Member Info for antonvb

Thinking about it logically, something is definitely up .... If Kenya was worthless and a complete non starter the RNS would of declared that all 3 companies are withdrawing from the licence. We know that Rahul likes to pinch his pennies and TLW had allocated £10m to Kenya in 2023. Rahul would of exited too and saved as much of the £10m as possible if there was no value in it for TLW. Must be some horse trading going on in the background and we'll probably see another RNS soon or get more info tomorrow at the AGM.

So I was a bit nervous when I saw the Kenya RNS email in my inbox this morning. However, was very pleasantly surprised when I read it and even more happy now I've had time to digest it. There is no way this is negative for so many reasons. The MM's long ago wrote Kenya off and it it has no value reflected in the share price. Plus it only currently has an asset value of around £300m million on the balance sheet. So if it is never developed that is not a huge hit and TLW would be saving the £10m allocated to Kenya. Plus there is no revenue lost as it is not generating any. Then from the farm out perspective, if you're looking for a partner and you've just been gifted 50% for free this gives you an incredible amount of flexibility. There are so many permutations on how this could now play out in TLW's favour. An example being they could keep 25%, sell 50% and give 25% to the Kenyan government. That would probably be more than TLW ever expected to get out of it and the Kenyan's would be over the moon. Imagine how much political good will that would buy the government, being able to say they have secured 25% of the oil for the people. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out and I think it is going to be interesting.

Https://twitter.com/fenice/status/1657757634894741504?t=QHbJiZkfMn4Tm0x2GgO3xA&s=19

Sinopec are the world's 4th biggest company by revenue it seems. Nice deep pockets.....be nice to have them on board. Plus the Chinese are financing the Uganda pipeline after environmental investors forced Standard Bank to withdraw financing.

https://www.constructionkenya.com/4750/hoima-tanga-pipeline-project/

Same article, different source

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/ongc-oil-india-in-talks-for-50-stake-in-3-4-bn-kenya-oilfield-chinese-firm-enters-fray/articleshow/100416407.cms

Thanks BigRisky. That is the most detailed info we've seen on the Kenya deal. Hopefully Rahul will finally give a proper update during the AGM this week.

Https://nation.africa/kenya/business/sh2-4bn-for-lokichar-lamu-crude-oil-pipeline-preparatory-work--4239490

And a little more evidence...

https://twitter.com/MwangoCapital/status/1659536912762429441?t=XnM6z1OJBmJB66sD_e7-jw&s=19

We're half way to 50p again.....and one quarter of the way to £1 :-)

GLA who are long......

Blue finish again today.....seems in recent times any big gain has been taken away the following day. So very unusual for them to let us keep yesterday's 7% gain. Wonder if the worm has finally turned.....I certainly hope so.

Starboard if you watch the 2022 trading update or the 2002 year end result presentation (can't recall which it was), this was discussed. Rahul stated that they've been unable to buy. My understanding is directors cannot buy shares just before they make a major announcement affecting the share price. If they could you'd see them all buying/selling shares the day before the RNS's were released.

Https://twitter.com/NLC_Kenya/status/1659544107256094720?t=zQ5e2McdTxk7Ww1EaSkj1g&s=19

And of course until the Ghana gas deal is done too....

He can't buy until the Kenya deal is done (even if it falls through) as that would be insider trading..... none of the BOD can buy now

I think one of the shorts is reducing today and causing the increase. Lately after the odd random 5% in crease day we've seen a reduction in one of the big shorts. They'd be mad not to close at this level with the potential catalysts in the pipeline.....

Ding Dong 22p is long gone.....

Exactly.......if anyone should be prosecuted it is him....time for a class action lawsuit against him and AOI by LTH I think. He definitely misled us last year.....

You know this isn't North Korea and you're allowed an opinion tight?

Reason I got into Tullow in the first place was it was heavily over sold in 2019 from £1 down. The same has happened now from 50p. No good reason for us to be the price we were back in 2020 during covid when oil was worthless. No one thought they could refinance then and they did. Same will happen again, plus a few catalysts and this will bounce and bounce big. These smug shorters will soon feel the same pain we've felt as our profits evaporated other way down.

Our shorter friend's keep rubbing it in how we've been fleeced from 66p down to the current price. Can't really argue with that. However, what is very telling is that on the drop we have seen the big shorts reducing rather than increasing and we've not seen a single holdings RNS during this time. So seems to imply that the shorts worked this down to orchestrate their exit and the big holders are not concerned and happy to sit it out. Once one of the catalyst RNS's is released they'll pile in before the market opens to us plebs.... those waiting in the wings will miss out on a massive jump in share price and our shorter friend's will be in tears when they wake up and open their spread betting app.

I'm wondering if the target is 20p and we'll bounce from there. Seems like there's no obvious reason for the drop besides a change in sentiment and someone is buying all the shares being sold. AGM next week could be the turning point and is definitely going to be interesting.

President Ruto appoints Kiraitu Murungi as Chairperson of the Board of Directors of the National Oil Corporation of Kenya

https://twitter.com/Kenyans/status/1649339888091770880?t=1a88BRpSP4_wowXtdatXrg&s=19

He then announces they plan to produce oil and want to join OPEC+

https://twitter.com/Kenyans/status/1653621351448559617?t=d66WivGYlZalF0gZIFQmag&s=19

Are the stars finally aligning.....?