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Https://aje.news/fi60ux?update=4610759

Trump says US to lift naval blockade, Hormuz to open in both directions

In his post on Truth Social, Trump laid out numerous conditions he suggested Iran should accept as part of a deal, including:

Iran agreeing never to obtain a nuclear weapon

The Strait of Hormuz being open to traffic in both directions, without tolls

Iran removing any remaining mines left in the strait

The US unearthing and destroying Iran’s enriched uranium that is buried

Trump also said the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports.

I once asked JMAX a few years ago why every time someone posted something positive about Tullow he replied with something negative. His reply was that it was for "balance". So given JMAX likes to constantly boast how great he is and how spectacular his trades are doing, sometimes I like to post a reply for balance.

He enjoys the attention.

I'll let Loon respond to that one ;-)

But it's way off the recent year high of 4,470p. I thought you were fixated with year highs..... oh well, guess that 80p dividend will go a small ways to recouping some of your lost profits. But of course we all know you sold at the high, however because you're such a goo trader they're still paying you dividends ..... sigh!

Forget year end ... I'd be surprised if we're not 20p by of June ....

Starting to look like Trump dropped the oil price in preparation for his strikes on Iran yesterday.

Meanwhile ....

The world peace narrative continues.

Israel is bombing the hell out of Lebanon.

Iran’s supreme leader says US will no longer have ‘safe haven’ in the Gulf.

Rubio says the straight will be opened by force if necessary.

Trump says a deal that no one has seen or knows about will be signed any minute.

The Iranians now love the US and Israel and want to sign up to the Abrahams Accord.

The farce continues.

All the while Tullow is making more money than it dreamed of, while the share price languishes. Remember that the base case in the results was oil at $65. So when you're selling cargoes at double the base case price, it's akin to doubling production while barely increasing OPEX.

Going to be some very annoyed people who had stop losses triggered this morning.

US forces reported to have attacked sites in southern Iran

The US military conducted “strikes in southern Iran” on Monday, according to a report by a US broadcaster.

“US forces conducted self-defence today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson with the US military’s Central Command, was reported as saying by Fox News.

“Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins said, according to the report.

https://aje.news/u37s0w?update=4601092

As we reported earlier, Iranian media reported explosions in the port city of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, with the semi-official Mehr news agency reporting that the situation was under control.

Https://aje.news/u37s0w?update=4600989

Several explosions have been heard in the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas for reasons that remain unclear, according to the official Iranian news agency, IRNA.

Semi-official Mehr news agency reported that the situation was under control and there was no reason to worry.

About three explosions were heard according to Tasnim, another semi-official news agency, while ⁠the Fars news ⁠agency said similar sounds were heard close to Sirik and Jask near the ‌strategic waterway.

google.com/maps/place/Bandar+Abbas/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x3ef9d4119f611bfb:0x85c1a67fb6c37545?sa=X&ved=1t:155783&ictx=111

Kind of strange … with the news yesterday I was expecting the Chicken Little brigade to be out in full force telling us that this is going sub 10p again, especially given oil has dropped over 5% and is now under $100 again. Think the bank holiday today has been good timing, as gives time to digest the news on the deal that in the words of Trump ”nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet”….. i.e. realise he’s just making it up as he goes along again.

Strangely last week this wasn’t reacting to the dips in oil price during the week either and was holding steady around 17p. I do wonder if something is up. Two weeks to go to the AGM …. do wonder if the run up to that will see up cracking 20p. Got to have been a great first half this year for Tullow ….

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Iran-Deal-Delayed-as-Trump-Refuses-to-Rush-Agreement.html

I wouldn’t get too excited about the deal just yet…..

Trump: If I make a deal with Iran it will be ‘good and proper’, better than Obama’s

“If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by [former US President Barack] Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon”, the US president writes on his Truth Social platform.

“Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!”

His post comes amid sharp criticism from political opponents over reports that the deal does not include discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme.

https://aje.news/auncy3?update=4598612

notice who is missing from the list of countries on the call ...... iran.

i am in the oval office at the white house where we just had a very good call with president mohammed bin salman al saud, of saudi arabia, mohammed bin zayed al nahyan, of the united arab emirates, emir tamim bin hamad bin khalifa al thani, prime minister mohammed bin abdulrahman bin jassim bin jaber al thani, and minister ali al-thawadi, of qatar, field marshal syed asim munir ahmed shah, of ****stan, president recep tayyip erdoğan, of türkiye, president abdel fattah el-sisi, of egypt, king abdullah ii, of jordan, and king hamad bin isa al khalifa, of bahrain, concerning the islamic republic of iran, and all things related to a memorandum of understanding pertaining to peace. an agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the united states of america, the islamic republic of iran, and the various other countries, as listed. separately, i had a call with prime minister bibi netanyahu, of israel, which, likewise, went very well. final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. in addition to many other elements of the agreement, the strait of hormuz will be opened. thank you for your attention to this matter! president donald j. trump

i think i've become way to cynical, however i do wonder if trump is telling everyone a deal is imminent knowing the iranians won't agree the deal he's presented to them. then if he needs too, he can use iran's refusal to sign it as an excuse to escalate again or merely just keep the blockade in place while claim it's not his fault. or perhaps to drive the price of oil as low as possible for an escalation.... who knows.

either way, deal or no deal, we're still in for a few more months of disruption and higher oil prices. an interesting video to from aljazeera https://aje.news/auncy3?update=4597347

Https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/23/iran-war-live-tehran-says-diplomacy-continues-but-no-deal-yet-with-us

While Trump has tried to ratchet up pressure on Iran, “the geometry of the situation is really straightforward. Iran can outwait the United States”, according to professor Paul Musgrave of Georgetown University in Qatar.

“Iran has more advantages in this negotiation than the United States. The only card that President Trump has to play right now is to make the Iranians think that if they don’t come to a deal now, the pain will be greater,” he told Al Jazeera.

The price US citizens are paying at the fuel pump has increased by more than 50 percent since Trump started his war on Iran on February 28. Mid-term elections are also due later this year, with Republicans looking increasingly likely to lose control of both houses.

“Everybody knows that it’s President Trump who’s under the greater political pressure,” Musgrave said.

The danger is that we should be wary of all the talk of encouraging signs, Trump may restart the war to save face if he feels the US was “pushed around”, he warned.

Funny how you never remind us that you tipped FARN at 176p and UOG at 0.36p. How are those two doing for you?

Agree. Who in their right mind would short this now. The risk reward ratio seems to make it a bad choice. Possible it’s a hedged trade I guess. However, I think there is a bit of a vendetta against Tullow as shorts were badly burnt around 2015.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/bears-shorting-tullow-return-in-force-despite-odey-s-harsh-lesson-1.3026703

For me the more this gets shorted now the better. Come 10th of June or another spike up to $110 oil before then and there’ll be forced covering with share supply very tight.

I think we’re going to drift back up towards 20p next week as Trumps deal rhetoric will have completely worn off and he seems to push it hard every 2 to 3 weeks. I’m already seeing articles suggesting escalation.

https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15842337/Trump-preparing-fresh-round-strikes-Iran.html

And as for Helikon, think they are just praying for a miracle now.

Millennium Captiral increased their short yesterday. This is setting up nicely for a squeeze 🚀 with 2.55% reported short now.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/

Trump seriously miscalculated this whole thing. He's been treating it like a business deal. He assumed that because the US has the strongest military it'd be a walk in the park and Iran would be begging him to Make Iran Great Again. However, hating the US is in the Iranian DNA and they're fanatics. The longer this goes on for and the more the Iranians suffer, the more they will hate the US. That works in the Iranian leaderships favour. Also, the longer it goes on for and the more it financially affects households in the US, the more the US electorate will turn on Trump. The Iranians know this and will try ensure this goes on as long as possible. They're used to sanctions, hardship and sacrifice so for them this is nothing new.

Plan A is clearly not working and plan B is wishful thinking, as if the US can't force them to open the straight I can't see what NATO can do. So that only leaves Trump with 2 options. Withdraw and look a fool or bomb them into the stone age.

I'd say Iran have Trump by the short, orange and curlys.

Https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/22/iran-war-live-signs-of-progress-amid-efforts-to-reach-us-iran-peace-deal?update=4594030

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he spoke with NATO allies about possible challenges with reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking with reporters at the meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, Rubio said, “We have to have a plan B for if someone is shooting” in the Strait of Hormuz.

“At some point, ideally, they open the strait,” Rubio said of Iran. “Plan B needs to be, what if Iran says, ‘No, we refuse to open the Strait?'”

Countries including the US would need to “do something about it”, the secretary added, but stopped short of saying whether he thought NATO should be involved.

Rubio also reiterated earlier comments about the status of talks, claiming US negotiators were dealing with “difficult” people.

“There’s been some progress – we’re not there yet,” he said. “Hopefully that will change, but it may not.”

Too much moaning on here. Oil is flying today, as the Orange effect has worn off already. All things considering they (well RM and RG) have done a decent job in saving the company. Remember that this was 3.5p not so long ago and about to go bust. It was pulled back from the brink and that was before the war started and when oil was $65. Happy days ahead.

Iran and its adversaries both appear trapped in a “strange situation” in which neither side wants a return to war but both want to signal they are prepared to resume fighting if necessary, Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King’s College London, says.

Speaking about Iran’s response to the proposed 14-point plan, Geist Pinfold said Tehran likely feels “its hand is strengthening” and “time is on its side” because of its influence over the Strait of Hormuz.

He cautioned against maps that portray Iran as having total control over the strategic waterway, noting that the strait also borders Oman and the UAE and has a major US naval presence.

But he said Iran appears determined to cement its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/21/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-surrender-to-us-diplomacy-wiser-than-war?update=4590997