Member Info for antonvb

More food for thought ... the last time in early March when the US and Iran sat round a negotiating table the talks were adjourned on the Friday and scheduled to continue on Monday. Then guess what happened...... the US and Israel attacked Iran on the Friday night. So why would Iran trust the US now?

This isn't going to get resolved anytime soon and even when it does $80 will seem cheap..... the war has helped Tullow immensely and in my view isn't yet reflected in the share price.

They’re playing games. Twice since this war started oil has got to $110 and was looking like it was about to go to $120 and then onwards. Both times Trump made announcements that it would be over soon and both times those announcements caused it to drop back to $95. Both times nothing came of the announcements. Trump is using uncertainty to hold back the price. You have to be very careful buying oil over $100 as he could just make another announcement and drop the price at any time. All the while the straight remains closed and Iran don’t seem to be in any rush to open it. We’re now in week 4, so I wonder if they’re starting to shut in wells already …. hopefully I got the right terminology xxnjr :-)

My prediction is oil back $110 before the end of the week, as besides a tweet what has actually changed?

They are probably in a closed period with 2025 results due end of April.

Https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18By2ShKL2/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Not sure who produces these or if they’re US propaganda, but an interesting watch about Kharg Island.

Worth a read https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Military-Force-May-Not-Be-Enough-to-Reopen-the-Strait-of-Hormuz.html

The other point the oil markets seem to be missing is that the threat that has now been withdrawn was to bomb Iranian power plants if the straight is not open in 48 hours. The threat has been put on hold for 5 days and Trump has effectively backed down. So what is now going to want to make the Iranians open it. Pretty much nothing .... they can realistically keep it closed and cause so much economic pressure that Trump will be forced out. This is fast becoming his Vietnam.

Maybe he got the Ouija board out over the weekend and had talks with Iran's leadership, as a few weeks ago he was claiming he'd killed 3 sets of them.

In the past 3 weeks every time the price of oil starts running away Trump posts a tweet to cause it to drop. However, all the while the straight is still blocked, storage is fast running out and missiles are flying.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.9/centery:25.8/zoom:8

The big problem Trump has is that he has blinked first now. The Iranians now know they have him by the short and curlys, as the straight is the Achilles heel. There's only 2 options left to him ... either declare the greatest victory the US has ever seen and walk away heel or bomb Iran into oblivion. I don't think either option is going to send oil back to $60 any time soon and I know which option the Israeli's will be gunning for.

Funny old world we live in.....

An interesting watch…

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1GJKPXVoHN/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Think it is going to be a while yet before the straight is open.

28th of April .... https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/

I don’t know StanlyPro… the Algo seems to be working perfectly for “who is them”. This seems to swing around 7% at least once a day. Someone is making money…..

And in other news… the war in Iran has ended and oil is back to $65 ….. well at least that’s what the share price seems to think.

Control of the narrative unraveling fast....

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Could-Hit-150-If-War-Continues-Through-End-of-March.html

Who is "We"?

Yes some of the oil will already be hedged. But remember they can now hedge future production in a $100 oil environment. So will benefit.

They’re starting to lose their grip on the narrative….

Labour migrant plans under scrutiny and Iran gas field targeted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8g8pyq9l3o

How about $120 oil....

Sinking of a coalition battleship in the straight....

Oil tanker on fire in the straight....

Helikon buying back 1.81% ....

UAE capping wells as they've run out of storage ....

Who knows....

Could you not post your whole message in the subject. thanks

They can control the narrative, but not the reality. Question is how long before the masses realise they're controlling the narrative. When you look at the papers it's hardly mentioned, yet 20% of the worlds oil is blocked, storage is running out, wells are being capped and the world economy is on the brink of a major shock. Really is unbelievable.

Trump doesn't want to send the US Navy into the straights as he knows it will only take one drone to get through and Iran could possibly sink one of their ships. So he's asking Nato and Starmer to do it. They don't want to do it as they are thinking the same thing. Plus I think the British navy hasn't been kept in a serviceable condition, so is probably not even capable of protecting the straights.

In the 80's the US protected the straights and kept them open. However, this is a different time. Drones are a game changer, small light and easy to move and conceal. Only takes a fanatic with one to do major damage and there's probably thousands of them.

Also, at some point our good friends at Helikon will also have to admit defeat and buy back 1.81% of the shares.