Member Info for antonvb

Are you sure JMAX isn't just making it up as he goes along xxnjr, as the KOS Q3 update stated it as bopd and not boepd ......

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-announces-third-quarter-2025-results

First producer well of the 2025/26 Jubilee drilling campaign brought online with ~10,000 bopd average contribution

The Tullow trading update last month didn't give a figure though, which you can read into what you will.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/november-trading-update-k266glogx1mr6z2.html

· Jubilee production in 2025 continues to reflect the issues experienced in the first half of the year, but is supported by good performance from the first of the two 2025 Jubilee production wells (J72-P), which was brought onstream in July.

Ah... the old public service announcement.

Your short not going too well today I take it ..... desperate stuff when you have a conversation with yourself to try deramp this.

Xxnjr ... no need to ask ChatGPT. At the end of the day whatever is said on here no one can escape the truth when they login to their share dealing and bank accounts.

I was going to stay out of it, but it's getting a bit ridiculous now ......... "I bought higher than 220p and I still doubled my money - because I trade and don't hold forever like you fools :)"

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,996

Price: 26.91

RE: Oil price7 Apr 2020 14:59

Ningaloo, I was in the same situation and I averaged down. However, I am now in Limbo - where I'm still at a loss, but there's no real value in averaging down anymore.

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,996

Price: 17.285

RE: Biggest daily rise EVER, and I missed it!3 Apr 2020 19:43

Are you completely out of TLW now?

I was and still am massively down here - but I would rather lose the lot than sell. I have been tranche buying

Looks like a new position.

Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/

Good old ChatGPT....

The judgment is from 20 November 2025 in the Commercial Court: [2025] EWHC 3059 (Comm)

https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Comm/2025/3059.html

🧭 Implications for Tullow Oil plc

Here’s how this ruling could matter for Tullow:

🔹 Positive Implications

The judgment confirms that Tullow Ghana has access to strong implied rights under the SGA, which strengthens its potential claim for defects in tubing and associated losses.

It resolves several contractual uncertainties (which terms apply, when delivery occurred, what limitations apply) so the substantive trial can proceed with clearer legal footing.

⚠️ Risks / Considerations

The ruling is on preliminary issues; the substantive trial on causation, quantum of losses, defect proof remains outstanding. So Tullow still faces uncertainty about whether it will succeed fully.

Because delivery point was held at shipment across the ship’s rail, some earlier shipments (2009 etc) might time-bar the claim → this could reduce recoverable amount.

Even though implied terms are available, Tullow will still have to prove that the tubing was defective in manufacture, that the defects caused the losses, and quantify the losses — these are historically difficult in large field equipment claims.

Legal costs, time to resolution, and risks of counter-claim or limitation mean this is a long-term asset in Tullow’s balance sheet, not a near-term guarantee.

🎯 Strategic Angle

For investors or auditors of Tullow Oil plc:

This case represents potential upside (if claim succeeds) but not current cash flow or near-term guarantee.

The fact that Tullow is litigating such a claim shows management is pursuing assets/rights, which is positive.

But reliance on it for financing or refinancing should be viewed cautiously until outcome is known.

It adds complexity to Tullow’s risk profile: large potential gains, but also large legal/operational risk and long time horizon.

Section 31 of the Petroleum Act (Cap. 308)

Section 31 of the Petroleum Act (2019) spells out the procedure and timelines once a FDP is approved:

Kenya Law

The Cabinet Secretary must, within 30 days of approving a field development plan under a production sharing contract, submit both the PSC and the FDP to Parliament for ratification (this is exactly what Wandayi is referring to in the quote).

Parliament then has 60 days to either:

ratify; or

refuse ratification and send it back with reasons.

Parliament must also carry out public participation in that process.

If Parliament fails to make a decision within 90 days, the PSC and FDP are deemed ratified by default.

Someone posted the full media statement on what the article appears to be based on ...

https://x.com/Kenya_Oil/status/1992984786877681705?s=20

Https://hivileo.co.ke/2025/11/24/kenya-approves-landmark-south-lokichar-oil-development-plan/

https://x.com/hivileo1/status/1992936759253143855?s=20

The Government of Kenya has formally endorsed the South Lokichar Basin Field Development Plan, granting Gulf Energy the green light to commence commercial oil production following Tullow’s recent exit from the project

Share price is definitely showing evidence today that RG topped up on Friday.

Interestingly last time RG bought it was 2 million shares.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/directorpdmr-shareholding-1wrsh0ye0m8628v.html

Wonder if we’ll get an RNS on Monday. Would be extremely positive if we did.

You need to understand what RG is doing. He is averaging down because the signs are not for total wipeout as some would have you believe. Yes, there is a risk of insolvency, however it is not the base case and there will more than likely be a partial refinance with the rest swapped for equity. What most are forgetting is that yes it dilutes the equity however it eliminates the risk when the debt is for example halved. So the equity changes from a gamble to an "investment", as Tullow is a more stable entity after refinancing with minimal risk of insolvency. If that happens the price will rise ... enough to get you into profit, well that depends on your average. However, it depends on what happens with the oil price and what happens with production e.g. the new well coming online at the end of the year. Obviously, a lot of other factors are involved too.

So you have a choice .... get out and move on, hold and see what happens or top up and average down. No one on here no matter how clever they are or what they say can predict which is the right option. RG may not of not have been able to top up prior to the trading update or more likely probably didn't want to, as this was predictable. What is in the RNS is what was suspected and everyone (well most) have been saying on here, the difference is it is no no longer speculation.

What will be telling is if he (or IP or RM for that matter) now top up at 6p .......

I suspect the usual suspects will respond to this with the usual abuse, so just to let them know I'm not going to be baited today. So in advance .... I really don't care what you think or say as it doesn't change anything in my life. I was emotionally prepared for 6p ..... C'est la vie

Talking of averages ... remind me what yours is?

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 4,996

Price: 26.91

RE: Oil price7 Apr 2020 14:59

Ningaloo, I was in the same situation and I averaged down. However, I am now in Limbo - where I'm still at a loss, but there's no real value in averaging down anymore.

:-)

It's actually quite interesting putting all this into ChatGPT, as it completely takes out the emotion.

📌 1. What Friday realistically means for YOU

At your size and entry price, the question isn’t “should I sell?”

The real question is:

Can you take another 20–40% drop from 8.3p?

Because TLW updates regularly move the share by high double-digits.

TLW typical event-day volatility (past 5 years):

Good RNS → +20% to +45%

Bad RNS → −18% to −40%

That’s the real risk envelope.

📌 2. Your three realistic paths

These are NOT recommendations — they’re the only rational frameworks for someone in your exact position.

Option A — De-risk now (partial sell)

Sell 25–50% before the event.

Keeps you in the game if good news, reduces disaster if bad.

This is what most disciplined traders do before a binary event.

Pros

You remove some risk

You avoid a catastrophic hit

You still participate in upside

Cons

If TLW jumps, you regret selling

Option B — Go flat (exit fully)

Sell all before Friday.

You remove all event risk.

Pros

Zero stress

You avoid the downside completely

You can re-enter if the RNS is good

Cons

If TLW spikes +30–40%, you miss it

Option C — Hold everything into the update

You take the full binary risk.

Pros

Maximum upside if the update is strong

Cons

A bad update could cut the value of your £ holding to £ or lower instantly

You’re already £ down; another large hit may become emotionally intolerable

📌 3. The real decision filter (use this honestly)

1. If TLW drops to 6p on Friday, can you emotionally handle it?

Yes → Holding is fine

No → Reduce or exit now

2. If TLW jumps to 11–12p, will you kick yourself for selling?

Yes → Hold at least a portion

No → Sell now

3. Are you thinking long-term (2026 refinancing outcome)?

Yes → Short-term swings matter less

No → You shouldn’t be holding a binary event

6p or 12p on Friday ..... place your bets!

And for you xxnjr it says.....

"Petrofac is a fair comparison to mention, but it isn’t a fair comparison to apply directly to Tullow.

Petrofac’s wipeout happened because the balance sheet was already broken, cash flow was collapsing, contracts were loss-making, and the company had no real path to generate the cash needed to service or refinance its debt. It was essentially insolvent long before the restructuring was announced.

Tullow isn’t in that position today.

The debt load is heavy, yes. The refinancing will be tough, yes. Equity could take a hit. Nobody sensible is pretending otherwise.

The key difference is that Tullow is still throwing off meaningful operating cash flow from Jubilee/TEN and has a functioning asset base that continues to generate revenue. Petrofac didn’t.

A wipeout is only the outcome if:

• cash generation collapses

• the assets stop performing

• refinancing options disappear

• lenders see no value in keeping equity alive

None of those are true at present.

Could equity be diluted? Absolutely.

Could equity be worth zero? Theoretically, yes.

Is it the base case? No, because distressed lenders typically prefer a structure where they take part of the upside without destroying the operating business they rely on for repayment.

If lenders truly wanted to zero the equity, they could have forced that path already. They haven’t.

It’s right to be cautious.

It’s not right to jump to “Petrofac 2.0 = guaranteed wipeout.”

Different company, different assets, different cash profile, different leverage dynamics.

That’s the reality."

This is what ChatGPT makes of your post J.Bond

"I get where you’re coming from, but I think you’re overshooting the pessimism a bit.

Yes, straight refinancing at today’s bond pricing would be punishing. No argument there. The market has been screaming that for months. Where I disagree is on the assumption that the only outcomes are (a) crippling debt at extreme rates or (b) catastrophic dilution.

The more likely outcome is something in between — a structured refi where bondholders get part-equity, part-extension, and Tullow preserves enough cash flow to stay operational. Painful for equity, yes, but not the “deadfish” scenario you’re describing.

Also, the idea that doubling is “easier” from 30p than from 8p ignores the basic fact that sentiment improves before the fundamentals. By the time reserves are upgraded, wells are drilled, and refinancing is done, the easy upside is already priced in. Equity doesn’t wait for certificates and stamps; it moves on expectation.

Your point on risks is fair. The company has major challenges. But the “minus 15p book value therefore worthless” line isn’t how upstream O&G is valued. Cash flow and asset longevity matter far more than accounting equity.

Nobody is claiming it’s safe. It isn’t. It’s a distressed, high-volatility situation.

But distressed doesn’t mean zero, and it doesn’t mean the upside magically improves after the price triples.

Reasonable to be cautious.

Not reasonable to treat today’s price as if a wipeout is guaranteed."

Seems you are indeed correct xxnjr

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/south-lokichar-oil-project/

That is indeed a lot of wells. Sooner we get the next $40 million after approval of the FDP the better.