Member Info for antonvb

Now why would they need to expand the airport in Turkana.....?

https://twitter.com/Ceciliaishuu/status/1648766282643169298?t=vR3-071jqrUNWnrwtonhiw&s=19

Compensation for the land for the new pipeline perhaps....?

https://twitter.com/NLC_Kenya/status/1648747579889287169?t=FcqqVszbds1aJaDnNNWvBA&s=19

I think you'll find that last year Keith Hill on two separate occasion put a specific date on Kenya when giving AOI updates. Of course none of these dates materialised and the rampers on here keep getting abuse about them, however they were merely repeating what Keith Hill said. I believe AOI had no choice but to do that as Keith Hill had already made himself look foolish by giving dates and couldn't give yet another date. Rahul, despite all the abuse he receives, has been clever enough not to commit to a date. However, in the Tullow update a week after the AOI update where they wrote it off, he was extremely upbeat about it and Tullow has not written it off. Plus let's not forget that Tullow are the operator and have the 50% stake.

End of the day ..... it will happen or it won't happen and which is correct remains to be seen. From a cyncinal prospective if you're short you'd take the view it won't as it has been dragging on since 2014. However, from a holders point of view there is definitely too much evidence to suggest it will be written off. Also, you have to remember that a lot of these negotiations were done in 2022 when oil was over $135 a barrel. So if Rahul was clever, which I believe he is, everything with the partner would have been agreed and signed last year with a caveat of the FDP being approve.

Time will tell......

Because it's material and because no one believes it's ever going to happen it's not priced in. You just have to look at the evidence and the signs are there that it will happen. You have to remember that the election was in August last year, so just over 6 months ago. Plus in that time EPRA had a dollar crises to deal with. Rahul has stated the license is secure and the FDP has gone to EPRA, plus partners are in place so no reason not to believe it won't happen.

https://twitter.com/EnergyMinK/status/1622919006637158407
https://twitter.com/EnergyMinK/status/1622919013142609923
https://twitter.com/EnergyMinK/status/1622919016581832706
https://twitter.com/GeoffreyKaituko/status/1629184479066525696
https://twitter.com/NLC_Kenya/status/1628751290284089345
https://twitter.com/NLC_Kenya/status/1628751342373163008
https://twitter.com/NLC_Kenya/status/1628751398740402176
https://twitter.com/Ceciliaishuu/status/1629132888221315077
https://twitter.com/Kalicha71986/status/1623290098740563968
https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1624784911550013440
https://twitter.com/AlexKWachira/status/1628004131188142081

Nothing guaranteed of course, however just too much evidence to ignore I think. I'd definitely say there's more chance of Kenya happening than an equity raise ;-)

Maybe they're addressing the communication issue with a bit of luck...

https://twitter.com/Lissamykels/status/1646904771687636992?t=konGzud0XEbwzRjzLCQHpA&s=19

Rahul stated last month the FDP is with EPRA and he also stated the licence was secure. So probably very unlikely it will be taken away from Tullow. I still think Kenya will happen and probably already would of if it wasn't for last years elections. Things take time in Africa.

I emailed IR to ask for timeframes on Kenya earlier this year and got this response on the 31st of March:

"I can’t provide further information over what has been published. The final FDP was submitted for approval in early March and the approval process, including ratification by parliament, is expected to conclude later this year.

We continue to engagement with the Government of Kenya and regulators to ensure timely approval of the revised FDP. It would be inappropriate to try and second guess the timeframe (including general process), but it remains a key deliverable and catalyst this year."

Why won't it happen? Every single post on here that has a negative leaning tends never to give any explanation or rationale.

I tried emailing EPRA to ask and got an undeliverable as mailbox full response .... And people on here still wonder why Kenya is taking so long and keep blaming Rahul for the fact it is taking so long.

"Delivery has failed to these recipients or groups:

The recipient's mailbox is full and can't accept messages now. Please try resending your message later, or contact the recipient directly.

The following organization rejected your message: epra-exchange2.erc.go.ke."

Daniel Kiptoo is the Director General of EPRA
https://www.epra.go.ke/team-members/mr-daniel-kiptoo-bargoria/

We know that Tullow submitted the FDP to EPRA for approval last month. In the following YouTube video that has an extract of him speaking, he puts clear timelines on the FDP approval process by the Cabinet Secretary and Parliament of 30 days and 60 days respectively. The missing link here appears to be how long EPRA have to do their bit before passing the FDP along for the next step by the Cabinet Secretary. Tullow worked with the EPRA on the revised FDP before submitting it, so you'd hope that it would just be a formality. Does anyone have any info on how long EPRA may take?

https://youtu.be/9sllyh2UT0M
At 1:21 in the video
"we will also be able to develop a framework of monitoring costs because these costs are indeed costs recoverable we need to work jointly between ourselves to monitor the costs in terms of the Contracting process that the contractor will be going through once we then review this we will then move on to a final submission of this FDP to the cabinet secretary and as I said by operation of law the cabinet secretary will be required to take a determination on this within 30 days after which the field development plan will then go to Parliament and Parliament will have 60 days within which to make a determination after which we will then have an approval with or without amendments or a rejection of the field development plan as the case may be"

Someone is ramping this....

https://beststocks.com/tullow-oil-a-stable-performer-in-a-volatile-marke/
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/otcmkts-tuwoy-analyst-earnings-estimates-2023-04-14/

BigN
Posted in: TLW
Price: 30.74
Order rejected12 Apr 2023 13:19
Just tried to sell five million - no takers

BigN
Posted in: TLW
Price: 31.04
RE: Order rejected12 Apr 2023 16:07
I don’t claim to have 5 million shares - just pointing out that, if I did, I would be stuck with them. Tullow isn’t wanted. No vision in the boardroom.

Says everything you need to know and proves they just post made up nonsense.

Fact Check

BigN doesn't hold any shares and is disappointed their short isn't performing as expected.

BigN
Posted in: TLW
Price: 30.74
Order rejected12 Apr 2023 13:19
Just tried to sell five million - no takers

BigN
Posted in: TLW
Price: 31.04
RE: Order rejected12 Apr 2023 16:07
I don’t claim to have 5 million shares - just pointing out that, if I did, I would be stuck with them. Tullow isn’t wanted. No vision in the boardroom.

Says everything you need to know and proves they just post made up nonsense.

Ignore them .... they're just a wind up merchant who doesn't even own one share. Probably just taken a short on a spread bet and trying to deramp by posting nonsense in desperation.

Their point is they're full of BS and short, with no shares to sell long. No way someone who deramps this at 30p saying it's going much lower holds 1 share let alone 5 million. Just more pointless drivel to be ignored.

Their moderation team is useless and probably just a BOT that deletes posts when people report them. They should just change this site so that you get a green bar under every post, as that is basically what happens now. Except of course when it's BOGOF on green posts, then you get two.

Considering the big drop this morning I was wondering where all the trolls were. They were surprisingly quite and I'm surprised we didn't get the standard equity raise posting from Happyinvestor100.

Quite a few stop losses must of got triggered this morning. All for one broker rating who hasn't got it right for over 3 years now. Ironically if you look at the broker rating over the past 3 years the price has gone up during periods where the share price was being downgraded and down during periods where it was be upgraded. You do have to wonder how they get away with such blatant manipulation.

Well at least they wished us Happy Easter......

https://twitter.com/TullowOilplc/status/1644428375837012000?t=brRfV7qBgHhBWa0VyfVVlg&s=19

So why bother posting on a zombie companies BB. Let me guess, you just pop in to do your civic duty and see if you can save us. Just admit you're short .... why not .... we know you are. I mean let's be realistic here, you're fooling no one. I also don't know why you care so much about what other people are doing. It's their money so they can do with it what they want. Hmmmm ... wouldn't by any chance be that you want them to sell so it helps your short out now would it?

I love how all the experts on here trade with hindsight.....amazing how when you look at a historical graph you can always pick the low you should of bought at and the high you should of sold at. You'd think they'd be billionaires with that kind of knowledge. Strangely they're not ..... funny that.

Ahem .... if you bought Tullow sub 10p during the Covid low you'd have a multi bagger ..... just saying!