Member Info for aprogerson

@ID78 Lifted from my 30-Nov-22 post ....
Digested figures since GCAT RTO in Aug-21

Gold production figures from Plant 1&2 only ... See Quarterly Ops report RNSs:
> Q3'21 = 1,555oz
> Q4,21 = 2,088oz
> Q1'22 = 1,266oz ... Pilot 15kt HL plant 3 commissioned
> Q2'22 = 746oz ... Plant 3 expansion to 3x 15kt pads underway & commercial 2x 60kt HL Plant 4 announced
> Q3'22 = ???oz ... Plant 2 Tailings upgrading & offline, Plant 3 completed and Plant 4 WIP

Base Monthly Production Capacity ... using original Plant 1&2 capacity, Q1/2 grades and %recoveries:
Plant 1 & 2 = 10kt *2.5g/t *91%/31.1 = 732oz ... 500tpd mill over 20 days= 10kt @Q1 @80% CIL & 50% Tailings recovery
Plant 3 HL = 35kt *1.72g/t *53%/31.1 = 342oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
Plant 4 HL = 120kt/3 *1.72g/t *53%/31.1 = 1,172oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
Summary = 2,246oz/month using non-upgraded plant capacity & %recovery data

Base case assumptions:
> Ore grades from Q1/2'22 Operations reports
> Plant 1&2 = original 500tpd mill & combined throughput so 91% recovery
> Plant 3&4 = 3-month Heap Leach 'cook cycle' for throughput BUT only 53% Q2 reported pilot plant %recovery

So looking at above from my 30-Nov-22 post (with refs so you can see where info came from)
1) Average gold production Q3,21 to Q2'22 = 471oz/month
2) Base production capacity Plant 1+2 = 732oz/month ... assumes 500tpd mill and no upgrades completed
3) Base production capacity Plant 3 = 342oz ... assuming 3 month cook cycle & Q2 @53% pilot plant recovery
4) Sum base production Plant 1, 2 & 3 = 1,074oz/month minimum without further investment

I hope that helps and of course Plant 3 could be run on "quicker" monthly cook cycle at 53% "pilot plant" efficiency but much 2-3x higher overall gold output if they REALLY need to generate more cash quickly and mine output can cope of course.
ATB APR

@Splatted Exactly, my point is regardless of the detail they can easily just fall back to no risk position of producing 1,000 to 1,100oz /month gold from Plants 1, 2 and 3 which is at least 2x times what they produced pre RTO when MCap was higher.

Meanwhile Plant 1 & 2 upgrades could just be put on hold and plant 4 HL build would just stop until additional funding becomes available. Not ideal but not end-of-world scenario
ATB APR

GCAT RTO'd Aug-21 at MCAP = £13m and at Jan-23 MCap = £11m
> production ... Aug-21 = circa 300oz/month & Aug-21 to Jun-22 = average 470oz/month so 50% more
> Plant 1 & 2 ... base capacity circa 1koz/month @92% recovery ... not sure status of upgrades
> Plant 3 Heap Leach = operational Jun-22 @35kt capacity & circa 50% recovery
> Plant 4 Heap Leach = under construction = @120kt capacity & circa 50% recovery

Yes Q3 Operational update would give us a clearer view BUT GCAT could simply run Plant 1, 2 and 3 to produce circa 1koz/month until funding is sorted out and at AISC $1,100 with POG $1,850 that would produce $750k or £625k/month free cashflow AFTER All In Sustaining Costs (AISC)

This scenario is not ideal but certainly NOT catastrophic as some would have you believe. GCAT is a HYBRID Producer/Developer/Explorer which is unusual but means it has options and choices unavailable to straight Developer/Explorers who by definition have no revenue let alone free cashflow.

It is darkest before the dawn!
ATB APR

IMHO RM needs to steady the ship whilst OCIMs $10.5m funding is replaced ...

Operational newsflow ... just "get on with it" and "drumbeat" stuff !
> Q3 Operations report (end Sept-22) ... now WAY overdue, just get this issued and be done!
> MRE update (due end Oct-22) ... again loads of drilling and results just get it done!
> No news on mine or plant upgrades and progress for 6 months is a pretty shocking place to be

Funding Newsflow .... this will take some time and we have options so just outline them

Kilimapesa mine/plant upgrades ... update on progress and outline plan given S3m secured funding

This should not be brain surgery and will help investor confidence
ATB APR

@Trek Nicely put and agreed on all points ... rereading the RNS it looks like GCAT team tried but failed to get the deal over line and it was not for lack of trying however the RNS comment "We would like to thank OCIM for considering Caracal and Kilimapesa and wish them all the best on future ventures." says that the OCIM deal is not recoverable,

On the plus side "With funding secured from Philoro Global Trading AG and other proposals received for similar non-dilutive financing, we will move quickly to replace the OCIM funds." says that $3m funding IS secure and now the focus will be on securing the balance to complete the mine upgrades BUT this will obviously take time as in months not days.

Meanwhile GCAT need to work out HOW $3m new capital can best be utilised to FOCUS on more steady & likely self-funded organic production growth in the meantime. IMHO a root-and-branch refocus/replan is needed ASAP as the goal is still achievable but what has changed is the route & timing.
ATB APR

@AimOTG Agreed missing key information like Q3 Operations reports (to end Sept-22) is not a good look and no comms or acknowledgement given so I just don't know why.

GCAT is a small producer/developer so ALL comms threads need to be maintained if RM wants to maintain his credibility. No excuses ... Overdue Comms need to be acknowledged, a timeline of when we can expect it given so this can be fixed ASAP
ATB APR

I think we all agree that:
1) OCIM backing out of deal is not great news & GCAT team must be gutted as are PIs
2) GCAT are NOT bust and are a going concern producing ~500oz/month gold as of Q2 Operations report
3) RM needs to significantly improve Comms quality & timing as key newsflow is now MIA
> Q3 Operations report ... due mid Nov-22
> Updated MRE ... promised end Oct-22
4) Clarity on shares in Issue and LSE Admin stuff

This debacle harms RM credibility so he needs to own it and fix it PDQ ... more open Comms, fixing basic LSE Admin stuff and delivering on promises made are key basics
ATB APR

A very Happy New Year RNS from Brian gives us PIs lots to look forward to ... key takeaways for me are:
> Processing JV = permits Q1'23 then commissioned in H1'23 and producing in H2'23 ... gravity separation first circa 50% recoveries to fund future Heap Leach facility
> Drill programme = 3 phases across all claims
> COPPER = yes it is back on with desktop work already underway to encourage farm-in JV partner
> M2/M4 & Huntoon Valley IP surveys & drilling looking to "join up" target resources to show continuity
> potential Rare Earth (REE) resources from prior copper drill cores
ATB APR

Morning Trek ... cannot open link ?!
ATB APR

Evening Clifford ... I see you are up to your old tricks with a new account & spreading discontent using yet another assertion but this time "that a funding drawdown RNS confirmation is required to avert a disaster" and getting everyone riled about what might happen if it doesn't land.

So Robbie and team spends 6 months completing DD & a Scoping Study to get £11m funding lined up. then goes on holiday and then forgets to drawdown the first tranche ... really?
ATB APR

GCAT stats for gold ounces in the ground ...
MCap = £15.03m
@MRE (Now) = 1.3Moz so £11.56/oz or $13.9/oz ... MRE from Jun-22
@MRE (Q1'2023) = 2Moz so £7.6/oz or $9/oz ... expected MRE from drilling since Jun-22
@MRE (Q2/3'2023) = 3Moz so £5/oz or $6/oz ... GCAT target resources from TZ and Kenya

Dress it up how you like, but those are the effective values of current and expected gold in the ground that GCAT can convert into gold at POG given AISC around $1,100/oz or FCF/ounce of circa $650/700

IMHO this is NOT something that RM should be looking to sell "cheap" just because he can and why would they JV and give % of assets away when they can raise funds via non-dilutative gold backed sales? Down-side risks are now reducing fast and upside is looking compelling at £15m MCap
ATB APR

@headdancer Personally I would want RB to AVOID any JV or sale until 50Koz+ production has been achieved and decent shareholder value has been created AND priced in ... anything else and someone else gets the benefit not us PIs
ATB APR

Simply I think the market ...
> Reacted very positively to 2x funding news confirmation & went 0,725p > 1p then formed a bull flag (good)
> Reacted very badly to the additional 3-month delay to start of 2koz/month moving from Mar to Jul-23 & went 0.95p to 0.75p forming a bearish megaphone (not so good)

Those who traded the rise and fall probably did well but you need strong cajones to get the timing right or risk being bounced out!
For those non-traders then 0.725p looks like strong support and buy-zone as the SP hopefully consolidates between 0.725 and 0.875p.
ATB APR

@ID78 I'm probably seriously out of date on GGP anyway so before someone bites my head off checking with their Sept-22 presentation ...
GGP are very low AISC =$643 and MCap = £398m with total 6.9Moz resources of which 30% or 2.8Moz is attributable to GGP as it has also had to stump up $98m for its share of CAPEX with no revenues so has had to take on lots of debt for the 30% share of the up-front CAPEX.

Yep scary but chalk and cheese as GGP has 2x GCATs 1.3Moz resource and 35% lower AISC !
ATB APR

I can see my way to £100-120m on the back of both Kilimapesa & Nyakafuru @40koz/annum each for 80koz/annum overall at modelled $1,650 POG & $1,100 AISC ... but then the possibilities play out when current £16m MCap

Current Situation
Kilimapesa produces 500oz/month or 6koz/annum with $1,100 AISC & POG=$1,750 so
MCap=£16m and £2.75m FCF/annum giving P/E ratio =5.8 as some growth priced in already!

Assuming Scoping study metrics of POG =$1,650 & AISC =$1,100 plus drop P/E to 4 as transition to producer
> kilimapesa @24koz/annum = £11m FCF/annum so implies MCap £44m @P/E=4 or 2.8x from here

However we do know Scoping study %recoveries are conservative so AISC will drop as less ore will need to be mined & processed to give the same 2koz/month gold output ... lets assume conservative 11% cost saving (HL =22.2% and Plant 1&2 =0% with 50% of gold output) which itself is still conservative!

1) Assuming POG =$1,650 as modelled & AISC =$980 (or 11% costs savings)
> kilimapesa @24koz/annum = £13.4m FCF/annum so implies MCap £53.6m @P/E=4 or 3.35x from here

2) Assuming POG =$1,800 (current PX) & AISC =$980 (or 10% costs savings)
> kilimapesa @24koz/annum = £16.4m FCF/annum so implies MCap £65.6m @P/E=4 or 4.1x from here

3) Assuming POG =$2,050 (all time high) & AISC =$980 (or 10% costs savings)
> kilimapesa @24koz/annum = £19m FCF/annum so implies MCap £76m @P/E=4 or 4.75x from here

3) Assuming POG =$2,300 (Consensus 2023) & AISC =$980 (or 10% costs savings)
> kilimapesa @24koz/annum = £26.4m FCF/annum so implies MCap £105.6m @P/E=4 or 6.6x from here

So to 40-bag implies MCap £640m from current £16m MCap so ...
for Kilimapesa only @Jun-2023 target 24koz/annum output
@24koz\annum & $980 AISC plus P/E ratio of 4 would need £160m FCF or POG = $8,980
@24koz\annum & $980 AISC plus P/E ratio of 8 would need £80m FCF or POG = $4,980
@24koz\annum & $980 AISC plus P/E ratio of 12 would need £53.3m FCF or POG = $3,645

for Kilimapesa & Nyakafuru @Dec-2024 target 48koz/annum output @Nyakafuru and 18 month build
@72koz/annum & $980 AISC plus P/E ratio of 4 would need £160m FCF or POG = $3,650
@72koz/annum & $980 AISC plus P/E ratio of 12 would need £53.3m FCF or POG = $1,710

For reference GGP has circa £398m MCap, no revenue, lower forcast AISC, lots of debts & lots of drilling costs plus 30% of 3.5Moz JORC or 1Moz attributable resources ... poor comparison I know!
ATB APR

@ID78 I can see where you are going with the extra 10% on recoveries ... but in reality a 10% uplift on recovery from 45% to 55% via Heap Leach is 10/45 =22.2% more gold and not 10% more

... IMHO the internal Scoping Study NPV and FCF is massively understated as it was used to secure the funding so need to work even if the "wheels fell off" plant %recoveries AND POG !
ATB APR

Excellent interview thanks 'Santa' McCrae and yes I think you and your team pulled an absolute blinder turning around and confirming £11m non-dilutative funding in less than 6 months for a £13m MCap Junior gold producer.

Not too bothered about the 3 to 6 month mine/plant upgrade >commission >production delays given the 2.5p warrants were not going to be bringing in the capital so having AND delivering the Plan B was very welcome especially as you only make a loss if you sell and I have been buying
ATB APR

On the weekly chart GCAT has exhibited 3 very clear trading ranges since Nov-21 which is 13 months, BUT has been very volatile within each extended range as follows:
Range #1 = 0.625p and 0.875p from w/c 9-May-22 to date or 31 weeks ... intra-week down to 0.575p low Nov-22
Range #2 = 0.875p to 1.025p from w/c 7-Mar-22 to 9-May-22 or 9 weeks
Range #3 = 1.025p to 1.375p from w/c 17-Nov-21 to 7-Mar-22 or 17weeks

IMHO we are now significantly derisked and the price has moved from Range #1 back up to Range #2 and is looking to stabilise but needs to retest 0.875p before it can be categorically confirmed as support.

The other way of looking at this is following the MCap which launched at £13m in Aug-21 and has traded £12-£14m for the same period. MCap has now moved up to £16m @0.875p to reflect the derisking that the confirmed funding brings and IMHO will incrementally rise as upgrading and increased production news confirming that the funds have been spent ADDING VALUE.

Taking my "rose-tinted" goggles off and stepping back a bit IMHO GCAT is demonstrably a well funded Developer, Explorer AND Producer with:
> Strong, experienced & well connected BoD with capable management team delivering +ve change on/in the ground
> Low risk of shareholder dilution as Robbie, CEO is 5% shareholder
> High probability of MRE being increased from 1.3Moz to 2Moz & LoM from 10 to 15-20 years in next 1-3 months
> High probability of increasing production from average of 490oz/month over last 12 months to over 2koz/month in the next 6-9 months
> High probability that Kilimapesa production will be leveraged to secure further non-dilutative capital funding via OCIM/Philoro for Nyakafuru 50koz/annum mine build

This is not to say that stuff won't go wrong as this is still high risk BUT now much lower downside risk AND path to lots of upside especially with low Scoping Study AISC of $1,095 & decent IRR of 114% with 2-year payback. This is an enviable position for a Junior Goldie to be in as it generates REVENUE & has access to £11m cash facilities to be paid back via its gold production which it needs to sell so why not to OCIM/Philoro at a modest discount to spot?! ... it also probably explains why I am heavily invested!
DYOR ATB APR

@Spallted well if RM is alone in the office he can just press SEND on the overdue Q3 Operations report to end Sept-22 so we can all have some light holiday reading and he can go off for Xmas with a clear desk !
ATB APR

@DSFlat Thanks for your honesty ... never easy on these BBs sometimes
ATB APR