Member Info for alwayswrong

Adzy, I can't read it properly on my phone...what does it all mean please ..

Adzy...welcome back...I for one are glad to see your return....J examine your comments and links in detail to judge if I can still justify holding my long position ...thus far I can...

Your role seems to fluctuate between being the canary in the coalmine, the parrot on the shoulder or the annoying fly in the room that you can't swot, no matter how hard you try...whichever you are , you add value to the board as everyone else does in their own way.. diversity of opinion is healthy and beneficial to all serious investors who don't want to lose their money..

Some interesting observations thus far...

1...Equal number of shares made gains as losses..

2...NMC is our benchmark share and has been the subject to lots of negative comments and remarks , yet despite this, it actually registered the third highest percentage increase after the first week of the competition..

3...In the past week the FTSE all share index posted a 0.4 % loss ( 4135 - 4151 ) so you can all see how you did when be benchmarked against the FTSE index

Dear all.....I am sorry but it has been posted all skew wift which is annoying....I posted it all out in meticulous alignment .....Grrhh ;;.....just look at final column for percentage increases or decreases.. The current league positions and your place in it is evident...

And now for something completely different...posted below you will find the complete league table positions of the performance of entrants alternate shares for the first week ending 14th February 2020....
The competition will run until Friday 27th March, and there are still a limited number of places for new entrants..
The league table is as follows...:
Pos. Entrant. Company. Entry. Current. ( % )
Abbrev. Price Price Increase
1....Morng.. NCYT. 51p. 79.2 p. 55.3. (cl)
2....T' Tree CWR. £ 4.37 £ 4.90 12.1
3...Deos. NMC. £ 7.00. £ 7.75. 10.7

4...Shezr. Finablr. 71.5p. 78.4p. 9.6
5. Danny. H.L. £ 16.05. £ 16.90. 5.3
6.. Alto. WMH. £ 1.73. £. 1.81. 4.5
7...UALL. URS. 62.8p. 64p. 1.9
8.. Chas Kape. £ 1.74. £ 1.77. 1.7
9 ..Adze. FXPO £. 1.44. £ 1.45. 0.7
10..Heresh. STAF. 47.7p. 48p. 0.5
11. CB1234. IQE. £ 0.608. £ 0.606. - 0.3
12. .TinaT. IMB. £ 18.55. £ 18.25. - 1.6
13..Pearls. SGI. 3.15p. 3.06p. -. 2.9
14..Cheeky. FARN. £ 2.15. £ 2.135. -. 3.5
15..DANA. TXP. £ 0.41. £ 0.39. - 3.7
16..Mark. KEFI. £ 1.75. £ 1.64. - 6.3
17..MoneyB. VOG. 5.77p. 5.39p - 6.6
18..SWG. GGP. £ 4.35. £ 4.00. - 8.1
19..STAN. INDV. 43.45p 39.71p. - 8.6
20..AqueS. HUR. 17.2p. 15.4p. - 10.6
21..Morng. KAT. 4.35p. 3.5p - 19.5
22 Calam. EUA. Share Suspended

Ok folks, there you have it...Mornington , Tiptree and Deos currently in the Champions league positions but only one week gone so all to play for.

Just a quick post to say that I have completed the Alternative Shares League League Table after the first week of the competition...

I will publish the full list tomorrow but , the top 3 after the first week are as follows..

1...Mornington cz. .....NCY. 55 % GAIN (Closed out)
2....Tiptree............ ...CWR. 12.1 %. GAIN
3....Deos...................NMC. 10.7 % GAIN

Fuller details showing entry price , current price and percentage gain / ( loss ) will be published in league table format for all entrants.

Good night everyone .

PS :. Adze...please come back ...your fiercest critic of the NMC style is of value to us all, whether we realise it or not.. besides, you are also in the competition !!

You too Popeye...I have the flowers, hopefully I will get lucky afterwards....ATB

Hey Adzy
If the whole NMC Board were fired and replaced with me P.C.. Helipad and Popeye wearing our trunks over our trousers...would you still be shorting the stock or do you have a better more cunning plan ?

Sad act ...look at my posts on Carillion on the AFVDN board where I posted as Candid Investor ...I got out at just over £2.00....told others to do so and was ridicuked...Carillion worked on just 3% margins for massive long term contracts . Totally different story..margins here are very healthy..
Incidentally look at my posts re Saga too....I left at £1.28 ridiculed again ..(ex RN guys who likes big boats bought not one but two of them and now riddled with nearly £1 billion...yes crass decisions are made. ....I recently left Amigo at 68 pence around break even .
I am staying put here.. but if management shows signs of screwing up , I will leave on an upswing...benefit of the doubt time for now..

Heli...thanks for your post..you summed it up perfectly..

Haha...absolutely P.C..
OK..It's Valentine's Day..if I don't get to flower shop my balls will be in the bacon slicer...
Ciao..

Heli...j am using official figures from NMC's half year report predicting the outturn for the end of the year...every update they have provided since has confirmed these figures.. am quoting net debt , maybe theirs is gross debt.. whatever ...debt is too high and in my view Net Debt to EBITDA of 1-2 times should be the target which is possible in the medium term ..as all that needs to be done right now is to declare the intent

Thanks Preserve Capital for your input....yes you are right...I know because I spent two years as the internal auditor for the King Khalid Hospital in Jeddah . I had to accompany my criticisms with an equal amount of compliments , otherwise they would have been dismissed and me too.....I saw first hand the sensitivity , contempt and apathy towards change....but whether they like it or not they are part of the FTSE and Shetty has lost billions so far by ignoring that ...it is in all of our interests more so his, to change that and NOW....

I will keep it brief...

The problems...
1...Inept / Corrupt governance
2.. Allegations of false accounting and fraud
3..Out of control debt levels
4...No future pathway visible or even planned probably.

What to do .
1 & 2... Thoroughly investigate the evident inept governance and alleged serious wrong doings...don't leave a stone unturned and don't release the full findings of the report until it is complete, true and fair, with an action plan to address the shortcomings alongside .

If there are shortcomings in any of these areas then in my experience the most effective way to deal with them is to come clean, confess , apologise and vow to put rhem right and also give a timescale for doing so.

Begging for forgiveness has in my experience been better and more effective for a company and its share price , than lying and denying...

3. Debt ...The cause of the debt is growing pains of acquiring businesses at a much more rapid rate than the cash from net earnings. It hasn't been caused by structural deficits in its operations activities
..this is not a terminal condition but it will take 2 -3 years to fully rectify....by doing the following..

(a )..temporary moratorium on further acquisitions....focus on fully integrating the existing ones...news emerging of previous new businesses not meshing together properly with existing ones...deal with that now ..
(b)...Suspend future dividends ..repay debt
(c)...if possible divest discreet lower margin / non core businesses and again repay debt.
(d). If necessary, conduct a rights issue but don't dilute existing shareholders equity too much.

Debt is currently about 3.5 x EBITDA. ( Earnings before interest , tax , depreciation and amortization of intangible assets ). This needs to be reduced to between 1-2 times by following religiously the steps identified above..

4..Future pathway....the group is still in a phase of growth from existing acquisitions...repay the debt associated with that and enjoy the extra rewards before any further expansion .

Once the debt has been brought under control, then only make further acquisitions, through strategic partnerships to share the future debt burden

Hidden as a footnote in the accounts is some breaking news about brokering a ground breaking agreement with GOSI in KSA which will bring huge opportunities for future growth ..they need to be relentless in pursuing this alongside the other actions

Finally communicate this to everyone in the same way that MW attacked them....set and make public, deadlines.. and provide quarterly monitoring reports alongside trading updates

I think if they handle things this way , then the confessing and coming clean phase will help restore trust, and the communication of the future pathway and subsequent monitoring and progress reporting will rebuild confidence.
Finally, don't sell the group any time soon , or indeed any time ever if they can avoid it...this business took a

The first thing to do is to put the fundamentals to one side until they can be properly and independently verified...I may be being naive but I think they will be successful in doing this..

We are now left with the share price movements and it looks like we could be facing the classic four stage cycle, following digestion of the MW report and subsequent sudden resignation...

Stage 1....Shock.....share price dropped to £ 7.00

Stage 2....Denial.....share price increased to £ 9 30

Stage 3...Recognising there is a problem....NOW...and continuing. Share price falling.

Then either...

3b....denial phase re-entered and price recovers temporarily...then ....

4...Capitulation -- sooner or later...it falls like a stone, way below what most of us on this board imagined myself included...

5...Recovery. if they can take the right actions and do the right things , then the bottom will be reached and recovery can then take place, assuming of course that the fundamentals were and remain intact .

Ok that's the possible/ probable cycle of share price movements..

However, none of these phases, whether they all play out or not, will have a major impact on the fundamentals...only in how they are perceived...initiated by the MW report, reinforced by the instant resignation this morning of a key official..
and subsequently dealt with by management ..

I will write a post next giving MY opinion (and it is only my opinion )of what I think the board should do now...

The first thing to do is to put the fundamentals to one side until they can be properly and independently verified...I may be being naive but I think they will be successful in doing this..

We are now left with the share price movements and it looks like we could be facing the classic four stage cycle, following digestion of the MW report and subsequent sudden resignation...

Stage 1....Shock.....share price dropped to £ 7.00

Stage 2....Denial.....share price increased to £ 9 30

Stage 3...Recognising there is a problem....NOW...and continuing. Share price falling.

Then either...

3b....denial phase re-entered and price recovers temporarily...then ....

4...Capitulation -- sooner or later...it falls like a stone, way below what most of us on this board imagined myself included...

5...Recovery. if they can take the right actions and do the right things , then the bottom will be reached and recovery can then take place, assuming of course that the fundamentals were and remain intact .

Ok that's the possible/ probable cycle of share price movements..

However, none of these phases, whether they all play out or not, will have a major impact on the fundamentals...only in how they are perceived...initiated by the MW report, reinforced by the instant resignation this morning of a key official..
and subsequently dealt with by management ..

I will write a post next giving MY opinion (and it is only my opinion )of what I think the board should do now...

It would appear that way Adzy..this is what I was expecting to happen as soon as message was released...something official now needs to come out to prevent a potential huge slide.

Incidentally , that was my favourite share, low debt, sustained growth and product in demand with little effective competition, given their low cost base brought about by economies of scale. ....only problems surprise surprise is money laundering / etc suspicions against key official(s)

Adzy....Yes that's fine...I had already put you down for it..

Adzy...I have you down for Ferrexpo at the price when you chose it....I had it originally but decided to withdraw so as to maintain my neutrality...do you still want it ? or would you like to choose another ?