so did not include my thoughts on this:
"As for suggins saying not relevant I'm afraid your sorely mistaken a share dilution of such magnitude works the same way as death spiral financing .
Taking many years to clear , I suspect that is why a large seller(s) appear 0.9-1p"

> "death spiral financing" is typically associated with provision of funding via higher risk CLNs which the lender can convert into capital at any time ... as stated GCAT CLN facility was closed in early 2022
> "large seller(s) appear 0.9-1p" ... there were a number of sellers following the RTO not least of which was GoldPlat who sold Kilimapesa with the sole intent of raising capital to fund their business as this asset had been on "Care & maintenance" for many years as was non-core.

You negate to mention that for every seller there is someone willing to purchase the shares and a number of HNW and IIs have now bought into GCAT as shown on page 4 of GCAT Oct-22 presentation with G Connell alone now holding over 10% from scratch. Link to GCAT presentation just in case you missed it https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_OCT-2022.pdf By my calculation top 4 "new" shareholders including most retail investors now own at least 44% of GCAT despite increase in shares in issue to fund mine expansion and Nyakafuru project which I consider to be healthy sign given massive loss of confidence in commodity sector and PMs in particular.

As part of your DD you might also want to consider looking into:
> World Gold Council reporting on Central Bank gold purchases in 10 months to date being higher than any year since 1967 ... only 2 months to go
> COMEX and LBMA gold and silver eligible metal being drained at historically fast rate since Feb-22
> Bullion banks now being net long gold for first time since ... you look it up
> Retail Gold & Silver premiums at record highs since 2008 GFC ... assuming you can actually buy the metal as most are now showing out of stock or orderable if you are lucky ... and quick!
> Why invest in junior explorers, developers and/or producers ... what the difference risks/advantages, how do they fund themselves and why is a low AISC and low 'metal in the ground' acquisition cost for a growing gold producers such as GCAT so important?
ATB APR

@Boom You say you are doing "Due Diligence" but all I can see is you starting hares racing by highlighting "potential issues" without stating what your DD conclusion is so leaving these "issues" hanging to create doubt and steer discussions towards your "issues" raised. If you are truly doing DD as you state then any sensible person would work through their questions and/or ask open questions of a well informed board BEFORE posting in such a manner ... you are clearly an experienced poster with over 12k posts so you should know this which therefore leaves the question as to your real motives in posting such material in such a manner ... I think we know the answer.

1) read the RNSs as £5m CLN was withdrawn earlier this year
2) latest 1.3Moz MRE issued in June was not specifically stated as JORC compliant and revised MRE now outstanding
3) Nayakafuru deal was renegotiated so Nyakafuru Reefs was specifically excluded
4) Tyacks transaction was part of original RTO in Aug-21 and additional shares were issued as part of RTO and LSE listing
5) Transactions to a set £value is standard practice when related to a future event as share prices change over time so this ensures that share beneficiary does not carry risk of SP changes
6) Gordon McCrae is part of the GCAT management team as a Technical Consultant and not a director (which you already know) and the incident you reference is over 15 years old

IMHO you need to get your "facts" straight and particularly your use of the word "dilution" in context of your post is instructive when in reality shares were issued in return for assets which also increased NAV and/or potential future income whilst additional capital raised was used to invest in both plant and mine to increase its capacity as stated in teh relevant RNSs ... of course I fully expect you know this so again I question your motives.
ATB APR

The 'sensible' thing for GCAT to do would be to 'opt' to come out of suspension at the same time as issuing positive news in order to steady the ship as doubtless some investors would have been spooked by suspension. Key news I will be looking out for are in order of positive impact :
> Non-dilutative funding to complete/accelerate KIlimapesa upgrades to 24koz ... or even 48koz production
> Nyakafuru mine build plan & cost PLUS Non-dilutative funding to build 24koz plant & expansion drill programme
> Updated MRE for Kilimapesa regional expansion (batch 3&4) AND confirmation of JORC compliance

IMHO anything else would be a distraction right now and would be viewed as 'diluting' effort and/or management focus on Kilmapesa and Nyakafuru
ATB APR

@Devil So using your NAV numbers but plugging in latest SP=0.375p

Summary
===========================
Total NAV Listed = £2,747,186.16
Total NAV Unlisted = £315,000
Total Cash Held = £625,000 +CLN
Total NAV = £3,798,650.16
449,796,506 Total Shares in Issue

Current NAV = 0.845p/share & SP = 0.375p
Revised trading =SP/NAV = 0.375/0.845 = 44.4% so 55.6% under NAV

That is what I call an absolute bargain effectively pricing large chunks of GUN investments hugely under quoted £value and/or risk assets at or close to zero!
ATB APR

Morning Trek, my 'guess' it also includes management share awards as well as these should also have been called out clearly and separately when published thresholds have been achieved which if done properly should have been a good thing for investors as it clearly signposted progress ... win-win

I have been calling out across Q1/2 the disparity between shares in issue and 'reported' shares which adversely affects published MCap on LSE as I also called out. I raised issue twice with London South East and pointed to note in Feb-22 AGM notes but no action taken. Again not a good look for an entity listed on main exchange especially as very easy to solve by regular RNS stating event, additional shares in issue and total shares in issue
ATB APR

Before we all get bent out of shape the BIGGEST variable that GCAT cannot influence is POG which we all know has been hammered by the paper futures market despite record Central Bank buying ... for clarity CBs have bought the most gold in 2022 in any year since 1962 and we still have 2 months to go. CB purchases of silver have been even larger with both COMEX and LBMA aggressively being drained of available metal! Paper leverage over physically available metal is now at record multiples and retail availability of metal for Joe-public has now (almost) dried up and when available premiums of 50-60% are not unusual .... the current metals prices of gold and silver are NOT sustainable with silver price beginning to turn!

We also know that GCAT gold resource is currently valued at circa $10/oz given our £13m MCap and 1.3Moz MRE ... our last MRE was issued 12-Jul-22 and only included 2 batches focused on infill drilling around Kili to increase resource confidence and deliver a 10-year LoM. From June to Sept GVAT have confirmed a further 9.2km Kili regional expansion drilling at Maghor and Vim Rutha plus further drilling at Nyakafuru at Voyager and Mentelle from Q4'22 to Q1'23. The expected MRE update will increase Kilimapesa resources and was targeted for end Oct-22 issue.

We have seen a number of junior miners struggling due to a lack of cash whilst GCAT is funding expansion from cashflow whilst looking to raise new capital which RM seems to confirm has been agreed albeit pending a formal announcement of £quantity and terms. This is MAJOR news and IMHO predicated on GCATs very low indicated AISC, good track record on delivery and strong management team.

For the record Bebeto you are not the only one unhappy with the situation as I have clearly stated that I am unhappy with the lack of detail in Q3 Ops report, poor details for Plant 3 & 4 plus now seismic shift from Dec-22 to Mar-23 for the 2koz production ... with no clarity as to whether this is capacity or gold production. Let's see what announcements come through once suspension has been lifted shall we?
ATB APR

@Devil Nice, concise summary, but unfortunately for us sentiment is truly awful in commodity and PM space hence circa 50% discount to NAV.

What it does say is if you believe that things will at least return to the mean then GUN is an easy 2x bagger and if PM investment returns from currently less than 1% funds invested to mean of 5-8% then PM investments return will be biblical for PM stocks especially near-term producers currently priced on tiny multiples to metal in question.

IMHO this is now a matter of patience and slow accumulation where not everything will pan out but the other investments will more than make up for it! Rincon Resources is still the 'dark horse' with GUN retaining some 16% after their last A$1.2m capital raise on 13-Sept-22 and appointment David Lenigas to Executive Chairman who knows the Patterson region & players very well.
ATB APR

Great interview and confidently delivered ... my main takeaways were:
> non-dilutative funding announcement soon covering Kili and Nyakafuru raised against future production ... streaming?
> Revised MRE covering Kili and Nyakafuru
> Kili mine & plant upgrades on target for 2koz production end Q1'23 ... was end Dec-22 so 'plan' changed!
> Nyakafuru mine build plan, timescales, production & funding announcement soon
> Audit 'legacy exception' raised Friday pm hence suspension
> New lab critical to growth and production ... just needs to be accredited

This will be interesting to see if what looks like a flurry of very positive announcements will be enough to get SP comfortably over 2.5p warrant strike price to bring in extra circa £7m capital or will they lapse?
ATB APR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBz7QefLX-c

Rincon Resources up 40% over last 3 trading days on news of exploration licences approval at Kiwikirra ahead of drilling campaign around good historical drill results.
ATB APR

LOL Suggins I'd thought about going into a flat-spin all out rant, but stuck with good old understatement!
Credibility is hard won and easily spent, RM needs to get his CFO to do his job ... end of
ATB APR

Robbie this is not a good look ... especially after months of administrative issues around reporting on shares-in-circulation et al that were completely avoidable especially as GCAT are main market and not AIM.

Let's hope the CFO can do his job and deliver a quick turnaround on those accounts whilst the team get back to the mundane stuff like mine and processing plant expansion plus the small matter of that 2koz production target being hit sooner rather than later!

Let's also hope RM can make up for it and get the Q3 Operations report out in 4 weeks rather than the 6/7 weeks last time
ATB APR

I hope Brian is going to wrap up warm as it starts to get rather chilly about this time of year as exploration window closes and not due to reopen until mid Mar-23
ATB APR

@RP Yes there seemed to have been a 'switcheroo' about 2-3 months ago when Plant 1&2 upgrades were brought forward from Q1/2'23 into Q4'22 in parallel with Plant 3&4 followed by 2koz production being pushed back from Dec-22 to Q1'23. I gave up trying to work out what that might all mean when it became obvious things were moving around and quarterly reports had less and less detail in them making it all rather opaque.

Probably my imagination ... but honestly if they hit 1koz by year end and 2koz by end Q1'23 I'll be happy as I am guessing they have now had to discount substantial new capital coming in from warrants currently due to expire in Dec-22.
ATB APR

@Bebeto Agreed that 'Looking Objectively' that dilution also needs to be considered so from Aug-21 launch:
> POG has dropped 9.7% or $177 from $1,825 to $1,648
> MCap has dropped 6.2% from £13m to £12.2m
> SP has dropped 35% from 1p to 0.65p

However at Kilimapesa ....
> JORC up 41% was 501Koz in Aug-21 now 709Koz after Red Ray licence confirmed and Batch 1&2 drilling completed ... expect updated MRE soon with Batch 3&4 results
> LOM at 24koz target production was 1-2years & now 10+ years after infill drill programme and MRE
> open pit & underground stopes/drives expanding to meet target production
> Process Plant 1&2 being upgraded and HL Plants 3&4 under construction
> production was 350-400oz/month now circa 500-600oz/month targeting 2koz/month by end Q1 2023
And overall ...
> Added Tanzanian near term development asset with 659koz JORC ... drilling campaign to start soon
> Combined MRE 1.37Moz up 172% from 501Koz at KIlimapesa only at Aug-21 launch

Capital Funding - lots of talk about non-dilatative funding which implies (1) Streaming agreement for fixed amount of future gold production at fixed price or at discount to market price or (2) Royalty agreement for fixed % of future production which usually includes any additional growth. My preference would be a stream with an upfront delay to give time to get production up to steady state 2koz/month. Alternatively GCAT may seek a loan secured against the $30m capital assets and there are a number of peer group African juniors that have gone down this route.

Ref: Oct-22 presentation https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_OCT-2022.pdf
Not too shabby then, just a shame the SP has dropped but junior gold mining sector has been hit hard
ATB APR