Member Info for aprogerson

@Legalworl Yes our own lab will be crucial to fast turnaround of increased MRE and both KIlimapesa phase 4+ and Nyakafuru phase 2 drilling programmes. We will also need further Infill drill programmes at any site GCAT want to bring into production so that they have higher confidence for their detailed mine planning as they will now be trying to (1) produce more overall ore to feed upgraded & newly constructed Plants plus (2) matching production ore grade to the correct plant so high grade goes to high % recovery plants 1&2 not 3&4.

I am also expecting Vim Rutha to be much higher grade at 5-8g/t than Kilimapesa which is currently 2.5g/t head grade into Plants 1&2 so for the same cost GCAT can 2-3x its output from the same plant which will also have a dramatically positive affect on AISC which in turn will drive FCF up steeply. VM ore can also be directly trucked to Kilimapesa plant which will add some costs but this will be far outweighed by the higher VM high grades possible.

Again, more upside and lower downside risks ... I'm sure that this opportunity has not been lost on GCAT BoD hence pivot to VM on expansion drilling.

Looking back at the Jul-2021 prospectus https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Prospectus-Final-19.07.21.pdf is instructive ... pages 35-38 indicate 12-35g/t historic grades found at VM with Page 35 stating VM a priority 1 target of 50koz at 12g/t. PL189 diagram shows proximity of VM to Kil plant.
Lots to like
ATB APR

@bebeto Sorry, COGS has nothing to do with AISC ... you are comparing apples with racing cars.

I have already accepted "cost of sales" as per the accounts as being very high because every cost will have been in the accounts including costs that are NOT part of AISC such as plant and mine build/upgrade that constitutes more than a 10% increase (see WGC guidance provided) all of which are NOT part of AISC ... these excluded costs will have been the bulk of "cost of sales" as per accounts hence your artificially high AISC.

I am more convinced of RMs $1,100 figure as GCAT are main market LSE listed and FD knows his stuff plus his reputation is on the line. I do however accept that AISC may or may not be $1,100 in due course as there is so much changing BUT we also need to consider that AISC will benefit massively from the target 2koz output from Mar-23 as lots of the fixed operational costs will be amortised over 4x ounces plus circa 1koz of future production will be from HL which has lower OPEX than Plants 1&2 that provide most of current 500oz production.

IMHO AISC will probably 'land' between $950 to $1,150/ounce in mid 2023 once 2koz output has been achieved and various 'moving parts' that make up AISC has settled down as by definition it is a backwards looking metric.
I'm good with that !
ATB APR

@Bebeto GCAT is spending its capital from RTO, Feb-22 capital raise and monthly production building a mine and upgrading the plant which by WGC definition precludes it from AISC hence RM $1,100 figure.

To say this is complicated and not an exact 'science' is a mild understatement when AISC is best used to describe a steady-state producer which GCAT certainly is not. Just taking ALL expenditures in the past income statement against revenues will of course give a highly inflated "cost per ounce" figure which is not the same as an AISC using WGC nomenclature.
ATB APR

@Bebeto AISC = All-In Sustaining Costs and INCLUDES cost of resource replacement to maintain LoM, hence my calculations do not include it. What GCAT choses to do with its clear FCF is then up to GCAT which might be mine/plant expansion and/or another mine or project which if it is growing LoM by more than 10% is excluded from AISC as it is expansion project ... the list goes on.

If you are feeling really Nerdy then you'll doubtless want to check World Gold Council website for all the definitions including difference between AIC and AISC, what can be included/exclude and so on ... https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/responsible-gold/all-in-costs,
Enjoy
ATB APR

@Headancer We do know that GCAT have been funding everything from Free Cash Flow (FCF) as they did/could not realise the £7m from the warrants at 2.5p strike price as POG has been suppressed despite their advances with plant/mine et al.

What we do know:
> AISC stated at circa $1,100/ounce at current production rate
> Current gold production = 500oz/month mostly from plants 1, 2&3 as plant 4 is still being built
> Plant 1&2 = 500tpd/10ktpm throughput or circa 1koz/month ... plant upgrades will double this to 1000tpd/2koz/month
> Plant 3&4 = 155kt capacity or 52ktpm using a 3-month heap leach cook cycle for up to 1.5koz/month gold output
> GCAT targeting 2koz/month gold output COMMISSIONED by end Mar-2023

Running some numbers at stable assumed POG=$1,750 & USD=£0.80 & GCAT MCap=£14m

Current Revenue, Costs & Profit @500oz/month output:
> Current AISC stated = $1,100/oz gold produced at 500oz/month
> Current AISC costs = $1,100/oz x $500oz = $550k or £440k/month
> Current Revenue = $1750 x 500oz = $875k or £700k/month
So Current FCF = £700k - £440k = £260k/month or £3.12m/annum so P/E ratio = 4.5

Target Revenue, Costs & Profit @2koz/month output: No AISC savings !!
> Target AISC likely less = $1,100/oz gold produced at 2koz/month
> Target AISC costs = $1,100/oz x $2koz = $2,200k or £1,760k/month
> Target Revenue = $1750 x 2koz = $3,500k or £2,800k/month
So Target FCF = £2,800k - £1,760k = £1,040k/month or £12.48m/annum so P/E ratio = 1.12 or x4 current

Target Revenue, Costs & Profit @2koz/month output: Assumed $150 saving per ounce due to scaling/efficiency
> Target AISC likely less = $950/oz gold produced at 2koz/month
> Target AISC costs = $950/oz x $2koz = $1,900k or £1,520k/month
> Target Revenue = $1750 x 2koz = $3,500k or £2,800k/month
So Target FCF = £2,800k - £1,520k = £1,280k/month or £15.36m/annum so P/E ratio = 0.91 or x5 current

Commentary:
AISC: GCAT has low AISC which is more likely to drop than rise due to scaling as gold production goes up as some costs are fixed and others are non-linear

POG: gold is currently $1,800 and Central Banks have bought most gold since 1967 using the figures that we know about which exclude domestic production and gold held by arms-length government owned bodies. POG is also held down by significant multiples of paper gold, leasing, fractional or re-hypothicated gold et al all of which obfusticate true price discovery. As metals held by major exchanges continue to precipitously drop then all of the paper leverage increases and becomes increasingly unsustainable as current gold prices

FCF: Is driven by gold production, POG and AISC. We know production will x4 over the next 3-4 months, POG is likely to rise over the next 3-12 months and AISC will drop as economies of scale kick in all of which drive FCF up in a non-linear manner.

Food for thought
ATB APR

@Zan Check my posting history in last 48 hours for Production Capacity, throughput, reported ore grades and % recovery figures to date.

IMHO the bottom line is everything stated to date for Plants 1>4 gives 3koz/month so I believe they are being very conservative with their figures for 2koz/month target end MAr-23 ... this makes me very comfortable with my investment especially as the OCIM funding now replaces the circa £7m capital injection they were hoping for from the warrants now due to expire end Dec-22 at 2.5p.
ATB APR

Rincon is looking good with strong cash holding following cash raise +additional Patterson land holdings +updated modelling of historical data supplemented by new VTEM surveys data = new targets
Will be good when drilling can recommence in early 2023 once summer heat has abated
ATB APR

Thought this might be a useful reminder why we are all here ...

Background:
> Experienced BoD led by Robbie McCrae and ex Kenyan mining minister on BoD ... mgt heavily invested
> Latest RM video https://youtu.be/3ylJ3BcHwMQ
> GCAT Oct-22 presentation https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_OCT-2022.pdf
> GCAT runs operating Kilimapesa, Kenyan gold mine with strong BoD, 10-year LoM, 700koz JORC resource, producing circa 500oz/month with wide-ranging plant, mine and operational upgrades keeping current production modest BUT will deliver stated 2koz/month by end Mar-23
> GCAT has Nyakafuru, Tanzania development project with 600koz JORC resource, phase 1 confirmation/infill drilling completed, phase 2 expansion drilling planned and targets mine build of 4koz/month

Kilimapesa Plant summary & Status: flow diagrams in Oct-22 presentation
> Plant 1 = traditional 10ktpm crush, grind, CIL @10ktpm & 80% efficiency ... planned upgrade to 20ktpm
> Plant 2 = traditional 10ktpm CIL Tailing treatment plant & 50% efficiency ... upgrade to 20ktpm now WIP
> Plant 3 = small Heap Leach @3x 15kt pads & ~50% efficiency ... commissioned and in production
> Plant 4 = commercial HL @2x 60kt pads & ~50% efficiency ... construction underway (see Oct-22 presentation photos)
Note 1: Plant 1&2 work in combination to process high grade ore @91%+ efficiency, but higher OPEX
Note 2: Plant 3&4 separate pads processing low grade ore @50-60% efficiency, but low OPEX

Economics:
> cash/loan facility from OCIM = £8.2m in 2 tranches against 15% future production & sold at discount to spot
> 500oz/month current production at circa $1,100 stated AISC
> target 2koz/month production by end Mar-23, so if costs similar then AISC will drop
> RM confirmed OCIM interested in future deals and 85% of production 'unencumbered'

Latest News:
> OCIM funding of $10.5m (£8.2m) confirmed RNS @29-Nov as stream on 15% gold production at small discount to spot
>> Tranche# 1 = complete Kilimapesa upgrades to 2koz/month gold end Mar-23 = what we are here for
>> Tranche #2 = fund Phase 2 expansion drilling at Nyakafuru project = will inform DFS & future 50koz/annum mine
> Prior mine owner GoldPlat sold down shares to reinvest, confirmed TR1 RNS @2-Dec = biggest seller gone!
> Over 60% shares tightly held by management, HNWs, family offices and IIs = sticky hands
> Confirmed MRE @1.3Moz JORC across 2 projects

Imminent Newsflow:
> Q3 Operations report to end Sept-22 ... now overdue to include plant status & upgrade timelines
> Updated MRE due end Oct-22 to include ...
>> Phase 3&4 expansion drilling results around KIlimapesa mine
>> Phase 1 confirmation/infill drill results at Nayakafuru project

Newsflow pipeline:
> Nayakafuru Reefs project status ... was cut from Dec-21 deal & if added brings 400koz JORC resources
> Nyakafuru mine build ... costs & plan were available Jul-22 so wait for DFS or sooner?
ATB APR

GoldPlat has now sold down balance of its holdings from original RTO Aug-21 when it was prior owner of assets so got shares in return for the assets which is why it was not price sensitive and it just needed its capital out hence continuing the sell side pressure ... this is now done and anyone wanting to buy shares will need to buy them off someone else who IS price sensitive so (not guaranteed) but likely SP direction is now up as market goes through REAL price discovery without a big seller.

Recent non-dilutative Capital raising of $10.5m (£8.2m) is a gamechanger and not to be underestimated given GCATs very low £14m MCap as it enables:
> completion of process plant/mine upgardes to support 2koz/month gold production by end Mar-23
> completion of Phase 2 expansion drill project at new Nyakafuru, Tanzanian project

When newsflow returns and progress confirmations of above come through this should drive a further SP rerate as £14m MCap with £8.2m cash drawdown facility and 2koz/month gold production at circa $1,100 AISC is truly crazy especially as it is secured on only 15% of future production at small discount to spot.
ATB APR

Might be my imagination but the 0.875 and 0.675 levels look significant as the price keeps bouncing between these levels since May-22. I'm hoping that having broken 0.675 as resistance price has come back to confirm it as support going forward
ATB APR

@Clifford Just for you ... reposted from yesterday as I think your calculator is broken and you can't find your glasses to read the RNSs properly for gold output or indeed plant upgrade progress! Please read Oct-22 presentation if you are still confused https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_OCT-2022.pdf
-----
Digested figures since GCAT RTO in Aug-21

Gold production figures from Plant 1&2 only ... See Quarterly Ops report RNSs:
> Q3'21 = 1,555oz
> Q4,21 = 2,088oz
> Q1'22 = 1,266oz ... Pilot 15kt HL plant 3 commissioned
> Q2'22 = 746oz ... Plant 3 expansion to 3x 15kt pads underway & commercial 2x 60kt HL Plant 4 announced
> Q3'22 = ???oz ... Plant 2 Tailings upgrading & offline, Plant 3 completed and Plant 4 WIP

Base Monthly Production Capacity ... using original Plant 1&2 capacity, Q1/2 grades and %recoveries:
Plant 1 & 2 = 10kt *2.5g/t *91%/31.1 = 732oz ... 500tpd mill over 20 days= 10kt @Q1 @80% CIL & 50% Tailings recovery
Plant 3 HL = 35kt *1.72g/t *53%/31.1 = 342oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
Plant 4 HL = 120kt/3 *1.72g/t *53%/31.1 = 1,172oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
Summary = 2,246oz/month using non-upgraded plant capacity & %recovery data

Base case assumptions:
> Ore grades from Q1/2 Operations reports
> Plant 1&2 = original 500tpd mill & combined throughput so 91% recovery
> Plant 3&4 = 3-month Heap Leach 'cook cycle' for throughput BUT only 53% Q2 reported pilot plant %recovery

Expected Better Case Production:
Plant 1 & 2 = 20kt *2.5g/t *91%/31.1 = 1,464oz ... 2x500tpd mill over 20 days= 20kt & no %recovery improvement!
Plant 3 HL = 35kt *1.72g/t *60%/31.1 = 387oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & improved 60% recovery
Plant 4 HL = 120kt/3 *1.72g/t *60%/31.1 = 1,327oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & improved 60% recovery
Summary = 3,178oz/month using upgraded plant 1&2 capacity & improved HL %recoveries as 3-month cook cycle

Commentary:
IMHO Oct-22 presentation is based on Q1/2 Operations grades, plant throughput, pilot HL plant %recoveries and original Plant 1&2 capacities so is uber conservative and still gives 2,246oz/month or a 12% margin of error for GCAT to hit their 2koz production target! I am expecting Plant 1 upgrading of additional CIL tanks and another 500tpd mill to double throughput when completed in Q1/2'23 at same or improved %recoveries.

Given that capital funding has now been secured and plant upgrades are now well underway AND fully funded then my 'Expected' case production of 3,178oz/month is not unreasonable implying a 60% throughput uplift for the same capital spend. It also introduces ability to still hit 2koz/month throughput and to:
> process considerably higher amounts of lower grade ore via HL
> increase HL throughput by reducing HL cook cycle but at reduced %recoveries

Food indeed for thought as I am now expecting GCAT to under-promise and ove

@LegalWolf I strongly suspect 'Further Funding' mentioned will be for one or more likely both of:
> Nyakafuru DFS based on Phase 2 drilling programme ... so likely Q2/3'23 by my best guess
> Nyakafuru Reefs which was part of original Dec-21 deal but was later dropped ... this has a 400koz JORC attached!

...of course once Phase 2 drilling programme is complete, they can move to DFS then to mine build/plan so
> Nyakafuru mine development based on above DFS ... expecting to see targeting 48koz/annum in scale

Just my idle musings
ATB APR

Resistance band now at 0.85/0.875p then have a free run up to 0.95/1.025p
... with main seller gone pressure will be up
ATB APR

Stockbox Interview from yesterday https://youtu.be/3ylJ3BcHwMQ
> OCIM met in May-22 so 6 months process & Due Diligence completed
> OCIM liked LSE listed + growing gold producer +strong BoD +LBMA registered
> £8.2m Non-dilutative funding raised vs. £14m MCap

The 'Deal' ...
> secured conditional non-dilutive financing of up to US$10.5m (£8.2m) in 2 tranches
> pre-paid gold purchase agreement with OCIM Metals & Mining SA ('OCIM')
> RM confirmed less than 15% of gold production to be sold at spot minus small financing discount
> Tranche #1 = US$7m to be drawn on or before 31 December 2022
> Tranche #2= US$3.5m to be drawn down on terms yet to be agreed

RM stated new capital to be deployed for fully funding ...
> expansion Kilimapesa expansion to target 24koz pa & final commissioning in Mar-23
> completion Phase 2 exploration drill programme at Nyakafuru Project in TZ

Expected Newsflow
> Q3 Operations report to end Sept-22 ... RM apologised for delay
> Updated MRE for Kilimapesa ... delayed from end Oct-22, but RM said results were really good
> Nyakafuru Phase 1 drill results due ... RM stated confirmed prior JORC and will include Phase 2 programme plan
> More financing news due (not sure for what?) & RM stated desire to do more deals with OCIM as really liked their approach and business model

Comparables
RM stated nearest comparable to GCAT was TRX in Tanzania in terms of size, a producer scaling up, geology, strong BoD and funded for growth
> TRX 1koz/month vs. GCAT 2koz/month
> TRX CAD $10.5m (£6.5m) vs GCAT £8.2m cash/facility
> TRX CAD$120m (£75m) MCap vs GCAT £14m MCap
> Comparable resources
> TRX based in Tanzania and GCAT in Kenya/Tanzania

Lots to like, especially as RM wants to avoid dilution of his and shareholder value plus he believes GCAT now massively undervalued given funding confirmation and derisking.
ATB APR

Looks like they are out ... TR1 soon

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
29-Nov-22 09:16:42 0.661 59,835,953 Unknown* 0.75 0.80 395.52k
29-Nov-22 15:40:42 0.76 5,000,000 Unknown* 0.75 0.80 38.00k

@Magmanus GoldPlat have been the consistent seller since RTO in Aug-2021 as the asset was previously theirs which they divested as it was a non-core asset on care & Maintenace before teh current management team effectively bought them out. In essence GoldPlat needs the cash so has been steadily selling down its shares and as they were 'free' shares is not that price sensitive as it just wants the cash ... irritating but it is what it is and on the plus side allows us PIs to accumulate on the cheap as have been stuck in this 0.675 to 0.875 range since Jun-22
ATB APR

Looks like support now at 0.675p and next resistance at 0.875p but still in sideways consolidation zone that GoldPlat has been selling into. High volumes now going through should help shift it and clear them out quicker
ATB APR

Yes GGP was an interesting journey too for me from 2.1p up to 23p when I offloaded as it was getting very frothy and irrational. We do need to remember than GGP had two not one Major as potential suitors which was driven by the (in)famous drill results from HAD 006 in Feb-19 of 367.1m at 1.15g/t gold, 0.44% copper and 176ppm cobalt from 471m.

IMHO drawing comparisons between GGP and GCAT is all very interesting BUT the mineralisation is totally different HOWEVER GCAT does have some real aces up its sleeve which GGP did not namely:
> GCAT is a gold producer so has revenue and a modest $1,150 AISC ... circa 500oz/month & planned 2koz Mar-23
>> $30m plus traditional 500tpd mill/CIL plant and matching tailings facility @91% combined recovery = high grade ore
>> Small scale 35kt capacity Heap Leach plant 3 now operational @53% recovery = low grade ore
>> Large scale 120kt capacity Heap Leach Plant 4 under construction @53% recovery = low grade ore
>> 10-year LoM at 24koz @Kilimapesa from updated MRE @Jun-22 RNS
>> Large scale expansion drill programme underway since Jul-22 ... awaiting updated MRE now overdue
>> history of Colonial area mining and recent artisanal mining indicating high grades at or near surface

IMHO updated Kilimapesa MRE will be the 2nd game changer as it is nearby existing infrastructure & operating mine PLUS it is near surface and indications of high grade & long strike lengths yet to be proven up and no idea of depth of mineralisation (yet).

Now the £8.2m non-dilutative funding has been confirmed and given BoDs strong delivery record to date I don't see a lot of downside at £14m MCap; this is more or less where it was when GCAT launched last August but with an additional £7m already invested from RTO plus another £5.8m new upfront capital injection to deploy now.
ATB APR

Digested figures since GCAT RTO in Aug-21

Gold production figures from Plant 1&2 only ... See Quarterly Ops report RNSs:
> Q3'21 = 1,555oz
> Q4,21 = 2,088oz
> Q1'22 = 1,266oz ... Pilot 15kt HL plant 3 commissioned
> Q2'22 = 746oz ... Plant 3 expansion to 3x 15kt pads underway & commercial 2x 60kt HL Plant 4 announced
> Q3'22 = ???oz ... Plant 2 Tailings upgrading & offline, Plant 3 completed and Plant 4 WIP

Base Monthly Production Capacity ... using original Plant 1&2 capacity, Q1/2 grades and %recoveries:
Plant 1 & 2 = 10kt *2.5g/t *91%/31.1 = 732oz ... 500tpd mill over 20 days= 10kt @Q1 @80% CIL & 50% Tailings recovery
Plant 3 HL = 35kt *1.72g/t *53%/31.1 = 342oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
Plant 4 HL = 120kt/3 *1.72g/t *53%/31.1 = 1,172oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
Summary = 2,246oz/month using non-upgraded plant capacity & %recovery data

Base case assumptions:
> Ore grades from Q1/2 Operations reports
> Plant 1&2 = original 500tpd mill & combined throughput so 91% recovery
> Plant 3&4 = 3-month Heap Leach 'cook cycle' for throughput BUT only 53% Q2 reported pilot plant %recovery

Expected Better Case Production:
Plant 1 & 2 = 20kt *2.5g/t *91%/31.1 = 1,464oz ... 2x500tpd mill over 20 days= 20kt & no %recovery improvement!
Plant 3 HL = 35kt *1.72g/t *60%/31.1 = 387oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & improved 60% recovery
Plant 4 HL = 120kt/3 *1.72g/t *60%/31.1 = 1,327oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & improved 60% recovery
Summary = 3,178oz/month using upgraded plant 1&2 capacity & improved HL %recoveries as 3-month cook cycle

Commentary:
IMHO Oct-22 presentation is based on Q1/2 Operations grades, plant throughput, pilot HL plant %recoveries and original Plant 1&2 capacities so is uber conservative and still gives 2,246oz/month or a 12% margin of error for GCAT to hit their 2koz production target! I am expecting Plant 1 upgrading of additional CIL tanks and another 500tpd mill to double throughput when completed in Q1/2'23 at same or improved %recoveries.

Given that capital funding has now been secured and plant upgrades are now well underway AND fully funded then my 'Expected' case production of 3,178oz/month is not unreasonable implying a 60% throughput uplift for the same capital spend. It also introduces ability to still hit 2koz/month throughput and to:
> process considerably higher amounts of lower grade ore via HL
> increase HL throughput by reducing HL cook cycle but at reduced %recoveries

Food indeed for thought as I am now expecting GCAT to under-promise and over-deliver!
ATB APR

Now the financing has been confirmed this should pave the wave for a number of expected news flow items:
> Q3 Operations Report to end Sept-22 ... now overdue
> Updated JORC compliant MRE for Kilimapesa expansion drill programme ... all new resources at expected high grades from old mines and/or artisanal workings over multi-kilometre strike lengths
> Nyakafuru drill programme Phase 1 results given Phase 2 is now funded
> Possible Nyakafuru Reefs project purchase ... delayed and adds 400koz JORC resources

GCAT have been expansion drilling around Kilimapesa since Jul-22 but no detailed results from Vim Rutha and IMHO prior interim MRE was NOT stated as JORC compliant as it would have triggered a payment under original RTO deal; funding now solves that issue so MRE will land soon.
ATB APR