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I'm curious to get your opinion on the latest bond tender offer. I don't have much knowledge of this and am curious to try and understand what Rahul is trying to achieve here. I know in June he bought back around $166m, achieving a weighted average purchase price of 60.05%. That's all well and good, as at the time the bonds were looking very risky and I can understand why some might want to get out and he saved Tullow around $86m. However, now the 2025 and the 2026 seem to be over 90% and while the 2025 offer is by Dutch auction the 2026 offer is at a maximum of 89.125%. As Tullow now has the Glencore facility to cover the 2025's and FCF is looking promising for 2026 refinancing. Why would anyone take their offer, as surely you make more with interest payments and just waiting till they are settled and surely there is not a lot of saving for Tullow with the interest rate on the Glencore finance facility? Is Rahul doing this knowing it is probably not going to be successful, however knowing it will push up the bond prices making it easier to renegotiate their refinancing (surely it would be easier when the bonds are close to 100% as opposed to in their 60's or 70's). Or will he actually achieve a saving and is this a good offer for bond holders.
Thanks
Https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1726540937017557174?s=20
I know nothing, however I'm convinced oil is not weak and the US are manipulating the data to drive the price down. Every time before/when they announce that they're going replenish some of the oil from the SPR sold off last year we see a flood of very bearish news on oil demand and the price drops below $80. It then very soon goes back up over $80. You can only artificially keep the price down temporarily before the reality kicks in. They released over 220 million barrels of oil last year and not only does that now need to be replaced, this will happen while we have 220 million less barrels of oil being released into the market.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-buys-12-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2023-11-14/
https://www.energy.gov/ceser/spr-quick-facts
It can't be coincidence...twice recently we had a rise of 5% and the next day the rise was reversed and a short reduction was reported. Yesterday a 10% rise with only a 5% reversal today and another short reduction of 0.11% reported. Can't recall the other percentage short reductions, however it certainly looks like a small short reduction of 0.11% resulted in at least a 5% increase in the share price on the day. Going to be very very very interesting if Pictet needs to close their 1.99% short in a hurry.
Interesting times ahead me thinks. GLALTH
Got to sell on a blue day and buy on a red day .... not the other way round. I very nearly sold yesterday just before close, as this was a bit predictable. However, equally it could of gone up today and I'd have looked a bit stupid again, so didn't want to risk it. If we do get to 60p plus in the next few months, then dipping in and out for small gains is risky and easier said than done. On the flip side, if we're still 30p by the end of next year then you'd be kicking yourself for not trading.
What do you do? What do you do?
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6592d8ba-83ec-11ee-ab78-b8f8e234f1ae?shareToken=68bae705f4158e4d857c1945ae51c18b
Nice to see positive press .... and there's a lot of it out there since the update.
You're like a stuck record ......
Share price up 10% on "Full year net oil production is expected to be marginally below guidance of 58-60 kbopd" and Jubilee production up 50% from the low in May ...... nope, he ain't done nuttin'.
like i always say ...sentiment is everything and i think it is finally turning. getting very hard to be negative about tullow now and people are running out of reasons to **** it off.
whatever happens tomorrow, i'm definitely enjoying today. may even go to costco and invest in a bottle of bubbly for tonight.
Might not be far off 40p by close if this keeps up ...... be interesting to see if it drops back tomorrow? If it is the shorts closing, what are the institutions going to do with the returned shares. When they start holding them and not dumping them it will get really interesting.
i don't know.... recently every time prior to the announcement of a small reduction in one of the big shorts we've had a 5% rise just before it was reported. it happened twice, if the 5% rise and the short reduction are in fact tied is unknown. however, i think what we know now is that it is no longer worth being short and is now very risky, as to quote rahul .... "debt is no longer an issue". so the only think you could hope for being short is sub $50 oil, however we have hedges and given the **** show that the world is at the moment, probably unlikely. so what will happen when both of the big shorts start buying back, pi's start coming back in and dare i say it .... institutions start increasing positions. been quite some time since anyone holding above the reporting threshold has reported a buy or sell.
i wouldn't be surprised if we're knocking on or above 40p by friday ..... not impossible now.
"Don't think he would just pay another 5% till 2025 for the hell of it. I wouldn't be surprised if we get another RNS soon or something with the update on Wednesday."
I was right for once....damn it's taken me over 1000 posts to get one right.....lol