Member Info for alwayswrong

1.....Targa...yes, whichever way you look at it , there does seem to be a likelihood that some form of corporate theft has taken place, if not from the company itself, then from equity share holders who have seen their shares suspended due to their dubious actuvuties...

And yes in Saudi Arabia people found guilty of even petty theft (often on dubious evidence, if you are a third country national ) could have their hands cut off...so I would be very worried if I were an individual who has acted with impropriety ...

In fact I once saw a cartoon with a man in hospital with his hand in plaster having had his hand sewn back on and his friend was visiting ...and the caption underneath was " Ah, I see you won your appeal then "

Pistachio..."given the shares suspension we should stop posting on this board"....well it's still important to bring in relevant news of events as they happen...but also , in the meantime, there are 28 alternative shares that can be discussed which are the other favourite shares put forward by 28 people from this board

Later, I will publish the current league table as at Feb 28th...3 weeks after the tournament began , with another 5 weeks to go....lots of changes to it, with some shares suffering significant losses over the past week..These shares could present attractive buying opportunities..

Regarding future options for NMC , I will add my contributions to these later....

Guys...first of all let me extend my sympathy to those of you who have lost lots of money...

Thank god I exited at 68 pence, and I am frustrated because I did tell all why I was leaving which was , riding impairment levels and the precedents set by the FOS in reimbursing 90 % of all claims on an a lack of affordability basis , which for the pilot loans was possibly true... The final nail was the start up of several claims chasing companies seeing their opportunity to strike...
This isn't just me being wise after the event , I did foresee the outcomes and acted on them..

There are four glimmers of hope,however :
..
1...These dodgy pilot loans must be coming to the end regarding compensation levels now, because so much has already been paid out or provided for

2 .more care is being placed on new loans being taken out

3 . The company has signalled an exit from high risk lending because they will end up receiving no revenue given current precedents re reimbursement of interest paid for all high risk lending.

4. A final glimmer of hope is that the company is now taking fighting back by threatening fraudulent claims to watchdogs , which should reduce the likelihood of future similar claims. ..

It remains a high risk share, there can be no doubting that , but this is probably priced in...I see an uplift in share price coming , maybe from Monday , and there are the future upsides of the new parties expressing an interest.

It feels appropriate to add though, that the half year profit after tax was £37 million which has only risen to £45 million suggesting a full year profit of £50-£55 million ...just over half of last year ..but the share price is about 80 % lower so some turnaround is due..let's see if that happens...

For those still able to stomach the risks of equity...there are 28 alternative shares which have been put forward on this board which represent people's other top picks.

Might be worth taking a look at them...??

Yes it would be autonomy , but after the loss of trust and confidence , who would lend them extra money...?

Thanks Adzy ..but I did say assuming ALL which would be a 'worst case' scenario...the truth is we don't know anything yet so let's await the report...

Adzy...excellent intuition to think of checking out the bonds trading price...very well done for that.

It's important though to keep things in perspective...even assuming ALL of the $ 350 million guarantee has been called upon under the guarantee agreement , then there would be a $ 100 million one off net deficit for 2019 ,( given that there was a
$ 250 million profit run rate in 2018) which would probably be higher in 2019 anyway...

It would of course though, increase net debt by $350million on top of the net debt of $ 2.2 billion previously reported , putting an added strain on liquidity .

Options then would have to include either selling off part or the whole of the business to a cash rich buyer, or if one can't be found, then to go for a rights issue earlier than I had predicted

All of course, speculation in ignorance of the true facts . Nothing more to be said.

Thanks KOH...Yes you and I are seeing things alike.. and I agree with all that you have said...prudence at this stage would be there intention , so that when shares do trade again , the news won't be as bad as people had feared..

One caveat though, if the book keeping errors were insignificant , then I can't see why it would take them until the end of April to sort them out...?

That makes sense Mr Rooster because they borrowed a share which was in effect worthless , so no cash necessary to repay back for shares which are worthless.

The London Stock exchange has listed a handful of separate trades all taking place at 8.07 am...
6 shares in 4 separate trades at £10.00
8 shares in 1 trade at £7.90
All trades were off book

I agree with Mrd in that the most likely scenario is that the company requested it's shares to be temporarily suspended, to protect existing shareholders, who would otherwise have panic sold at any price so as to get something from their investment rather than nothing. This would have resulted in a downward spiralling movement of the share price, in a self prophesising manner..

I repeat , that the previous anouncement re supply chain financing, by related companies of the directors of NMC, represented nothing more than a guarantee made by NMC , which should have, but wasn't disclosed as a contingent liability ....and that no request had actually been made to invoke this guarantee, based on what was said in the previous RNS release.

As such, and at this moment in time, there is no proven actual financial loss, suffered by NMC

However, as I also said early this morning, the worrying revelation is that cash can't be reconciled to the ledgers and won't be until the end of April , when it is hoped the delayed accounts will be published .

This could imply that the guarantee has in fact been called upon , but not yet accounted for , in NMC's accounts , explaining why the bank balance can't be reconciled to the books of account. ..if this is so, then the focus of the review now, is to establish just how much of the £35O million has been called upon, paid out, and not yet disclosed .. this could be where the attempts were made to thwart and frustrate the findings of the review..

Of course, this and anything else that may have alleged to have happened is pure speculation.. we will just have to wait and see..

I think that the most likely timescale for recommencing share trading is subsequent to the release of the accounts at the end of April. .

Any thoughts KOH. ?

..If anybody no longer has any confidence in NMC and chooses to exit at this point, I have 28 alternative shares that they may wish to consider investing in instead...

I agree with you, re the efficient running of the hospitals and the good they do with regard to the hope they bring to families with their fertility activities , so I think the company still has a long term future ahead of it....on the other hand , financially this will be perceived as another piece of news which will only add to the breakdown in trust and a further lack of confidence in the company's governance and reporting procedures....indeed on that score it must be edging towards a vote of no confidence.

I did say , that I thought that a management clearout would take place and a new dawn appear. The first part of that just seems to have happened sooner than I had anticipated.

Regarding how the market will react tomorrow.. I have learned not to guess, because whenever I do , it reacts in the opposite way. I suspect it will fall sharply at the beginning, and then recover later on in the day ...which is my gut reaction...but let's wait and see...

Well...what can I say. ?? Spent a day and night out with the family and come back to all of this. ..

I have only just read the RNS which I must say did come as a shock...not so much the supply chain financing...this isn't in itself an unusual arrangement, and I have used it in some of the companies I have worked for , where income receipts are lumpy , so I have used supplier facilities as a way of funding working capital requirements

...I commented on the NMC accounts that 90 days for debtors was high, but from my experience working the the middle East , it isn't unusual and back then was a cultural feature of late payments all round... it this was matched in the related companies , then I can see the need for supply chain financing facilities.
Yes it should have been stated as a contingent liability and it's suspicious that it wasn't . but unless and until it is called upon , it won't affect the bottom line and the good news is that these are now being wound down.

I was wondering if , given that the Board didn't know of and therefore hadn't approved of these facilities , whether the guarantee was in fact 'ultra vires' and therefore null and void ?? Any thoughts KOH ?

The aspect which does bother me, is the failure to reconcile the bank balances back to the ledger accounts , 2 months after the year end ?? Until this has been done, we don't know if something more serious is lurking ..

I went on record here and stated that I didn't think the financial accounts would have been mis-stated, well apart from the omission of the supplier arrangements contingent liability , they haven't as yet been misreported , but until cash balances are reconciled then doubts must now exist...

Smiler...let's put it this way ..if I was thinking of committing suicide , I wouldn't be changing my mind after reading one of Adzys post , but I still have this need to know what he thinks ...

I remain convinced that the long term fundamentals remain compelling with NMC and I will remain invested .
Right now though there is a retreating tide, which lowers all boats, and there will be some fantastic gains to be made on some 'value' shares which have been hit the most and which are approaching year lows.. I am busy looking at the thirty alternative shares , put forward from people on this board, to see which of them were doing well but have now lost the most ...and when the tide turns, I will be putting my cash into some of them..

Personally , I think the Corona virus will get worse before it gets better but I see NMC bucking the trend.

Adzy...what do you see re NMC ?

Sorry meant to write catalyst...either my spell checker isn't working or my brain !! I will blame the spell checker; anyway my fear is that the negative market reaction to the Corona virus, may become both deeper and more prolonged ...of course it is only a fear...

Yes bargains are forming...you need look no further than people's alternative share recommendations. ...stocks which were doing very well have been dragged down much further than FTSE, these might be good candidates to invest in, once the Corona virus is under control...
Trouble is I can see FTSE being dragged down quite a bit alongside all world stocks and this might just act as a conduit for a wider fall...I hope not but it's a real possibility..

Smiler... I am always long too and have made some great choices ..I have been a qualified accountant for nearly 40 years so I head straight for the Balance Sheet .
I have made some well researched escapes too after taking a more detailed look at their accounts...namely Carillion at £2.10 and Saga at £1.27 ..(got back into Saga at 35p and sold last summer at 50 p)..

Had some nightmares though, Metro Bank, Superdry and Playtech. to name three....I have full confidence in NMC though and will hang around for a while....I do still read negative articles though to evaluate whether j can still justify my holding. ATB..

Cheezy, that was one hell of a choice ..I wish I had acted on it .but you don't know before hand which of the 25 or so recommendations would do so well .

Hey sorry Adeos...you remain in 3rd....

Cheezy recommended Faron Chemicals right from the start at a price of £2.15.

...after one week it was down 3.5 % to lie in 14th spot.
...last week it was up by 31.4 % to rise to 2nd spot
....this week so far it's up by a further 31 % to £3.70 to take the top spot with a total gain of 72 %. !! in less than 3 weeks.!!

What a recommendation ...

Sugs...I am retired now so read most stuff on the board...I think someone on here, can't remember who , got it spot on when he said that Adzy is a negative long or something similar..

Anyway, I remember you were making some predictions a couple of weeks ago ...is the price shaping up as you suggested ? If so where are we heading next in your view ? ATB...

Deos...you are doing well on the alternative shares league table with NMC...all other shares are falling...you might well win this ...although Mornington closed out a 55% gain so you have to double up on your gains so far by the end of next month.

Smiler...I like adzy but your posts really do make me laugh..a la 'trade what you see'...keep the 'spitting images' humour alive.