Member Info for alwayswrong

Hi Deos...Mornington chose NCYT at 51 pence... He closed the position last week when the price reached
79 pence for a 55 % gain which has been secured for the remainder of the competition...
He should have stayed in, because the share price went up by 67 % today !! to a share price of £1.66 so his total gain would have been an uncatchable 225 % !!
Because he closed his position with a 55 % gain , you will need NMC share price to rise to £10.85 by the end of next month to overtake him.

You remain in 3rd spot currently with a gain of 14.3 %
Tiptree remains in second with CWR with a 16.7 % gain, thanks to a further 4.1 % gain today..
Positions do change on a daily basis though , and some of people's share choices are well into positive territory. People can look at them for their own portfolios which was the real aim of the competition..

Your 3rd position means that you are currently in the top 3 champions League spots, so we will have to send you to Brussels to compete there for the next competition if you remain in the top 3...

I posted the full league table yesterday showing people's positions after the first week .

There are still a limited number of places open if other people want to put forward their favourite share for the benefit of others but also for the fun of the competition..

In the week since I began the alternative shares competition using NMC as the benchmark, there have been 4 directors sacked at NMC yet despite this , the share price has actually risen by 14 %. Only 2 of the remaining 20 alternate shares selected by you all, have performed better so Deos who has NMC, will be happy..
Once confirmation of the financials has been confirmed, which it will , then the share price will take off...
I am repeating that I don't think a bid will be beneficial to us all, at what would in effect be fire-sale prices...I would prefer if the necessary actions were trying taken internally, which in turn would re-rate the share price back to their fundamental value...£20-£25 or even higher..

I am not happy about it either. although in the grand scheme of things , probably a necessary step in rebuilding trust .. a clean set of financials should help to rebuild confidence...looks like NMC are pressing the reset button which is a good thing...and things could be worse, the sacked directors could come back !!.

Deos..Calamari has EUA ..but the shares have been suspended ..

Absolutely Mark....a bit like the NMC....Good luck...

Let's hope Kefi comes up for you tomorrow Mark, you are currently lying 16th in the league table, 6.3 % down on last week...league table was published earlier...

Deos....look at the league table posted earlier , where you are sitting 3rd in it so heading for the 'champions league'...... There are 20 other share tips for you to choose from...

Yes Mark...you are right there...the long and short of it, is that we won't know until we know, so to speak, if this has indeed been a good investment, and any assertions made before then, are based on pure speculation..

CB1234 , I agree totally about the issue being thus far about how billionaires manage their finances.. I have yet to see how this affects the financials....one MW report and Chinese whispers begin and grow at a rampant rate...I deal in evidence , not fifth hand hearsay ..like you though, I am reserving judgement until we know the truth..

Debt is a real concern and how they deal with it....the obvious route would be to cease further expansion , suspend dividends, repay debt, wait for share price to re-rate , then issue further equity to catch up with the historic rates of expansion, without diluting EPS and continue further acquisitions and strategic alliances and partnerships to grow the footprint in existing regions outside the Gulf..

Thanks Adzy re GPN...How long have you been invested there.? looks to be on a meteoric rise...normally I avoid these, thinking the profits have already been made..
Also it's on NYSE and I can't access those shares within my Sipp which is my sole investment vehicle... Is there a way which doesn't involve having to work through a broker...? Also the vast amount of my money is in older established unit trusts like Fundsmith and Lindsell Global, whose track records is there to see and consistent too...
I agree with your choice of Ferrexpo by the way..their financials are excellent, operations very simple and they hold strong position , and they have low cost base...their share will double within next 5 years , probably 3 if they can get their corruption allegations dealt with...a bit high risk though , and I already have one of them ..

Adz..
Oh and I repeat..I don't want it to be bought out at what would be fire sale prices...better that he is a nobody..that way the sale will not proceed...what is needed at the NMC is a turnaround plan which is actually executed , starting with its over arching governance arrangements..

Adzy. You must explain the workings of Global payments to me at some point...!!

Haha..I agree with you about those still clinging on to £15 by the end of next week , but to me , it's a random short term guess...how do I know any more than they do...it's anybody's guess...

Yes it is very high risk...value shares always are. And you just hope you havent selected a value trap which I don't think this is...The NMC holds the dominant position in the Gulf States and it will still exist after our Arab friends have long departed...hospital buildings facilities and operations cannot be replicated overnight.

I do have another portfolio of the shares of excellent companies that I bought for a fair price and will also hold on to also... I don't trust my judgement of short term share price movements to dip in and out of them , particularly with stamp duty and transaction costs to pay with each new purchase.. I tend to be a conviction buyer , but if long term fundamentals do change then so will my conviction..

Regarding your assertion on paper losses, the correct term would be 'unrealised' losses...because you only 'realise' the gain or loss on the share when you sell it.

Yes I agree, if you are intelligent or lucky enough to predict the upswings and downswings of a share price before they occur, then you will maximise your profits..
Well , yes I do have balls , but no they are not Chrystal..!! I remain long..

Thanks Adzy....the numbers I have quoted are as you say all historic up to the end of 2018...however this rate of growth has continued this year , and the acquisitions recently made and paid for and recognised in the debt figures bake future growth into pie...

NMC's footprint is growing around the world and I haven't even factored in the GOSI agreement yet because I don't know the extent and content of the agreement.
Regarding the numbers being totally false ? If they are, I will show my arse at "public gate"...
Everyone talks about cash being overstated...cash as shown in the accounts is as at one day only. !! (the 30th June, in the interim results..). That number can change by tens of millions of $ on any one day due to movements in working capital (stocks, debtors , creditors ) alone...let alone capital spend and acquisitions...mentioning the word cash in a suspicious manner is a great way to get people running for the exits without knowing why..
My only concern is their ability of formulating a sensible plan of repaying the debt , and whether the shareholdings shenanigans which are designed to operate mutually exclusively to the business performance and activities have deeper consequences which have yet to emerge.

Well minjin...my name on here 'always wrong' relates to the share price, because it' s based on emotions to reported events....over exuberant on good news and over pessimistic on bad...it never reaches the correct fundamental price at that time because it never knows it, it only crosses it on its way up and down...at least that's my view...

Adzy...the longs don't want NMC to be sold or taken over right now...not when it's on its knees, thats just plain stupid...it needs to keep a low profile for now until it knows the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth from all independent sources, then come out fighting along the pathway I have previously prescribed..

It seems to me that the key distinction between 'longs' and 'shorts' on this board can be found in the name..
The longs, by their nature are seeking to buy and hold the share for a long time (not forever , only a fool does that because nothing lasts forever ..). I invest long, with the objective of doubling my money every 5 years..sooner if I can.....

I went long in the NMC at an average of £8.35 and my reasoning in going long is based on whether the NMC's share price can reach over say £15 within the next 5 years , or ideally sooner . I don't care much for the scenic route it takes along the way, just on whether I think the share can achieve this price within the timescale I have set out .. in doing this I examine the key fundamentals .
1...Strategic .....is the company at the growth stage, steady state , or in decline ....NMC is clearly in the growrh stage of increasing capacity at around 20 % per annum via debt funded acquisitions and strategic partnerships..
2 .Operations....forget the brochures and promotions literature ..examine the facts . The NMC scores 7/10 by its patients for the quality of their care , and also by its own employees as a good place to work...these figures are verified by external review organisations based on client and employee feedback... whilst not 10/10 how many of our own hospitals would score this ?
It's utilisation figures at all of it's medical clinics , hospitals and centres, average out at around 65 - 70 %. Ideal for private health care patients , and a pie in the sky dream from our own NHS hospitals..(picture trolleys in A&E) Importantly, NMC as an operation is a positive contributor to society ..it offers hope with fertility treatment etc etc..it is does not earn it's revenue from dodgy activities..(think Amigo)
3...Financials....Growth evidenced by the following.
Revenue more than tripled from $ 644 million to $ 2.1 billion in 5 years to 31/12/18
...profit after tax again more than tripled from $ 78 million to $ 258 million bringing about a tripling of earnings per share from $ 0.41 to $ 1.20....
..the average P.E.ratio over this period has been around 25...now it is just around 8...
4..Debt ..yep , a major problem area....however this has been caused by capacity building at a far higher rate than the increase in profits...it hasn't been caused by funding of structural deficits ...this is a key positive fundamental
Hence my long position....patience, that once the governance and ownership shenanigans are over, the fundamentals of the business will reassert themselves and the share price will re-rate .
Shorts , on the other hand by their definition, only hold positions for short periods of time, making stealth moves on vulnerable shares, they gloat on bad news, then move in and out....
In the final analysis it depends on whether you think the NMC can rise from the ashes of their current problems.. I think they can and am long...

Thanks for explaining the article...I will judge alongside all other published data and articles..

No worries adzy and please stick around for the majority of us...I hold a long position but most of all I want to know why somebody thinks the complete opposite and holds a short position instead...and I am absolutely convinced from my previous experiences with shares that I am always better off knowing ...

There are polarised views here as on all other boards...you could be forgiven for thinking we are talking about Brexit !!