Member Info for antonvb

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,992

Price: 253.80

RE: Breakout day?16 May 2018 13:40

By my standards I am deep in TLW - but I am long term and I am looking for 4.50minimum. For those who are prepared to wait this will come good - and we have so much of the black stuff still in the ground.

In and out of reality for years ... sad

I know I said I wasn't going to give them anymore attention ... Sorry.

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,994

Price: 223.40

RE: Re:TMF article27 Jul 2018 13:26

Hello people,

I am in for the long term. I see it like this - I am looking for around £5.00. For us to get there we obviously need the debt to keep going down and oil prices to stay $70plus. However, despite the rights issue, should this happen and with our reserves we could get quite a bit higher too.

JMAX I’d say my average is somewhere in the region of 5 to 10% of your average.

Right enough engaging with the attention seekers for one day.

Frogthemogg profits can come and go as many on here will agree.

Frogthemogg I hope that one day you find enough self esteem that you don’t have to keep trying to make yourself feel better by attempting to belittle others. I’m guessing me posting about shorts leaving the building is making you anxious about yours.

Pictet sneaking out the back door…. now below the reporting thresholds.

Fund % short Date changed

Pictet Asset Management Ltd 0.43% 11 Dec 2025

Pictet Asset Management Ltd 0.54% 10 Dec 2025

Pictet Asset Management Ltd 0.67% 9 Dec 2025

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,994

Price: 201.10

RE: A plodders view1 Feb 2018 19:52

Good Evening people :) GMAC , I am in a very similar situation to you with regard to TLW. In some ways I should have sold at 2.30plus but I didn't - even though I planned to trade a small amount - I will add more tomorrow and wait long term for a decent reward.

Ah ... so "the prevailing opinion" is yours, as ChatGPT thinks.....

TULLOW 2026 REFINANCING — PROBABILITY MATRIX (Realistic)

1️⃣ Full refinancing with no equity dilution

(e.g., new bond(s), amend & extend, plus hedging package, possibly Glencore-led)

Probability: 35%

2️⃣ Refinancing with mild equity dilution

(e.g., warrants to creditors, small equity raise, or part of a liability mgmt exercise)

Probability: 30%

3️⃣ Heavy equity dilution / debt-for-equity recapitalisation

(major restructuring, creditors take large share, equity largely wiped)

Probability: 20%

4️⃣ Asset sale or partial farm-out (reducing debt materially)

(monetizing Jubilee/TEN minority interests or future barrels)

Probability: 10%

5️⃣ Failure to refinance → distressed exchange → formal restructuring

(admin-like process but via scheme/CVA-equivalent)

Probability: 5%

Https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/12/12/tullows-bonds-wallow-at-72c-on-dollar-as-moodys-eyes-default/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“The prevailing opinion“ …. care to elaborate who is prevailing of this opinion?

Xxnjr I know he hasn't sold and the question shouldn't be interpreted literally. I was just asking to highlight how little they are now worth and how he, like so many others on here, will be feeling the pain of the current share price.

..... what Richard is going to buy with his £2,598.63 worth of share awards?

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,996

Price: 26.91

RE: Oil price7 Apr 2020 14:59

Ningaloo, I was in the same situation and I averaged down. However, I am now in Limbo - where I'm still at a loss, but there's no real value in averaging down anymore.

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,994

Price: 223.40

RE: Re:TMF article27 Jul 2018 13:26

Hello people,

I am in for the long term. I see it like this - I am looking for around £5.00. For us to get there we obviously need the debt to keep going down and oil prices to stay $70plus. However, despite the rights issue, should this happen and with our reserves we could get quite a bit higher too.

Wow JMAX ... I didn't realise you'd lost so much. I guess that explains a lot.

Frogthemogg the reality is that even if Tullow goes bust Samuel Dossou-Aworet will still be a billionaire, while you will always be a small minded troll.

Krakenoil you jumped ship when this was 20p around 5 years ago to move to Enquest, which subsequently halved in price while TLW trippled in price. You popping in here to deramp is pathetic. Even if Tullow goes bust it won't change the fact you sold out too early and could of sold TLW at 66p.

JMAX you will not see any directors buying now. They are in the process of major refinancing negotiations, so can't buy or sell unless they want to go to jail for insider trading.

Thanks xxnjr. Complicated stuff but does seem to explain the step change down in production. Seem to recall they delayed the shutdown (but might be wrong as haven’t double checked) perhaps for that very reason. Might have been better to refinance before the shutdown as going to the bargaining table producing 75kbopd would have been a lot stronger position to be in than the current 60kbopd.

In 5 years on this BB, as far as I can recall, I think only once has anyone ever admitted to being short on Tullow. That was our good friend HappyInvestor100 who was pushing the equity raise narrative back in 2020. Why is it that those short will never admit it and instead try pretend they are broadcasting public service announcements to save us. Everyone has an agenda, is pushing a narrative to suit it and it's pretty obvious if you're long or short.

This will either go up or down and one side will always win.