We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Free shares as part of the directors remuneration. Lots of people on here say Rahul is not interested in the share price, only serves the bond holders etc., however they seem to forget that by 2025 he'll have over 20 million shares. Pretty sure he wants to sell them one day for a lot more than 27p.
26th Feb https://x.com/TurkanaCountyKE/status/1761970959001526614?s=20
"Tullow Oil's Bethwell Sang discussed the company's long-term plan, emphasizing ongoing maintenance of the facility and oil field machines. Accompanied by Director for Energy and Petroleum, Jackson Lojore, and Deputy Directors Geoffrey Eregae and Areman Elim"
12th March https://x.com/KPCGNOREB/status/1767523000402808945?s=20
"Turkana County has drafted Extractive Policy and they have already presented the Draft to the ministry of Natural Resources. The Kenya Oil and Gas Working Group Extractive Policy drafting team is led by our County representative "
https://turkana.go.ke/2024/03/08/county-government-seeks-to-finalise-extractive-policy/
There is definitely something goin on in Kenya
Now this is the kind of stuff we want to see that will turn sentiment positive
https://twitter.com/Africa24it/status/1767846317919727662
https://africa24.it/en/2024/03/13/kenyas-oil-future-tullows-investment-ignites-commercial-production-prospects/
I still think Kenya is imminent .......... obviously I'm biased though ;-)
It really amuses me that the Ghana tax dispute is a serious risk, however Kenya paying compensation to Tullow is a fantasy. Yet both will be decided in the same international court of arbitration.
Anyway.... my view is Kenya will happen. The signs are there.
Everything is relative and we were 22p in October last year and then back to 38p in December. That's not far off a 100% increase in share price in 2 months and you have to ask yourself ........ what spectacular event happened last year to result in a near 100% rise from 22p in October..... eeeeerrrrrmmmm nothing. No really ..... nothing happened ..... I'm serious ..... go look!
So today's price is only relevant if you have to buy or sell today. Also, remember Rahul will have around 20 million shares by 2025 .... so he will soon be very interested in the share price.
Thanks Andoman99. I've got too caught up in arguing with JMAX rather than just ignoring them. My posting is largely me thinking aloud and rationalising my decisions (good and bad)...... my therapy so to speak :-)
I didn't really want to filter anyone, however I've now filtered JMAX as it is totally pointless engaging with them and they feed off it.
halfpenny I personally don't think anything will come of it, as the sum they are suing for is ridiculous and the government and National Environment Management Authority is also being sued as well as Tullow. It's a bogus claim backed by someone with an agenda for sure.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/environment-climate/article/2001491234/oil-dream-residents-seek-pollution-billions
https://www.citizen.digital/news/tullow-oil-company-sued-by-13-children-over-environmental-degradation-in-turkana-n338029
Guess we'll probably never know, however would be very interesting to see who funds Kituo Cha Sheria and to know who put them up to this charade.
https://kituochasheria.or.ke/
Could be wrong, however seem to recall an article on this. I believe those default ratings were only temporary and an automatic result of buying back bonds. Also, not sure I buy the theory of large holders unloading, as we've not had an RNS from anyone over the reporting threshold for ages, besides Samuel buying more shares.
It's pretty clear this drop is sentiment driven. You can see it from the tone on this board and it's not the first time it's happened. You just have to look back to October last year when it went down to 22p for no specific reason. In the run up to the results and since, there has been a flood of negative press on Tullow. Most of the articles contain very little factually and just take a statement from the results and spin it negatively. Then we also have 13 year old school children now suing Tullow for £1.5 billion for environmental damage in Kenya. I mean really, where does that come from and why has it taken 12 years for them to suddenly realise there's environmental damage? It's certainly someone with an agenda behind that and can only be from one of two camps. One being the large shorts who don't want the price to go up and are concerned about the improving situation (perhaps a bit far fetched to be the case). The other being the environmental lobby who are concerned that Kenya is starting to look like it is going ahead. There was a lot of similar stuff in Uganda. Activist investors got Standard bank to pull the pipeline funding for environmental reasons and the Chinese ended up funding it at the last minute or it wouldn't have gone ahead. So this is quite possible. However, I digress a little, as I think the main driver for this drop is Jubilee production rumors. We hit 100kbopd in September and then production dipped again. The Ghana petroleum commission didn't update the September through December production figures until the day before the trading update at the end of January and we've had no production figures released for 2024 yet, despite being in March already. My take on this is that these numbers were intentionally held back in 2023 while the water injection issues were resolved and only released as production numbers were in the update so they had no choice. I think the same thing is happening now and they won't be released till the new wells (some or maybe all) are online and show strong production numbers. This uncertainty over Jubilee production is causing the share price decline and we won't see a turnaround till these numbers are out (assuming they are the right numbers of course). Would a director be buying more knowing that we're about to get absolutely hammered ..... I don't think so. So we just have to ride this one out again like we did in October last year. The question remains though .... how much more of this do I have to go through?
It's bogus ..... some of the people suing are 13 year old school kids. Either been put up to this by Greta or the shorts. More distraction to stop the share price rising.
Seakingalpha an interesting point about the trucks. Did a quick Google and seems one truck holds around 190 barrels of oil. So it would only take 105 trucks to move 20k barrels of oil. The catch is it's a 1,250 km trip from Lockichar to the Lamu Port and a 20 hour drive. At $80 a barrel, each truck would have a cargo of $15.2K worth of oil and 105 trucks would be moving $1.5m worth of oil a day. I guess you'd probably need 4 times the number of trucks given the distance to make sure you have a full 105 trucks arriving fully loaded at Lamu Port everyday. Would the economics work ..... I have no idea :-)
I also think what people are forgetting is that there's roughly 1.5 billion shares in issue. So if £50m were used to pay a dividend it would be around 3.3p per share. At the current share price this is more than a 10% return. Even at £1 a share this is over 3% which while not fantastic, isn't bad. However, add another £50m for Uganda contingent payments to this and it would be 6.6p which is over 20% at the current price or 6.6% at £1 a share. All of that without even touching what is generated by oil production.
There's definitely jam on the horizon. I just hope it comes before I need to sell at some point.
I really wonder if this story is a complete fabrication ....
https://www.citizen.digital/news/tullow-oil-company-sued-by-13-children-over-environmental-degradation-in-turkana-n338029
"The petition which was filed at Lodwar Court on Thursday seeks among other reliefs that Tullow Oil Company compensates the community for the loss of their animals which they argue has been occasioned by the waste dumped by the company to the environment."
This place is a hot, dusty hell hole with hardly any water and they're suing for £1.5B. That's certainly quite a few cows ....... I think they've been standing in the sun too long.
They're definitely very worried. In the 4 years I've held this share, I've never seen such a flood of negative BS articles out there. All since the results came out. Pretty much every excuse in the sun is being used now and they've even resorted to getting 13 year old school kids in Turkana Kenya to sue Tullow for environmental damage. I reckon they've got 4 months at best to wind up their shorts or it's going to get very ouchie for them.
Funny how vocal those with short positions have been up to the results and now we're up 1 or 2% on a day there's not a peep out of them.
The question remains what are the consultants doing and why the delay again. Rahul definitely didn't look concerned about it when talking about Kenya and look at the slide when he's talking about resources around 25 minutes in. Kenya is the biggest circle and even has a arrow indicating "Optionally to accelerate production and unlock value sooner". Something is brewing. Could it be he will just sell it .... couple of hundred million for it would go some way towards hitting his 800 to 1 billion debt target.
Maybe related or maybe not, but the Indonesians are in town again .....
https://twitter.com/EnergyMinK/status/1765401258209292638
Could they be getting involved? There was talk last year of them building a refinery.
LTH's need to watch the bit on Kenya at 25:30 to remind themselves why they're still holding. I think this presentation today was a lot more polished than prior years and much more professional. Rahul looked extremely relaxed and composed about Kenya unlike in prior presentations when he seemed nervous discussing it. Especially at the end of the bit on Kenya where he was almost laughing to himself. To me it showed a sign of relief that things were finally moving. I'm not a body language expert, however I've watched these presentations over the last few years and paid specific note to the bit on Kenya. I really think today was different and the biggest focus Kenya has been given in any presentation so far. Can't help thinking good things are about to happen there. Just my opinion of course.