Member Info for antonvb

It is very interesting that Option 1 from ChatGPT aligns exactly with the $1.1 billion figure that Tullow quoted in their last update……

🟢 Scenario 1 – Successful Full Refinancing (base case)

Probability: ≈ 55 %

Mechanics:

• Tullow completes asset sales (Gabon $300 m, Kenya $120 m + contingent) by early 2026.

• Uses proceeds + cash flow to repurchase ≈ $400 m of 2026 bonds.

• Launches a new 5-year secured bond (~$900 m) at ~10–11 % coupon, replacing the remainder.

• RCF renewed with similar size ($250 m) and lower margin.

Outcome:

• Net debt drops to ~$1.1 billion.

• Interest expense roughly flat despite lower leverage.

• Share price sentiment improves → TLW equity could re-rate toward £0.40–£0.50 (from ~£0.27).

Signals to watch:

✅ Formal completion of Gabon sale

✅ New credit-rating review (Moody’s/S&P)

✅ Announcement of new secured notes or bank mandate

⸻

🟠 Scenario 2 – Partial or Distressed Restructuring

Probability: ≈ 30 %

Mechanics:

• Asset-sale proceeds delayed or below expected value.

• Oil prices stay < $65/bbl → free cash flow tight.

• Tullow proposes an exchange offer: extend 2026 maturity to 2028 and raise coupon → bondholders accept to avoid default.

• May require equity injection or warrants to bondholders.

Outcome:

• Net debt still around $1.4 billion.

• Leverage ≈ 2.5× EBITDA.

• Market views it as “managed distress”; shares volatile £0.15–£0.30.

Signals to watch:

⚠️ Reports of “exchange offer” or “consent solicitation”

⚠️ Appointment of restructuring advisors (e.g., Rothschild, Lazard)

⚠️ Bond trading below 70 cents on the dollar

⸻

🔴 Scenario 3 – Failed Refinancing / Coercive Deal

Probability: ≈ 15 %

Mechanics:

• Asset sales collapse or blocked; oil < $60/bbl.

• Bondholders refuse extension; Tullow forced into in-court process or coercive restructuring (haircut + debt-for-equity).

• Glencore facility tightened; liquidity squeeze in 2026.

Outcome:

• Equity largely wiped out; bondholders take control.

• Operations continue (Jubilee cash-flow positive) but under new ownership.

• Similar precedent: Premier Oil → Harbour Energy (2021).

Signals to watch:

🚨 Bond price < 50

🚨 Covenant-waiver requests or missed interest payments

🚨 Ratings downgrade to “CCC-/D”

It's funny how 10p is a psychological milestone. If Tullow refinance, or go bust for that matter, it really won't make a lot of difference if you top up at 9.9p or 10.1p.

One thing I would say regarding the talk of the bond holders taking Jubilee. Doubt that would ever happen. If it's not worth $1.3 billion now why would they want it, as would be better to hold and make a healthy interest until the bonds are repaid sometime in the future or sell your stake in the bonds once they are extended. On the flip side if it is worth $1.3 billion then why wouldn't they be able to refinance. Far too much emphasis is placed on the price of oil on the day, rather than what the price of oil will be over the next 5 years. And of course there other other potential lenders out there besides the current bond holders, so they are not the only option. RM has delivered on everything he promised this year and think he will deliver on the refinancing.

N-n-n-n-nineteen, nineteen

N-nineteen, nineteen

The share price should be around 30p

Why…. because I say so.

Zzzzzzzzzz……

Got the deramping team working the weekend to make public service announcements.

Not necessarily. Tullow’s not at the point where they’d need to swap assets for debt. Their Ghana fields are still throwing off strong cash flow, and with hedges in place plus stable production guidance, they’ve got room to manage the balance sheet. A field-for-debt swap would only ever happen if lenders thought they could run it better — and that’s not the case here.

The bonds holding around 85 actually shows decent confidence in the credit. If the market genuinely thought they were in trouble, those would already be in the 60s. I think investors are betting that oil doesn’t stay at $60 for long — it’s still above Tullow’s breakeven, and any move back toward $70–75 would quickly strengthen both cash generation and sentiment.

Https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/industry/gulf-submits-revised-plan-for-turkana-oil-project-5222310#google_vignette

Fingers crossed.

Https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1976579198623076376

There's a big difference between 36p and 0.36p. To help you understand ......

The main difference is their value: 0.36p is less than one penny, while 36p is more than one penny. In currency, a decimal point in front of the "p" symbol is used to indicate a fraction of a penny.

Value comparison

0.36p is equal to a little more than one-third of one penny. Since there are 100 pence in one pound, 0.36p can also be written as £0.0036. This is a very small amount, often used for things with a negligible cost like small-data usage.

36p is equal to thirty-six pennies, or 36/100ths of a pound. It can also be written as £0.36, which is more than one-third of a pound.

Practical example

Imagine you are buying something that costs £1.00.

If you paid 36p, you would still owe the shop 64p.

If you paid 0.36p, you would still owe the shop £0.9964.

Right. Back to ignoring you........

Https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Ghana-to-benefit-fully-from-Tullow-operations-CEO-assures-President-Mahama-2004378

Article says drilling of the new well is due to start in November.

You do have to wonder about some peoples mental health.....

It is very telling when someone constantly reminds you that they first bought FRES at £6, yet never tells you what their TLW or UOG average is. Well we know they were ramping UOG at 0.36p and the price is more than halved since then. We also know they're obsessed with TLW and have been in Tullow since the glory days. Their negativity, bitterness and obsession on here comes from the fact they've been holding TLW since this was well over £10 and been decimated. Post whatever you want on here to cheer yourself up and to make yourself feel better if it helps you deal with your losses.

However, no matter what anyone posts on here their share dealing account and internet banking never lies.

Https://www.newsghana.com.gh/tullow-oil-awards-share-options-to-top-executives/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Refinancing brewing ....

Nineteen n-n-n-n-n-ninteen

N-n-n-n-n-ninteen, nineteen

Pictect gone from 1.50% to 0.71% short in less than 2 weeks. Getting out of jail free at this price. I think it is significant though.....refinancing got to be inbound.

Been a while since I ramped this ... so here's some food for thought.

If you buy at 10p today and one day in the near future Tullow Oil stabilises and pays a 1p dividend annually, that is a 10% return on your investment every year. It would cost a mere £15 million pounds for them to pay a 1p dividend.

Or you could just rather take the time to look at slide 6 of the report

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/2517/5888/7513/1H_2025_Reserves_Report.pdf

From yesterday’s RNS….

Ian Perks, Chief Executive Officer of Tullow, commented:

"The successful completion of this transaction marks a significant milestone for the company and the achievement of another one of our key 2025 strategic priorities. The use of proceeds helps to further strengthen our balance sheet and I would like to thank the team for their hard work and commitment, which have helped position the company strongly as we look to refinance our capital structure this year.

In Vietnam the average age of the combat soldier was nineteen.

N-n-n-n-nineteen

I waited a long time for this. Not really the circumstances I was hoping for it to happen under ... C'est la vie

Refinancing RNS next

19p

US$575 million in cash, consisting of US$500 million on completion of the Transaction and US$75 million at FID of the Upstream and Midstream Segments.

Contingent annual payments to be paid on upstream revenues from the Uganda Interests (reduced to 28.3334% following exercise by Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) of its back-in rights – see below) calculated as follows: (i) no payment if the average annual Brent price is less than or equal to US$62 per barrel, (ii) 1.25% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than US$62 per barrel or (iii) 2.5% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than US$70 per barrel.

The reimbursement of joint venture costs incurred and paid by Tullow Uganda from the Effective Date to completion of the Transaction in respect of the Uganda Interests.

I don’t think it was RD that sold Uganda …. either way though at the time Tullow was on its knees with its pants down. Was a case of sell it or go bust.

Https://hapakenya.com/2025/09/18/epra-urges-africa-to-embrace-technology-for-upstream-petroleum-operations/

https://x.com/EPRA_Ke/status/1969028978569884115

On the sidelines of Africa Oil Week, our officers are currently engaging in an information exchange program with officials from the @PetroleumGhana in Ghana.

Our delegation, led by Director General Mr. Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria, is holding discussions aimed at strengthening knowledge and collaboration in upstream petroleum operations.

Kenya is currently fast-tracking the Early Oil Project, and this engagement provides an important opportunity to learn from the @PetroleumGhana’s experience in managing upstream operations

https://x.com/EPRA_Ke/status/1968518519848415739

During a panel discussion on opportunities in East Africa’s upstream petroleum space at the ongoing Africa Oil Week in Accra, Ghana, our Director of Petroleum and Gas, Eng. Edward Kinyua (second from right), reaffirmed @EPRA_Ke commitment to fostering an enabling and predictable regulatory environment.

He noted that @EPRA_Ke recently subjected seven draft upstream and midstream petroleum regulations to public participation. Once gazetted, these regulations will enhance transparency, environmental responsibility, and investor confidence in Kenya’s petroleum sector.

Eng. Kinyua further highlighted that Gulf Energy is expected to submit a Field Development Plan (FDP) for the South Lokichar Basin, marking a key milestone for Kenya’s upstream operations.

He stated that @EPRA_Ke is in the process of establishing a petroleum data center, strengthening governance and improving access to vital information for investors and policymakers.