Member Info for alwayswrong

Hawfinch....well I am beginning to think my instincts wouldn't keep me alive for long . This is in free fall..
I do think it will bounce back I just wish that I hadn't jumped in so early.

Freedom...could be because Norge's Bank has reduced it's holdings from 3 % to 2.5 % and it doesn't take much volume to make a huge change in the share price.
I think I jumped in too soon as this share is clearly in a gathering pace downward trend ..
I think it may be due to ever increasing loan to valuations ratio ...looking at their risk assessment they appear to be pencilling in further downward asset valuations even greater than the £166k booked last year. That would be disastrous.
Thing is though that most of their clients are now trading and pubs open so why the pessimism in the markets ...could it be because of the looming second wave in Corona virus cases and renewed lockdowns but without further government help this time ...worrying weeks and months ahead...

Lukee....I think you are right...they base their dividends in the Underlying Funds from Operations which ignore asset movements for the reasons you have described.
The underlying funds from Operations last year was £52 million or 18.1 pence and made dividends of 16.2 pence equivalent to 90 % of cash profits ...to qualify as an REIT they must pay at least 90 % of their cash profits as dividends ..
What this means is that this year they will still have to pay a dividend if they make an underlying cash profit..i.e. ignoring and asset write-downs. .it's too early to say yet if they will..

I bought in at 60p and will now wait patiently for the inevitable turnaround...this company is way undervalued ..examine their strategy ..sell low yielding assets and reinvest proceeds into high yielding assets .
Lots of liquidity so will survive the worsf case scenario with Covid...one day , hopefully soon Covid will be treatable and this company will fly , offering massive yields on current 60p share price .
My instinct was to buy...follow your instinct .. ..

Dogger....this table was for the benefit of the 25 people who took part...not for the one trol on the touch line who didn't ..this board isn't all about you...oh , and I am not your pal...

Here is the final league table for all to see...it is interesting to note that despite the all share index having fallen 27 % since the start of the competition, the top 5 champions League positions all made money ...with DEV which finished 4th gaining 20% on the final day !

The full table is shown below :

1...CHEEZY......FARN..... + 116.3 %
2....MORNG.... NCYT..... + 55.0
3....STAN....... INDV...... +. 26.6
4..JOHN747... DEV..... +. 3.1
5.. SWG....... GGP....... +. 1.6

6..DANNY..... HL........ -. 15.5
7.. CHAS...... KAPE...... -. 16.4
8.. ADZY...... FXPO..... -. 20.8
9...T'TREE...... CWR...... - 21.1
10..VAL....... VRS........ - 22.8
11..HEIMER.....PPS....... - 24.3
12..TINAT...... IMB......... -. 29.3
13.SPECIAL1... BLDP...... -. 32.2
14..DANA...... TXP......... -. 36.8
15..AQUE...... HUR........ -. 38.0
16..PROPS..... BIRD...... - 41.4
17.CAST'WAY....BOD...... -. 50.5
18..CB1234........IQE...... -. 51.3
19.. PEARLS..... SGI...... -. 51.7
20... HERESH... STAF..... -. 59.1
21.... MONEY...... UOG.... -. 62.7
22... ALTO....... WMH..... -. 62.8
23... MARK..... KEFI..... -. 65.1
24... MORNG..... KAT..... -. 67.8
25... SHEZR...... FINBLR. .. SUSP

So there you have it the final league table ..

The benchmark FTSE all share lost 27 % during the competition...so you can all see how you performed against the benchmark..

My sincere congratulations go to CHEEZY who selected the winner , but well done also to MORNG who finished runner up after leading for so long ...incidentally if he had kept his selection (NCYT) on the table throughout, instead of closing his position after 2 weeks, he would have won the competition with a 210 % profit. !!

My thanks to all who took part...

I have been saddened to hear of your individual upsetting stories of what it has meant to you financially, by placing your trust in Shetty and your reliance on the rigour of the LSE...which lets face it wouldn't get a stall to trade in a pub car park let alone Paternosta Square in London..
Anyway and even though it feels like a damp squid in the process , I did hold an alternative shares competition and I did promise to update the league table for everyone, every week until the end of the competition at the end of March..
Well here we are at the end of March and I am posting the final league table in my next message for all to see.

Back on Valentine's Day , I launched a competition to see who could choose their favourite alternative share to make the most gains by the end of March..

Well what a 6 week period !!...little did I know what was about to unfold...during that period the ALL SHARE INDEX has lost 27 % of its value...despite this some shares have navigated the crash very well, and several have actually prospered...

Over the weekend I will publish the final table so stay tuned...there were 25 entrants...let's see where you came in the competition...

I agree this has the potential to go beyond the 2008 collapse...but turning one moment to the alternative shares , there have been a handful which have weathered this particular storm very well and some have even made handsome profits from it ..

1..Probably the most consistent share has been Faron Pharmaceuticals....picked by Cheezy from the outset when it was £2.15 ..at the end of last week it jumped to £4.00 giving a nice 86 % profit....!! Incidentally today it has jumped another 15 % and now stands at £4.60 which means that it has now gained 114 % since Feb 14th while the all share index has fallen by 34 %

2.. Another consistent performer has been NCYT.. where Mornington closed out his position at 80 pence for a 55% gain....he closed the position too early...it has made a further gain of 37 % today and is now priced at £1.68 so if he had held on then his gain would have been a massive 205 % !!

3..The third consistent performer has been INDV which was selected by STAN....although nowhere near the other two , it has consistently weathered the storm of this crash and has made a handy gain of 13 % since 14th Feb when the crash began..

Yes the market is dire and the prospects look bleak but some shares have held up well , and some have prospered greatly as can be seen ..

I agree that now though is the time to stock up on dividend paying shares..I am going for mining stocks , which are currently priced so low , that their dividends are really high.....my favourite one is Ferrrexpo because of its focused offering plus an incredibly strong Balance Sheet and financial performance for 2019 which has slipped through the radar..the only bummer with this share is the 35 % withholding tax on dividends !!

The other mining share I like is Kaz , but I also have money in BHP and Rio Tinto...you need to be calm about the erratic movements in the share price though as they go up and down very steeply and suddenly , making them prime candidates to trade.. the pattern seems to be ...

1. Buy Monday morning at low opening price

2.Sell Tuesday afternoon at high price.

3.Stay out Wednesday and Thursday until late afternoon

4.Buy back in late Thursday afternoon and sell late Friday afternoon ...

Rinse and repeat !

This is my contribution anyway ...but you plough your own furrow...!!

Ok folks, here is the latest table on this penultimate week of the competition...the most eye catching news is that the long time leader Mornington who selected NCYT as his alternative share, has been overtaken by Cheezy who selected Faron Chemicals (FARN)
The full league table is as follows :

1...CHEEZY...... FARN..... + 86.0 %
2...MORNG.... NCYT.. + 55.0
3.. STAN....... INDV .... + 13.5
4....ADZY........ FXPO.... - 11.8
5... DANNY..... H.L. ... - 13.0
6. . JOHN747... DEV..... - 20.3
7... CHAS..... KAPE.... - 21.3
8.... SWG...... GGP..... - 22.3
9.....HEIMER.... PPS..... - 28.4
10... TINAT...... IMB.... - 30.1
11.. SPEC ONE.. BLDP... - 30.5
12..AQUE......... HUR... - 30.8
13.. T'TREE... CWR.... - 33.6
14... DANA...... TXP...... - 42.8
15... C'WAY...... BOD... - 47.4
16... PEARLS... SGI..... - 49.2
17... PROPS.... BIRD... - 53.7
18.... HERESH.. STAF... - 57.7
19... VAL..... VRS... - 58.6
20... CB1234.... IQE. .. - 62.8
21... MARK..... KEFI .. - 62.9
22... MONEY.... UOG... - 63.3
23... MORNG.... KAT... - 69.0
24... ALTO...... WMH... - 76.9
25... SHEZR... FINAB... - 84.6

For those of you who are still interested I will post the penultimate week's alternative shares league table later today.

This competition began on 17th February ( before the crash ) so it is interesting (or at least I think it is) to see how crash proof people's share selections have turned out to be..

Ok..I am not sure there is much appetite for this due to the circumstances we find ourselves in but I agreed to publish the results of this competition until 27th March, when the final winner would be announced..

The league table as it stands as at Friday 13th March is as follows :

1....MORNG.... . NCY.... + 55 %. (Position closed )
2... CHEEZY..... FARN... + 14.0
3....STAN.... INDV...... +. 0.1
4... HEIMER . PPS...... - 17.6
5... DANNY. HL.... - 17.8
6... JOHN 747.... DEV..... - 18.7
7....DANA....... TXP..... - 21.0
8... SWG....... GGP..... - 21 8
9... T'TREEE. CWR..... -22.0
10...ADZY..........FXPO. .. - 25.0
11...TINA'T.... IMB...... - - 25.7
12.SPECIAL1.... BLDP... - 27.3
13... CHAS... KAPE.... - 29.6
14.. HERESH. STAF..... -30.8
15.. PEARLS. . SGI.... - 33.3
16.. C'WAY.... BOD... - 40.0
17... PROPS... BIRD... - 40.0
18.. VAL...... VRS.... - 45.1
19.... AQUE.. HUR... - 45.3
20... CB1234 .. IQE. ... - 45.5
21... ALTO..... WMH. - 48.8
22.... MARK... KEFI... - 53.1
23... MORNG... KAT... - 54.0
23.. MONEY... UOG.. - 54.0
25....SHEZR..... FIN... - 83.7

FTSE ALL SHARE INDEX..... -27.6 %
Observations...
1... Only 3 people chose companies which have made a positive return.
2...Just under half (12) people have beaten the benchmark FTSE all share index over this period
3... Spare a further thought for investors in Shetty's other company 'Finablr' which has lost 83.7 % of its value since Valentine's day...

Well chaps now that it would appear that all is lost here , then it might be appropriate to look at the other shares that participants on this board favoured and their performance since Valentine's Day ..when the current market turmoil began..
There is only one week to go and I will publish the current league table tonight .
It's well worth a look to see how everyone's shares have weathered the turmoil ..

I couldn't agree with you more ..buy quality with a good dividend yield.
Incidentally , the Tullow price earlier dropped to 10 pence...now it's 17 pence ...if those who lost a lot of money could have got in and out at those prices then you could have made a killing..problem is the market seems to be frozen for trading ...

With the bloodbath in UK stocks expected to happen based on futures trading night NMC be in a temporary safe haven ?

Rastuss.. even though the hospitals each make a profit in their own right, the profit wasn't sufficient to pay for the next medical facility they purchased , so they had to take out a loan for it.., there are only a certain amount of times you can do that before your loan funding sources dry up which they did....leaving insufficirnt funds to pay all the day to expenses even the wages for front line staff which demonstrates just how desperate the situation became...

They now have to sell of some of these assets to realise the cash for them, or obtain more equity funding or both.. Of course if a cash buyer emerges with pockets deep enough to settle all outstanding debts and compensate equity holders sufficiently .then this might be the best outcome for all concerned..

LB28....Well you could be right there about accountants making crap investors , based on my recent investment decisions..!! Since I left Amigo , the three shares j have chosen to invest in have all lost money, including NMC

I will continue to hold though and time will tell..

Here's Hopin...yet another keyboard warrior. Go play World of Warcraft.....Filtered !

Calamari...
Regarding how much cash and debt there actually is, this will actually be the final thing to be reconciled and signed off , because if you think about it, everything ultimately comes back to cash and debt in the end ,(think of your own finances ) so it appears as if they have yet to discover their true income expenditure assets and liabilities..

Rastuss...regarding a potential sale of whole or in part, they are buying earnings...and the assets will be what they pay for those earnings...the true value of the assets generating those earnings will be capitalised as assets and the remainder would be capitalised as goodwill..Ultimately they are seeking at least their cut off return rate on their bid price ...so the price discounted for risk, night be around 10 times those earnings..

It's worth being mindful that a discounted price for these assets and earnings would be much better than no price..the 'half a loaf is better than none' principle which would appear to be appropriately suitable here...

Rastuss...regarding lack of cash in the bank and increased bank loans, the problem has clearly arisen because they have been growing and acquiring new business at a far greater rate than their growth in profits.

The cost of these acquisitions had to be funded from somewhere , so they kept borrowing more and more money , until they have reached the point where they are all borrowed out...simple as, because it is now apparent that the banks will not lend any more money. This is presumably linked to the uncertainties surrounding the ownership of shares, irregularities regarding their accounts, and further exacerbated by Moody's downgrading their credit rating with notice given of a possible future downgeade to come ..

In my opinion the two most likely outcomes, which are not mutually exclusive are :
1...Sale of the whole or a sizeable chunk of the business to a cash rich buyer .
2...Rights issue ...

Again let's just wait and see...