Member Info for antonvb

£250 million is less than 20p a share. Can't see the major holders agreeing to that.

Oil might be $65 today, however that is not a constant and at some point in the future it will spike again. Plus any bad years should be survivable due to hedging. If oil averages $100 for a year ....

40kbopd * 365 *$100 = $1.46 billion

So just imagine what one good year will do for Tullow and that doesn't even take into account increases in production, gas sales or contingent payments.

Pictet reduced again by 0.28% ..... and rumour has it they're bond holders. Yup refinancing incoming......... just a shame they're getting off lightly.

Harrycarter ..... Them single figures…not sure them is a coming.

Exactly Supercooper …. before the last refinance we had the same D4E discussion on here and it never materialised. That is the one benefit of the current share price. At a current valuation of £150 million no one in their right mind would swap say $500 million debt for £75 million equity. Why would you do that when you can get over $100 million a year in interest payments by simply extending the loan.

I still think the refinance has been agreed in principle subject to the asset sales, or at the very least they have some options lined up. RM has delivered and was extremely confident when presenting that the refinancing would be done……in RM I trust and time will tell I guess.

Indeed Credit_Limit….. they are getting let off the hook.

Millennium closed their short completely and went from 0.51% to 0.00%. In total 3 of the reported shorts reduced by 0.84% on Friday 19th. That is the day where we had the 33 million uncrossing trade and a total volume of 37 million. Can’t be a coincidence all 3 of them reducing on the same day. Something is up….. surely?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/

Millennium closed their short completely. Down 0.00%

Qube have finally done some research and reduced too. As have Pictet.

Refinancing incoming…..

Xxnjr he has called me a liar countless times on here. You won’t see them in his posting history though as the moderator of this forum deletes them when they are reported.

As the LSE don’t seem to be taking it seriously, if he continues I will take necessary action as per the legislation I quoted in my previous post.

Give you are not anonymous you might want to read this and reconsider constantly slandering and harassing me.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2023/50/contents

I’d also like to remind you that you’re not protected by where you are domiciled as it is covered.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/100/regulation/2/made

I mean RG and not RM

Supercooper… agree regarding El Chairman. I had high hopes for him when he was appointed. However besides drearily chairing the AGM every year he doesn’t seem to have done anything. Maybe he’s in the way out.

I thought It was good to see RM there and getting involved. First time I’ve seen hive actively getting involved in a Tullow meeting. I’m sure he wants his holding back into profit. Wonder what the real purpose of the meeting was, as would think the president of Ghana would have better things to do than meet with the new Tullow CEO just because Tullow has new CEO.

Https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

Thanks Supercooper. Learnt something new today, although I preferred thinking it was my conspiracy theory …… lol.

Interestingly ChatGPT says long term traders usually ignore it unless there’s an unusually large movement. I’d classify 33 million shares as an unusually large movement. So perhaps something is afoot after all …..

✅ Triple Witching:

Occurs four times a year—on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December—when three types of derivatives expire simultaneously:

1. Stock index futures

2. Stock index options

3. Stock options

📈 How It Affects Shares

• Increased trading volume: Because institutional investors and traders are adjusting or closing out large positions.

• High volatility: Due to the need to hedge or roll over positions.

• Temporary price swings: Especially near the close of trading on witching days.

💡 Should You Trade on Witching Days?

• Short-term traders might capitalize on volatility.

• Long-term investors usually ignore it unless there’s an unusually large market movement.

• Be cautious: Price action can be erratic and not tied to fundamentals.

Picket reduced by 0.01% on the 18th. Could be related.

It is interesting that they are reducing, as if I remember correctly they also hold Tullow bonds and t has often been said they hedge by going long on the bonds and short the equity. Are they finally closing their position as the refinancing is imminent ……

Thanks xxnjr. Was hoping it'd be in the 70's, so fingers crossed it's on the higher end of mid 60's.

Https://x.com/EPRA_Ke/status/1968518519848415739

During a panel discussion on opportunities in East Africa’s upstream petroleum space at the ongoing Africa Oil Week in Accra, Ghana, our Director of Petroleum and Gas, Eng. Edward Kinyua (second from right), reaffirmed @EPRA_Ke commitment to fostering an enabling and predictable regulatory environment.

He noted that @EPRA_Ke recently subjected seven draft upstream and midstream petroleum regulations to public participation. Once gazetted, these regulations will enhance transparency, environmental responsibility, and investor confidence in Kenya’s petroleum sector.

Eng. Kinyua further highlighted that Gulf Energy is expected to submit a Field Development Plan (FDP) for the South Lokichar Basin, marking a key milestone for Kenya’s upstream operations.

He stated that @EPRA_Ke is in the process of establishing a petroleum data center, strengthening governance and improving access to vital information for investors and policymakers.

Our good friends at Stiefel are at it again ... I don't have access to read it, however no doubt a negative take on things. Anyone have access?

https://x.com/StifelEuropeFI/status/1968688996898255150

StifelEuropeFI @StifelEuropeFI

A new credit review on Kosmos Energy,Tullow Oil PLC (KOS 4/26,KOS 5/27,KOS 3/28,KOS 10/31,TLWLN 5/26) is now available at: https://stifelfi.bluematrix.com/pdf/fdLiPkKJ

Https://www.facebook.com/share/p/15aW171Xag/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Following his recent appointment, our new Chief Executive, Ian Perks met with President John Dramani Mahama at the Office of the Presidency in Accra yesterday.

Discussions centred on Tullow’s investment priorities and commitment to creating long-term value for Ghana and our stakeholders. We also highlighted our appreciation for government’s continued support of our operations. Energy Minister John Abdulai Jinapor highlighted Tullow’s vital role in sustaining Ghana’s energy needs through regular gas supply.

Ian was joined by Tullow Board member Roald Goethe, Ghana Managing Director, Jean-Medard Madama, and Deputy Managing Director, Cynthia Lumor, alongside Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson.

Millennium International Management LP increased their short. High risk to short at this price....... going to get very very interesting when that refinancing RNS drops.

Xxnjr yes I saw another one yesterday with Jubilee as the destination. 3 tankers now….. surely it must mean we’re up to 100kbopd again.

Don’t worry I’m just joking :-). Fingers crossed we get an offload sooner and production is closer to 70 than 60.

Well done Flavius.

Going bust is always a possibility and why the share price is 10p. Will Tullow go bust….. I very much doubt it. The hedges are there to protect against that. People are very vocal about how much the hedges cost Tullow when the oil price is high, however never seem to mention them when it drops.

And as to the bond holders taking over….. people seem to forget that the equity is only worth £150 million, so no chance of swapping debt for equity. They would do better just to extend the loan and keep getting a juicy interest rate until it is eventually paid off. At some point within the next 10 years oil will be over $100 again and there’s so many other potential catalysts. Plus the current bond holders are not the only ones who may lend to Tullow, so doubt they hold all the cards.

RG has been prepared to buy shares, so that is a very good sign too. However, for me the biggest indicator is RM stated he is confident that the refinancing will happen and he has delivered so far.

In RM I trust and what will be will be ……

Flavius you have mentioned manipulation on here a lot, so it shouldn't surprise you. As you say though, these small swings in share price don't mean much in the longer term. They can manipulate the share price a few percent in either direction at will and have been doing so for years now, however they cannot control the longer term fundamentals.