Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
KOH....I wrote something similar and went further to say even in the worst case, and these liabilities were to be realised, it would only involve a one off hit resulting in a one year deficit of around £100 million given the annual profits run rates of over £250 million..
I had already drawn attention to the possibility of factoring their debtors for instant cash of up to
$500 million dollars .... so unless the irregularities are far worse than we had imagined, then they should be able to get through this once the hysteria dies down .
In some ways, the suspending of the shares could prove to be a blessing in disguise , given the reaction to markets overall, but we just have to see what unfolds ..
Alternative Shares League Table as at 6th March , 2020
Quite a week but the top 5 in league table are all still in positive territory...
The full league table is as follows. :.
1. MORNG......NCYT......... + 55.0 %. (position closed)
2.....CHEEZY......FARN.........+ 41.9
3.....STAN.........INDV........ + 19.3
4.... SWG..........GGP......... + 6.9
5... JOHN747....DEV...... + 4.7
6....HEIMER.......PPS...... - 9.6
7.....DANA...... TXP....... - 10.4
8.....T'TREE. .....CWR ..... - 10.8
9....TINA't........ IMB....... -. 11.5
=10 .ADZY....... FXPO..... - 13.2
=10...CHAS........KAPE..... -. 13.2
=10. FTSE ALL SHARE ..... - 13.2
12 ..SPECIALK....BLDP...... - 14.4
13...AQUE....... HUR....... -. 16.3
14.. ALTO....... WMH..... - 22.5
15....CB1234. IQE....... -. 24.2
16....PEARLS.... SGI....... - 27.0
17... CASTWY .... BOD....... - 28.4
18... HERESH..... STAF..... - 29.8
19... VAL............ VRS ..... -. 30.7
20.....MONEY...... UOG..... - 31.0
21....PROPS........BIRD..... - 32.9
22. .SHEZR..... FIN... .... - 43.3
23....MARK........ KEFI ..... - 47.4
24....MORNG......KAT....... - 50.6
25....DEOS....... NMC....Share suspended .
All 5 champions League spots have made gains..
9 selections beat the FTSE all share index
2 selections matched the FTSE all share index
14 selections trailed the FTSE all share index..
Hi Teasybear...too late with DEV....JOHN747 recommended it as his favourite alternative share in the competition that began 4 weeks ago...we are now half way through the competition which ends on 3rd April.
I am just about to publish the full league table.
Here's Hopin....my apologies for late replying but I missed your response..Happy to clear a few things up...
1...I have been a qualified accountant for almost 40 years and was a Finance Director for 20 years before retiring through epilepsy two years ago.. I am not some amateur book keeping enthusiast as you imply
2.. I dont pop on to boards when the battle has ended, bayoneting all the wounded as you say ...I pop on to boards when I see terrible things wrong with the Balance Sheet and accounts and express my doubts and fears ...I have a trek record for this ...not only Amigo ..look at AFDVN board where I post as Candid Investor and warned people with Carillion when the share price was over £2.00 , when I exited ....later I did the same on Saga when price was £1.28... I give people my views as a qualified accountant and it's up to people to make their own decisions ..after all isn't that what these boards are for ?
3..I am invested in NMC , which was based on published and audited accounts...I might not get my money back there , but being an accountant doesn't give you immunity to being the victim of remote fraud, if that is what is happening ..I actually remain optimistic with NMC...the dramatic fall in stock markets doesn't affect a suspended share ..I have set out my thoughts on that board of a recovery plan I would invoke their if I was their FD, which of course I am not.....I see hope there..
Also on that board , I gave something back to it by holding a competition to see whose alternative favourite share could make the most profit by the end of March... I am about to publish the latest league table after 4 weeks of the competition , there are another 4 weeks to go...
This competition was designed not just for fun but to provide all board participants with alternative share tips from all of the other members of the board..
The competition attracted 25 participants ...
I was derided when I exited at 68 pence and advised others to do the same when I saw the mounting stream of complaints that were upheld, bad publicity, companies offering redress on a no win no fee basis...yet another company ruined by the FOS...
Pretty soon non prime borrowers won't be able to get loans ...would you lend to them given the regulatory environment ?
Mrd.. NMC can get this $ 500 million cash injection required, by obtaining 80 % of its $ 700 million of the monies that people owe NMC (debtors ) NOW !! rather than wait the 90 days which they will otherwise have to do...the mechanism for doing this is a simple one known as "factoring", and some companies specialise in doing this for a 2% fee per 3O days worth of outstanding debtors.....that would give them the liquidity free breathing space they need to seal a deal....simple as...
I predict that it will run out of cash and willing funders, go into administration, the insurance part of the business sold off to pay for part of the ships and then Carnival will enter and get the 2 huge boats for around 20% of the cost... equity shareholders will be last in the queue .
Homer...Sad about Flybe...? I am not...I bought two tickets last Summer to go to Bordeaux and back and they made so many **** ups with my booking it was untrue...the worst part was them fraudulently doubling the ticket prices I had booked with Opodo...!! The stewardesses were fantastic though and I feel sorry for them working with such a **** company..
This is a basket case of a share. Ex RN man was in charge with a liking for big boats... He bought not one huge pink elephant but two , burdening the company with £1 billion of debt ..how can anyone be so crass ?? He joined at a share price of around £2.00 and
saddled them with huge fixed costs which without Corona virus to contend with would have been crippling , but add in Corona and you have a company with 2 empty boats (because that's what they will be ), heading for the iceberg...oh and the subsequent appointment of Euan Sutherland as CEO defies belief...he took over Superdry when the price was around £20.00 and by the time he was sacked it had fallen to £4....now it has sunk further to £3...like to know one of the crass decisions he made ? Deciding to launch a range of kidswear stuff for winter skiing ??? Did he really think mum's would buy this stuff for their children to wear for two weeks on one holiday...they would have grown out of them for the next year. !! Also how many children in the UK go skiing.
Next he destroyed the Superdry Brand by discounting clothes to Primark prices..
It wiuld all be so laughable if it wasn't so damaging to people's pension funds.. !! Thank god I got out at 50 pence...
Sorry Moneybags ..yes you did ..!! That's what happens when you update a table travelling on a train....have found the correct entry which was on last week's amended list .
UOG ....entry price. 3.55 pence...price on 28/2. 2.65 pence. Loss on entry price. -25.3 %. league position 19th....(we agreed the 3.55 pence entry price last week on previous correction)...
Sorry , can't use today as an entry price or I would have to do that for everyone....
Well at least you have jumped up 5 places and just 12 % beyond a top 10 spot...although it has to be said...22 % below a champions League top 5 slot....don't despair though, penny shares can move up extremely quickly during a market recovery..
Please confirm that you are happy and can relate to the 3.55 pence entry price I have it down for .
Cheers ..
Total Quant...don't touch fixed assets.!!..
Look instead at current assets ..simply factor the debtors and bring in $500million plus of cash within a week !! Wtf don't they do that ?
Theirs is not the Balance Sheet of a company going bust unless the fraud is of epidemic proportions in which case E&W should be held accountable ...why do shareholders pay their fees if their reports are worthless
.
IIf true then Shetty should be stripped of all his assets until his mess is sorted and the company is able to operate properly funded again...or face Jail like he would in the UK , where to company is registered...
Not just Shetty but all parties involved in this sordid mess...
How come MW discovered all of this and no regulatory body had absolutely any clue ??
If allegations are true , then I have never ever come across anything remotely like this in my 40 years of working in finance with 20 of those as FD ..
I am shell shocked ..currently reviewing alternative shares from the list of 25 ..
Pointless the FCA holding an enquiry now...it's the equivalent of going in when the battle is lost and bayoneting the wounded. !!
Yes , I noticed that it's share price is holding up well..
I had my eye on Dec after reading their financial reports but those league tables are as at 28th Feb...and the buggar rose by 10 % today..
Obviously lots of other bargains with huge potential to rebound very strongly...most of the penny shares have been anialhated so they would be a good place to start...
Pistachio....that is what the alternative shares league table is all about ..
All companies in the league table are all the favourite shares , apart from NMC that 25 people from this board have put forward .
Question is...will the best investments going forward be those in positive territory despite the Corona ..or will they be the ones that have lost the most , which are likely to offer the greatest opportunity for profit from a solid rebound once the Corona virus and / or FTSE correction comes to an end...
NOTE...These shares are not being promoted or plugged they simply represent the named shares that somebody on this board is researching , studying and/or may be buying .
Good luck all in your choices...
Apols for not posting it sooner..lots of changes , only 2 on positive territory and one break even, the rest are losing money...some hugely...they might rebound the most but worth giving them all a fresh look now..
League positions and percentage gains or losses are :
1...MORNG......NCYT..... + 55.0
2...CHEEZY.....FARN......+ 52.1
3...STAN ........INDIV. 0
4....SWG........GGP......... -3.0
5.JOHN747. DEV....... -3.1
6. DANNY. HL.......... -4.2
7. ADZY. FXPO..... -10.4
8. T'TREE. CWR...... -11.4
9. CHAS.. KAPE..... -12.1
10.SPECIALK.. BLDP. -13.2
11..ALTO. WMH...... -13.9
12..AQUE. HUR. -14.0
13...SHEZR. FIN. - 14.5
14. DANA. TXP -15.3
15. TINA.T. IMB. -16.2
16..CWAY. BOD. -17.9
17 CB1234. IQE. -20.7
18.HEIMER. PPS... -23.2
19..PROPS. BIRD. -28.6
20.PEARLS. SGI ... -28.7
21. HERESH. STAF. -29.8
22.MARK. KEFI. - 36.6
23. VALL. VRS. - 38.7
24. MONEY. VOG. -40.0
25..MORNG. KAT. -54.0
ADEOS---NMC.....not shown as suspended...
Sorry if columns out of alignment ..that's the site..
Some extremely good bargains have apparently appeared in these figures...
Can tell you one thing...apart from NCYT which was closed out with a 55% gain 2 weeks ago , only one other share has made a gain since start on 14/2. Most penny shares have been hammered .
FTSE drop has led to bargains galore with possibly more to come...Cheers .
Sorry didn't get time to update league table but will do it tomorrow ..am away this weekend .
They couldn't see the wood because there were no trees..!
Having looked at the Balance Sheet in the Half year accounts to the end of June, 2019, I don't think the picture is as bleak as some people are making out.
It isn't debt per se which is the real issue, ,it's the root cause of that debt...I have drawn attention to this before .
In the 5 years since 2014, total assets have increased from circa $1 billion to circa $4 billion...i.e. $3 billion..
Net equity, however (receipts from issue of shares and retained net profits after dividends ) has only increased by $1 billion to leave an additional shortfall of
$2 billion which has been funded by extra debt until now, and the debt burden has become overstretched..
The root cause of this debt , therefore has been acquisitions , NOT to fund operating deficits , which is positive.. however to rebalance equity and debt , one or more of the following has to happen to prevent a fire sale .
1...Some of these ssets have to be sold, starting with lower performing non core assets and Aspen Healthcare which seems to be nothing short of a UK trophy asset would fit that description ..
2...Current Assets exceed current liabilities by
$ 600 million ..liquidating these current assets which debt is effectively funding would make a huge difference to short term liquidity ...
A good place to start would be debtors which stand at around $700 million....80 % of these can be factored i.e. sold on at a cost of around 2% for every 30 days of debt...average debt of NMC is 90 days so 80 % of these debtors can be converted into cash ($ 560 million) for a
6 % fee giving instant extra liquidity of around
$ 525 million..!! Continuing this process would lead to a permanent, rather than a temporary reduction in required debt funding of the same amount. ..
3...Stocks are valued on the balance sheet at around
$ 200 million ....would it be possible to change the funding arrangements to only pay for the goods when they were consumed rather than purchased, so in effect the supplier funds NMC stocks rather than NMC (may be difficult to achieve but worth a try...)
4.....Suspending dividends would save $21 million per annum...
5...Finally have a rights issue if necessary to rebalance equity with debt. .the business and profits have increased substantially since 2014 but shareholdings haven't ...it would be justified to increase share holdings to allow future growth to resume
All of this might appear troublesome but what other options are there for equity shareholders if a fire sale is to be avoided.... In my view , this remains a strong long term business which just needs a restructuring of its finances....
It seems to me that NMC has endured the perfect storm ever since it reached its peak in August 2018 at a price of around £43 ..since then it's share price has fallen to coincide with the following events..
1...It anounced it wasn't seeking to widen it's footprint in India...the price began to decline..
2...October 2018 to March 2019. It too experienced the wide correction in stock markets which hit it much harder than other companies until by end March it had fallen by nearly 50 % to £23
3...Excellent set of annual results published end of March sent price back up to £29 by end of April.
4...Slow decline to end of July then a large decline during August to £18 for no "apparent" reason prompting an RNS saying that there was no reason for decline..
5...Excellent set of interims end of August which sent share price back up to £29 by end of September..
6...Further gradual decline into December ...board announced £90 million buy back of bonds on 16th December , just days before MW report on 20th December prompting a 50 % fall in share price to £13..
7...NMC strongly denied contents, mounted a defiant defence and share price recovered to £18 by Christmas .
8.From January onwards the storm clouds gathered pace with governance issues, sackings , and finally the part findings of the Freeh report drawing attention to potential financial irregularities..
The shares were suspended on 27/28th Feb at £9.38 with further reports that some staff hadnt been paid, making the reality check complete...
So what happens now...?
Owlo....thanks for that ...I will check that one out...