Member Info for antonvb

There will come a time to sell…. is it now …. No, don’t think so.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15648363/Strait-Hormuz-kill-box-sailors-Trump-Iran.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/15/iran-war-live-trump-urges-world-to-keep-hormuz-strait-open

“ ‘Let Trump send his ships into the Gulf if he dares’: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard

Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), dismissed US claims that Iran’s naval capabilities have been destroyed.

“The Strait of Hormuz is under Iran’s full control, and any aggression will be met with a decisive response,” he said in a report carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Naini also challenged Trump’s remarks that the US had destroyed Iran’s navy.

“Didn’t Trump say that Iran’s navy has been destroyed? If so, let him send his ships into the Persian Gulf if he dares.”

The IRGC spokesperson said Iran has already launched about 700 missiles and 3,600 drones at “American and Zionist” targets since the war began.

He warned that more powerful weapons remain unused, adding that Iran will continue attacks until it believes deterrence has been restored.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15645711/iran-strikes-uae-port-threatens-abduct-us-militar-tehran-trumps-kharg-island-live-updates.html

“ us president donald trump has doubled down on his demand that countries that need oil should help combat iran's efforts to shut the strait of hormuz.”

trump: i ****ed it up …. you fix it

sir kier: macron, got any jumper cables we can borrow, so we can get our navy out to the gulf?

MisterPositive..... JMAX got involved in that thread so it probably turned abusive and was deleted by admin.

Xxnjr or maybe they've turned off the transponders to make it harder to be targeted by Iranian missiles :-)

Brutal day given the RNS last night and what we closed at yesterday.

Flavius that's true to a degree, however you can only control the narrative for so long before the cracks will appear. If oil is not getting to market, it is only for so long you can tell everyone it is fine and at some point you won't be able to hide it anymore. It's one thing to tell someone don't worry there's plenty of food in the fridge for dinner, however at some point they will open it to get their dinner.

The question is has Trump underestimated the Iranians. Yes, he can bomb the hell out of the place, however they're fanatical and are happy to be martyred. These drones are cheap and can pretty much be launched from anywhere, plus you don't need a giant factory to make them. If the Iranians decide to sacrifice themselves and go for maximum damage to prove a point, it will be very difficult for Trump.

Https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.9/centery:25.8/zoom:8

Indeed. Not much going through it by the look of it.

Control the narrative ....

Trump told reporters US forces are 'very far ahead of schedule,' claiming Iran's military has effectively been destroyed.

'I think the war is very complete, pretty much,' Trump told CBS News. 'They have no navy, no communications, they've got no Air Force...Wrapping up is all in my mind.'

Since the war started every time the price of oil starts to rocket there's a rumour it'll be over soon and the price drops. How long they can keep it up remains to be seen ..... certainly doesn't look like that 20% of global supply is on it's way through the Straights of Hormuz.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.8/centery:25.8/zoom:8

Oil opens at $100 and now already $105 after 15 minutes trading

https://www.ig.com/uk/commodities/markets-commodities/brent-crude

From the 2025 HY results….

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/8317/5446/3320/Tullow_Oil_Plc_-_2025_HY_Report_-_FINAL.pdf

For 1H 2026, Tullow’s hedge portfolio provides downside protection for c.15% of forecast production entitlements with c.$57/bbl weighted average floors, while c.10% is capped predominately with collars with weighted average sold calls at c.$76/bbl.

No hedges were in place for 2H 2026 as at 30 June 2025. All financial instruments that are initially recognised and subsequently measured at fair value have been classified in accordance with the hierarchy described in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement. Fair value is the amount for which the asset or liability could be exchanged in an arm’s length transaction at the relevant date. Where available, fair values are determined using quoted prices in active markets (Level 1). To the extent that market prices are not available, fair values are estimated by reference to market-based transactions or using standard valuation techniques for the applicable.

Using the reserves report from earlier this year

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6117/7157/0362/Independent_audit_of_Tullow_Petroleum_Assets_YE2025.pdf

ChatGPT says the following and if true has to be the reason for delaying 2025 results till end of April.

3️⃣ Hedges only exist for 2026

The audit confirms:

• No hedge volumes exist beyond 2026. 

So after this year:

👉 Tullow becomes fully exposed to oil prices.

This is important for valuation.

⸻

4️⃣ The remaining hedge volumes are very small

From the latest hedge disclosures:

For 1H 2026 the company had hedged only about 3,424 barrels/day. 

Tullow’s production is roughly:

• ~40,000 boepd total

• ~34,000 bopd liquids

So hedged volumes represent roughly:

👉 ~8–10% of production

Meaning:

👉 ~90% of production is exposed to market oil prices.

📊 Simple takeaway

Tullow is now very lightly hedged.

At current prices:

• about 90% of production benefits directly from high oil prices

• hedging has almost no impact on asset value

• all hedges expire after 2026

Meaning the company is now largely a leveraged play on Brent prices.

Https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events

Interesting. Results day is 26th of April, when in prior years it has always been in March ..... why? Is it because they'll have the $40 million for Kenya by then, Ghana will have caught up on some their outstanding payments, the refinancing will be signed and sealed, they'll have a few months of higher production from the new wells to report, they'll have had 2 months of high oil prices at that point, a combination of these or something else?

Looks like it was a head injury that put Soder in a coma for 2 months......

Soder .... been in a coma for the past 2 months or just short and panicking?

The critical market implication

If Hormuz were disrupted long enough to force production shut-ins:

global supply would drop dramatically

even if OPEC wanted to increase output elsewhere, they couldn’t compensate quickly

Because the problem becomes logistics, not production capacity.

Why this matters for companies like Tullow

Tullow’s production is in:

Ghana

Côte d’Ivoire

These exports do not depend on Hormuz.

So if Gulf exports are disrupted:

Brent price spikes

West African crude becomes more valuable

Tullow’s cash flow increases dramatically

That’s why geopolitical risk in the Gulf can be bullish for Atlantic Basin producers.

3️⃣ What happens if wells are shut in?

Stopping oil production isn’t like turning off a tap.

There are several risks:

Pressure loss

Reservoir pressure declines when production stops.

Water or gas breakthrough

Restarting production can cause unstable flow.

Mechanical risks

Shutting wells and pipelines can create integrity problems.

Restart times vary

Type of field Restart time

Modern offshore fields days–weeks

Large conventional fields weeks

Older reservoirs weeks–months

For giant Middle East fields (e.g. Saudi supergiants):

Production could likely restart within days to a few weeks, but not instantly.

2️⃣ How quickly would producers run out of storage?

This is where your logic becomes important.

Countries that export through Hormuz include:

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Kuwait

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Combined exports: roughly 17 million barrels/day.

Most producers have limited domestic storage, typically 10–30 days of production capacity.

Example rough estimates:

Country Estimated export storage

Saudi Arabia ~30–40 days

UAE ~20–30 days

Kuwait ~15–20 days

Iraq ~10–15 days

If exports stopped entirely:

👉 storage could start filling within 1–3 weeks.

After that:

exports must resume

production must be curtailed

or wells must be shut in

1️⃣ How long could the Strait stay closed?

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade (~17–20 million barrels per day).

If it were physically blocked:

Western navies (especially the United States Navy) would likely try to reopen it quickly.

Past “tanker wars” in the 1980s show that escorts and mine-clearing operations can restore traffic.

Realistic closure scenarios:

Scenario Likely duration

Harassment / insurance disruption days–weeks

Mining of shipping lanes weeks

Major military conflict months (but unlikely)

The consensus among military analysts is that a full closure for many months is unlikely, but temporary disruptions of several weeks are plausible.

even if they agree to increase output, there's a couple of unaswered questions here:

1) how long will the straights stay closed?

2) how long before they run out of oil storage space given they can't get the oil out through the straights?

3) if they are forced to stop production or cap wells due to lack of storage, how quickly can they restart production?

i don't think this is as simple as some would have you believe .... the trump administration is doing a good job of controlling the narrative to suppress the oil price spike, however i think it's a **** show out there. how long before you can't hide it anymore?

xxnjr ... any ideas?

They can't buy as 2025 results are out this month.

Whoops ... meant to post this here...

It's one thing to say it and it's another thing to do it. There's thousands of ships going through the straight every day and only a handful of warships to protect them. Iran has missiles that can reach Cyprus, so just securing the shoreline isn't going to cut it I don't think. Going to be hard to put a lid on this one.