Member Info for antonvb

Xxnjr 120kbopd would be 40 to 60 wells if they’re in the 2 to 3kbopd range. So they’d have to drill roughly 6 every 40 days for a year to drill 60 wells. Not impossible I’d have thought.

The challenge is still the pipeline as that will take time to build. The other thing I wonder about is have EPRA approved the FDP, as I seem to recall EPRA had to approve and then parliament. I don’t see anything about EPRA approving. Hopefully we’ll actually get some information with Fridays update. Seem to find myself saying that every update.

NTV Kenya: Ministry of Energy approves Gulf Energy’s plan to begin commercial production of oil in Turkana

https://youtu.be/SL--Vkhu8kQ?si=HVHX4R2WAbfvpl45

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/mps-to-decide-kenya-s-oil-fate-after-wandayi-s-nod-5264072

Parliament holds the key to Kenya’s quest to start commercial production of crude oil after the Ministry of Energy approved Gulf Energy’s commercialisation plan for the Turkana oil project.

https://x.com/MzalendoWatch/status/1989216445054521702?s=20

Parliament holds the key to Kenya’s quest to start commercial production of crude oil after the Ministry of Energy approved Gulf Energy’s commercialisation plan of the Turkana oil project. via @NationAfrica

Sorry but your argument isn’t logical. If the ship is sinking you stay on it until the last second unless you have a lifeboat. He has no new job and you say he got a payout, so clearly was made redundant. I suspect they’re getting rid of the dead wood. Cutting costs and hopefully putting together a team that can actually produce results instead of merely presiding over decline.

And don't forget about the other contingent payments too .....

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/8717/4289/1610/Tullow_2024_FY_Results_Presentation_-_FINAL.pdf

Uganda contingent payment (1)

c.$15-47 million per annum at plateau, at $70-100/bbl

Uncapped oil price upside for the full duration of the licence

Dussafu, Gabon contingent payment (2)

• c.$5 million maximum per annum

• $24 million maximum over five-year period after trigger

1 Based on Brent linked contingent payment of upstream revenues from the acquired interests (28.33% post-Ugandan Government back-in) and at gross plateau rate of c.230 kbopd

2 TRACS YE24 strip price of 2025 - $71.84/bbl, 2026 - $69.82/bbl, 2027 - $68.73/bbl, 2028 - $68.21/bbl and 2029 - $69.57/bbl. Inflated at 2% pa from 2029

2 Based on 15% of net cash flow, contingent on production threshold of 33 kbopd for a period of 60 days post first oil from the Hibiscus and Ruche discoveries and Brent $55/bbl per calendar year average

Under favourable oil price (>US$70/bbl), Tullow could receive ~ US$45-50 million per annum from Uganda contingent payments at plateau.

Under moderate price (US$62-70/bbl) it might receive ~ US$20-30 million pa (assuming 1.25% rate).

If oil averages ≤ US$62/bbl, no payment is triggered.

The Keyna SPA RNS stated "US$40 million payable at the earlier of Field Development Plan (FDP) approval or 30 June 2026". This article says

https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2025/11/parliament-to-ratify-turkana-oil-gas-extraction-deal-by-gulf-energy/

"“In accordance with Section 10(j) of the Petroleum Act, 2019, I have approved the Field Development Plan for the Turkana oil presented by Gulf Energy E&P B.V.,” Wandayi said during a visit to Turkana.

“I will now proceed within 30 days to present the FDP to Parliament for ratification, under Article 71 of the Constitution,” he added."

There are clips of this on YouTube, however not in English.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn7ZK5cFwjQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_05em0ak_tE

I'm pretty sure EPRA had to approve it before parliament, however I don't see any indication that EPRA have approved. So does this all mean it is approved and we'll be getting the next $40 million imminently or will it be in the next 30 days or so after parliament approves. And of course is this the final piece of the puzzle for the refinancing (in whatever form that may be)?

Gees there’s some crazy conspiracy theories on here. The update RNS will be released at 7am on Friday. Plenty of time for the market to react and for anything to be published in the press. They’re not using Gutenberg printing press any more.

Decided to check the website and no mention of a November trading update. We've had one every year in November for the past few years so wonder if we'll have one this year?

I did however find this under tullow's paid analyst research which is interesting......

https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/analyst-coverage/

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6217/5915/9368/TLW_update_29_9_25.pdf

"With Brent at US$69/bbl we are increasingly confident in our above consensus forecast for the oil price. We make no changes to our forecasts, and our risked net asset value calculation remains at 53p, almost five times the current share price. Forward multiples remain exceptionally low, and a successful refinancing would remove a key uncertainty that should allow the shares to trade significantly higher, we expect."

and

"Tullow remains focused on refinancing its balance sheet during 2025, which we expect would remove a key uncertainty for investors and potential investors."

It always annoys me that Tullow is the operator, however we always have to wait for the KOSMOS update to get any detail on Jubilee.

Where have I heard this before ... :-)

"Q: How is the Jubilee field performing, and what are the expectations for 2025? A: Andrew Inglis, CEO, mentioned that Jubilee is expected to exit 2025 at around 70,000 barrels of oil per day. With additional wells planned, production could reach around 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, considering a 20% decline rate."

If they could get it to 100 kbopd it would be a game changer for Tullow. Can't be impossible as it was done by Rahul in 2023, however he couldn't sustain that level and it fell back after a few months. I'm hoping they've at least stabilised Jubilee, as production in May and June was just over 60 kbopd and KOSMOS announced that July, August and September averaged 62.5 kbopd. So that seems like stable production for the past 5 months after the shutdown.

Unlike on here :-)

Looks like drilling and survey are underway or just about to get underway.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:733526/zoom:9

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:145608/zoom:10

No worries. Just hope it is an incentive for him to keep Tullow out of the hands of the bond holders. Rahul had similar incentives though and seemed to f*** it all up, turning his into a fraction of what they could of been worth. So who knows.

Where do you see that?

The RNS states the price as Nil and specifies the "Nature of the transactions" as "Grant of nil price options at £0.1068 per Share pursuant to the 2023 ESP.". So that means:

🔹 “Grant of nil price options”

A nil price (or nil-cost) option means the recipient does not have to pay anything to receive the shares once they vest.

In other words, if the performance conditions are met, the person gets the shares for £0 per share — no exercise cost.

It’s a performance-based reward, not a purchase.

🔹 “£0.1068 per Share”

This is the market price of Tullow’s shares on the day the options were granted.

It’s not the amount they pay — it’s recorded to show what the shares were worth when the award was made.

For example, if 6,788,390 shares were granted at £0.1068, the total face value of the award is roughly £725,000 at grant, but that’s only potential value — it’s not guaranteed or cash.

No, he is getting them for free as they are nil cost. Look at the price in the RNS.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/directorpdmr-shareholding-tsmolotwfewv4br.html

So Ian Perks was appointed CEO on the 5th of September 2025 and on the 3rd of October he was awarded 6,788,390 shares at nil cost option. It would be useful to know what his package is, as he has just been awarded circa £700,000 worth of shares less than a month after starting. You would assume he would be very familiar with the companies financial position when accepting the role and agreeing his remuneration package. So if a large portion consists of share awards, you'd assume he is fairly confident that that there'll be no dilution and Tullow will continue as a solvent entity. On the other hand he may have been given a large salary knowing that these share awards wouldn't amount to much. However, if that were the case why bother giving them to him?

Seems inconclusive. However if you add to that the fact that 1 month before his appointment RG bought 2 million shares surely it suggests there is still value in the equity.

I asked ChatGPT to find out the details of Ian Perks package:

"I couldn’t find any public disclosure of a complete remuneration package (salary + bonus + long-term incentives) for Ian Perks in his incoming role as CEO of Tullow Oil plc beyond the following confirmed items:

✅ What is publicly disclosed

Ian Perks is appointed CEO of Tullow Oil, effective 15 September 2025.

On 7 October 2025, Tullow announced that Perks was granted nil-cost share options (6,788,390 ordinary shares of £0.10 each) under the 2023 Executive Share Plan.

The share options vest subject to Total Shareholder Return (TSR) performance targets over a three-year period (2025-2028) and then a further two-year holding period.

⚠️ What is not disclosed (yet)

Specific base salary for Ian Perks in his CEO role.

Target bonus or maximum bonus for 2025-26 or beyond.

Any other long-term incentive plan (LTIP) details other than the options above.

Any guaranteed payments, signing bonus, or relocation benefits.

The detailed targets for vesting of the nil-cost options (beyond the broad TSR mechanism).

The remuneration breakdown for the first year (2025/26) nor the “package” headline figure.

🧭 My assessment

From what is available, the key elements are the nil-cost options granted ahead of his start. This suggests Tullow is focusing his remuneration on long-term value creation (via equity) rather than disclosing a large upfront salary in the announcement. Given the company’s financial and refinancing pressures, aligning the CEO’s rewards with TSR makes strategic sense."

It's on their Facebook page with lots of photos of it.

https://www.facebook.com/TullowGhanaLtd/

Thanks xxnjr. Looks like it's on it's way ....

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:145608/zoom:10

Https://s201.q4cdn.com/439848451/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/FSR-102725.pdf

Noble Venturer:

Total contract value of $171 million for estimated 360 days across two phases. Plus 3 x two-well priced options.

Day Rate: Undisclosed

Start Date: Nov-25

End Date: Aug-26

All fair and well. It’s just a shame you called it after you bought in at £2.50 in 2018.

YWSML :)

Been wondering when your Mom is going to call......