Member Info for Andyagogo

There may be a re-test of the low and possibly an undercut in Q1 '16. Not a prediction btw as clearly have no crystal ball. However we may be nearing the beginning of the end in this huge % decline IMV. Longer term looks very bullish on my take, please DYOR, as always and all just IMV only.

Margined shorts are in a whole world of pain this morning, shame. Best not to get carried away, this may be a temporary seasonal bounce.

Well I am felling jolly this AM, locked in some nice profit.

That big expansion first requires further Government permits, then the revised costings need to be presented to the RIO BOD and signed off. Work may only start towards the end of 2016 and any associated production is 3/4 years away at least imv. Longer term it will hopefully be a significant driver to earnings, short term it has no bearing, they are still in ramp up phase of the existing production on that site.

dazz, it also depends if we are heading in to a new equity bear market here with a wider collapse in prices. If we are facing a major bear then £12 is possible, however somewhere around £17 may be the more likely outcome, just IMV. The copper price rose yesterday, we may be nearing a commodity low within the next few weeks, just my take.

Just wondered if one of you more technically literate (and probably younger than me) guys could post a link where I could monitor iron ore futures, or recommend a site to use?. Much appreciated

jolly, I need a certain amount of income at my age, so unfortunately it is not an option for me to be completely out of equities, limit exposure yes. There does not look a whole lot that I would term safe in equities currently - more than possible we are in the early stages of a new bear market here. On Iron Ore further falls is what the sector needs, BC halting IO production today in OZ is the type of news I am looking for and there are a raft of similar cuts on the way for early 2016.

Another smaller OZ Iron Ore producer suspending production today. The market mechanism in the mining sector may be efficient at taking out production than in the oil space atm. Speaking of oil, notice while crude continues to make new lows many of the sector SP's remain well off earlier year lows, BP as one example. In the US, XOM, CVX and even COP staying above those levels. There may be one more plunge lower towards the 2015 SP lows, the oil sector is then buyable imv.

jolly, I am cautious on the wider sector and hold only RIO. RIO is my sector choice as I rate the CEO, they appear relentless on cost optimisation and cash generation. As weaker sector operators cut CAPEX and in some cases fold, it ultimately results in a strong longer term outlook for the Company. What I would like to see is Iron Ore trade down to the mid $30's and stay there for a few months, as imv this will accelerate sector capacity reduction, the SP will not react favourably short term to further commodity falls, however this will result in a faster and sharper recovery imv. On my take RIO may act in a counter cyclical way as commodities are already in a vicious bear market, wider equity markets will follow at some point and if you look at the price you now pay for more defensive sectors, some investors will be killed buying on current ultra high PER's, as commodity investors have been buying towards the cycle top. PZC today is just one example of this, where earlier this year you were paying well over 20X to buy, on any disappointment with those multiples the SP takes a big hit. My mean average price on RIO is 2076, the final dividend looks secure imv and on buying I have allowed for up to a 35% cut in the 2016 interim dividend, the income stream still highly attractive on that basis. All IMV and as mentioned caution on wider equity markets may be warranted, any UKX fall also impacts RIO.

Yes may be, however having seen several cycles price tends to recover while sentiment continues to remain dire. If you are trading RIO, which many do, then your criteria will be very different. I fully accept that yesterday's low, and I bought some very near the low, may be undercut, may be even significantly undercut, particularly if we are in the earlier stages of a new equity bear market when about everything gets cheaper. However, what I am certain of is that I cannot call the exact low, or even the timeframe, and attempting to buy at some optimum price just will not happen. So instead I add a small amount on the world is ending days like yesterday morning, on a long term view only. GL is anyone regardless of their RIO view and as mentioned wider equity markets give reason for caution atm, all IMV only.

On Iron Ore imv. Today we have GLEN cutting once again and does anyone believe AAL will not need to take another large axe to CAPEX in 2016. CAPEX cuts will come thick and fast across the sector over the next 12 months. 2016 is also likely to see many smaller higher cost ore miners go to the wall, they will not have refinancing options available. If Iron Ore fell in to the $20's production would all but grind to a halt, I just do not see that happening. If a commodity falls below the cost of production that is what happens. The BUY is on a long term view only, no idea what the daily, weekly or monthly price will do. As the sector's strongest what do you think will happen as competitors start dropping like flies - unless the world suddenly develops no need for raw materials. Those now making multi year bearish calls are very likely the same commentators that had multiple strong buys at the very top of the cycle - all IMV only, DYOR as always. The RIO short term SP is also heavily influenced by the value of the UKX and it is only fair to observe that wider equity markets look weak atm, so some caution in current markets may be wise.

Tom Kirby bought nearly £1 Million worth of shares last month and now the CEO buys today. Also in relation to an earlier post by MadChatter , 40K is progressing towards a release date as confirmed by THQ last month - just not in the MMO format. New Hobby Centres opening and independent stockist numbers appear to be on the rise. GAW is beginning to look very interesting again IMV.