Member Info for antonvb

Not sure if us plebs are invited, but you can see the event here

https://www.yellowstoneadvisory.com/events

Way I see it is in very simplistic terms and think this is their strategy. I have a £500k mortgage and I have £250k in cash. I rather invest my £250k in something else and just keep paying my mortgage which I'm comfortable paying every month. That way further down the line I no longer have a mortgage and I have a buy to let flat. If I just dumped it into my mortgage by the time I saved it again I wouldn't be able to afford the buy to let flat due to inflation.

The market just doesn't like Tullow and some of the shorts have a vendetta against it as they lost huge sums shorting it in the past. Not to mention investing in oil and gas has become taboo.

One thing is worth noting.....we haven't had a reporting threshold RNS for some time. So while the big holders aren't increasing their stakes, they're not dumping stock either.

The gamble is Kenya and Ghana gas. If those come off people are going to be wishing they sold their houses and went all in at 30p. Either way, we'll know within 6 months I think.

The debt is not an issue. If there's a financial meltdown interest rates will go back to almost zero percent and there's enough oil hedged to stop Tullow going bust if oil tanks.

For 3 years I've been hearing on hear how this company is going to bust at any minute. Hate to disappoint you all but it just ain't gonna happen.

I doubt it's the windfall tax, as ENQ would of also gone up but is down nearly 5%.

Funny you say that about him.....I also though his body language was completely different to his past Webinars. Found it hard to read. I'm very curious to hear what's said in the March 20th Webinar.

I know I'm over optimistic most of the time here, however they seemed to be more confident in the presentation. I thought Richard Miller even had a bit of arrogance about him when he answered the debt question. As he he knows something or has something planned. Also, I seem to recall Rahul saying at the end something to the effect of it's no longer a case of jam tomorrow. So hopefully 2024 is going to be jamin'.

Cue NSVPatel ....

Thanks for taking the time to respond DestituteBroker. Always good to get an educated opinion.... long or short.

I'll hijack your reply to Starboard. That's fair enough, however you say "majority here are not interested in the back room office & how the Industry works.". So if you feel that, then of what interest is a random post saying "next Week is going to be very volatile".

If you were the random nutter on here who just posts constant meaningless posts, then I'd have just ignored your post. However, you seem to have a better knowledge of the markets than most so would be nice to get some context rather then just a vague statement. I know those that post on the negative side often get abuse or shot down on here, however that is generally only because those doing it have sold out in the 20's and are now popping back to antagonize, just trolls or posting ridiculous unsubstantiated nonsense.

Really....
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but why bother post this. Without any context it's just meaningless.

Member since 9th Mar 2023. Another of NSV's accounts for the growing filtered list I suspect.

Yesterday, on a decent set of results the share price dropped nearly 10% yesterday. This board was flooded with posters that appeared out of the woodwork after years of hiding to tell us they'd been quietly watching this, that we're in dire straights and it's over for Tullow. How they'd warned us ages ago and how stupid we were.

Magically we're up 5% the next day and of course they're nowhere to be seen. Not a peep out of them.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/tullow-submits-new-plan-for-turkana-oil-fields-4151768

I think it's a pretty dumb move to short this now.....

https://twitter.com/Riccardino999/status/1633585672761098240

In the presentation yesterday Rahul mentioned that they were constrained by the processing capacity rather than production capacity for gas.

https://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/Archive+2023/TullowOil..mp4
"There is existing midstream capacity up to 150m scuffs per day and the GNGC plant to go beyond that is going to require additional investment. There's a couple of plants being worked on right now, one by GNGC and one by another company, so we're pretty comfortable that one of those things will come through over the next couple of years."

The fact GNGC have started to develop a second gas processing plant I think bodes well for the gas deal.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GNGCOfficial/status/1621894955001077760

In context:
* 1 MMBtu currently trades at around $2.50 and equals 961.54 Standard cubic feet.
* 150m scuffs equals 155,999 MMBtu
* 155,999 MMBtu * $2.50 equals $389,999
* Annually worth around $142,349,772 or 1/3 of the market cap

Assuming my calculations are correct and I'm no expert.

I particularly liked the way he answered the question very confidently about Kenya. I got abuse on here by the haters when I posted the Twitter references even though at the time even a blind man could see from them what was happening.

At around 42 mins into the presentation

https://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/Archive+2023/TullowOil..mp4

"The next stage is for the FDP to be approved and there has been a lot of prework done through last year and the beginning of this year. And remember you've got a change of government (bit more waffle) and we worked with them to finalise the FDP which we kind of did and that got submitted last week."

So sounds like the horse trading is done and the FDP issues resolved and agreed... 30 days till parliament and 60 days in parliament. Don't care what anyone says. I'm not selling now. As mad as it was not to sell at the high of 60p it's equally mad to sell at the low of 30p.

My money so I'll do what the f I like and those that don't agree with me are free to do the same.

I can wait it out .... there's a Ghana gas deal coming ... even at a ****ty price for gas it's 14k boepd and a Kenya decision ... positive or negative. I'll take my chances. Each to their own.....

To all those criticising Rahul.....can you please provide a clear funded strategy of what he needs to do to get the share price up to 50p plus. You do know that Tullow posted its first profit in quite a few years and at one point we're down nearly 10% on the results. What exactly is he supposed to do....and before you just spout out reduce debt... please explain how he can do that.....and don't just spout out by increasing production. It costs money to increase production, so where is that going to come from..... and HappyInvestor100 don't just spout out from raising equity as you must surely know by now it's a ridiculous notion.

The only thing that needs to change is sentiment. I think we'll get that change in sentiment in the form of a Ghana gas or Kenya RNS within the next 3 to 6 months. Ghana gas alone should add at least 14k bopde onto the 2023 production figures. That's a 25% increase.....not to be sniffed at. Just a matter of patience for me.

Cue NSVPatel.....

Be a blue day tomorrow..... almost guaranteed