Member Info for alwayswrong

Thanks Eccles, that explains things...it also explains presumably why the share price has headed slowly south over the past few years...more competition now perhaps ?

Osaka..I sold earlier today at a loss.. I got fearful after watching Covid taking a slow motion scenic route to a full lockdown , but this time without the social security net of 80% furlough etc. to cushion the impact..

Tacly ..thanks for an excellent piece of analysis...this is a share that baffles me because the share price doesn't match the fundamentals and the safe dividends on offer . I think it has more to do with the stock market in general which is in retreat, and an outgoing tide lowers all boats.. The tide will come back in once Covid is conquered...I exited yesterday because I think the share price despite the fundamentals is heading downwards.

I have to agree with you freedom...I still believe in the longer term fundamentals with this stock but short term I can see a sell off.. we are taking the scenic route to a virtually full lockdown ...I exited at 55p...no profit just break even. . I might well re-enter if I get a good opportunity before the release of the half year results...NRR are always positive in their news releases so may seek to capitalise on that if the entry price is right.. I should once again emphasise that what I am doing is a short term trading transaction...time will tell if I timed it right or wrong ..

Hi Son's..I was making two points really, the first was about trying to make the black lives matter campaign more inclusive.. the second was about the equality of women. . women dominate the top 20 or so charity boards but black women are barely represented at all within this sector of the economy ..the biggest area of under representation of female BAME is of course the NHS...I can count the number of BAME nurses that I have been treated by who have reached sister level on the fingers of one hand , even though they all possess the same qualifications.. I went out with a BAME nurse who had a first class degree who was still a nurse. . when I asked her if she was angry about this she just said with reluctant acceptance that 'thats just the way it is". This isn't the same at GP/Consultant level thank god . Regarding nurses you only have to look at the NMC trustees , (although admittedly I am talking several years ago now ) I can't remember seeing a BAME trustee there representing general nursing (500,000 nurses) although I could be wrong . I certainly can't remember seeing any BAME midwives and health visitor trustees.
Regarding the media , my point was aimed at women mainly .the female cricket commentators were all BAME but women dominating both male and female cricket presenters ? I find that just the opposite of how it used to be .

What the hell is happening to the share price ?

What is happening to the share price.??..I would have thought that the share price should rise because further lockdowns are coming , traffic on the roads will decrease and therefore (you would think) so would claims but car owners still need car insurance .

Several companies pay variable 'special' dividends where profits can go up and down with no predictable pattern...it happens with DLG because profits depend on claims which can vary quite significantly from year to year ..they get around this by having a much smaller baseline dividend which is 'progressive' accompanied by a special dividend which doesn't tie them down in future years.

Interesting divergence of opinions..I have a few comments..on the Black lives matter campaign , I think one three letter word is missing and that word is "too" because I think that statement "black lives matter too" would engage with everyone.
Regarding equality of men and women...I worked on charity boards for 20 years where most of the directors were women , but ALL white. Take a look at BBC News, most presenters are female attractive and talk with a posh voice ...also look at who they go to for their contributions from external quangos , mostly white posh speaking women with book-cases in the background. (just look at their titles..they are CEO's of completely unknown organisations with no real purpose providing a lucrative career for usually ex public school women all at taxpayer expense.. I don't only include women in this , the men are the same .
However, look at cricket commentators , women are taking over that now.. I saw Michael Vaughan and other ex England male cricketers playing second fiddle to ex women cricketers...so watch female cricket and the same pattern emerges...all female commentators. Women have already won the equality battle and in all aspects of the media male chauvinism is quickly being replaced with female chauvinism..both are wrong ..

I was there with you with NMC and by some miracle I managed to get out literally the day before...it was around £25k.. I don't like shorters normally but Muddy waters saved me a fortune on that occasion with their report

That's a very good point Serependity about liquidating their assets at almost full value .in effect if I read it right they will be selling around £70 million of their assets at only a 3% discount ...I wouldn't be opposed to to them selling ALL of their remaining assets at up to a 20% discount (good and bad combined) because on liquidating the company we would then each receive about £1.25 per share...a very healthy profit from where we stand now .

Asset sales are a zero sum game...yes they reduce LTV but they also reduce net income and by definition dividends...selling those assets at a discount implies a reluctant sale..unless they use the proceeds to buy back 60 million shares...I doubt they will do that .

Thanks Hawfinch...I will take a look at that ..

Edwina...yes I have spoken about the trading aspect of this share.

I do understand what you say when you talk about there being one or two distressed sellers suppressing the price and this providing opportunities to manipulate the share price downwards ..and that this will only come to an end when the distressed sellers have finally relinquished all of their holdings (I have previously observed and commented on Norge Bank seeking to liquidate their holdings .).

My ignorance is on the market mechanics underpinning this, and the trading evidence that this is being manipulated downwards .. I tried to understand your explanation but fell at the first hurdle when you spoke of level 2 ..what is level 2 ? I am inclined to just read your conclusions on what is happening on the trading side and not worrying too much about how you arrived at them. My attention is focused on the fundamental aspects of the company which is something that I understand a little more about.

Two further things of note... 20 million shares changed hands on Friday ...does this imply the reset button has now been pressed and things can return back to normal? .... The recent build up of the shorting position by Millenium was liquidated completely on Friday ...they clearly made a rapid stealth move in and out in just 7 days and presumably think that the sustained decline in share price is now over..

We shall see...how do you see it ?

Don't panic Mr Mannering !!

The problems NRR is experiencing can be summarised in one word... COVID.. None of the temporary problems (because that is what they are) can be laid at the door of management which is so important ..

NRR won't go bust because of Asset write-downs no matter how large based on likely scenarios in play...it will only go bust if it runs out of cash and lending facilities.. period..

£87 million cash currently in bank, £45 million in undrawn roll over debt facilities, £80-£100 million in assets sales and also £50 million in a special government Covid government lending facility. I make that over £250 million.. i.e. three years with no income .. that ignores that they could sell even more assets and just swallow any losses on them ..naturally covenants come into play ...but these are likely to be temporarily waived based on the extraordinary events taking pkace...besides, I think that it's highly unlikely that with current cash and planned disposals, that any more lending beyond what we have at the moment will be required.

COVID vaccine could be available in March ..let's say September .. once news of a roll out programme is announced the share price will rocket and optimism will return to asset value...remember that assets can be revalued higher as well as lower ...this in my view is what will happen within about 18 months..

One thing to remember is that the whole world is working on a solution which is conducive to NRR getting through this. Compare this to a company such as Amigo which is disliked even detested by anyone who knows what they do and especially the FCA ,who incidentally, are also on our side with the pubs sector and business interruption insurance.. my only regret is that I jumped in too soon ..

Don't panic..just batten down the hatches for now...

The situation isn't critical yet but certain actions are in my view necessary ...more maybe necessary later, depending on the length and severity of the disruption caused by the Corona virus .

What I think they should do to begin with is :

1...announce an intention to buy back 10% of the companies shares (30 million but hold them in treasury) alongside a statement declaring an intention to buy back more at a later date if deemed appropriate . The impact of this will be to prop up the share price by reducing the number of shares in circulation and at today's share price will only cost around £15-20 million to do ..it should also flush out the 'shorters' and sooner rather than later ...this action is also a way to increase shareholder value in lieu of not paying a dividend..
2..Continue with the plan to dispose of £100 million of assets and use the remaining approx £80-85 million to reduce debt...and LTV

If bad times remain then further actions and asset sales will become necessary , conversely if good times return then they can reissue the 30 million shares, at hopefully a much higher price, and invest the proceeds to resume growing the business but in a capital light way , which is what they were aiming to do anyway ...

Now what to do with the pubs ?? Think I need to pour myself a drink before I answer that one...

With regard to the likely losses in net revenue caused by the Corona virus , I think they will just have to take it on the chin for now, in the knowledge that they have £83 million in cash.. I have calculated though that even if they lose 50% of net revenue they will still manage to break even on a UFFO basis although no dividend will be paid..

Hawfinch...so long-winded I was timed out...anyway what I concluded was that ultimately we hold different points of view but I do agree with many of the points you made.

Hawfinch...my response to your points in reverse..

3...Yes we are both agreed in the merits of the Muddy Waters report , although don't be fooled that they notified other shareholders of this out of moral intent.. they did it to spark a flood of selling which they could then buy back into.. but as I said the end result for me in that particular instance was to help me avoid around £20k in losses...and yes this is a very powerful argument in favour of shorting
2. Not sure the example you gave was a good one in that borrowing shares to sell them on is quite different to banks relending out their clients money using the multiplier effect of MLR's and this is because of risk...individuals holding cash (up to £85k) are exposed no risk whatsoever, no matter what the bank or other institution does with it..it also attracts an (albeit marginal) income return from interest . Them lending out your shares does carry risk..
1..this is the point that I find most difficulty with which might be due to my ignorance but my response is as follows :
(a) absolutely agree that they take a hell of a risk shorting a share due to them being exposed to losses far in excess of their original stake...this is why I monitor shorts and why with NRR in particular, I am worried about Millenium Partners slowly building up a short position.. this is evident of the fact that they think the share price could fall to maybe 20 pence or so ...but it's the action of them selling off those shares at well timed intervals which causes the price to fall further (or prevent them from rising) which makes other investors throw in their hand and sell up...the end result being that the share price falls further and further and the pace at which it happens increases and they then discreetly buy back the shares, give them back to the institution they borrowed them from and then profiting from the fall that they helped to create in the first place if that makes sense. This is why I don't understand why any institution would lend out its shares in the first place..
(b). I am not sure I understand why you assert that the system is biased towards buying ...I think it should be shouldn't it ? .the ultimate aim of the LSE is to provide a platform to invest in companies which enables them to grow such as.Unilever, Diaego..etc...and for you to share in that wealth creation
The liquidity required doesn't need 'shorts' it's provided by market makers who take their cut by the difference in the buy/sell spot price ..
(c) the larger pension funds just buy into the largest companies...the shares of these companies arent shorted or need to be, to make the system of exchange function properly ..
(d). My overall belief is that progressive wealth is made possible by people holding 'long' positions rather than 'short' ones...ultimately if you don't like a share don't buy it ..or if you are already holding it then sell it..

Long winded I know but I suppose in the end we have different points of

21 million shares ( 7% ) of entire share capital including 13 million shares ( 4.3% ) of share capital in 2 separate sell transactions registered after closing time at 46.05 pence. Unbelievably I couldn't get instant dealing quotes to buy just 15,000 shares...I reduced down to 5000 an still couldn't buy.. In the end I put an order in which did go through..earlier, I put in a fake sell instant quote for 15,000 and got a price straight away.. i.wish I knew enough about trading to understand what was going on

Trading on this scale in this share hasnt been seen since the height of the pandemic..

Norges Bank only hold 2.5%. So could be either
JP Morgan ...who hold 6.2%
M&G who hold 5.8%
Integra who hold 3.0%
Norges Bank who hold 2.6%

Or maybe it was a huge short, but conversely who was the buyer. ? Interesting to note that all major brewers closed the day in surplus ..(Marston's by over 6%) ..yet all breweries were in deep negative territory up until midday..

Could these huge share transactions signal a watershed moment for NRR ?? I have no idea but I took advantage of the steep falls and added to my position ..

Yes...no more director purchases...well it's a sobering thought that anyone who has ever ever bought shares in this company and held them has lost money .
The directors are remaining silent at the moment.

Of course things can change very quickly ..