Member Info for aprogerson

@jon Not aware of any but more importantly we need confirmation of grade and quantity plus that JV has been signed. We also know that we have spoil heaps at OMCO and will need the JV to process fresh ore once new vein grade/extent has been confirmed
ATB APR

@RP Enjoy your break ... and yes I'm all lined up to crunch some Q2 numbers when they land.

Expected confirmation for Kilimapesa:
> Plant 1 & 2 = when EXACTLY they will be upgrading plant as have variously said Q3/4 & Q1/2 ... which is it?
> June Presentation = RM 'clarification' implied 6 months (Q3/4) for upgrades for Plant 1&2
> Plant 3 HL = operational & is it 20kt or 30kt capacity ... Q1 RNS was 5kt loaded on one of 4x 7.5kt pads?
> Plant 4 HL = construction capacity of 2x 60kt (?) & commissioning timeline ... from site photos
> Plant 3 & 4 HL = %efficiency & planned cook cycle times as efficiency rises with time but at cost of throughput
> Gold production = 1koz/month was achieved in Q2 ... expecting 1,450oz/month in June (plant 1&2 plus some of 3)
> MRE JORC compliance = revised MRE based on infill drilling batch 1&2 is JORC compliant
> Mine Plan = confirmation of mine plan progression & ore production expansion to feed HL plants

Brucey Bonuses?
> Nyakafuru Update = completion of acquisition & timeline for drill programme & mine build plan/funding
> Nyakafuru Reefs & Simba = acquisition update & timelines
> Kili Exploration licence = repatriation of Red Ray exploration licence & 140koz JORC added back to MRE
> Kili MRE updates = includes expansion drilling batches 3 & 4 ... expected Oct-22

Q2 Operations Report is now way overdue so early next week is looking very likely now
ATB APR

@Jon That would be nice but getting to £10m first on the back of steady tailings production would be nice. There are some nice producers out there around £35m so GWMO have a way to go before they get into that category but confirmation of a decent gold/silver vein at historic OMCO grades would help speed that along
ATB APR

@woodlaker LOL, GUN are heavily invested in commodity stocks and heavily weighed to PGM and Nickel miners who are heavily down, but with circa £1m cash and £2.2M MCap you do the math when this turns ... and it will.
ATB APR

@Lukeytukki Yes agreed ... my point was that ANY one would be a rerate trigger so if all 3 come to pass I will be a very happy bunny !
ATB APR

@Bebeto My best guess for Q2 is ramping upto1,450oz/ month in Jun-22 for Plant 1&2 at full tilt plus Plant 3 @20kt and 1-month cook cycle with nothing from Plant 4

@Suggins LOL if only
ATB APR

@suggins I think that is my point about lack of explanation. Is it an administrative correction of past issuance or new issuance to move the TZ acquisition forward?
ATB APR

RNS today for 87.5m shares in connection with acquisition of Tanzanian projects is effectively 4.65% dilution of 1879m existing shares in issue. No details of exactly "what" the shares were for, what remains and what the next steps are so hopefully more information will follow.

Q2 Operations report is now overdue so hopefully this RNS clears the way for it later today or on Monday.
ATB APR

GWMO have 3 main "Next Steps" that i can see to focus on now:
1) Tailing & Ore production = await MJ Tailings assays to confirm grade via processing JV >> revenue stream
2) OMCO Drill assays = to confirm very shallow unmined vein grade, strike & volume >>> mine & then process via JV
3) MJ Drill assays = confirm continuation of historic mine mineralisation >>> more drilling and/or mining
Things are coming together nicely now with (1) and (2) being a potential near-term rerate potential if confirmed
ATB APR

LOL gold up and gold stocks down ... can't make this stuff up!
ATB APR

@ItsYou I'm going to stop trying to work it out or infer what they are going to do until after Q2 Ops report drops as that should fill in a couple more "missing" pieces.

All I can see is that they seem to be being incredibly conservative or Plant 1&2 need to be both offline for 5 months to fully upgrade AND Plant 4 won't produce anything until Dec-22 which also makes no sense. Plant 3 20kt HL can produce 590oz/month on its own with a 1-month cook cycle and 1.72g/t at 53.5% efficiency given Q1 figures.
It must be me
ATB APR

@swamp Whilst I can't disagree the numbers provided make no sense ....
Presentation slide production namely:
> Production from Jan-2023 to June-2023 is @2koz/month
> 12- month Period Jul-22 to Jun-23 = 15,196oz
> Ramp-up period Jul-22 to Dec-22 = 15,196 - 12,000 = 3,196oz or average 532oz/month

This is equivalent to 50% of plant 1 and 2 combined or just Plant 3 for the next 6 months to Dec-22 on the assumption that there will be 2koz/month after Dec-22 ... it makes zero sense as that would mean that Dec-22 itself would also be 532oz which breaks there pledge to hit 2koz/month in Dec-22 ... OR they hit 2koz in Dec-22 and then teh next 5 months is 3196-2000 = 1196oz TOTAL for the next 5 months or 240oz/month Jul-22 to Nov-22 inclusive!

Someone tell me where my maths is incorrect please? I think they need a new slide
ATBA PR

@lowpay Sadly commodities are just getting kicked and generally hated with strong dollar not helping. Howvere backdrop is very strong demand from central banks for gold and World Gold Council site showing nett 250t bought H1 2022 alone. Record premiums on physical gold & Silver metals worldwide assuming to can get it at all and COMEX being drained of silver fast.

This makes no sense unless you follow what the Central Banks are actually doing versus what they are saying now they are also net long silver ... when this changes it will be hard & fast!
ATB APR

@TopCod, nice spot thanks. Robbie tweets all on track and provides some ore clarity on June Presentation slide production namely:
> Production from Jan-2023 to June-2023 is @2koz/month
> 12- month Period Jul-22 to Jun-23 = 15,196oz
> Ramp-up period Jul-22 to Dec-22 = 15,196 - 12,000 = 3,196oz or average 532oz/month

Interesting as previously stated Plant 1 & 2 would be upgraded in Q1/2 2023 which may or may not still be the case depending how they run the Plant 3&4 140kt HL capacity as this could be run on 2-month cook cycle with 1-72g/t and 53.5% recovery and produce 2070oz/month. I guess when Q2 Operations report comes out more will be revealed!

What is now very clear is GCAT has lots of options to deliver 2koz/month which is a good thing, but surprised by low 532oz/month up to Dec-22 which is easily achievable with no Plant 1, 2 or 4 and just Plant 3 20kt HL running a 1-month cook cycle on pilot plant grades and %efficiencies. GCAT have set themselves a very, very low bar for balance of 2022.
ATB APR

@TopCod this is a slide from the June Presentation @ https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_JUNE-22-FINAL.pdf showing mine and gold processing plant performance over time. A number of posters here have tried to unpick this opaque slide based on last Operational report for Q1 2022. Thsi slide will become much less opaque when we get Q2 Ops report expected this week as this will unpack HL %efficiency, sizing, construction timelines et al.
ATB APR

@Bismark I have previously complained to LSE about random, persistent Ads for random stuff popping up across the page making their site all but useless ... LSEs solution? Get an Ad Blocker ... I use AbBlocker Plus and its serene!
ATB APR

@OOSM Thanks for you considered approach and feedback on my prior analysis. If it helps I was also confused about Plant 3 "actual" capacity as various RNSs have referred to 4x 7.5kt physical pad capacity versus 4x5kt stated loading out size during pilot study. My figures assume the "worst" being Plant 3 = 20kt but you maybe correct and it could be 30kt given the physical pads sizes.

Not sure that helps, but I might repost my prior analysis in case others have a view or further insights.
ATB APR

@RP and OOSM My analysis used Q1 %efficiency and ore grade figures which when scaled up fitted the Jun-22 presentation for both ore required and gold produced assuming a 3-month or 60 day HL cook cycle; effectively reducing the Plant 3 and 4 combined throughput tonnage from 140kt to an average of 46.7kt/month. The Q1 report stated a 53.5% efficiency for the then pilot plant based on a 14-day cook cycle, but everything I've read since indicates that with a 3-month cook cycle that this should rise to 65-75% dependent on metallurgy and processing flowsheet.

As I previously stated I also believe that they have been very, very conservative with their full-year steady-state figures from July-2023 leaving themselves plenty of room to over-perform.
ATB APR

I had expected Q2 Operational report to land today or latest 15-Aug-22 given average over last 3 quarterly report was 27 days.
ATB APR

Central Banks nett Gold purchases stand at +270t in 1st 6 months of 2022 with 170t of that in last 3 months alone! CB message of don't do as we do do as we say continues LOL. Even Turkey is buying Gold and they are broke!

World Gold Council Central Buying buying article https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2022/08/central-bank-buying-strengthens-june#:~:text=Central%20bank%20net%20purchasers%20rise,to%20June%202022%20where%20available.&text=The%20Central%20Bank%20of%20Iraq,%2C%2011%25%20of%20total%20reserves.

More food for thought ... and when this turns it will be fast and strong!
ATB APR