Member Info for aprogerson

@OOSM Thanks for the feedback, always welcome & I'll have a look at you detailed comments later
ATB APR

@swampy Exactly. To my mind:
Reasonable downside scenarios are covered by:
> strongly rising production output target 2koz/month Dec-22 and 4koz/month Q2/3 2023
> low AISC at $1,250 and more likely to head lower than higher
> 10-year mine life from Batch 1&2 infill drill results increasing current JORC confidence
> Batch 3&4 expansion drill results due in updated MRE latest OCt-22
> GCATs ability to 3x HL gold production (in June Presentation) by using 1-month vs. 3-month cook cycle

Upside Scenarios:
> POG does what it "should" be doing and rerates to $2,000 or circa $2,500 consensus estimates or outperforms and goes "Nickel" due to one of many possible market or CB fiat dislocations
> GCAT brings forward Plant 4 operations into Q4 and hits 2kpoz/month much earlier
> GCAT runs Plant 3&4 "hot" in Q1/2-2023 on 1-month cook cycle whilst Plant 1&2 upgraded so no dip in gold output
> Any of above causes GCAT to rerate well above 2.5p before Dec-22 and all 300m+ warrants exercised bringing in £7.5m new cash
ATB APR

@swamp Sentiment is a tricky thing but we do know that Junior miners are absolutely hated right now but given gold is one of the few things actually performing reasonably well (except in the US$) and it is being heavily bought when PX drops that puts a really strong floor in at around $1680. IF we break $2k or even $2,050 then GCATs profitability will multiply up very rapidly into a strongly rising production number.

GCAT @1,878m shares and 0.75p is currently sat at £14m MCap which is pretty much the same as at Aug-21 RTO but an enormously different animal and 2x production even back in Q1. For Dec-22 we will hit 2koz/month at (say) POG $1,850 and AISC $1,250 gives $600/oz profit or $1.2m or £985k/month profit.

By Dec-22 if GCAT SP=1.6p then MCap =£30m so P/E=2.5 at 2koz/month & $1,800 POG which seems very, very reasonable. However we also know that there are a bunch of warrants due to expire in Dec-22 priced at 2p that GCAT would much rather have exercised to bring in a decent slug of cash. GCAT do not control POG. but they can control how much gold they produce given they can vary the HL cook cycle to produce more gold albeit at lower % efficiencies AND they can push on with larger 2x 60kt HL pads even one of these operational on a 1-month cook cycle will produce a HUGE slug of additional gold especially IF Plant 3 is also fully operational.

My Nov/Dec-22 Goldilocks Scenario is circa 3,450oz/month:
Plant 1 & 2 (15ktpm) = 15kt *2.5g/t /31.1 *91% = 1,090oz/month full-time until end Q4'22
Plant 3 (20ktpm) = 20kt *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 590z/month assumed 100% available
Plant 4 (2x 60kt pads) = 120kt/2 *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 1,770oz/month assumed only 1 pad available
It is not beyond the realms of possibility just so GCAT can "showcase" what they are capable of AND if by any remote chance they have BOTH Plant 4 pads operational then they can easily slam 4koz/month ... depends how bullish they want to be!

Food for thought anyway
ATB APR

Please see my 3 post analysis posted @3-July-22 breaking down my analysis of GCATs June Presentation namely slide 11 "KILIMAPESA PRODUCTION FORECAST" and how I think they have arrived at gold production, mine production over time given grades et al published in Q1 Ops Report.

My numbers match with 5% or so of those published and correlate to Plant availability and throughput already given. So whilst they haven't exactly spelt it out for us we can in fact infer quite a lot if you follow the ..................
ATB APR

@maqsood My prediction for Q2 Ops Report from my "Great Expectations" post @27-Jul-22 was:

Best guess Q2'22 gold production circa 1,390oz/month average over period
Plant 1 & 2 (15ktpm) = 15kt *2.5g/t /31.1 *91% = 1,095oz/month full-time until end Q4'22
Plant 3 (20ktpm) = 20kt *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 590z/month @50% average = 295oz/month as capacity commissioned and/or mine ore output ramps up into Q3
Plant 4 (2x 60kt pads) = under construction so anything would be a bonus!

Sorry Greg I've no idea how you derive 533ozs production forecast from GCAT presentation ... please explain?!

GCAT have already stated that Plant 1 & 2 upgrades have now been delayed until Q1/2 2023 so we know that this setup will produce 950oz plus a month in Q1 and that was working 18 days rather than their normal 20 days/month operation. We also know that Plant 3 has now been built out as we have seen the pictures confirming such and we know the pilot was commissioned back in Mar-22 ... so I have assumed a "worst case" of only 50% working capacity on a 1-month cook cycle for my figures but using pilot plant efficiencies and grades.

IMHO I hope that they will overperform as my "expected" figures are very, very conservative. I also hope that GCAT gives far more detail on revised mine grades and HL plant performance, cook-cycles and expected %Efficiencies going forward.
ATB APR

@swampy Yep looks that way on the weekly chart POG has very clearly broken above both $1,760 résistance level AND and prior long term downtrend resistance at same point which should not be support. HOWEVER, I do expect POG to retest this support but it might be at a lower POG if that makes sense?
ATB APR

We have been calling out these "missing" share trades for months and asking GCAT that they declare them officially and declare the TVS properly which they have now done!

About time and no "news" here as all past transactions that we knew about or inferred from Aug-21 Prospectus, but not officially declared
ATB APR

@SW thanks for posting link @https://youtu.be/CfVqDRVdC54
My takeaways are few but VERY important confirmations from Riian:
> Updated MRE confirmed 10-year LOM @Kilimapsea
> Heap Leach Pilot Plant actual results show that is still profitable down to $1,300 POG
> GCAT aim to move from a Kenyan focused Junior producer into an East African mid-Tier gold producer and possibly consider other metals in due course
Looking good
ATB APR

@Suggins LOL no it is just what my chart tells me as $1,765 is where downtrend from Aug-20 crosses long term support/resistance so super important as I am expecting it to retest a couple of times before breaking through and then retesting from above down to possibly $1,750 before it then move off as would signal uptrend then in play

Sorry a bit long winded but just calling it as I see it
ATB APR

Silver has done EXACTLY the same thing so HUGE pressure and suspect if silver breaks up then gold will follow especially as shorts will be being covered and short squeeze may well follow

Yes POG now pushing up to POG downtrend from Aug-2020 and resistance at $1,765 so will be hard work to break through
Fingers crossed
ATB APR

@lowpay I just wish they find economic amounts of gold at 20g/t as modern mines are economic @1-2g/t.

What BH did say was that there maybe lower grade gold/silver haloes around historic veins that whilst lower grade may still host considerable amounts of relatively shallow gold/silver albeit at higher extraction cost compared to historic vein hosted mineralisation.

OMCO was high grade at circa 25g/t plus high grade silver in discrete shallow veins so relatively easy to mine and extract.
ATB APR

Silver has done the same and nice reversal at $18.7 support ... curious that commercial banks are now net long versus Specs who are probably panicking about now as their shorts are looking very dodgy
ATB APR

@swamp yes nice bounce off $1,680 POG lows ... this is the 6th hard bounce off that price point since Aug-2020 so lets just hope it sticks
ATB APR

Update News in pipeline:
> Gold production expect 1koz to be broken in Q2
> Targeting strongly rising production capacity, efficiency and gold output = 2koz @Dec-22 & 4koz Q3'23 = on track ?
> Low AISC @$1,250 & trajectory with more HL coming online to go lower = Revised AISC ?
> Strong MRE resource growth from batch 3 and 4 drill programmes in Oct-22 = on track & JORC'd?
> Plant 3 (4x 5kt pads) HL = build completion & %recovery (65/75%) confirmation but cycle time dependent
> Plant 4 (2x 60kt) HL = capacity/configuration, build pad #1 confirmation start, progress & timeline
> Underground mine drive and additional stopes opened to increase mine output to feed HL pads
> News on mine at Nayakafuru subject to BFS and funding = expected date ?

Best guess Q2'22 gold production circa 1,390oz/month average over period
Plant 1 & 2 (15ktpm) = 15kt *2.5g/t /31.1 *91% = 1,095oz/month full-time until end Q4'22
Plant 3 (20ktpm) = 20kt *1m cycle time *1.72/31.1 *53.5% = 590z/month @50% average as capacity commissioned
Plant 4 (2x 60kt pads) = under construction so anything would be a bonus!

Annualised 'Steady State' throughput & Production estimates possible from Q2/3 2023:
> Plant 1&2 = 30kt *12months *2.5/31.1 *91% = 26,300oz/year ... expect upgrades in Q1/2 2023
> Plant 3&4 = 140kt/3m cycle time *12months *1.72/31.1 *70% = 21,666z/year ... completed Q1 2023 latest
So 'Nameplate' gold production = 48koz/annum or 4koz/month as per June'22 presentation

We are expecting Q2 Operations report to 30-Jun-22 to land 8-Aug-22 ... or 2 & 15-Aug-22 given:
Q3'21 to 30-Sept-21 was 2-Nov-21 = 23 working days
Q4'21 to 31-Dec-21 was 9-Feb-22 = 27 working days
Q1'22 to 331-Mar-22 was 20-May-22 = 32 working days
Average was 27 days so Tick Tock
ATB APR

@Trek GCAT is very well placed with ...
> Low AISC @$1,250 and trajectory with more HL coming online to go lower
> strongly rising production capacity, efficiency and gold output = 2koz @Dec-22 & 4koz Q3'23
> New exploration licence in pipeline to bring Red Ray @140koz JORC back into fold
> New mine at Nayakafuru subject to BFS and funding
> Strong MRE resource growth from batch 3 and 4 drill programmes

If POG drops more then GCAT is very well placed to weather the storm whist higher AISC producers will go on fire sale especially if they need cash which GCAT will still be throwing off
ATB APR

@Trek Whilst I understand the DXY to POG inverse mantra it really is not the whole story. If you find a source such as NorthStarBadCharts they clearly show that POG significantly outperforms "inflation adjusted" USD and POG is very sensitive to real interest rates not just nominal ones as it has no yield.

If Euro and/or Yen don't recover then DXY will soar further and EMs will struggle due to weight of USD denominated debt. Also Yellen suspected of going to Japan to talk them out of selling 1.3T US debt to buy Yen

It's a mad world and if stuff continues to break then more of everything including PMs will be sold off. GCAT should do (relatively) well if that happens due to low AISC
ATB APR

@ID78 I exited HUM for GCAT and very glad I did as their AISC was appalling and getting worse. I like HUMs story and prospects but massively let down by management. GCAT has low AISC, expanding at pace and fantastic management team that continue to develop at huge pace.
ATB APR

$1,680 was my 'bounce' price as major support going back to Jun-2013 so just hoping this holds
ATB APR

@Predator Expecting Q2 Operational Report to end Jun-22 in next 2-3 weeks which should have updates on:
> Gold production ... expecting 1koz to be broken
> Batch # 3 assay delivery news
> Plant 3 (4x 5kt pads) HL = build completion & %recovery confirmation
> Plant 4 (2x 60kt) HL = build pad1 confirmation start, progress & timeline
> Mine drive and additional stopes opened to increase mine output to feed HL pads

Lots of good stuff to come including:
> Nyakafuru mine build cost, funding and plan
> Red Ray Exploration licence confirmation
> Batch #3 & 4 expansion drilling update
> MRE - confirmation of JORC and/or inclusion of batch #3 results
ATB APR