Member Info for antonvb

NSVPatel ... I never mentioned what the deal would entail in my post and merely stated "My hope is that the deal was agreed in principle with ONGC and IOC back when oil was $135 last year". I.e. agreed during a period of extremely high oil prices, as it's a lot easier to negotiate a better deal at $150 oil as opposed to $40 oil. What the deal is remains to be seen.

I can't see raising equity being an option with 1.5 billion shares in issue and a market cap of £377m. You'd have to issue billions of shares to make it worthwhile and Rahul would be diluting his 20 million share options down to nothing. My hope is that the deal was agreed in principle with ONGC and IOC back when oil was $135 last year, as that was when the news was leaking. They have huge pockets and are very hungry for expansion into emerging markets, having done many deals in other countries over the past year.

Examples
https://twitter.com/HardeepSPuri/status/1651984292791332864
https://twitter.com/HardeepSPuri/status/1648716131195305984
https://twitter.com/HardeepSPuri/status/1641066336309870592
https://twitter.com/HardeepSPuri/status/1629030621082456064
https://twitter.com/ChairmanIOCL/status/1651938954999128064

Time will tell and I don't think we have to wait much longer....

And even more news coming out of Kenya.... looks like the have aspirations to join OPEC+

https://twitter.com/Kenyans/status/1653621351448559617?t=CsYMkKfFXdLkfrIOy-IG2w&s=19

Oh, the grand old Duke of York
He had ten thousand Tullow shares
He watched them go up to 66p
And he watched them go down again

And when oil were up, they were down
And when oil were down, they were down
And when oil were only half-way up
They were neither up but always down

Reporting 0.51% short

I can't keep it a secret anymore doctordong ... you're rumbled me. I work for a big name brokerage and am being paid to ramp this. My brokerage has a contract with Tullow to do this. I'd name the brokerage, but I can't think of any big ones that hold a vast amount of Tullow shares at the moment.

It is funny though, as I have posted many twitter links on here and many articles referencing the Kenya deal that are all adding up to a decision sometime in June. I haven't seen a single reference to anything....not one..... posted by the naysayers on here. The only thing we ever hear from them to support their argument is the debt or that the oil price is tanking. Plus of course the usual stuff about the global economy about to crash, interest rates about to go up, etc. I honestly think they are making the same mistake I make when this went to 60p and back to 30p. I got greedy, plain and simple. They have done well shorting this down from 60p and should close. However, they too are greedy and now want blood with dreams of closing sub 10p. Reality is it is probably very unlikely and we're more likely see a rise back up to 60p on the 3 catalysts. They'll get rinsed just like I and many others did. It's how the MM's make their money. Chase it up and then chase it down, then repeat. They're all sleep walking into a Kenya RNS.

Everyone keeps banging on about the debt .... maybe and just maybe Rahul is planning to buy back some of those discounted bonds with the cash they get for Kenya. Kenya seems imminent .... there's so much negative noise on here it's drowning out all the positive news and hints coming out of Kenya. However we'll have to wait till at least June at the earliest. I'm sure Rahul also though it'd be done by the end of 2022, however the election in Kenya cause a delay ... no doubt about that.

Also, just bear in mind one thing .... yes the bonds are trading at a discount, however the minute Tullow buy one then they will rocket back up. So in theory buying them at a discount is great, however in reality difficult. They have said this before.

Problem is what can he say that he hasn't already said. He has said Kenya will happen this year, a Ghana gas deal will happen and Jubilee will produce over 100k bopd by year end. You need to remember Tollow is Africa focused and the wheels of motion move slowly and unpredictability there. So they can't commit to any dates. Imagine what the share price would be if he said Kenya would be signed on the 1st of May and the deadline was missed. Yip, we'd be sub 15p again before you could sell a single share. Keith Hill at AOI mentioned specific dates and they were all missed. That erodes confidence and he should be getting flak for it rather than Rahul.

If you hold you need to ask yourself are his 3 catalysts likely going to happen this year. If you believe they are then you need to be patient till at least the end of 2023 and if they do, you'll be rewarded.

Andoman would you rather sell your TLW shares for 25p or 70p?

Slater606 .... all true, however believe what you like as it really doesn't make any difference to me.

NSVPatel ... lol....I said over the years I've seen ..... I wasn't even a twinkle in fathers eye in 1929.

NOTE TO SELF .... Must remember not to engage in debate on here with the inexorable.

These are both from March, however haven't shown up on my Ministry of Energy and Petroleums website searches until today for some reason. Unless I just missed them .... not sure....

https://petroleum.go.ke/lokichar-oil-fields-turkana-projected-export-120000-barrels-crude-oil-day-upon-completion-lamu

https://petroleum.go.ke/stakeholders-engagement

Slater606 you're completely wrong about me. Yes, I ramp shamelessly, however I'm merely a PI who first bought Tullow in March 2020. I have seen over the years that after every major market shock, the stock market has recovered very quickly. So when the Covid crash came I jumped in. My thought was that it would either recover or most of us would be dead and the financial system would collapse making money worthless anyway. Even those who invested in precious metals on the markets would of found them worthless.....as unless you actually held the gold in your hand what good would it have been to you in an end of days scenario.

I have my opinions on things and express it here. It's the purpose of this board. I'm largely cynical as I believe everything.....including the oil price.....is very manipulated. Especially by the US. Just look at all the wars they've dragged countries into over the years.

I know I haven't been right for a quite some time now, however I was definitely right while ramping this all the way from 9p to 66p. I still think there is potential for this to get back to those levels and beyond if Tullows catalysts that are in the pipeline come off. Obviously I hold so am biased and don't have "the special knowledge" that others have on here. Time will tell what happens, however I makes my choices and I takes my chances.

You make me laugh....... you certainly pick your days for your self praise and defecation of others. Dont seem to recall you posting anything on Friday last week. Just remember....no ones right all the time and you're only right until you're not wrong.

The US need to refill those strategic reserves and arent going to donit at $100......

And even more signs of things happening in Kenya

https://twitter.com/TurkanaAssembly/status/1653317133445496832?t=LF5C3PZynv0u6T4AYt25OA&s=19

My post from the weekend with the Twitter links got deleted. By engaging them in abuse you are effectively burying good info as threads get deleted and just helping their cause. Anyway.....here are the links again.....

https://twitter.com/pspetroleum_ke/status/1651914510859468800?t=xpt_BU5-GqMsmy_g-P8hIw&s=19

https://twitter.com/pspetroleum_ke/status/1638876547015737344?t=lvYeyDlcXWO2j46iVP8JEQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/Ceciliaishuu/status/1652695695625793538?t=mC5eZ26ASap94-ln3H44YQ&s=19

And one new link......the only midstream projest on their website is the proposed pipeline to get the oil out and the number 1 upstream project is the oil field itself. So they must be putting together the legal framework for these.....surely?

https://twitter.com/pspetroleum_ke/status/1642857866703896577?t=BlORn4SMGIu7V-x_3Q-GZw&s=19

https://twitter.com/Riccardino999/status/1652712981728206848?t=dkHtI91QZOXE_pmLc7m9DQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/Riccardino999/status/1652722185868288000?t=IsZnsawt1Iikb24Y2RSKkg&s=19

https://twitter.com/Riccardino999/status/1652717632603189253?t=2aWrtLrGtrMp6r-kBgrxKA&s=19

https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/africa/article/14293048/deal-strengthens-tullow-gabons-position-in-offshore-tchatamba-area

According to the last link in 2001 Tchatamba was producing 35k bopd and not so long ago 20k bopd, while the others are very low producing fields. So this ties in with Rahul's strategy of focusing on producing assets. If he can get production up to 20k again or indeed 35k then that would result in an extra 3k to 4.5k bopd production increase. DE8 is probably just a cherry.

I'm probably over simplifying it, however seems logical. Much lower cost to target one high producing field than targeting lots of small ones.

https://petroleum.go.ke/upstream
https://petroleum.go.ke/midstream