Member Info for antonvb

This statement was in the RNS on the 9th of March announcing the receipt of the second Kenya payment.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/receipt-of-tranche-b-payment-for-kenya-assets-sale-vi16ms8ja1hzspi.html

“Tullow's 2026 pre-financing cash flow guidance of $150-180 million was issued at $65/bbl. Based on realised oil prices in January and February, and an average oil price of $100/bbl for the remainder of 2026, pre-financing cash flow guidance would double.”

At the point in time when this RNS was issued, the conflict had been ongoing for a little over a week and Trump was calling it a 2 week excursion. It’s now been going for 2 months and to me looks like no sign of it ending. It has caused significant disruption to energy supplies that will probably last for months after it eventually does come to an end.

Tullow’s guidance has been based on $65 oil and the current oil price is materially above that. Also note that the statement is based on realised prices Jan–Feb + $100 for rest of year, so means part of the year is already locked in lower and upside estimate is conservative.

Tuesday is going to be very interesting…… place your bets!

Only 1 trade showing today for 50K and it's not at 11.4

23-Apr-26 08:13:19 11.9087 50,000 Buy* 11.22 12.10 5,954 O

You can’t buy the notes as they are suspended from trading.

Https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:733526/zoom:10

We're in day 46 of the war and as far as I can tell 20% of the worlds oil hasn't being going anywhere. When this started ChatGPT seemed to think that Saudi, the UAE, etc. had 3 or 4 weeks max before they run out of storage. We're well beyond that, so surely wells must be shut in by now. Yet, we're told everything is fine and oil can't seem to break and hold $100. Yet the reality on the ground seems different when looking at the price at the pumps and reading about fuel rationing in countries, airlines cancelling routes due to fuel shortages, etc.

I'm wondering how long can the price of oil can be controlled by narrative and at what point does this do serious damage to production capacity in the Middle East. I'm also surprised the Middle Eastern oil producing countries have been fairly quite while all this is going on, as they must be losing billions and billions. Just can't see $60 or $70 oil again anytime soon, as this must be causing damage to the supply that will take months to fix and the longer it goes on for the worse it gets.

And one last thought. If 20% of the worlds oil supply isn't getting to market and strategic reserves are being used to artificially keep prices "down", how long can that go on for?

Yup .... It's in your posting history

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,996

Price: 17.285

RE: Biggest daily rise EVER, and I missed it!3 Apr 2020 19:43

Are you completely out of TLW now?

I was and still am massively down here - but I would rather lose the lot than sell. I have been tranche buying

Spot on ....

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,994

Price: 223.40

RE: Re:TMF article27 Jul 2018 13:26

Hello people,

I am in for the long term. I see it like this - I am looking for around £5.00. For us to get there we obviously need the debt to keep going down and oil prices to stay $70plus. However, despite the rights issue, should this happen and with our reserves we could get quite a bit higher too.

Don't hear you bragging about FARN on here ... how's that one working out for you?

You do know that Tullow signed an offtake agreement with Glencore as part of the refinancing? Not sure it works quite the way you are describing, as depends on the terms of the offtake agreement.

Oil dropped yesterday on the news he was going to make a speech, but rose as soon as he opened his mouth. Look at the oil graph and what happened at 2am UK time. They’re losing their grip on the narrative. I think even Helikon are going to have to admit to themselves now that holding a 1.81% short n Tullow isn’t a great idea.

On the plus side .... least they don't pay income tax.

The only reason to make the deadline when the markets are closed is if the news would shock the markets. So probably safe to say Iran is in for a hammering over the weekend .... maybe even boots on the ground too.

JMAX,

You had TLW as a 'strong buy' when it was 250p plus.

Thanks xxnjr

Talking of liftings .... xxnjr how are the production numbers looking based on your latest liftings data?

Thanks. Still doesn't show anything when I refresh it. Must be a glitch with my browser.

Is this just a technical glitch or have the bonds been redeemed, as it isn't showing a price today.

https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/bond/usg91237ab60-tullow-oil-plc-10-25-21-26?mic=XFRA

An interesting read….

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/us-says-theyre-talking-iran-says-theyre-not-whos-telling-the-truth

Some on here were buying this at £3.60 a share

Probably just your usual response for a response sake, however a valid question. The equity is not priced on “what is the price per barrel of oil today”, but rather “what oil will average over the next 12–24 months”. So once it becomes clear that there is prolonged disruption, $60 no longer the base case and higher oil prices will be around for a while, then equity will re-rate.