Member Info for antonvb

1) Historically an oil price of $70 is still a very high oil price.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

2) Tullow didn't go bust when oil went to $0 a barrel, the debt was higher, etc. so is very unlikely to go bust now.

3) The last time Tullow hit single figures we were in a global lockdown, which is very unlikely to happen again in the near future. Certainly not for Covid anyway.

4) The hedges are designed to protect the company and are way more complex than people on here would lead you to believe. Some protect the downside while still giving expose to the upside and some have a ceiling price. That is why last year they averaged nearly $90 a barrel with 75% hedged. Read today's annual report if you want some details of the 2023 hedging.

4) There are a lot of catalysts to drive the share price forward expected this year and are not factored into any of the FCF predictions for the year.

5) Tullow is already paying a premium on their bonds of 10%. As they'll be in a much stronger position when refinancing should either get the same interest rate or better. So these interest rate rise will have little impact. Plus you can ensure the powers that be will try crash the economies of the world so they get handed out free money at 0% interest again.

There is a lot of negativity on here from very new members who say they have nothing invested. Now why would anyone take the time to create an account and randomnly pick a share to post on a BB warning people of impending doom..... yes you guessed it because they're short. The strange thing between people who are long and people who are short is that those long tend to tell you they are invested, while those short seem to feel the need to hide their position. Perhaps it is because of the nature of someone who takes a bet against a company wishing it goes bust so they can make the maximum from their postion, with no regard or feeling for its employees and families.

So I'd ignore the BS being posted on here, do your own research and make you own minds up.

Going to be an interesting year. GLA

Not holding shares and posting on here every 2 minutes makes even less sense.....

And I'll be ramping it till the day I sell.....

It all boils down to the price you paid on the day when you bought and the price you get on the day you sell. What happens in between is irrelevant. I got lucky and got in here very low, so while I've lost a huge amount of profit I'm still up. When I bought in I was never expecting to be holding this long, as really thought by now Kenya would be a done deal. However, I can still afford to hold and really believe this year is going to be the year that changes things for Tullow. Of course I've been saying that for for the past 2 years. Rahul gets a lot of stick on here from some members, however he has delivered on all his promises. Maybe someone else could of done a better job, who knows. However, he's not had a lot to work with.

I also believe that the markets often don't work on fundamentals anymore. Stocks are targeted by MM's, chased up and then dumped. The lemmings who get in late always get burnt. You just have to look at the likes of what happened to Tesla, Amazon, etc. This is so cheap now that when money does come back in due to an RNS on one of the catalysts, a 3p increase which is a mere £12.8 million will result in a 10% increase in share price. This will put us in the top 5 risers of the day and people will sit up and take notice. It will then get chased up as people follow the money. It has already happened in the past, around March 2021 I think it was, when we went from 30p to over 60p in a month.

Time will tell..... GLA

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-international-upstream-oil-gas-122112304.html

No fireworks unfortunately. Market seemed to like it though as we reversed nearly 5% of todays losses during the webinar.

They do it because they can.....

Everything has a bottom and we're being driven down by general market turmoil. I don't think they're going bust and all the FCF predictions don't include Ghana Gas or Kenya. So those are key and I'll just wait it out. If not this year at some point in the not too distant future there'll be another oil spike. Let's see what Rahul says at 12 today.

Credit goes to Adieuk32. They posted about it originally and a possible merger because of it. Despite all the abuse they've got from the derampers Adieuk32 was right last time when they suspected something was up and the CNE merger got announced very soon after.

Is there any significance in that?

Now there's a contradiction if ever I heard one. Another new account feeling the need to warn us heading for the filter list (probably you know who). You'd be crazy to be out over the weekend if you're a holder. There's a investor webinar on Monday, so not impossible we'll see an RNS on Monday morning or perhaps get some good news.

We're currently in unchartered times again and are possibly experiencing the second biggest financial meltdown since 2008 and our share price is currently 29p. While for the past two months our share price ranged between 33p and 35p before these events. In the scheme of things I'd say in the current climate the share price has actually been fairly resilient given that during that same period oil has gone from $90 to $72 and we drop 5% most days just for fun.

Yes, I'm eternally optimistic about this share and yes I'm well aware of the fact that it's halved in value since the good old days of 60p. However, for me I think the damage is done, so don't see any reason to sell now during the lows and will hold in the hope of a recovery.

Cue NSVPatel

TLW down -0.48%
HBR down -0.40%

Again today. Looks like they're definitely trading along very similar patterns. On the plus side we're down less than Shell today at this moment in time.

Why is that nonsense. He has over 10 million free share options with 9 million having a vesting date of 1st July 2025. So he can't benefit financially from these till 2025 at the earliest. Unless perhaps he used them as surety for something. He was appointed on 1st of July 2020 and has a 5 year plan for Tullow, with his options vesting in 2025. Strange coincidence hmmmmm. So I'm pretty sure his real concern is what the share price will be then and not what it is now. Obviously, I'm sure he'd like it higher now too. I'm also pretty sure if he did buy shares any benefit from the small spike resulting from the director dealing RNS would be short lived.

Whatever happens one thing is probably certain and that's that they won't be raising cash. If they issued double the shares in circulation, they'd raise £424 million. So that's a non starter, especially as it seems no one wants the shares in issue now, so how are you going to find a buyer for another 1.5 billion shares. And even if they could, what does an extra £424 million change. Then regarding borrowing more. If they can't pay their current debts then borrowing additional funds is also not going to be an option. So either they have everything under control as stated during the results presentation or they're going bust. My money is on them not going bust and this financial hiccup passing within 6 months. As I've said many times I'm no expert though, however just base my opinions on what I've seen in the past. Like how fast the markets bounced back in 2008 and 2020. Of course some companies went splat and didn't bounce back during those times.

Funny thing Slift is that in 2020 your posting on here was one of the things that encouraged me to take a punt on Tullow at 9p. You posted detailed in depth analysis and I respected your opinion. However, ever since you sold out in the you seem to have resorted to popping in here to post general negative statements with no detail, insults and sniping comments. I think for someone with your level of market knowledge it's pretty unbecoming and a poor show.

It's part of his remuneration package from when he was appointed. Details of some of his options are in the RNS link below from his declaration when the merger with CNE was proposed. When you look at the vesting date of his options you can see why he is not concerned with the share price in the short term. However, it's definitely in his interests to get this over £1 in the longer term.

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/47/26664

Funny how all the Mystic Megs on here are taking the credit for warning us that this was going back to the twenties. Reality is we are where we are due to a general financial meltdown, rather than anything specific to Tullow. You don't have to look hard to find a share that's had a big drop today.

I'm going to say blue day tomorrow. Seems to always go up the next day after a big drop. Let's see what happens. GLA

More nonsense......the last time before the debt was refinanced it was classed as a current liability and there was no issue with the accounts. Go check the past year end results.

I repeat...

https://youtu.be/L3uip-T3DI4

The whole financial market is in turmoil today and you feel the need to try shoe horn todays drop into your equity raise narrative. You're so desperate for Tullow to go bust just so you can say to yourself you were right to sell at 20p 3 years ago. Really pathetic.

https://youtu.be/L3uip-T3DI4

Both Tullow and Harbour got broker ratings from Canaccord today:

HBR 13-Mar-23 Canaccord Genuity Buy 525.00 515.00 Reiteration
TLW 13-Mar-23 Canaccord Genuity Buy 62.00 54.00 Reiteration

Both shares showing similar loses:
HBR at time of posting this: -6.54%
TLW at time of posting this: -6.92%

Hmmmmm.....

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