Member Info for aprogerson

@ID78 The 93% recovery figure is what Plant 1 and 2 combined can achieve and what the upgraded Plant 1 is expected to deliver according to teh presentation.

Alternatively any decent grade ore can be put through Plant 1 (72% recovery) and then put through HL with 53% recovery ...... so
Plant 1 Mill & CIL = 72% recovery
Plant 3 HL = 53% recovery
Overall recovery = (100% gold in ore) *72% + (28% gold in ore) *53% = 87.5%

I hope that helps
ATB APR

@ID78 Going back through the figures Plant 2 Tailings had an approx 50% recovery on the partly depleted ore coming out of plant 1 AFTER 72% of the gold had been recovered taking overall recovery from 72% to 93% using CIL process. When GCAT was floated only Plant 1&2 existed so using Plant 2 made sense. Now GCAT has Plant 3 HL with similar 50% recovery but at lower OPEX hence why Plant 2 is now uneconomic.

What I am not clear about is how adding more CIL capacity to Plant 1 is any different to using Plant 2 as stated target is much the same recovery as using Plant 2 which already exists and is operational ... clearly missing some nuance!
ATB APR

@predator/SOAG Same predicament being "stuck" underwater and very much wanting to average down BUT knowing that "some" dilution is baked in to settle the outstanding & indeed overdue CLNs. There seems to be no "right" answer given what we know, suspect or can reasonably infer at this point in time.

IMHO this is what I think I know:
> Expansion plan in presentation broadly as expected except fate of Plant 2 unclear and HL usage vs capacity unclear
> Priority1 Exploration set to target 2Moz resources across Kilimapesa and VR but timing unclear
> still targeting Nyakafuru deal completion and continue to bring project forward to add 50koz future production
> CLNs have now been disclosed BUT resolution cost in cash/share issuance unclear ... large dilution very possible risk at this low SP as CLNs can be converted to shares once Prospectus is available
> Kilimapesa high-grade zone @4.5g/t is 3x historic ore grades so 3x gold for same cost/tonne mined and processed has possibility of driving AISC down considerably assuming enough of it can be found but identified 6 months worth so far!
> Presentation implies SP will bounce back upto 1p once funding has been resolved but lots of assumptions baked in including minimal dilution is achievable and/or announcements will deliver lots of good news to offset some dilution
ATB APR

Interesting presentation especially:
> Plant 1 Milling "Plant will be optimized to increase recovery from 75% to +90% as part of the expansion project" 93% recovery was previously achieved by hooking up Plant 2 Tailings but this plant is stated as OFF and not part of Expansion project so not sure how you get 75%>90% without Plant 2

> KPG Plant 2 Tailings is NOT in expansion plan ... my guess is 50% recovery is very similar to HL which is cheaper to run so why spend lots of CAPEX on Plant 2

> Plant 3 HL at has 3x 7.5kt pads for 22.5kt capacity running at 15ktpm throughput BUT presentation says will be expanded by an additional 50ktpm HOWEVER diagram on page13 clearly shows plant Plant 4 Commercial HL as 6x 20kt pads giving total 120kt capacity so an additional 50ktpm throughput implies 3 of the 6 large pads to be commissioned or 50% of Plant 4 designed capacity as HL cook-cycle looks like 5-6 weeks/pad to get 50% recoveries

> Exploration Priority 1 = Vim Rutha & Kilimapesa both targeting 1Moz with VR MRE expected before Dec-23

> Nyakafuru Mine is targeting 50koz so expecting 2ktpd plant design or 4x current KPG plant scale

> Nyakafuru Reefs acquisition has not been mentioned as this is another 400koz JORC resource, but it is shown on maps

Just a few random thoughts
ATB APR

@BigBoy Yes but if ARCM retains 30% and AAL remains the operator then ARC gets PASSIVE income from its retained share of the NewCo whch it can use to fund its exploration AND still be a mid-tier producer
ATB APR

@Chis What he is saying is that despite near record POG gold is still trading on a RATIO basis relatively cheap to stocks which are still historically highly priced.

I say if my chart is correct and POG is closing out a bull flag then $2.5k POG & $50 silver is entirely possible which shouold give GWMO a little lift
ATB APR

Steady guys ... the stated $1250 AISC was a target based on use of all 4 plants AND 2koz/month production. There are a LOT of variables in AISC measure, it is not linear and very sensitive to both overall gold output and associated costs to produce said gold as lots of a miners costs are fixed with many variable costs not scaling with output.

However, that said high grade ore makes a massive difference to output and hence profitability per tonne of ore mined and processed particularly with todays high energy costs
ATB APR

wow absolutely fantastic news ... I have waited for this much longer than I care to remember
Well done to all who have stuck by their convictions and held through the many ups and downs

... let the drilling at scale and at speed begin!
A rerun of Voisey Bay would be nice
ATB APR

More likely gold and silver price action breaking out of 2-year downtrend
ATB APR

@SW My understanding of GCAT current operational status is as follows:
> Plant 1 Mill & CIL = confirmed as operational with original 500tpd mill running a standard 20 day month for 10ktpm throughput but stated as running at 300tpd of circa 4.5g/t high-grade ore at 75% recovery. I am assuming that throughput is limited by ore supply not plant as this has previously run at 500tpd with no stated problems at 80% recoveries.

> Plant 2 Tailings & CIL = offline as currently uneconomic at low throughput rates, but previously run using tailings from Plant 1 at 52% historical recovery

> Plant 3 Heap Leach = confirmed as operational for 3x 7.5kt pads giving 22.5kt total capacity

> Plant 4 Heap Leach = completion for 2x 60kt commercial pads has not been announced I would assume it still requires CAPEX to complete so I am therefore assuming it is on hold and not operational

My observation is that using the recently accessed high grade ore GCAT can increase gold production from plant 1 for the SAME COST compared to is "historic" Kilimapesa open pit/underground operation which is a gamechanger for overall gold production even with reduced %recovery even with Plant 2 tailings plant is offline.

On "same cost basis" for Plant 1 only assuming 20 days/month operation @500tpd throughput:
> original ore was 1.5g/t & 80% recovery = 1.5g/t *80% *500tpd *20days/31.1 = 386oz/month
> revised ore is 4.5g/t & 75% recovery = 4.5g/t *75% *500tpd *20days/31.1 = 1,085oz/month
So for same COST Plant 1 can produce 2.8x more gold than before even with reduced efficiency for any given throughput but currently reported as 60% of full throughput and ramping up ... IMHO limited by high grade ore availability.

Grade is always King and output from Plant 1 can be used to feed Plant 3 HL or stockpiled for when Plant 2 is turned back on so no gold should be lost just recovery is postponed. If they can do this then current costs can be held down to a minimum and at current POG should be very profitable ... we just don't know how profitable or when ramp-up to 500tpd can be achieved BUT this tells me that on balance they should be profitable by "high-grading" and therefore remain a going concern albeit with Plant 2 offline and everything non-essential left on hold.

However as previously stated the REAL issue is just how many shares are actually in circulation and/or will be required to settle the outstanding CLN debt as GCAT are in breach of CLN terms so the denominator in the MCap calculation is unknown ergo we don't know how many new shares will be required to settle the debt so can only surmise what the required dilution may be ... or will it be paid off via new non-dilutatory debt reducing CAPEX availability for expansion?

Overall availability of high-grade ore massively decreases downside "going concern" risk, but I'm still trying to work out if SP at 0.35p is cheap or not before I invest further as the stated MCap is most likely erroneous.
AIMHO & DYOR
ATB

@SW I'd like to think so but we really have no idea what the current AISC actually is so all those profit/month projections I have been seeing over last few weeks are pure conjecture as AISC given by RM last year was a target and not an actual so I am currently taking it as aspirational. That said running Plant 1 for very high grade ore and plant 3/4 for Heap Leach keeps costs low and recoveries high.
ATB APR

@JC POG has conclusively broken out of 2-year downtrend but if you zoom out to monthly chart you can see clear bull flag from 2020 lows @$1450 implies a $600 uplift from breakout around $1950 so targeting $2,550 ... and then if you look at the very clear cup and handle pattern over last 10 years that implies a $2,950 target.

GCAT study used $1700/1650 target and indicated $400/450/oz profit so these POG targets will supercharge profitability by 2x to 3x AND al of this was without recently identified high grade zones.

Only bit we do not know is how many more shares will GCAT be issuing to clear the CLNs and how much non-dilutional debt can they secure to finance this?
ATB APR

Finally after 2 years downtrend BOTH Gold and silver have broken out in style today
ATB APR

Good news ... 13 days is a very particular number not 2 or 3 weeks so looks like this is the last leg
I've waited at least 6 years so what is another 13 days!
ATB APR

@Lukey I understood total strike was 6.5km of which 1.5km is NOT under lavas and is showing at surface so proportionally circa 23% is not under cover.
ATB APR

Good to know they have the ability to "high-grade" effectively doubling their output albeit at 75% recoveries as the Tailing plant is still offline but concerned that they are running Plant 1 at 360tpd rather than the 500tpd mill capacity.

Still boil it down and I am just glad they should be producing 600oz at 360tpd and 845oz/month at 500tpd assuming 20 operational days, 75% recovery and 3.5g/t average grade ... grade is (almost) everything !
ATB APR

Nothing on GWMO website ... anyone found anything?

@Troajan nothing to do with GWMO

@JC Agreed, I am thinking of the "current" and associated SP more in terms of what the SP will be once funding has been agreed implying the SP may not change much from current levels to reflect some dilution with the MC recovering to £10-12m but at the lower SP albeit with far more shares in circulation as MC = SP x shares in circulation. Not perfect but given we have various CLNs to resolve AND then additional funding to cover CAPEX plus funds to allow a full restart then it becomes trickier.

Personally I am standing pat on my investment as I expect a bounce on recapitalisation announcement, but absolutely no idea to what SP albeit I am expecting MC to recover ... not that this will help existing PIs overly much as a recovery to 0.8/0.9p seems far off just now! Hopefully I am proven wrong and SP recovers fully!
ATB APR

DXY is up and gold/silver plus commodities priced in $ under pressure would be my best guess
ATB APR